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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Stagflation - "This Economic Paradox Nearly Took Down Three Presidents.."
    "Of course there's no guarantee that things would line up the same way now."
    This is what economist nobel prize Krugman said (https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055)
    370 economists said the following in 11/2016 too
    (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/01/370-top-economists-publish-scathing-letter-against-dangerous-destructive-trump.html)
    Nice article, but no solutions in sight.
    How many presidents/Gov promised to cut Gov spending and employees and make commerce fairer for Americans? Plenty, and none delivered.
    The closest one for generic solutions in my lifetime was Clinton, and why I voted twice for him. It can be done if both parties negotiate it and come up with compromise solutions. It's gone a long time ago, both parties and their supporters would not compromise.
    Obama initiated Bowles-Simson. The results were good, IMO. Obama shelved it. Read (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Commission_on_Fiscal_Responsibility_and_Reform)
    Angry posts will not change it.
  • Chemical Industry Asks Trump for Exemption From Pollution Limits
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The New York Times:
    The Biden-era limits were designed to reduce emissions of toxic pollutants, including a cancer-causing ingredient used in antifreeze and plastics.
    Two chemical industry groups are asking President Trump for a complete exemption to free their factories from new limits on hazardous air pollution. Under a new rule finalized by the Biden administration last year, chemical plants would soon be required to monitor and reduce emissions of toxic pollutants, like ethylene oxide, a cancer-causing ingredient used in antifreeze and plastics.
    Now the two groups, the American Chemistry Council and the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, which represent the nation’s major chemical companies, are seeking a temporary presidential waiver for all polluters to the rule. The request came after the E.P.A. told companies last month that they could apply for waivers to major clean-air rules by emailing the agency. The E.P.A. pointed to a section of the Clean Air Act that enables the president to temporarily exempt industrial facilities from new rules if the technology required to meet those rules isn’t available, and if it’s in the interest of national security.
    Under Mr. Trump, the E.P.A. has moved to roll back many of the same rules. That could mean that companies granted a temporary exemption now would ultimately never have to comply with the new rules.
    The Biden-era rule had been part of that administration’s effort to address the disproportionate effect of environmental hazards facing communities near chemical plants. These are often low-income, predominantly Black or Latino neighborhoods with elevated rates of asthma, cancer and other health problems. It updates several regulations governing emissions from chemical plants, some of which have not been tightened in nearly 20 years, and applies to more than 200 chemical facilities across Texas and Louisiana, as well as the Ohio River Valley and West Virginia — all home to major chemical hubs.
    The rule had for the first time considered the cumulative effects of multiple chemical plants on communities in such hubs, rather than simply the effect of a single source of pollution. Companies would be required to rigorously tighten controls and processes to limit chemical emissions. They would also be required to monitor smokestacks and vents at the manufacturing facilities, while also checking whether chemicals are present at the property line of a plant. That kind of fence-line monitoring is similar to those required of petroleum refineries.
    But the chemical industry had raised various concerns about the new restrictions, particularly on ethylene oxide, saying it was used in a variety of products like batteries for electric vehicles. It also is essential to sterilizing medical equipment, according to the Food and Drug Administration. In a statement on Saturday, Chet Thompson, chief executive of American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, called the Biden-era rule “unlawful, unreasonable and technologically unachievable,” adding that it put “critical U.S. manufacturing operations at risk.”
    The latest move is part of an effort by the Trump administration to steer the E.P.A. away from its original role of environmental protection and regulation. Mr. Zeldin has described the agency’s new mission as lowering the cost of purchasing cars, heating homes and running businesses, as well as encouraging American energy dominance. Last month, the administration dropped a federal lawsuit against a chemical manufacturer accused of releasing high levels of chloroprene, a likely carcinogen, from a plant in Louisiana.
    The E.P.A. has said it plans to slash jobs, eliminate its scientific research arm and ensure that enforcement actions don’t interfere with energy production. It also aims to reduce the agency’s overall budget by 65 percent. The Trump administration has also placed former lobbyists and lawyers for the oil, gas and chemical industries in senior positions at the agency.

    Comment: This situation actually is not all that important, unless of course you happen to live near these chemical plant operations. If that should be the case, then the "ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL" option applies, so there's really no problem anyway.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Here’s what Fido’s analytics pulled up for me this morning.
    Domestic Stock 16%
    Foreign Stock 24%
    Bonds 26%
    Short Term 22%
    Other 11%
    After 2 days buying I’ve moved the equity position from 35% to 40%. The “other” remained stable at 11%. Most of that is in a real assets fund. Somewhat more aggressive than those numbers however, because a good chunk is in CEFs which employ leverage. Friday was my worst day in years, off 3.22% - slightly less than what PRWCX lost (- 3.37%).
    I’m not someone looking for positive annual returns. Willing to lose money over shorter periods (1-3 years) as long as I have confidence in what I own. I believe that over 3-5 years I’ll do better than cash. Investing entails risk. All the fund prospectuses tell you that. @Sven is correct that we’re all different in our needs, expectations, dispositions and past experiences.
    Question for the members: What do you think David Giroux was buying Friday?
  • Death-Crosses
    stillers
    @linter, thanks for your research and post, providing conclusive evidence of what most of us already knew, Teched1000 is a fraud.
    His reply, with two links to nowhere (sic) and his rambling psycho-babble post about general investment BS and references back to 2020 and 2022 (Say what?) are testament to it. You don't have to have 35+ years of audit experience to know that 500+ word responses about everything but the simple question that was posed/issue that was raised indicate, well, in technical accounting terms, bullshit.
    First, the 500+ words were my opinion about the markets. If you don't like it move on.
    Second, you just crossed the line by saying "fraud, sic, psycho-babble, general investment BS" and should be banned from this site.
    Third,I urged people to look at the links that were provided and see the truth.
    But wait, stillers, the seeker of truth posted under 4 different names on different sites.
    Karen/ Stillers / Arriba / Albie. Any respectable person uses the same one.
    The last name was Karen. He claimed that he was married to a financial advisor and then continued to post dozens of opinions that supposedly came from his husband while they were his own.
    When I revealed it and posted about it, he disappeared.
    image
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Everyone’s financial situation is different. We are near retirement and thus we stay conservative in our allocation. 65-70% are in bonds and cash while the remaining 30-35% in stocks. Don’t think this drawdown has playout completely and there are more downside in coming months. We will stay patient and collect generous dividends from bonds and cash. Will buy more T bills this weekend as others mature next week.
  • Stagflation - "This Economic Paradox Nearly Took Down Three Presidents.."
    What a comprehensive article.
    During that stagflation era, the S&P 500 was a net loser. Here's one "investment research" guy's piece on what worked and what didn't during that time; for stocks, "Overall, the 1970s was a lost decade for stock investors." Winners were Big Oil, commodities generally, real estate, precious metals, and some of the typical value stocks.
    Of course there's no guarantee that things would line up the same way now.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    My portfolio was at its balance point at the start 2025. It is now noticeably overweight in cash and bonds and noticeably underweight in broad based stock etfs and oefs. (In aggregate, my dividend focused individual stock investments look fine.) This new market era is only 2 1/2 months old. It's still too soon for this buy and hold guy to do anything. Maybe if the S&P 500 gets to be down by 20% I will take another look.
  • Stagflation - "This Economic Paradox Nearly Took Down Three Presidents.."
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/04/trump-stagflation-presidents-history-00270981
    This Economic Paradox Nearly Took Down Three Presidents. Is Donald Trump Next?
    ...."What made Ford, Carter and Reagan so similar was that stagflation was a problem that was visited upon them, owing largely to exogenous or structural developments they had scant ability to control. Trump’s looming stagflation crisis, on the other hand, is one of his own making. The public was hard enough on past presidents who failed to fix the problem. Time will tell how just harshly voters will appraise Trump for potentially creating it.
    Through aggressive tariffs and extreme cuts to the government workforce — as well as health, science and social service funding — Trump’s policies threaten to directly increase production costs and consumer prices, fueling inflation and almost guaranteeing that the Federal Reserve Board will keep interest rates high. Additionally, the resulting economic uncertainty discourages business investments and disrupts supply chains, which can stifle economic growth, setting the stage for higher unemployment.
    Why would anyone elect to do this? Trump maintains that, contrary to what most economists believe, it will reinvigorate American industry in his nationalist vision. But those around the president would do well to brush up on their 1970s history. It isn’t pretty. "
  • WealthTrack Show
    Apr 5, 2025 Episode:
    Retired Treasury bond manager Robert Kessler has always been skeptical of Wall Street’s “stocks for the long term” mantra. He explains why he is completely out of stocks in his personal portfolio—and why you should consider doing the same.
    “…it’s a huge, and usually fatal, mistake to design a portfolio without focusing primarily on those approximately 2% of times that will cause you to lose your nerve and violate Charlie Munger’s prime directive of compounding. As Munger, who is Warren Buffett’s partner, puts it: ‘The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.’
    …..holding plenty of safe assets—like dull, low-yielding Treasury securities—and being prepared to see your risky assets get periodically, and hopefully temporarily, slaughtered.”
    - William Bernstein


  • Death-Crosses
    A rare look at my account because of what was written about me.
    I don't deny or confirm anything more. Too much hassle and time-consuming.
    2 attachments (using a snipping tool) from my biggest account directly from Schwab. The other accounts are similar. You can clearly see what I have done; it's the blue line. MM is over 99%.
    image image
    Since I trade only/mostly bond funds for years, I can hold longer and get out in time.
    My 3 best ideas funds in 2025 (HOSIX,NRDCX,CBYYX) were doing OK but nothing much.
    I never invested directly in treasury funds; I play it thru HY Munis. Both categories volatility have been too high and why I missed it. That is not a concern because I have enough. My main goals are very low SD, positive yearly performance, and very small losses.
    So, what do I see?
    First, the big picture. Is it unique? Yes. Global tariffs are unique. Trump was serious all along. Is risk elevated? Yes, for a while already.
    The VIX absolute number is important, but the speed is too. Most risky categories are down = another verification.
    Bonds: high-rated bonds went up; this is good; it worked this time. Even HY munis did OK. They went up Thur and Fri. The MOVE (bond volatility) also moved very quickly to signal a sell.Another stress sign is RPHIX, it was down on Friday -0.21%.
    Second, T/A was verified. We had a small bump in stocks, but it was a short-term one. I mostly use uptrends to verify buys or a switch. After a big meltdown, I use T/A to enter back. IMO, ceilings and floors/support don't make sense because both keep breaking; which is the real true one? Other T/A indicators are useless in predicting the future.
    Markets didn't make sense to me for several weeks. When it happens, I sell because very low SD and capital conservation are my primary goals. My biggest "mistake" was that I thought that rates would not go down that much; after all, inflation isn't low enough, and new jobs are still doing OK. The Fed chair, Powell, reiterated it too with no rate cuts yet.
    There is no way to know how much more. Selling early or based on an absolute % are my preferred methods because you are late after it starts going down. There is no way to know if it will go 8-10% or 20+%.
    Research shows that missing the worst days is better than missing the good days, and most of these good days come after a big dive. See https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/14/missing-worse-best-days
    BTW, I always sell a huge % early, but I buy back very quickly when my big picture risk + other indicators signal that.
    See 2/29/2020
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2
    See March 2022
    https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1262/make-sense
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Even though I had cash to invest during the pandemic, I hesitated - caught between wanting to exit or take a chance to buy while the market was low. I chose to hold what I had and invested only small amounts at the edges, kicking myself later for the missed opportunity.
    So even though this time *may be different* I deployed dry powder at the edges on both Thursday and Friday, keeping enough in reserve to see us through the next 2-3 years if necessary.
    The U.S. is not going out of business, but we’re all aboard a ship run by fools.

    Sounds similar to my thinking. My portfolio was off to one of its better starts with about a 4% gain thru the first 3 months of the year. Most (but not all) of that has been erased in 2 days. I too deployed dry power Thursday & Friday taking cash from 12% down to 4.5% at the end of yesterday. There’s considerable fixed income / bond exposure in the ”invested” portion, so that 4.5% cash weighting is a bit misleading. Still, it represents an uncharacteristically low level for me.
    I’m struck by how universal across asset classes Friday’s selling was. By contrast, on Thursday utilities, consumers staples, most bonds were up. But Friday all hell broke loose. Little was up. (“Sell now! Look later!”) I’m thinking Thursday’s selloff was based more or less on fundamentals, while Friday’s selling was mostly sheer panic.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q1–April 7, 2025)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q1–April 7, 2025)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2025/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/25)
    (No Supplement – it’s all within the main issue)
    (Congratulations to @LewisBraham who seems to be in charge of all features now)
    Pg 18: A list of defensive, chaos-resistant funds. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    “Cash”: Money-market and ultra-short-term bond funds
    Bonds: BND,CBLDX, FFIAX, FPFIX
    Large-Cap-Value: ACMVX, GQHPX, SCHD, TWEIX
    International/Global: CIVVX, LVHI, SGENX
    Gold-Bullion: GLDM
    Alts: BAMBX, PCBAX, QDSNX, QLENX
    Pg 20: In 2025/Q1, gold, bonds and foreign stocks were winners. Large-cap-growth and cryptos were losers. SP500 peaked on 2/19/25. There were strong inflows into the money-market, ultra-short-term and intermediate-term bond funds. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    More on Funds & Retirement
    Popular dividend-blend etf SCHD has increased its energy exposure to 21% after the recent reconstitution; the next sectors are consumers 19%, healthcare 15%. Alternative ETFs include VIG, VYM, DGRO.
    INTERVIEW/Q&A – FUNDS. Sean SUN, Thornburg etf TXUG. The international growth fund has been hurt by its Chinese exposure, but those stocks are now rebounding. He looks for quality and durable growth at reasonable prices (GARP). The Fund includes emerging growth, mature growth and industry leaders. He doesn’t worry about risks to Taiwanese chip industry from China-Taiwan frictions. There are also carveouts for chips in the new US tariffs (25% for S Korea). The obesity drug sector will continue to have strong growth.
    RETIREMENT.
    GOLD is hot (relatively), but retirees shouldn’t chase it. Gold has had several short-term rallies, but it doesn’t have a good long-term record. For small positions, use gold-bullion IAU, GLDM, SGOL, GLD. In taxable accounts, higher collectibles capital gain rate of 28% applies. Goldminers are catching up in 2025GDX, GDXJ. Ignore the ads for Gold IRAs.
    Stick to your portfolio allocations and don’t do anything rash during the market turmoil. Keep the money you may need in 1-2 years in “cash” (money-market funds, ultra-short-term bond funds, T-Bills, high-yield savings accounts, short-term CDs).
    Barron’s weekend issue has CASH TRACK charts showing 4-wMA of flows.
    https://i.ibb.co/4D8Q7Dm/Barrons-Cash-Track-040525.png
    Q1 Top 5 Fund Categories (MFOP Quarterly Metrics)
    image
    Q1 Bottom 5 Fund Categories (MFOP Quarterly Metrics)
    image
    LINK
  • Death-Crosses
    If you were sure that Tariffs have a high correlation to the stock market, why didn't you sell weeks ago?
    Guess who is at 99+% in MM and hardly lost anything.
    What a mealy-mouthed bit of flim-flammery-type verbiage that last line is. Here's the real skinny. On a different forum, on April 3, FD posted the following: "Sold already weeks ago. See (fd1000.freeforums.net/post/463/thread)." Unfortunately for him, a few weeks earlier, he had written:
    Mar 15, 2025
    Post by FD1000 on Mar 15, 2025 at 1:24am
    Per my link
    fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/48/2024-5-bond-oefs?page=5
    I sold it all last Monday. See why above
    On Thursday I bought it all back because it was reversed.
    This is based on my style, goals, and using only bond funds
    Yes, he sold, but then he bought everything right back. Going forward, if not backwards as well, probably best to not believe a word he says. The guy really is teched.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    When I originally bought my Junk at precisely the wrong time, I rode out the horror and then back upward, all the while reinvesting monthly dividends. I'm now wondering if I should stick it out AGAIN, or move $$$ into higher quality paper. I own WCPNX in taxable. Hmmmmmm.... Maybe acquire a slug of that in the IRA? It has done well through the sudden "American Carnage" we've just seen, and will continue to see, until.... ?
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    In March/April 2020, Fed stepped in with monetary policy and Congress with fiscal policy. Helped backstop COVID slide ... and, then massively reverse it. Hard to see either Fed or Congress stepping in March/April 2025.
  • Is Your Fixed Income Portfolio Prepared for Uncertainty?...It's Not Just Tariffs
    Note from CrossingBridge on recent market volatility:
    Volatility has returned in full force, and while these recent moves may feel surprising, they shouldn’t be unexpected.
    The Trump administration has clearly and repeatedly messaged the desire to impose tariffs on trading partners as a source of revenue, justified by their belief in longstanding trading inequality. More importantly, Scott Bessent has focused on the considerable amount of US debt maturities that will need refinancing over the next 12 months. As a result of prior Treasury policy that focused on the shorter end of the curve, approximately $7 trillion of debt needs refinancing in 2025 alone. Bessent is focused on terming out the debt as far as possible and at the lowest rate possible. If weakening the U.S. economy and the dollar is a consequence, he is clearly taking the attitude of ‘so be it.’
    As seen over the past few years, investors have been whipsawed in their fixed income portfolios, experiencing drawdowns and volatility typically seen in the equity markets. Should inflation remain sticky (as illustrated by today's payroll numbers), it could put the Fed in a difficult position. Specifically, Danielle DiMartino Booth of QI Research highlighted from Powell’s Special Briefing today that he mentioned “tension” between soft & hard data, and that the word “persistent” replaced “transitory”. Furthermore, we should point out that aggressive U.S. policy may lead to a buyer strike among foreign investors. Alternatively, countries make Trump a phenomenal deal. One might speculate such a deal as tariff-relief in exchange for purchasing 100-year, zero-coupon U.S. Treasuries.
    After decades of duration being your friend, we don’t look at duration as a return driver, but rather as an additional risk in the portfolio. We believe it’s essential not to bet on the direction of interest rates, which is completely out of investors' control — but rather focus on what you can analyze. As bottom-up, fixed income value investors, we concentrate on fundamentals such as:
    • Cash flow quality and sustainability
    • Balance sheet strength
    • Liquidity buffers and access to capital
    • Sector and issuer-specific risks
    • Relative value across the capital structure
    For some time, we’ve cautioned that credit spreads were tight and that markets were underpricing both liquidity risk and uncertainty. With corporate profits at historically high levels, and productivity gains increasingly reliant on technological advances, we’ve maintained a defensive posture — overweighting ‘dry powder’ in our portfolios, which aims to serve a dual-purpose: 1) helping protect on the downside and 2) preparing to deploy capital when opportunities emerge.
    As spreads have started to widen, we are seeing some buying opportunities, but remaining highly cautious in deploying capital due to the high level of uncertainty.
    Please don't hesitate in reaching out to John Conner ([email protected]) if you have any questions/comments.
  • Berkshire Hathaway: "Donald Trump posted a fake quote from Warren Buffet on social media today"
    “This is why Warren Buffett just said Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years,” the video says.
    Bold letters highlight the non-sense Trump is sprouting.
    Buffet has more than half of Berkshire asset in CASH since he took profit in mid 2024. When the market is in deep recession, there will be plenty of buying opportunities for Buffet.