It is that time of year when many investors dial down their equity allocation and raise their fixed income side of their portfolio if they play the traditional seasonal investment strategy known as "Sell in May and Go Away." Throw in the current geopolitical risk and you now have a good number of investors rebalancing towards risk off assets. Anyway, this is how I am currently viewing things.
The Sell in May strategy is linked below for those that would like to read about it.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp
Old_Skeets market barometer closed Easter Monday with a reading of 146 down from Thursday's reading of 150. Over the past 21 trading days the barometer's reading has averaged a reading of 143 indicating stocks on average have been overvalued by about five percent during the period. The barometer readings have ranged from a low of 139 to a recent high of 150. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in S&P 500 Index while a lower reading indicates less investment value. As recent stock market prices have been falling the barometer reading has been rising. To me, this is indicating that even with an improved earnings outlook the geopolitical risk has many investors concerned and they are moving towards risk off assets of government bonds and the defensive stock sectors.
Since, the recent March 1st stock market high I have been averaging down my allocation to stocks and increasing my fixed side comprised of bond funds, hybrid income funds and cash which includes CD's.
By calendar, its that time of year ... and, then throw in the current geoplotical risk leaves the Dog Days of Summer ahead.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dog_days
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

FYI: Wall Street looked set for a downbeat open Tuesday, as concerns over this weekend’s French election and U.S.-North Korea tensions kept a lid on U.S. stock futures.
Regards,
Ted
U.S.:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-set-for-losses-as-french-election-jitters-weigh-on-markets-2017-04-18/print
Europe:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-lower-as-miners-suffer-french-election-approaches-2017-04-18/print
Asia:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-off-to-slow-start-after-holiday-weekend-2017-04-17/print
Current Futures: Negative
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

Hi @Junkster,
S&P 500:
Jan 1, 1984 166.40
Jan 1, 1983 144.30
Jan 1, 1982 117.30
Jan 1, 1981 133.00
Jan 1, 1980 110.90
I have not dug through old data, but recall the end of August in 1982 as the turn around and the beginning of the upward run in U.S. equity after the beating of the mid-1970's.
An aside note, not directly related and may not be of any value, but the mid range of the boomers in 1992 was about 36 years old finding decent average earning/wage power at the time for perhaps the next 20 years before the slow turn down in earning power. Boomers, of course, have entered into the retirement phase and others entering at a 10,000/day rate, being 4 million/year. The reported birth numbers from 1946-1964 for the U.S. was about 76 million. A question as to whether there is enough money among this group to help support either equity or bond markets to the positive side. We here have read the reports of low savings rates for many boomers; and so there may not be enough power in this group to support any market area(s). The flip side being that the output/withdrawal period is in play, versus the prior period of input/investing. Whose/what money is going to support this withdrawal in order to support equity/bond returns to the positive side going forward???
Bond yield range: The current yields below have remained in this spread range for some time now; being about .6%; and traveling together. I do not recall any breakout in the 30 year to extend the yield above and beyond this .6% spread from the 10 year, for at least the past 6 months to 1 year period. For my non financial background and IMHO; I read this as continued low inflation as well as other twitches and wiggles, which may be related to high equity valuations and the big money (pension funds, foreign central banks, etc.) still maintaining "safe ground" and purchases while Euro area bond yields remain very low.
10 Year 2.25%
30 Year 2.90%
Note: most investment grade bonds lost a small piece of price ground today.
A few late in the day musings.
Take care,
Catch

@MFO Members: Here is Gundlach's 10-year bond yield predication.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-04/gundlach-says-bond-rally-to-continue-with-10-year-yield-falling

I have to admit I am impressed. Just like at the beginning of 2014 when 99.99% were saying bonds (10 yield Treasuries) were on their way to 4% (they were 3% at the time) Gundlach was the sole dissenter and predicting bonds were headed back to 2%. This time around when bonds recently hit 2.55% to 2.60% just about everyone was saying it would be a non stop rise to 3%. But Mr Gundlach again was a dissenter saying they would first trade below 2.25% before resuming their journey to 3%. They are 2.22% as we speak.
I guess the surprise here would be they never get close to 3% and fall below 2% or stay in the current range of 2.20 to 2.50%. I am not sure what has been the story of 2017 - the resilience of stocks or bonds. I am also wondering if there is some secular shift underway where bonds may trade in a low yield range for years to come. And that is from the baby boomers seeking safer and less volatile investments in retirement as they rotate out of equities. It sure has been a boom for the early boomers since 1982. It's liked they all woke up one day and began worrying about retirement shoveling money into stocks. Maybe now they are waking up again and shoveling money into bonds.

Hmm....Lack of "fiducuary rule" also caused investors $17B annually...
Question - Does anyone fact check such reports? I mean I'm not saying this is not a problem, but I just wonder...

NTF at Vanguard.
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/fees/K166?FundIntExt=EXT
But it appears to entail special handling rather than go through the usual channels. The clue is that buying or selling takes three days to settle. Typically funds settle in one day, at least if the brokerage has a working relationship with the fund sponsor.
For example, here's the comparable page @Vanguard for PRDSX (1 day settlement):
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/fees/1643?FundIntExt=EXT

Looks like this may not be a fund that's widely available on decent terms for the average diy investor anyway: PXSGX is institutional, $100k minimum, and PSGAX, the A shares, aren't load waived at Fidelity - possibly elsewhere tho.

VSCIX and PRDSX. AND MSCFX.
Vanguard, TRP, Mairs and Power.
In order, 5-year performance:
V +13.22/22nd percentile.
TRP +13.82/7th percentile.
M&P +15.64/1st percentile. (M&P fund is currently CLOSED)
Small-caps are NOT "on fire" these days....

Thanks @Ted,
I also like BCSIX. Presently closed, but I'm outside waiting for it to reopen. Concentrated in Tech and HC.
Anyone else have a favorite concentrated small cap?
Here's a 10 yr comparison between PXSGX and BCSIX:

@Old_Joe,
Thanks for commenting.
I added a note to my 1st post and it got me thinking about you out in SF...remember the movie Duel? I think it's time for a remake of this classic with an autonomous truck.

Thanks @LewisBraham,
Just some comments on your article:
The process of digitization does not create information, it codes information. You have to first have information to code it.
Information is digitized by first using analog input devices (keyboards, microphones, scanners, etc). These analog devices allow us as humans to digitize our information. So "digitization" is the process of analog data becoming digital data and the heart of this is the micro-processor.
edit: I'll agree with Old_Joe that more and more of this digitizing is done without human input. For me, passing a driverless truck on the (Florida, Ohio, Penn turnpike etc) sometime this year will feel like seeing a headless horsemen.
competition-heats-up-in-race-to-put-self-driving-trucks-on-the-road/
The micro-processor stores (forever) and processes (tirelessly) digital information in a multitude of ways and it truly is on an exponential technology journey. Its capacity to store and process more and more information into smaller and smaller spaces and do this at faster and faster speeds is truly mind blowing. No less mind blowing than when the first digital processor and its controllers (of Electro-Mechanical devices) output audible sound (to speakers), written word (to printers), and, as the article alluded to, CAD drawings into 3D printed models.
Our car, home, and work place will soon have the same digitization as our cell phone.
More and more of us are swept up as consumers of this digital world and access is not free when these devices overwhelm our privacy and influence our decision making.
Couples who have lived together for a very long time finish each others sentences (and thoughts) and we think its cute. My concern is that with all of this digitization, these seemingly free apps observes us...learns our ways... and before we know it they are finishing our thoughts quite possibly influence they way we think.
I call it front running, but instead of front running stocks its people's thoughts and actions.
I guess this type of thinking is a bit 1984 of me, but I think...or do I?

Good stuff.
Thank you BenWP.
I think long-term investing using balanced allocations is a perfectly satisfactory strategy.
By long-term I mean ... a life time.
I like for example the 50/50 portfolio of BBALX and FFNOX referenced in our December commentary.
FFNOX is Fidelity's Four In One 85/15 stock/bond allocation. Combined with BBALX, the portfolio produces a 75/25 equity/bond global allocation.
Here is break-down using Morningstar's Allocation tool:

Perhaps more conservative, a 50/50 stock/bond allocation would similarly reward long term investors handsomely. Say, 1/3 each to BBALX, FFNOX, and FTBFX:

Several such combinations possible, of course, like the one suggested above by billr. It depends on your platform (Schwab, TIFF, USAA), fund house preference (Vanguard, Fidelity), etc. Just be sure fees are low!
Holding 1, 2, or 3 such funds is a perfectly acceptable approach, even over new platforms like Betterment, which charge 0.25% annually on top of underlining fund fees.
Put on auto investment (making sure there are no recurring transaction fees) and forget about it ... for a life time.
From a strategy approach, I would have no problem even recommending 50/50 to BBALX and MASFX, except the expense of the latter (and most alternative funds) makes it harder for me to recommend as a significant part of a life time portfolio.
I have similar reservation with fees of AKREX and HIMVX, but that's just me ... I always cringe when a mutual fund charges more than 1%.
My two cents.
c

Weirdest interview ever:

Of (writer meant "If") you talk to advisors in the field or experts in technology, experts in the field, they're talking about the latest financial planning software, or the hot new rebalancing product. They're not talking about exponential technologies, which is an entirely different conversation.
So most people are unaware of the field of exponential technologies, and have no knowledge that this ETF exists, or why it’s different from all the others. I think for both of those reasons, it’s not on the radar of many in the industry.

My question as the reader, "What is Exponential Technology?"
Edelman can use the term, but nowhere in the article does he (or the interviewer) define it. Nor does he explain how he filters for ET when he buys companies that have it.
Some how 197 companies appear to have it according to his EFT XT's portfolio. The top ten holdings amount to a mere 6% of the EFT's AUM...not very concentrated.
He personally (I assume Edelmen Financial) holds 75% of the EFT (down from 100% when he created it the ETF). I will assume it has been pedaled quite heavily to his "sheeple" (who I'm sure have heard of it).
I've heard enough, I'll pass.
In XT's short history (2 years) it appears less impressive than "Unexponential Technology" ETF, QQQ:

FYI: Ric Edelman, founder and chairman of Edelman Financial Services, has published eight books. His latest, “The Truth About Your Future: The Money Guide You Need Now, Later, and Much Later,” targets the future of personal finance and what investors need to know for the technological revolution already occurring around us.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/edelman-truth-about-your-future?nopaging=1
M* Snapshot XT:
http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/XT/quote.html

FYI: Fee inefficiency and waste are hamstringing 401(k) participants’ retirement chances, a report says..
Americans give up at least $17 billion a year by choosing expensive investments within their workplace retirement plans, according to a recent report from New York-based RiXtrema, which provides portfolio crash-testing and other risk management tools to advisors.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.fa-mag.com/news/expensive-fund-menus-cost-401-k--participants--17-billion-annually-32295.html?print

Hi Guys,
I completely agree with Old Joe that " life will inevitably throw you a curve ball or some of your assumptions will prove to be untrue."
Indeed curve balls happen. One advantage of using Monte Carlo tools is that they improve the odds of hitting those curve balls by preparing you with multiple what-if scenario outcomes and providing the odds of their likely occurrence. With those odds, a plan can be formulated that tilts those odds to favor a successful retirement.
And indeed adjustments will be needed as the unexpected happens. Flexibility is always an essential key to survival. In the Monte Carlo code that I developed, if a portfolio failure approached a likelihood, withdrawal rates were slowly reduced to alleviate that likelihood with a minimum impact on lifestyle. These adjustments are easily examined using the Monte Carlo tool.
I am not the Lone Ranger in advocating this easy-to-use tool. About a month ago, Ben Carlson also promoted its utility in an article that listed "the best free tools on the Internet". Here is the Link to that excellent article:
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/03/the-best-free-investing-tools-on-the-internet/
Carlson and I are on the same page since both he and I urged a visit to the Portfolio Visualizer website. A great mind and a not so great mind can sometimes find common ground.
As Alan Lakein observed: "Failing to plan is planning to fail".
Best Wishes

Carnac says -3% this year.

@Lewis: Please, stop taking all the fun out of life ! Here is the Bogleheads contest for 2017.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/

@Old[_Skeet: I think the S&P 500 will finish the year at 2576, up 10% from its present number.
Regards,
Ted