Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Chaos-Resistant Investing
    But, @Crash et al; a 'newbie' with some guidance from another, to invest in a broad-based index, as with SP-500, etc. has the benefit of time and compounding. Newbie in this write is directed to those who have not yet attained a halfway point in their working career. Those older, may have a different vision for investing.
    Every day there are those who become enrolled in a company 401k/403b, etc. The vast majority have little understanding about investments, but the younger ones have time to learn.
    And for all of us, we are fully within an investment period without precedent, eh? No guidelines from a previous and/or similar event period.
    IMHO.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • The latest scam from 'that' person's political friends/partners

    interpretation :
    someone has attempted to circumvent the normalization of potus grift.
    step 1. provide 6-7 figure donation to attend dinner and\or 'consultative' WH event.
    step 2. attempt to get last word in on your scam, relative to dozens of other like-minded entrepreneurs
    step 3. given odds of outsider becoming insider, prepare to write it all off as business expenses
    american capitalism 2025-2028, possibly longer
  • Fed farm Bonds 4.8% callable- Disclosure Question
    FFCB 4.8% 07/23/2029 Callable- cusip 3133ETDT1. ( at Schwab)
    this is the disclosure - Disclosure Note for CUSIP - 3133ETDT1
    Date Type Note
    04/23/2025 Secured Text The Bonds are the general unsecured joint and several obligations of the Banks.
    04/23/2025 Guaranteed Text The Bonds are not obligations of and are not guaranteed by the United States or any Federal Agency or instrumentality other than the Banks.
    04/15/2025 New Issues on IDN information CONTINUOUS CALL BEGINNING ON 7/23/2025 @ 100%.
    I understand these are likely to get called unless rates shoot up quickly - I do not quite understand the risk . I am considering this as a parking place for some cash . Is the risk worth the extra .50 basis points over treasuries ?
  • ETF EPS
    Weightings based on company earnings makes some sense. It's an intriguing way to build an index.
    Weights based on earnings per share (which is not what these ETFs do) would make about as much sense as the DJIA being share price weighted. If a Dow component has a 2 for 1 split, its weight in the index is (approximately) halved. Likewise, EPS is cut in half if a company has a 2 for 1 split.
    it removes valuation from the picture.
    Almost. It limits its universe to the 500 largest U.S. companies by market cap. From that point on, weightings are substantially independent of valuation. (They must also have a P/E of at least 2, a very low bar if profitable).
    I might prefer an index that did a little more smoothing of earnings to avoid whipsawing. It looks only at earnings over the past four quarters. Some companies have relatively steady earnings, while others may be cyclical, running deficits for years (investing for the future) before making profits. (See nimble dividend.) I need to give it more thought.
    I haven't delved too deeply into whether nonrecurring expenses (or revenue) are incorporated into the calculation of earnings¹. These could likewise whipsaw a company's weighting, decreasing (or increasing) its earnings weight for one year only.
    ¹ See, e.g. https://accountinginsights.org/what-are-non-recurring-charges-and-how-do-they-work/
  • Tech Companies - US vs EU vs China
    Europe is generating far fewer unicorns—new, privately held companies that are worth more than $1 billion—than China and the U.S. Unicorns are a good measure of capitalist innovation; they are almost always fast-growing firms that have found a new way of doing something and are shaking up an existing industry.
    https://wsj.com/tech/europe-global-tech-race
  • Trump wins temporary reprieve as he fights against court block on tariffs
    w/so much $ and complexity involved, bloomberg made an impressive interactive chart.
    'see!' MAGA cries, this 10^n D chess , with n>2.
    trump's genius is that he can ignore details and boil it down during private 1-on-1 negotiations :
    A. did they already cough up a sufficient bribe\grift ?
    B. will they cough up a sufficiently large bribe\grift worth expending my wrath ?
    thus, the war on penguins ended with a whimper.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/trump-tariffs-tracker/
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Derf ...common holdings ranked by dollar volume between accounts include: FNMA, CLDX, T, JPST, SCHD, EVT, UTF, and PTA. As you can see, some are highly speculative, and many throw off significant distributions.
    I don't add or subtract very often. That will change (hopefully) if AVGO gets a bump at earnings this week. It may rise higher over the next 2 years or so, but I'll be cashing in to fund a half dozen different long term positions when the market inevitably tanks in the near future.
    By the way...I've found that buying high quality individual stocks when on sale is one of the best ways to generate income and capital gains within an account. But you must be very patient. Same with CEFs.
    It's not magic, but it works for me. FYI, Schwab has me +14.91% YTD,
  • Chaos-Resistant Investing
    Not a single copy of After Yorktown in the public libraries of Maricopa County. I guess I'll have to buy one. :)
    Have to agree that PRBLX lost its way. It used to be a steady low volatility fund. Sad to see Amazon in the top five holdings.
    Total returns as of yesterday
    1 year...VOO 13.7%....PRBLX 12.6%
    3 year...VOO 48.7%....PRBLX 43.6%
    5 year...VOO 119%....PRBLX 109%
    Simpler: 5-year average annual performance... VOO 15.9%...PRBLX 14.9%.
    Why did PRBLX lose its way?
    I don't see it yet. When the SP500 is strong as per the last 5 years, it's harder to beat it.
    I don't question my managers' selections; either you trust them or not.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @derf I consider the percentages by account instead of the portfolio as a whole as the taxable and IRA accounts are uniquely constructed. The percentage of a "full position" is an admittedly arbitrary 4%, and is an artifact from my earliest investing days. Some positions grow well beyond that target, such as AVGO and FNMA are both hovering around 15% in my IRA, with FNMA at a similar percentage in my taxable account. 20 positions in each of my accounts is comfortable...for the time being.
  • Chaos-Resistant Investing
    Some observations after going through MFO, June 1, 2025.
    @David_Snowball: My TIAA 403b does include some non-TIAA funds, but the only Pimco fund available is PIMIX. When my plan changed about 4 years ago, some options were frozen - so, I could keep CREF Social Choice / QCSCIX, sell it, but cannot get back in. For now, I am sticking with it. Will keep an eye on Pimco multi-asset PIRMX (REITs, precious-metals, commodities and lots of TIPS).
    @lynnbolin2021: A few years ago, I moved from Wellesley VWINX / VWIAX and VGWIX / VGYAX to Wellington VWELX / VWENX and VGWLX / VGWAX. I used ST- or ultra-ST- bond fund to make appropriate allocation adjustments. Maybe, with higher interest rates, it's time to take another look at Wellesley.
    @dong or @Don_Glickstein (guessing MFO handle): Great launch article. But one caution about Upside/Downside Capture Ratio (U/D CR).
    U/D CR works best when at least 1 bull and 1 bear cycles are included in the period. Similarly, Upside CR should have at least 1 bull cycle, and Downside CR should have at least 1 bear cycle. Otherwise, the values can mislead.
    Since-inception does catch various market cycles. But 18 months isn't sufficient for definitive conclusions. IMO, the period considered should include at least 2022 (so, 3 yrs), maybe even 2020 (5 yrs). Note that CBLDX has existed since 01/2018-, but CBLVX only since 10/2024- .
    Anyway, those are minor details. I thoroughly enjoyed your piece.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Established a new position to increase foreign exposure….FOSFX, currently at 1/4 of a full position.
  • ETF EPS
    I thought that if I searched for "EPS" at MFO & MFO Home, I would get zillion hits.
    But to my surprise, "EPS" got 0 hits!
    Well, this post will remedy that (-:).
    Posters talk about all kinds of funds and stocks here, and earnings per share or EPS cannot be ignored.
    My real interest was in finding earnings-weighted ETFs. I found India EPI quickly because it has "Earnings" in its name. So, the next question was, which is the earnings-weighted US etf?
    There are several US ETFs that use dividend-weights or fundamental-weights (that may include earnings or cash flow), but after reading several fund objectives, I found that etf EPS was such a fund - so obvious in hindsight. AUM $1.1 billion, ER 8 bps, 02/2007- .
    Conceptually, these ETFs have the most profitable (absolute) companies.
    Earnings-weight still has large-cap orientation, but it removes valuation from the picture. So, people may consider it as a market-cap-LC alternative.
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 5/31/25
    I was surprised by the data - current international exposure only 12%, recommendation 15-20%.
    Now look at international exposures (stocks and bonds) in some allocation funds/models & TDFs.
    Morningstar Allocation Models https://mp.morningstar.com/en-us/portfolios/all
    Aggressive Growth Stocks 32.86%, bonds 0.86%
    Growth Stocks 27.13%, bonds 1.71%
    Moderate Growth stocks 18.69%, bonds 3.88%
    Vanguard https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/list/all?strategy=all_in_one&filters=open
    Growth VASGX Stocks 33.40%, bonds 6.10%
    Moderate Growth VSMGX Stocks 24.90%, bonds 12.20
    TDF 2070 VSVNX Stocks 37.30%, bonds 2.90%
    Fidelity https://www.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/fidelity-funds/overview?imm_pid=58700004243390979&immid=100726_SEA&imm_eid=ep35275476489&utm_source=GOOGLE&utm_medium=paid_search&utm_account_id=700000001009773&utm_campaign=MUT&utm_content=58700004243390979&utm_term=fidelity+funds&utm_campaign_id=100726&utm_id=71700000038714008&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=1490091060&gbraid=0AAAAAD7OUhJfHEaon_b4soXK1aAmEo7Ue&gclid=CjwKCAjwl_XBBhAUEiwAWK2hzqSGTus3Eqxbn_p1pcRxslHEzthy441IZerMYSkYegV2tR5D1U4dbRoCKQ8QAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds
    Aggressive Growth FAMRX Stocks 38.04%, bonds ?
    Moderate Growth FSANX Stocks 27.44%, bonds ?
    TDF 2070 FRBVX Stocks 36.93%, bonds 1.01%
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 5/31/25
    "Staying home has worked for US investors for years but now may be time to think GLOBAL with 15-20% exposure (average now is 12%)."
    So is (was) this a trade for 2025, or is this a new long-term shift in investing attitude?
    US equities are no longer the safe bet, according to "expert" advise. Gosh, I wonder what changed.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    30 may, 2025: Vonnie Quinn again. Is she the new regular? She has clearly worked on rounding out the sharp corners of her Irish brogue. Some work still needed.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-05-30/real-yield-5-30-2025-video
    Uncertainty. 50% tariff now on imported steel, The Orange Crud accuses China of reneging on the trade deal, which wasn't yet finalized. Consumer spending=down. Imports plummeting.
    US Treasuries = first loss of the year. Guests emphasize uncertainty. Need more time and data to get a handle on the fiscal, economic scene. Navarro is full of (false) assurances re: the national debt growth in the House-passed Bill.
    Junk bond issuance in May is the most since last Sept. $31B
    I.G. middle of the maturity spectrum is advised ....
  • DOL Rescinded Cautionary Guidelines for Cryptos in 401k
    "We the people" are those of us who still pay significant taxes. Those with the real wealth are largely immune from that burden.
    Link.
    The top 10 percent of income earners pay more than 60 percent of all federal taxes and 72 percent of income taxes, shares that have been increasing over time.
    the top 10 percent of income earners pay an average tax rate of 27.3 percent, which is 7 percentage points higher than the next closest group. Treasury breaks the highest income earners into narrower segments, showing that the highest-earning 0.1 percent pay the highest average tax rate of 33.4 percent.
    as a share of adjusted gross income (AGI), the top half of income earners paid 97.1 percent of federal income taxes. The top 1 percent earned 22.4 percent of total income and paid 40.4 percent of all the income taxes. The top 10 percent earned 49.4 percent of the income and paid 72 percent of the income tax.
    If you don't like the American system, you can move to Belgium, Germany, or France.
    Regardless, you must continue to post here.
    Yes, I know, the gap between the haves and have-nots has gotten bigger under boths Dems and GOPs. That's capitalism, which is not perfect but better than most.
    Crypto? I don't buy it, but 2-3% of your portfolio can't be too bad.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (05/30/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:18 Topics
    01:30 "Sell in May and Go Away"
    05:43 The "TACO Trade"
    09:26 Who Holds the Power to Impose Tariffs?
    11:40 The Fastest Growing Company in History
    17:18 Money Printing Is Back
    19:44 Rising Delinquencies
    23:55 Musk Leaves DOGE
    30:22 More Affordable Rents
    Video
    Blog
  • WealthTrack Show
    This Charley Ellis episode was previously broadcast on February 14, 2025.