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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mutual Funds Rally By Not Sticking To A Style: FPACX
    I just compared the above top rated Forward Income Builder fund (AIAIX) to the fund I've been using in this space for the last 13+ years TIBIX. No thanks, I'll continue to remain oblivious.
    Edited to add: I'm sure I'm missing something but it doesn't appear to be performance. I'd be thankful for any insight. FWIW, I'm not totally thrilled by the Thornburg offering as they have faltered in their objective of "income building" but I haven't been able to find or settle on a suitable alternative.
    An obvious observation - TIBIX couldn't show up in the cited article, since it hasn't been around for 15 years.
    What you're missing seems to be the fund's relatively poor performance through 2008 (falling further than both M*'s moderate allocation benchmark and the average world allocation fund). See this M* chart
    For the chart, I used 9/30/2007 as the start date (David suggested fall 2007 as a start point, this date seemed as good as any). Over this period of time, TIBIX performed in line with AIAIX and the moderate allocation benchmark, though it significantly outpeformed world allocation funds.
    It's that oversized dip that's killing it. It doesn't get brownie points for upside volatility with Sortino.
    Over its lifetime, TIBIX has indeed excelled. Here's that same M* graph, stretched to lifetime.
    While I'm not a fan of asking "what have you done for me lately" (e.g. YTD), I think it is fair to point out that all of that outperformance is due to the fund's first five years. Since then it has been doing well, but it's not beating a few other good funds. However, by the same token, if you throw out its 2008 performance, it again looks great.
    If one is willing to live with the idea that the fund could get creamed (relatively speaking) in a bear market, it's a fine, high performing fund.
  • Waiting for the smoke to clear?
    Just adding a little fuel to the fire so to speak (from Dow Jones via M*):
    Oil Prices Lifted by Supply Cut Hopes
    http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201603072580/oil-prices-lifted-by-supply-cut-hopes.aspx
  • Mutual Funds Rally By Not Sticking To A Style: FPACX
    @Mark & MFO Members: Here the YTD-10 Yr. returns for AIAIX and FIBIX. Neither of the two funds are ranked in the World Allocation Fund Category by U.S. News & World Report:
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/mutual-fund/compare?Tickers=AIAIX+TIBIX&Compare=Returns
    U.S. News & World Report Ranking of World Allocation Funds;
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/world-allocation
  • Mutual Funds Rally By Not Sticking To A Style: FPACX
    I just compared the above top rated Forward Income Builder fund (AIAIX) to the fund I've been using in this space for the last 13+ years TIBIX. No thanks, I'll continue to remain oblivious.
    Edited to add: I'm sure I'm missing something but it doesn't appear to be performance. I'd be thankful for any insight. FWIW, I'm not totally thrilled by the Thornburg offering as they have faltered in their objective of "income building" but I haven't been able to find or settle on a suitable alternative.
  • Mutual Funds Rally By Not Sticking To A Style: FPACX
    The short version: a former Morningstar analyst ranked "balanced" funds with more than a billion in assets by their 15-year Sortino ratio. Sortino is an offshoot of the well-known Sharpe ratio, but it's more sensitive to a fund's downside deviation. By that measure, the best balanced fund is F P A Crescent.
    Two quick notes:
    1. a lot has changed for Crescent over the past 15 years, not least growing to 100 times their previous size. That is, from $170 million in 2002 to more than $18 billion now.
    2. different parameters give different results. Lipper categorizes Crescent as a "flexible portfolio" fund, which seems more appropriate than benchmarking it against staid 60/40 funds as Morningstar does. If you look at 60/40 funds over the course of the current market cycle, which began in the fall of 2007, Crescent finishes sixth:
    1. Forward Income Builder
    2. Chicago Equity Partners Balanced
    3. Bruce
    4. Marsico Flexible Capital
    5. Intrepid Capital
    6. FPA Crescent
    7. Provident Trust
    8. JP Morgan Income Builder
    9. Prudential Income Builder
    10. Loomis Sayles Multi-Asset Income
    If you sort by Martin ratio, Charles's preferred metric and the basis of our fund ratings, you get most of the same funds but Crescent pops to fourth:
    1. Forward Income Builder
    2. Intrepid Capital
    3. Chicago Equity Partners Balanced
    4. FPA Crescent
    5. Provident Trust
    6. Bruce
    For what interest that holds,
    David
  • Strategists Turn Bullish on Emerging Markets Stocks
    Maybe these strategists know something that the other strategists in the past 5 - 7 years didn't.... The brilliant Ray Dalio of Bridgewater has had outsized positions in international / emerging markets for the last 7 years and they haven't budged. Because of the influence of the Modern Portfolio Theory crowd, there has been increasing pressure, over the last 10 years for investors to "go" emerging. And ETFs make it too easy for investors to attempt it ..... IMO, the domestic U.S. market is still the best and easiest to contemplate, even if it has occasional declines every 3 - 5 years ...
  • A History Of Mutual-Fund Doors Opening And Closing
    There are so many ways of closing a fund that it's hard to fathom cash flow management being a difficult issue.
    There is of course the hard close, where even existing investors cannot add more money. This should not impede funds with excess cash, as Lewis pointed out. Then there are funds that allow money to trickle in by restricting the amount that existing investors can add. The Vanguard Primecap funds that Mona mentioned are a good example of these. They used to be restricted to $25K addditional per SSN per year. Vanguard has since relaxed that a bit, allowing $25K per account type per SSN per year. (Vanguard also allows Flagship clients to open new accounts.)
    Most funds that are closed still allow existing investors to add money (soft close). Some go further. Many funds allow new accounts via retirement plans (usually if the plan already has some minimum amount in the fund when counting all participants). Or they may allow clients of investment advisers to open new accounts.
    Some funds that are closed via third party intermediaries are still open to investors that invest directly. American Century Midcap Value (ACMVX) and Vanguard Wellington (VWELX/VWENX) are good examples of that. I've seen funds that close off access through major brokers (typically Fidelity and Schwab) but leave access open through other brokers. Sorry, no current examples come to mind.
    The point is that cash inflow is more like a spigot than an on/off switch. It's fairly easy to turn that knob. The problem with inflows comes about not because there's no spigot, but if there's no pressure behind it. That is, a fund won't attract cash when the market is plummeting and no one wants to put money in, regardless of whether it's closed or not.
  • High Yield Corporate Mutual Funds
    Well we get to here his thoughts again Tuesday !
    Jeffrey Gundlach (who many follow blindly because he is an expert and manages billions)
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/26347/another-open-mic-for-doubleline-s-jeffery-gundach-connect-the-dots-3-8-2016-webcast

    Actually before I get grief about it, the Jeffrey Gundlach DoubleLine bond funds mentioned (DBLTX and DLTNX have been among the best of the best over the past 1, 3, and 5 years. And obviously had you *blindly* put your money in the trust of DoubleLine you would be sitting pretty in that bond category if a diversified portfolio is your thing. I am as eager as anyone to hear Mr. Gundlach's views on 3/8 if only to see how the markets react.
  • High Yield Corporate Mutual Funds
    Well we get to here his thoughts again Tuesday !
    Jeffrey Gundlach (who many follow blindly because he is an expert and manages billions)
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/26347/another-open-mic-for-doubleline-s-jeffery-gundach-connect-the-dots-3-8-2016-webcast
    Thanks also @rabockma @Junkster
    Schwab
    Symbol
    PHYZX (Minimum: $100.00)
    PHYZX - Prudential High Yield Fund Cl Z As of 03/04/2016
    NAV: 5.06 +0.03
    POP: 0.00
    52 Week High: 5.63
    52 Week Low: 4.78
    Trans. Fee Fund: No
    Sales Load: None
    as is ETHIX @ Schwab (Minimum: $100.00)
  • High Yield Corporate Mutual Funds
    @Junkster.Only presented the S A link as a primer for high yield options and comparisons.
    Here is another chart from the S A article that clearly shows your call of a bottom on February 11th.Even the much maligned FPACX is up 7.69% since then !
    image
    also @Junkster Risk-off to continue ? More for your perusal.
    MLPs had another ripping week as higher oil prices and E&P equity issuance attracted new capital propelling the benchmark index higher +7.21%, and a -8.72% YTD loss. Crude rose 10.2% for the week as lower production numbers were reported by EIA (table below) which seemed to trump the higher crude storage reported, along with more cooperative comments from OPEC members and Russia. The reality of lower crude production has been good news for MLP's, despite what those lower volumes may mean for some midstream assets
    http://mlpdata.com/mlp_newsevents/article_details?article_id=282&mbTrackingId=1
    "If you are Exxon, you have to be looking around at all of the wreckage in the energy sector these days and feel like a kid in a candy store,” said Spencer Cutter, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. The debt offer is a sign that Exxon may "start picking up great assets at fire-sale prices" and "take advantage of the downturn and start shopping," he said.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-29/exxon-said-to-plan-bond-offering-after-rating-downgrade-threat
    Oil jumps as traders close short positions, U.S. producers cut rig count
    http://news.yahoo.com/oil-rises-traders-close-short-positions-u-producers-015805943--finance.html
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/commodities
    Asian shares hit two-month highs on Monday, extending sharp gains from last week, following upbeat U.S. jobs data and a rebound in oil and commodity prices.
    http://news.yahoo.com/asian-shares-hit-two-month-high-solid-u-004607584--business.html
    Add 3/07 Latest From Otter Creek L/S Fund -2.32% since Feb 11th
    On the Bearish Side .From OTCRX March 7th posting of Feb Fact Sheet
    Market Commentary
    We continue to be mindful of both credit growth and credit conditions. Financial conditions remain tighter than several months ago and access to the high yield
    market has become more challenging since last year. In addition, despite the rise in equity markets recently, the spread on the 2 year and 10 year treasuries is
    the lowest since 2008 which does not bode well for future credit growth. We believe these dynamics are worth monitoring closely.
    Equity market valuations remain relatively unattractive, in our view. We estimate the S&P 500 is trading at approximately 16x-17x earnings – modestly above its
    historical average – despite fairly tepid sales and earnings growth. Given the ongoing deterioration in global growth trends, we see more downside than upside
    to earnings near-term. We are closely monitoring the potential for consumer spending to accelerate on the back of an improved labor market, better wage
    growth and low gas prices. A potential acceleration in consumer spending coupled with a further stabilization in the dollar and commodities could help drive
    improved earnings growth later in the year.
    Our long portfolio is structured around owning high quality companies benefiting from secular tailwinds, idiosyncratic ideas that should perform well regardless of
    the market environment, and special situations. Our short portfolio is structured to take advantage of companies overearning due to ultra-low interest rates and
    companies with a high likelihood of missing sales forecasts due to a weaker macro environment.
    As we enter March, we have approximately 20% of the Fund in cash. Considering the rise in equity markets over the past several weeks and the collapse in
    volatility, we have taken the opportunity to add to our highest conviction ideas by adding both common stock shorts and out of the money puts
    http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/media/pdfs/OCL_Factsheet.pdf
  • Mutual fund market commentary
    Don't know much about the author's record. Matthew Sauer. He reports having spent nine years with Fidelity Independent Advisor (F I A). In 2014, he started a small investment advisory firm in Williamstown, Massachusetts, still home for Don Dion's F I A operation. Sauer has 46 clients and $10 million in AUM. 70% of his AUM is with a pension or profit-sharing plan.
    Curiously, his "market perspectives" provide no perspectives. He simply reports a handful of datapoints: markets up, inflation in the Euro zone down, ISM up, some individual stocks up, others down.
    (shrugs)
    David
  • High Yield Corporate Mutual Funds
    Summary From an article earlier this week from Seeking Alpfa looking @ E T Fs in this space
    authored byFundGuru Mar. 3, 2016 8:40 AM ET
    High yield bonds have performed poorly of late, despite historically delivering equity-like returns with lower volatility.
    We believe the recent sell-off provides an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

    Recent selloff??? Have performed poorly of late??? Junk bonds were in the midst of their largest rally in years when that article was published. They are now positive YTD.
  • High Yield Corporate Mutual Funds
    Summary From an article earlier this week from Seeking Alpfa looking @ E T Fs in this space
    authored byFundGuru Mar. 3, 2016 8:40 AM ET
    High yield bonds have performed poorly of late, despite historically delivering equity-like returns with lower volatility.
    We believe the recent sell-off provides an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
    E T Fs At A Glance
    The high yield bond E T F space is currently dominated by four large players:
    iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond E T F (:HYG)
    SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond E T F (:JNK)
    SPDR Barclays Short Term High Yield Bond E T F (SJNK)
    PIMCO 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond Index E T F (:HYS)
    The key distinguishing feature between the four E T Fs is their duration. The HYG and JNK are normal duration ETFs, while SJNK and HYS are shorter duration ETFs.
    image
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3950906-buy-hyg-high-yielding-lower-risk-equities
    @Junkster said on March 1
    We both started on 2/12. This may surprise you. I hold 4 junk funds - my largest is PYHRX (doesn't accumulate daily) PHYDX, EIHIX ( I said never again a fee fund but) and JAHYX (not banned there in my taxable. You will notice no MWHYX. It's action last Tuesday was enough for me. A fun ride let's hope we don't have to cut and run and oil behaves itself.
    @SlowLane said
    March 1 Flag
    I meant to say "Did you instigate this exodus from Treasuries to junk?"
    You pick some good funds. I am in ABHIX, along with PHYDX and EIHIX.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/75775/#Comment_75775
    Edit
    I own BGH
    (% of Assets*)
    Bond Ratings
    Baa 1.29
    Ba 5.63
    B 77.25
    Caa and below 10.43
    Not Rated 0.75
    Cash and Accrued Income 4.65
    TOTAL 100.00
    Country Diversification
    United States 59.71
    United Kingdom 16.71
    Germany 3.35
    France 2.94
    Netherlands 2.13
    TOTAL 84.84
    Top Holdings
    Oil and Gas 13.33
    Healthcare, Education and Childcare 10.48
    Jan 31 2016 Fact Sheet
    http://www.babsoncapital.com/assets/user/media/Babson_Capital_Global_Short_Duration_High_Yield_Fund_Factsheet1.pdf
  • Millennials Hire Computers To Invest Their Money
    FYI: Computers help us decide what route to take to the grocery store, whom to date and what music to listen to. Why shouldn't they also decide how we invest?
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/millennials-hire-computers-to-invest-their-money/2016/03/03/29e77556-e173-11e5-8c00-8aa03741dced_story.html
    Acorns Website:
    https://www.acorns.com/investments/
  • In Fledgling Exchange-Traded Fund, Striking A Blow For Women
    FYI: (The Linkster has said many times. "Build It And They Will Come", but I believe this fund will wind-up on Ron Rowland's ETF Death List in about a year and a half.)
    State Street Global Advisors will introduce its 159th exchange-traded fund on Tuesday, the SPDR Gender Diversity Index E.T.F. Fortunately, the fund’s ticker symbol is catchier: SHE.
    The fund’s goal is to achieve market-rate returns by investing in United States companies that “are leaders in advancing women through gender diversity on their boards of directors and in management.” It will track an index of 125 to 150 stocks that have been culled from the Russell 1000 index and have scored high on a scale of gender metrics.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/05/your-money/in-fledgling-exchange-traded-fund-striking-a-blow-for-women.html?ref=your-money&_r=0
  • A History Of Mutual-Fund Doors Opening And Closing
    FYI: Since MFO's The Shadow keeps us up to date on fund openings and closing of funds, I'm relinking a 10 month old article on the subject by WSJ Jason Zweig. MFO's David Snowball comments on why fund compaines are reluctant to close a fund.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2015/04/24/a-history-of-mutual-fund-doors-opening-and-closing/
  • Fund Manager Focus: Andrew Foster, Manager, Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income Fund
    Almost $1 billion under management. Hopefully it is not hot money which will bail at the first sign of underperformance. I am assuming that Andrew knows how to handle so much recent inflows.
  • Money Market Funds
    They're still not competitive with bank money market accounts (and have more risk to boot), but they are beginning to show signs of life.
    Vanguard's Prime MMF (Investor class) VMMXX now has a 7-day yield of 0.40%. The closest Fidelity Prime MMF, i.e. one that mere mortals can afford, is Fidelity Money Market Fund. It comes in Premium Class (FZDXX) yielding 0.36% with a $100K min ($10K for IRAs) and $10K min balance requirement, and "regular" class (SPRXX) yielding 0.24%.
    These are all "prime" funds, meaning that come October they will have to impose liquidity constraints. In times of stress they may impose a redemption fee, hold your money up to 10 business days, or some combination of those.
    Fidelity's old prime fund, Cash Reserves (FDRXX) has been promoted (or downgraded, depending on your point of view) to a government fund. No liquidity constraints, but no yield either (0.03%).
    Muni MMFs are stuck at 0.01%, suggesting that a move to taxable MMFs (for now) is in order for cash you keep at a brokerage. Sweep accounts seem to be paying under 10 basis points: Fidelity's is at 0.07%, Schwab Bank yields 0.10% for savings accounts, less for checking.
    Here's iMoneyNet's list of top yielding retail MMFs (so it excludes classes like FZDXX):
    http://www.imoneynet.com/retail-money-funds/