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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Larry Swedroe: Unconstrained Bond Funds: Not Worth The Risks
    FYI: Faced with a low interest rate environment since the financial crisis of 2008, many investors have begun to seek higher returns than those available from safe fixed-income investments such as Treasuries and FDIC-insured CDs. The ongoing pursuit for higher bond returns has led many investors to investments known as “unconstrained” bond mutual funds (also referred to as multi-sector, absolute return, strategic income and opportunistic fixed income). In 2010, these funds attracted more than $170 billion in assets. In the succeeding four years, assets in unconstrained bond funds rose to $223 million, $275 million, $416 million and $462 million, respectively.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://mutualfunds.com/news/2016/04/12/unconstrained-bond-funds-not-worth-the-risks/
    M*: Mulitsector Bond Fund Returns:
    :http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/multisector-bond/$FOCA$MU.aspx
  • Big Banks begin the confessional--- everyone to the $FAZ-mobile?
    @heezsafe:Yes, the banks will be having a bad quarter, but as 15% of the S&P 500 the financial sector will be supported by the other sectors. A rising tide lifts all boats. Are you predicting this ?
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Big Banks begin the confessional--- everyone to the $FAZ-mobile?
    Well, the Big Banks(ters) begin their walks to the confessional today, and it's not lookin' good.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-banking-results-idUSKCN0X70VU
    Analysts forecast a 20 percent decline on average in earnings from the six biggest U.S. banks, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data. Some banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), are expected to report the worst results in over ten years. [...] Investors will get some insight on Wednesday, when earnings season kicks off with JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), the country's largest bank. That will be followed by Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) on Thursday, Citigroup Inc (C.N) on Friday, and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, in the following week.
    Is it time for the adventurous to climb into the FAZmobile and burn some rubber? :)
    http://howardlindzon.com/the-banks-are-crashing-everyone-to-the-fazmobile/
    http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/FAZ/quote.html
    On a more serious note, in addition to possibly the worst bank reports since the Great Recession started, just what in the world is going on this week with the other bank-related intrigue? Emergency closed-door meetings, bail-in for European bank, Italy at edge of NPL cliff (is jig finally up?), etc.
    http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/what-is-happening-to-banks/
    Just about every major banker and finance minister in the world is meeting in Washington, DC, this week, following two rushed, secretive meetings of the Federal Reserve and another instantaneous and rare meeting between the Fed Chair and the president of the United States. These and other emergency bank meetings around the world cause one to wonder what is going down. Let’s start with a bullet list of the week’s big-bank events:
    * The Federal Reserve Board of Governors just held an “expedited special meeting” on Monday in closed-door session.
    * The White House made an immediate announcement that the president was going to meet with Fed Chair Janet Yellen right after Monday’s special meeting and that Vice President Biden would be joining them.
    * The Federal Reserve very shortly posted an announcement of another expedited closed-door meeting for Tuesday for the specific purpose of “bank supervision.”
    * A G-20 meeting of finance ministers and central-bank heads starts in Washington, DC, on Tuesday, too, and continues through Wednesday.
    * Then on Thursday the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund meet in Washington.
    * The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta just revised US GDP growth for the first quarter to the precipice of recession at 0.1%.
    * US banks are widely expected this week to report their worst quarter financially since the start of the Great Recession.
    * The European Union’s new “bail-in” procedures for failing banks were employed for the first time with Austrian bank Heta Asset Resolution AG.
    * Italy’s minister of finance called an emergency meeting of Italian bankers to engage “last resort” measures for dealing with 360-billion euros of bad loans in banks that have only 50 billion in capital.
  • Very happy with Seafarer(SFGIX) but any other suggestions
    @prinx:
    SFGIX is currently the most attractive actively managed EM equity fund. But to avoid manager risk over the next 10-20 years with the additional kicker of a significant cost advantage, I would favor the inexpensive EEMV (0.25% ER vs. 1.15% net ER for SFGIX). FWIW, the index for this ETF has backtested very well:
    Backtest Data EEMV
    Also, even though SFGIX has outperformed EEMV since its inception on 2/15/2012, I have more confidence in the much longer backtested data since 2002 for the underlying index of EEMV.
    As always, I agree with Ted that investors need only one EM equity fund. If, by chance, you are a fiddler or optimizer, as I am, I would consider adding one country-specific EM ETF which is particularly undervalued to either SFGIX or EEMV. That ETF would be RSX according to this site that I monitor regularly:
    http://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php
    Kevin
  • Any thoughts on High Yield Muni Funds?
    @DanHardy OK, I got it--- supply of new issue munis increases in the Spring and tends to be a negative on muni prices (thereby possibly presenting a better buying opportunity on the pullback). Also, munis have their own yield curve; and with things the way they are now, if interest rates were to rise, the long end and not the short end is the area less likely to be affected (the opposite of Treasuries).
    http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2016/04/11/tactical-opportunities-in-muni-etfs-this-spring/
    First, given the steepness of the municipal bond yield curve, he thinks Market Vectors AMT-Free Interm Muni (ITM) makes sense since investors will benefit from higher yields in this steep part of the yield curve. But if the Federal Reserve starts to seem like it will raise interest rates again soon, the municipal yield curve is likely to flatten. At that point, he thinks it will make sense for investors to move out to a longer duration ETF like Market Vectors AMT-Free Long Muni (MLN).
    http://www.vaneck.com/blogs/muni-nation/utility-and-sensibility-april-2016/
    It is important to understand that seasonal shifts in supply and changes in the yield curve can impact a municipal bond’s total return and present investors with tactical opportunities. For the first quarter, according to Barclay’s, their Municipal Bond Index returned a positive 1.67%. Taking into consideration the seasonal supply/demand trends that have prevailed during the second quarter for the last 15 years suggest that favorable entry points may potentially become available.

  • Very happy with Seafarer(SFGIX) but any other suggestions
    Hi, Mona.
    Because risk moderation is generally tax-inefficient and for some of the asset classes that interest me (Asia income, for example) there aren't any tax-efficient vehicles. You could try to invest in low-beta stocks and a low-turnover fund, but that's sort of working at the edges of risk reduction.
    So I keep good records, absorb the tax hit now and might book a taxable loss (as in the case of Artisan Small Cap Value) when I eventually sell.
    Cheers,
    David

    Hi David,
    Thanks for the explanation and I understand the choices.
    I too have been hurt by the likes of Artisan (ARTMX) in the past few years with a poor returns and a big tax bill (on the way for the same in 2016), so I have mostly gravitated to Index and muni bond funds in my non-retirement account.
    I certainly am not saying ARTMX offers any risk moderation (just the opposite high SD) like SFGIX and MACSX, but I have become very shy about putting any more actively managed funds in my non-retirement account. And the dilemma is, my non-retirement account is larger than my retirement account. I fill up my retirement account with other tax-inefficient funds (PIMIX, DBLTX, MACSX, PTIAX, VWEAX and one or two others), but the point is I have less room and have become conscious of asset location.
    So now in some ways I let the tax tail wag the dog, but I sleep better if I continue to build my non-retirement account with funds that are tax-efficient, with a low ER and give me market returns.
    I have owned ARTMX since 2006 in my non-retirement account, reinvested dividends each year (except last year), and like you did with ARTVX, I just need to bring myself to cutting the cord and before the November capital gain distribution.
    Best Regards,
    Mona
  • Some Good News
    Let me be the first to mention that Fairholme is up 7.51% today - and yes, it's for real.
    Bruce is getting pretty close to zero for 2016.
  • Fido Transportation Fund (PSRFX) and Norfolk Southern/Canadian Pacific discussions
    @hawkmountain: Here the nuts and bolts of the the on again off again merger. Norfolk is 3% of FSRFX and will have little if any long term impact on the fund.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/04/11/canadian-pacific-railway-norfolk-southern/82884876/
  • Hello ! Hello! Is There Anyone There ? Calling NO BS Ron Muhlenkamp: From White House To Out House
    Hi Guys,
    Charles, thank you for the atta-boy. Although I don’t always agree with the positions that Junkster advocates, I always respect his analysis and his clear communications of those positions. Indeed, good, actionable stuff.
    I overstated my position when I claimed I draw a completely blank slate when having access to superior investors. That is not true. Although I do not have direct contact, I do have access to the combined wisdom of both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. This tandem is gifted, talented investors with an impressive track record,. Mutual funds that I own have shares in their Berkshire Hathaway operation.
    Munger, like Buffett, learned from the wisdom of Benjamin Graham’s classroom lectures at Columbia. Here is a terrific Link that summaries some of that wisdom by way of their succinct sayings:
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/chanderchawla/2015/05/07/the-wit-and-wisdom-of-warren-buffett-and-charlie-munger/#be2c8599ba67
    The article is a collection of some of their wit and wisdom expressed at a recent conference, but gained across several decades of experience, talks, and papers. Enjoy.
    Best Wishes.
  • Oakmark Equity Income Fund - OAKBX
    @bee - Interesting graphic
    Can't help wondering ...
    How many investors sold BRUFX around 2002 and bought OAKBX based on OAKBX's preceding 5 years' outperformance?
    Than moved back into BRUFX around '07 based on its preceding 5 years' outperformance?
    Than dumped BRUFX again in early '09 in favor of OAKBX, after sensing that their fund's drawdown over the preceding 1-2 years (a period of financial panic) had been much greater peak to trough than that of OAKBX?
  • Clients Pull Cash From Sequoia Fund Investor, Get Stock Instead
    To be clear - a stock, no matter how good or bad, is valued at the current market price. ISTM that liquidity/volatility is the most important factor in what stocks the fund hands over to its investors redeeming in kind. That's why pro-rata loses.
    Here's an extremely simplified example to demonstrate what I'm trying to say:
    Fund contains just two stocks A and B in equal value. Let's say 1,000 shares of A and 1,000 shares of B, both stocks priced at $100.
    Stock A is a thinly traded stock and any sale immediately triggers a 12% drop in stock price. Stock B is a huge company and its price barely moves when the shares in the fund are sold off. (1,000 shares are a drop in the bucket for this huge company).
    The fund gets redemption requests for 1/4 of the fund.
    If the fund distributes pro-rata (250 shares of A, 250 shares of B), it will still have a 50/50 mix of A and B. Because the investors are busy selling off their shares, A will drop in value by 12%. So the fund's total value (and NAV) will drop by 6% (half the fund is in A).
    If the fund distributes just A shares, then it's left with 1/3 in A shares (500 shares), and 2/3 in B shares (1,000 shares). Now when the investors sell off their A shares, the fund's A shares (1/3 of the fund) will drop by 12%. So the fund's total value will drop by just 4%, rather than the 6% had it distributed pro-rata.
    The redeeming investors are the ones that are disproportionately hurt - instead of getting a 50/50 mix of stock (that would drop 6% as they tried to sell the shares), they got all A shares that dropped 12% in value as they hit the market.
  • Vanguard Account
    I'm doing the same thing for the same reasons and it's been an ongoing process. I downloaded the forms and sent them in no issues. They created the account with only one trustee when there were 2 on the form. It took 2 weeks to find that out as they kept telling me they didn't receive the forms. Another 10 days to correct the mistake. Then I found out I could only buy mutual funds so I'm trying to make it a brokerage account. 10 days waiting for the paper work, likely 10 days back. Fidelity got all this done in a week. I'm still sticking with it because I want someone to have easy access to the balanced funds they offer in case I die but if it was just for me I would get my money back and stick with Fidelity only.
    They told me they don't use email in matters concerning a trust account so that has been a big issue with Vanguard. I commonly use email with Fidelity. I see where Dennis1 says they used email with him but that's what they are telling me and I have received no email from them at all. They have point blank refused to use email and attach any documents. It would seem they would have at least notified me right away when the account was set up so I could get the number and send some more money. I'm not impressed at all. Junk like this Fidelity has over nighted both ways at their expense.
  • Oakmark Equity Income Fund - OAKBX
    BRUFX vs OAKBX
    Since OAKBX inception... a picture is worth a thousand dollars (minimum investment):
    image
  • Q&A With Bill Gross: Why Interest Rates Must Rise
    AndyJ: Investors in Annaly Capital Management didn't take too kindly at first to Monday's news that the real estate investment trust had struck its biggest deal yet: Shares of the company, which invests in mortgage debt, fell as much as 2.4 percent. By afternoon, shareholders were starting to come around and the stock had mostly recovered -- for good reason.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-04-11/annaly-capital-deal-may-prompt-mortgage-reit-consolidation?cmpid=yhoo.headline
  • Q&A With Bill Gross: Why Interest Rates Must Rise
    Annaly didn't move a lot, but Gundlach started recommending it months ago and it's already had a very nice run. Not saying those last two points are necessarily related 1:1 ...
  • Very happy with Seafarer(SFGIX) but any other suggestions
    @prinx Very happy...but any other suggestions
    Smoking out the right way to invest in the marijuana movement
    Advisers keeping their distance from high-flying pot stocks
    By Jeff Benjamin | April 11, 2016 - 1:20 pm EST
    InvestmentNews
    Meanwhile, it is easy to understand how some could get caught up in the pot-investing buzz.
    There are literally dozens of cannabis-related companies already trading over the counter, and many of them share similarly volatile stock-price histories.
    “It seems clear that cannabis is on the way to becoming legal across the country, either for medical or recreational use,” said Chris Chen, a wealth strategist at Insight Financial Strategists.
    “However, given that there are still a number of legal uncertainties regarding cannabis, an investment in that field would be classified as aggressive,”
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160411/FREE/160419993?template=printart
  • Q&A With Bill Gross: Why Interest Rates Must Rise
    @MFO Members: One of my core holding for income is one of Bill's recommendation NLY. They just purchased Hatteras Mortgage that bodes well for future earnings, and with a 11.5% yield should be given serious consideration.
    Regards,
    Ted