"I fully recognize your reluctance to use Monte Carlo analyses. You may not be comfortable with using math that you don't understand. "
That's not what I said.
"Making a point of the distinction between differing ratings ... as good, very good, or excellent is just being picayune."
When I went to school B meant good and A meant excellent. You managed to turn 2 Bs into an A.
"Whatever the reason, it Macht Nichts' to me." I respect your freedom of choice and would never challenge it."
Good.
"I really wish you investment success."
I started investing in 1970.

Hi Hank,
Thanks for your most recent contribution. An honest post on a controversial topic is always appreciated. The referenced article is indeed excellent. That's why I posted it.
The article is dominated by references to Wade Pfau observations. He too is a very strong advocate of Monte Carlo simulations to help arriving at retirement decisions. These codes also do yeomen service when updating after the initial decision. Change happens. As I too frequently say: forecasting is hazardous duty.
Here is a Link to a Pfau article in which he discusses some of the advantages offered by Monte Carlo retirement planning tools:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2016/06/13/the-advantages-of-monte-carlo-simulations/#68614c1a40c6
This article by Wade Pfau does an honest job at discussing both the merits and shortcomings of Monte Carlo simulators. The Pfau reference ends with the following paragraph:
"Overall, the advantages of Monte Carlo simulations likely more than make up for any deficiencies when compared to the results we obtain using historical simulations."
Since our debate over Monte Carlo codes has extracted some very emotional responses from the FMO membership, I'll take this opportunity to recommend yet another free Monte Carlo tool on the Internet. It is titled The Flexible Retirement Planner. Here is the Link to this superior tool:
http://www.flexibleretirementplanner.com/wp/
I have referenced this code in earlier posts. It is user friendly. I hope you visit this site and do a few experimental calculations. I believe you will be impressed with its speed and the options available on this site. Please give it a try. You will get a quick feeling for your portfolio survival prospects, especially given your concerns over uncertain market returns in coming decades.
That uncertainty is a reasonable concern. And that's exactly the type of problem Monte Carlo,codes were designed to address. In near zero time, you can explore a range of these uncertainties, and estimate their occurrence probabilities. Your portfolio asset allocations and spending profile can be adjusted to accommodate these uncertainties.
I hope this helps.
Best Wishes

Thanks @ Mike & Ol Skeet for getting this back on track. Agree it's a good article. I view most anything financial in the NYT times with a healthy dose of skeptism. They're great at a lot of things - but financial analysis and reporting isn't their forte. To the crux of the issue: I think where you run into problems is (1) trying to formulate a simple one size fits all approach to retirement drawdowns and/or (2) assuming the next 25 years will be like the last 25 years (interest rates, inflation, equity valuations, etc.).
I can't relate to the central question of how to survive "X" number of years on "X" number of dollars invested. Reason: I enjoy both a defined benefit pension with a partial COL rider and also a decent SS income stream. And, supplementary health insurance through retirement plan as well. Conceivably, these would provide for basic living expenses - though it would be a very "spartan" lifestyle without travel or other things that make retirement enjoyable.
In my highly atypical instance, even after taking distributions, retirement savings have roughly doubled over the nearly 20 years since retirement (albeit in nominal dollar terms only). At the same time, more than half of that has now been placed under the Roth umbrella, whereas at the time of retirement none was. Much of the reason for the increase is that the money was left largely undisturbed during the first 10 years.
As far as the article's mention that withdrawals are not linear or equal every year - I couldn't agree more. There have been years when I needed to take a larger sum - say as a sizable down payment on a new car or for unexpected home repairs - and other years when I've needed very little.
I don't envy those without a pension or other solid income stream in retirement. Not everyone would be satisfied with a somewhat spartan lifestyle either. As I look at the markets over the past 10-20 years, I'd not be eager risking a large retirement nest egg with an aggressive approach in retirement. Lots of warning signs IMHO. But, no one really knows. As I said at the start, the problem with these mathematical models is that the next 25 years could be markedly different than the last 25 - as others, notably msf, have tried to explain.

This is real: etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/etf-watch-quincy-jones-etf-thing?nopaging=1
Next to launch: The Quilted Northern Davita Toiletry Dialysis and Fecal Microbiota Transplantation ETF. Ticker Symbol--SHT--pending SEC approval.

FYI: Why does active fund management disappoint so often? One big reason is because most active managers refuse to hold cash when stocks get expensive.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-big-reason-why-your-active-fund-stinks-2017-07-06/print

FYI: Sports marketplaces aren’t all that different from the investment arena.
Regards,
Ted
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=815090

I'll note that I alone warranted a 375-word rebuke recently. The 3 of you combined can muster only 197 words? Pretty pathetic showing men. :)
Thanks to @msf for the analysis. Hope the personality aspects here don't obscure your contribution.

Hi Guys,
Not a totally unexpected attack from a trio of MFOers who often submit Ad Hominem posts directed to discredit me. That troubles me not one iota. The more they protest, the more I suspect I'm making some positive inroads.
I certainly do not apologize for my commitment to Monte Carlo analyses. I profitably used Monte Carlo analyses when working as a research engineer. When I was considering my retirement in the early 1990s, I could not find an operational Monte Carlo code dedicated to retirement planning analyses. With help from Bill Sharpe and Gene Fama,who sent market data sets and volunteered some suggestions, I wrote my own Monte Carlo code. I used that tool in making my retirement decision. It helped.
These guys protest much to much, and accuse me without knowing me or my capabilities. Their ranting polemics say much more about them than about me. They are small men!
I will continue my march. Monte Carlo is not for everyone, but MFOers should be made aware that the code is freely available and is a candidate to add to your investment toolbox. As always, it is your free and informed choice.
Best Wishes

@OldJoe - Yes, I remember those days of 100, 200, 300, 400-point losses for several trading days during late 2007 to early 2009. I think there was a 700-point loss in late September, 2008. I kept watching the opening bell everyday waiting for relief, but it didn't come ! That was brutal, I must say. Lots of Pepto.

Hi @Ted
Oh, its okay.
I'm thinking of a running theme here and wondering how high the french numbering count will achieve before the smooth and calm takes place again.
Surely your links are appreciated and there is more than enough space in the MFO server for a few more 1's and 0's from whomever.
Take care,
Catch

@hank
Ok, now you're not supposed to be making us work this much.......too damn hot in Michigan today.......although beats the hell out of winter.
I see you didn't want the storms anymore and pushed them to the east coast..................
Anyway, here's the pony story attribute.
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/12/13/pony-somewhere/

No, Education IRA, those with $2k max limit. Fortunately, I started the accounts for both kids around 2009 (the lowest point of market) and contributed for 3 years, and that 6 thousand has become approximately $12k in both accounts.
Contribution to them is after-tax money, so as you mentioned, they are somewhat like Roth IRAs.

Hi @mrc70
You noted: " my daughter's Education IRA"
Do you mean a 529 "education" account or does your daughter have a Roth IRA that will be used for education?
Thank you.
Catch

JULY 6
Still wondering where the big money moves with many sectors getting the whack.
chg | %
ITOT -0.94%
FREL -1.82%
HEDJ -1.11%
FHLC -1.57%
LQD -0.26%
IEF -0.19%
EDV -1.30%
HYG -0.25%
Thinking about how many "part 1, 2, 3, 4's, etc." will I put up with before I "depart" our own investment parts.
Take care,
Catch

For me ARTKX has been a core international fund for last several years. I tempted to split it across ARTKX and FMIJX in the 1-2 years, but controlled that urge. I bought VWIGX in my daughter's Education IRA a few years ago and it made good money in that account, and I added Vanguard International Dividend Growth index in my retirement account a few months ago.
SFGIX, ARTWX and GPEOX have been my EM funds. Though, sometimes I tempt to sell one of them and instead play with EM regions (Latin America, Asia and Emerging Euro) with TRow Price funds for a small part of my portfolio.

Hi Ted,
Thanks for the references to the various forms of the investment Periodic Tables. In one simple graph the annual return variability of various asset classes is nicely illustrated with the color coding schemes. These graphs tell a very enduring truth.
From Matthew 20:16 in the King James Version (KJV) of the bible: "So the last shall be first, and the first last: for many be called, but few chosen." Staying on top is an investing challenge that most fail. These graphs document the roiling turmoil that promote those high failure rates, even among professional folk. These data reinforce the case for broad diversification.
Best Wishes

FYI: The chart below shows several issues investors struggle with all the time. It’s difficult to pick the best performing investment year after year, yet for many investors, it’s an annual event. They look for an encore, picking the best asset class last year with the hope of a repeat performance. Yet, betting on last year’s winner rarely works out.
Assets at the top of the chart one year could be at the bottom the next, and vice versa. Much of this is due to reversion to the mean. But over the long-term, those big swings even out. The chart shows annual returns for eight asset classes against a diversified portfolio. Diversification works to smooth out those big swings in the short-term. While you’ll never get the biggest gains of any year, you avoid the huge losses.
The table below ranks the best to worst investment returns by asset class over the past 15 years. Hover over the table to highlight the asset class returns.
Regards,
Ted
https://novelinvestor.com/asset-class-returns/

FYI: I recently argued that today’s stock market is not at all like the 1997-2001 dot-com bubble and that, in fact, the simple benchmark developed by John Burr Williams, the original value investor, indicates that investors can anticipate a long-term return on the S&P 500 that will be well above the return on Treasury bonds. Today, I look at another investment benchmark that suggests that stocks are not at all bubbly.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2017/07/06/stocks_still_dont_look_very_expensive__102761.html

@AMatMFO
I purchased CNRYX through the transfer agent for low minimum. It was offered on the application. Not an issue.
Can also purchase CNRYX through Scottrade for low minimum.
From Scottrade:
Minimums:
Initial
100.00
Additional
100.00
IRA
100.00
Additional IRA
100.00
Characteristics
For Sale at Scottrade-$ Available At Scottrade
Transaction Fee-TF Transaction Fees Apply
No Load-NL No Load
Availability: Open to all Investors

Yes I have been reading up on this fund over the past couple of weeks too and am intrigued by it. I have followed Jain over the past couple of years. I'm curious what % of your equity portfolios does EM currently represent. I'm around 5 %

I'm 10% foreign. And SFGIX is my only dedicated EM equity fund. It's 3% of total portfolio. I've not been adding much at all. Mostly just watching, lately. Rich valuations. I'm re-investing all pay-outs.

As for the last month, if we assume the same sectors continued from May into June, Technology was hit pretty hard (-5+%) and Consumer Discretionary was down roughly the same as Healthcare was up. Industrials were up a little but not much. I looked at the SPDR Select efts and admittedly I just looked at the 1 month performance from right now, so it's not completely precise, but that's at least some of the cause. In the last month VOO was down half a percent or so. That doesn't totally justify 2% underperformance, more like 1% or so, which means either the imperfections in my estimate are the rest or the bonds had a tough month too, or both.
I think anytime you follow a system that mechanically rotates, regardless of whether it's among sectors, or in the market and out based on moving averages, or whatever, you're going to have periods where you're on the wrong side of things and you're hope is that you'll end up on the right side of things enough to do well. There's no question the fund has done well since its inception, but in some cases systems are designed to reduce volatility rather than specifically increase the return. In the case of this fund it seems the goal is increasing the return more than reducing volatility although at times I think it's been less volatile too.