FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000563495&play=1

FYI: Here’s another chart to scare you this Halloween: Foreign investors, who now represent 39 percent of funds dedicated to the U.S. high-yield fixed-income market, have become ever-more sensitive to the asset class’s performance since the financial crisis.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/bond-tourists-expose-soft-underbelly-of-america-s-high-yield-market

@Ted Ha! just coming here to post this one, ya beat me by the proverbial nose.

In the second quarter, that group of seven saw $34 billion in outflows. The tally is further evidence that investors, frustrated with high fees and mediocre performance of actively managed funds, are increasingly casting them off for low-cost passive investments. In the 12 months ended Sept. 30, active funds had redemptions of $295 billion while passive took in $454 billion ...

12 months, almost $300B--- that's some serious coin.

FYI: Seven top asset managers this week reported a total of $50 billion in third-quarter net redemptions, most of it from active funds, company filings show. The biggest losers: Franklin Resources Inc. with $22.1 billion, AllianceBernstein with $15.3 billion and Waddell & Reed Financial Inc. at $4.9 billion.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/asset-managers-bleed-50-billion-as-industry-crisis-deepens

I've made this point before. Trailing 1-, 3-, 5-, pick a number-year returns are absolutely worthless. Investors fixate on them way too much and lose sight of the bigger picture - it's why we get in and out of the market and good managers at precisely the wrong times.

If you really think there is a bond bubble, what should a 76yo retiree do if their AA is 37% stocks,17% cash,% 46 bonds? Add more cash or stocks? Or do nothing? Assumes SS and RMDs cover current fixed costs.
Any and all thoughts welcome.

bee said, "Is TROW a good buy or is PRWCX about to correct?"
@bee Wouldn't touch your question with a 10 foot pole - make that 15' :)
Here's a link back to TRP about the $194M write-off they took back in June after botching a proxy vote on Dell. https://www3.troweprice.com/usis/corporate/en/press/t--rowe-price-to-compensate-clients-for-dell-voting-error.html This received a lot of press (mostly favorable) back in June and was broadly lauded as testament to the firm's integrity and shareholder commitment. (I don't recall any discussion here.) But I'd imagine it impacted their share price. The WSJ appears to have more on this - but I have trouble reading it without a subscription, so didn't link them.
PRWCX, BTW, isn't having a particularly good year after several great ones. Manager has become very cautious on the market and is no doubt dealing with bloat - though it's now closed to new investors. If one wanted to have some fun with play money (assuming he/she held a favorable opinion of the firm) he might invest 50/50 in both the company and PRWCX and than rebalance periodically.
The future of T. Rowe? It's tough out there. They're small-fry compared to Vanguard, Blackrock and a few other giants. There's been a shift from actively managed funds to low cost passive funds and ETFs going on for many years now and I see no signs of it abating. Over the past year, if my reading of Barrons serves me well, Price experienced net outflows - though not as severe as Oppenheimer and some other active managers. I'd expect continued shrinkage or consolidation among companies in their segment of the market.
---
PS: Asset managers are to an extent subject to the whims of the markets. In a sharply declining equity market AUMs fall - reducing profits. This interplay between investors' and advisors' outlooks for equity markets and the re-pricing of asset managers like Price is far too complex for my feeble mind to understand. But it's not inconceivable that (future) market expectations are impacting TROW's valuation. (PRWCX would be expected to hold up better during a sharp correction than TROW.)

Interesting... the stock price of TROW is trading at its lowest price in over a year. In fact, you have to go back to its 4 year low (Sept 2012) to match today's stock price. The stock is up 36% over the last ten years which included the 2009 great-cession.

Over the past 10 years TROW has more often out performed PRWCX, but that is not the case over the past year and half. (TROW in Yellow). Is TROW a good buy or is PRWCX about to correct?

Here's the most recent three performance of the two:

FYI: Investors are constantly reminded to not base future investments on past returns, but the fact that most still do could provide a boost for the markets, according to Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co.
With the volatile summer of 2011 having rolled off the five-year trailing performance calculations, Mr. Kleintop is expecting investors to feel better about putting more money to work in the markets.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161027/FREE/161029918?template=printart

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
Giant money manager T. Rowe Price Group Inc. reported better earnings and mutual fund performance during the third quarter. Yet clients still pulled some money from the firm’s actively managed stock funds.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=T.+Rowe+Price+Profit+Rises+18%+wsj

Hi Guys,
I sure don't pay as much attention to near term market trends, either stock or bond, as many MFO board participants do. That's my bad. There's both a plus and a minus aspect to my lazy behavior.
I often entirely miss the nuances and other market signals that you guys see. Perhaps that's happening when interpreting the bond data chart that DanHardy referenced. I'm not too exercised by it because of the scant statistical data that supports the argument. There's not much there.
Equity market reactions to interest rate changes is very complex. Depending on a wide variety of specific market and economic conditions near the time of the interest rate change, the equity marketplace has reacted in wildly different ways. Here is a Link to a TIAA study that explores this issue:
https://www.tiaa.org/public/pdf/C25594_Impact_rising_interest_rates.pdf
From a statistical perspective, nothing is firmly established. One expert's guesstimate just about equals another expert's projection. We seem to want to read more into most data than really exists. In that sense, I'm in Hank's ballpark.
Here is another Link that examines equity market behavior after a Fed interest rate change on a case-by-case basis:
http://www.seeitmarket.com/what-history-says-about-fed-rate-hike-cycles-and-stocks-15005/2/
Again, the equity market reactions are very divergent and situation dependent. As always, we get to choose our own poison. In my case, I am lightening up on equities, but that is age related and not influenced by the initial reference's main chart.
I hope you find these other Links useful in your decision making process.
Best Wishes.

That's a really great spreadsheet. (I don't have DFA accounts, but I was curious.)
You can put in your tax rates (LT, ST, qualified) and number of shares, and it tells you your estimated taxes for the December and for the 2016 total distributions. It would be nice if other fund companies did something like this.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1618737/000089418916012529/oaktree-emerging_497e.htm
497 1 oaktree-emerging_497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
Oaktree Funds
Oaktree Emerging Markets Equity Fund
Supplement dated October 26, 2016 to the Prospectus dated February 29, 2016 (as amended April 11, 2016) and Statement of Additional Information dated February 29, 2016
The Oaktree Emerging Markets Equity Fund (the “Fund”) was liquidated on October 26, 2016. Accordingly, all references and information relating to the Fund in the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information are hereby deleted.
Please retain this Supplement for future reference.

EM bonds:
FNMIX...... 10 year performance: +7.85%
PREMX: +6.87%.
Small-cap Value: TRP (PRSVX:) +6.92%
PRDGX (TRP LC Div. Growth:) +7.3%
Balanced: PRWCX: +8.16%
MAPOX: +6.81%
Global Bonds: PRSNX: (5 years) +4.94%. Too young for a 10-year number. By the way, MAINX will be 5 years old, soon. I no longer own it. But it looks good.

FYI: Assets of U.S. money market funds that own only government securities jumped in the latest week since the final phase of industry reform went into effect nearly two weeks ago, the Money Fund Report said on Wednesday.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.reuters.com/article/funds-imoneynet-idUSL1N1CW1PM
iMoneynet:
http://www.imoneynet.com/

According to the latest SPIVA US Mid-Year report, over the past 10 years (includes 2008 downdraft) 81.94% and 81.82% of actively managed EM equity and EM bond funds, respectively, were outperformed by their benchmark indices.
Also, as I see it, many of the actively managed EM equity funds that have outperformed the indices, tend to have done so over relatively short time periods (BEXFX - since 2010, SIGIX - since 2012), and have a significantly different average market cap (SIGIX) and EM stock exposure (SIGIX) than the comparison benchmark.
SPIVA
Kevin

Jeremy Siegel's research paper challenges the CAPE approach to forecasting returns:
Link to his paper:
The Shiller CAPE Ratio:A New Look by Jeremy J. Siegel

Hi Guys,
Please don't overreact to this headline. It is only a forecast made by the Reseach Affiliates outfit. Maybe they're prescient, but maybe not.
The Reseach Affiliates forecast is grounded on the assumption that a regression-to-the-mean of the CAPE ratio is imminent and will take that ratio to below or near below its historical average. That's possible, but is it likely? I surely do not know.
The Research Affiliates are saying that the CAPE downward adjustment will be so dramatic that it almost totally neutralizes the positive inputs of demographic growth and productvity growth in the US marketplace. Their prediction is that US equities would be marginally positive in this next 10-year cycle and small US equities ( Russell 2000 ) would deliver zero positive inputs. Meanwhile foreign markets will produce positive rewards that exceed their historical averages.
I fail to see this major disconnect between the US and foreign markets, especially with emerging markets. Our economies are just too intertwined. Although we now have a lower percentage of the world markets, we are still the dominant player. If we sneeze, foreigners will catch a cold.
I interpret the Research Affiliates projection with more than a few grains of salt. For the most part, forecasters accuracy records are miserable. As usual, buyer beware.
Best Wishes.

John, I got into the Schwab-robo in April, 2015. duranal sounds like he or she did a nice comparison to help him choose. Me, I already had my IRA at Schwab so I wasn't going to open another account when it was so easy to click some buttons in my existing account to make it happen. Couple comments off the top of my head:
- the Schwab questionnaire that is meant to look at your age and risk tolerance in order to place you at the "appropriate" equity weighting was annoying. I wanted this to be a 60% equity weighted portfolio, but after answering the questions it had me less than 50%. The local Schwab financial adviser I work with didn't like the system either, so we decided to just fudge the answers until we got the mix I wanted. I opened my account the 1st week the Intelligent portfolio was introduced, so maybe they changed that aspect.
- I don't really mind the cash element. A lot of articles I read at the start didn't like the idea, but I saw it as a buffer that could play out better than bonds over the next few years. My cash portion is 10%.
- the portfolio is weighted heavier than I would have expected international and EM. That did not fair well mid-way through 2015 and I questioned the move when returns faltered. Since then returns have been good to very good in my opinion. My portfolio is up 9.84% YTD and about 5.7% over 1 year.
- I also liked the idea of investing in a diversified portfolio where someone else is watching diversification, balancing and reinvesting the dividends. With it, there is never the erg to buy the new hot fund or move things around at just the wrong time (which I was pretty good at).
- I didn't turn my entire IRA into the robo. I did 1/2. I still like the challenge of building my own portfolio and watching the results. If anything, the robo process has taught me build it, watch it but don't tinker. I believe everything I've read now about investors shooting themselves in the foot trying to out think the system is true. Most of us lose money doing this.
Good luck with your decision.

FYI: It doesn’t seem like much to ask for—a 5 percent return. But the odds of making even that on traditional investments in the next 10 years are slim, according to a new report from investment advisory firm Research Affiliates.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2016-10-26/the-next-10-years-will-be-ugly-for-your-401-k