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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Ben Carlson: Preparing For The Next Bear Market
    Background reminder for the APR-OCT 2011, -19.4% twitch. S&P for the first time, in April, 2011; indicated a possible AAA credit rating warning for the U.S.; and the Fed. budget event (see link below). Also, keep in mind that much of Europe and other global markets were still attempting to sort whether to open/continue the QE flood gates or to do the austerity path a bit longer......i.e., Europe. You have not forgotten how often Greece was in the Euro Zone news, eh? This time frame was still a very "twitchy" period, as the market melt was still fresh in the investment community mind.
    Technically, the -19.4% fits the bear market guidelines; and one may suppose it doesn't matter what the trigger(s).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Ben Carlson: Preparing For The Next Bear Market
    VF...the chart within the article references a bear market event spanning APR-OCT 2011, so the 6 years is from that specific point in time.
  • our April issue is posted
    One more question:
    >>"AMG Managers Cadence Emerging Companies Fund (MECAX) announced an unusually large reduction in their management fee, from 1.25% to 0.69% as of June 1, 2017. At the same time, the expense ratio cap will fall from 1.42% to 0.89%."
    According to M*, the fund has expense ratio of 1.65% (not 1.42%) on the small assets of just $62.4M. Another M* discrepancy?
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/MECAX/quote.html
    Regards.
  • our April issue is posted
    Hi David,
    Thanks for the great commentary.
    In the "Launch Alert: 361 US Small Cap Equity ASFQX" section, the commentary mentions that:
    >>The “I” class shares of the fund carry 1.26% expense ratio, with a $2,500 minimum initial purchase. “Investor” shares have the same minimum but carry a 12(b)1 fee of 0.25%.
    According to Morningstar the min. investment for the "I" class (ASFZX) is $100,000:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/asfzx/quote.html
    Is this a discrepancy between M* and the fund prospectus or the fund web site?
  • As Passive Investing Grows Bloomberg Terminal Suffers

    "Passive fund managers have no need for the comprehensive fundamental data provided by the Bloomberg terminal and as active managers look to cut costs, reducing the number of high cost terminals will likely be the first action taken to reduce spending."
    No, managers of INDEX FUNDS (which happen to be passive) don't need a Bloomie terminal since they're just replicating whatever the index does. A fund with a turnover of 15% or less, in my view, is pretty 'passive' and the data provided by a Bloomie terminal can be quite helpful to them.
    I respectfully submit that "passive" does not always mean "index fund."
  • Ben Carlson: Preparing For The Next Bear Market
    @PRESSmUP Can you tell why you saying "6" I thought it is more like "8" right? Unless you are saying there was a substantial correction before 2011? I didn't think it was anything more spectacular than 2015. I believe consensus is our last bull market began 2009 and which is why people are speculating 2017 will be the year of the bear.
  • Tax returns for Minors with Roth IRAs
    Hi @hawkmountain
    You noted that minor accounts have been opened, but have they been funded yet? I ask, as to avoid all of the theoretical tax "stuff"; to fund the accounts at $399. I note further down this page about record keeping to maintain with the minor accounts paperwork, which will include the receipt of a form 5498 for each minor Roth IRA.
    This first paragraph next is the common language found at many web sites. Obviously, opinion; but not legal advice. I'm sure you've seen this, too.
    If the wage is paid by you or other family members, just keep records that include the type of work, the date of completion, the employer, and the agreed upon wage. You can include work done around the house provided it is legitimate and the pay is at the going market rate.
    Implied with the above from a prior thread note I posted:
    "The important thing to remember is that your child must have earned income during the year for which a contribution is made. Money from allowance or investing income does not count as earned income and, therefore, cannot be used towards contributions. Ideally, your child will receive a W-2 for work performed; otherwise, it is a good idea to keep excellent records from jobs that don’t provide a W-2: babysitting, yard work, mothers’ helpers, entrepreneurial endeavors, etc. Your records should include:
    Type of work
    When the work was done
    For whom the work was done
    How much your child was paid"
    >>>Language from Fidelity custodial minor Roth IRA application form:
    Please note that in order to open and contribute to this
    account, the minor must have taxable compensation equal to
    or greater than the amount of the annual contributions made
    to his/her IRA each year. Please review IRS publication 590-A
    for a definition of taxable compensation.

    >>> From a section of the application regarding the minor:
    Income Source Industry regulations require us to ask for this information.
    Employed: Self-employed: (check one of these)
    Occupation Employer Leave blank if self-employed.
    Employer Address
    City State/Province ZIP/Postal Code Country
    Not employed: (this is also an available check box at the end of this section....one may suppose to use this if the above, Employed or Self-employed; are not check, eh? I don't know whether Fidelity would reject the application if one only checked this box for "Not employed", and then indicate the Source of Income, which has a "fill in the box" for your own comment about income source; i.e., yard work. This is very confusing, IMHO.
    Source of Income Spouse, etc.
    Ed Slott, minor Roth IRA site link here.
    ADD: YouTube a few videos... https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=roth+ira+for+minor
    @msf and his offering of the bankrate.com link is one of the better detailed descriptions I have read regarding the $400 limit.
    Lastly, I know all Fidelity IRA's now automatically include the brokerage feature. Is this the case for Vanguard? I ask, as this would allow for the purchase of etf's within the minor Roth accounts; otherwise contributing enough money over the years to attain a minimum for investment in a mutual fund would really throttle back the ability to have the wonderful affect of compounding for these accounts. Example: VTI is about $122/share to purchase and $399 would purchase 3 shares of VTI with $33 remaining to float in a MM account or to purchase another appropriate etf with the $33 balance.
    'Course, the guidelines (IRS); versus those who interpret many times have different paths. I do not find any IRS tax court cases related to minor Roth IRA accounts. And part of all of this too, is of course; this "income" is not generated and shown on a W-2 (yet) and that won't be the case until age 16 (child labor law, eh?) and when the minor may have employment that requires a W-2 filing.
    I know you are already on "overload" with all of this, but tis a good plan. Keep at it.......
    Take care,
    Catch
  • our April issue is posted
    Hi, guys.
    We posted last night but I didn't send out the notice until this morning; I still am uncomfortable bothering folks late on a weekend evening with "business."
    Stuff that's there:
    • my note on basketball and milestones, including ours and the markets
    • Ed's reflections on how the recent news from BlackRock, Morningstar, Templeton and elsewhere might foreshadow the industry's future
    • Bob C's discussion of how to think about creating a suitable income stream in retirement
      the story on Morningstar's new mutual fund series, including what (little) we know, what we don't and what we might speculate about
    • my profile of Northern Global Tactical Asset Allocation, which Morningstar finally got into the right peer group
    • Charles' profile of Litman Gregory Masters Alternative Strategies, which flows from his recent meetings with those folks in San Francisco
    • the first installment of Sam's profile of the Grandeur Peaks Global Stalwarts funds, where he shared the first 50% of the profile yesterday and aims to share the rest today
    • a Launch Alert for 361 US Small Cap Equity, a rare small cap that's driven by behavioral finance principles and that has a pretty solid record as a series of private accounts
    • coverage of a pretty stunning array of structural changes, including the marginalization of Mark Mobius, manager dismissals at BlackRock, the sale of one fund family and a host of rebrandings.
    Hope you find some worthwhile nuggets there.
    David
  • Tax returns for Minors with Roth IRAs
    This is not in my range of experience, but I got curious and took a quick look around.
    Most of what Skeet's report is saying is straight from the IRS (they say it's from Pub 17, but that in turn is from Pub 929.
    What caught my eye there, especially given hawkmountain's figures was the $400 threshold for self-employment income. That's earned income where you're not a W2 employee.
    Pub 929 (and The Balance) apparently say yes: "A dependent must also file a tax return if he or she ... Had net earnings from self-employment of at least $400"
    Bankrate.com (Teen Jobs and Tax Issues) gives this example: "She offered piano lessons and didn't make enough to file a tax return, but owed $80 in self-employment" (because of the $400 filing requirement)
    Even Kiplinger seems to say yes, at least in some columns:
    The IRS wants to know if your child has self-employment income, for example, from babysitting or mowing laws. Your teen must pay self-employment tax -- in addition to income tax-- if he earns more than $400. Your child will need to file Schedule SE to figure self-employment tax, which includes Social Security and Medicare taxes. The rate is 15.3% of net earnings.
    A more arcane question is whether the children have to register with the state as unincorporated businesses (as is typical for self-employed people). I haven't a clue.
  • As Passive Investing Grows Bloomberg Terminal Suffers
    FYI: It seems passive investing is even starting to hit the likes of the Bloomberg Terminal , which according to the Financial Times and research by Burton-Taylor International saw the number of its Bloomberg terminals drop by 3,145 in 2016, only the second time in history such a drop has been recorded. Morgan Stanley predicts that Bloomberg Terminal revenue could decline by billions over the next few years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/03/passive-investing-bloomberg-terminal/
  • Tax returns for Minors with Roth IRAs
    Hi Hawk,
    I'm thinking back years now ... and, I had to file a return on my son because of the amount of his unearned income. With this, I located an article that covers what tax payers must do. Scroll down to you come to dependents and also other situations that might apply.
    https://www.thebalance.com/are-you-required-to-file-a-tax-return-3192868
    I'm no tax expert now ... but, with them holding roth ira's I going to say yes so that the funding amount in the roths can be tracked along with the verification of earned income.
    Hope this helps ...
    Skeet
  • Tax returns for Minors with Roth IRAs
    Hi All! I opened Roth IRAs at Vanguard for my grandchildren, ages 12 and 8. They earned $842 and $432 in 2016 doing odd jobs around the neighborhood. Must they file a 1040, attach Schedules SE and C-EZ and pay the 15% social security/medicare tax? An afternoon of Excedrin-bolstered searching on the 'net produced the following murky results:
    1. Kiplingers says no, that a child under 18 performing part-time work as a household worker is exempt; being a student is their primary occupation, etc.
    2. Fairmark.com says yes, that the child is responsible for filing, with adult help if necessary.
    3. Fidelity's Roth IRA for Kids posting on their website says 'in some cases taxes may be due. Check with your tax advisor.'
    4. IRAKids.com, a sort of grass roots endeavor, advises filing and posts copies of the 1040, C-EZ, and SE.
    5. Vanguard will not offer tax advice.
    What's the story here? While I'm opposed to filing, I also do not want my daughter, who is serving as custodian, facing the warm fuzzy wrath of the IRS.
    Has anyone here had experience with this sort of thing? TIA
    best, hawk
  • Ben Carlson: Preparing For The Next Bear Market
    FYI: It’s easy to put it in the back of your mind when it seems like all stocks do is rise but it’s a question of when, not if, the next bear market will hit. No one can predict when they will strike but periods of rising stock prices are eventually followed by periods of falling prices. That’s how these things work. The goal is to be prepared before it happens, not after. Here’s a piece I wrote for Bloomberg on how to think about risk during the inevitable bear market.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/04/preparing-for-the-next-bear-market/
  • Bulletin !!! Fairholme Fund To Be Liquidated
    actually a more plausible scenario is for fairholme to go through the same scenario as third avenue credit fund. Another 1 billion out of the door and he may have to start selling illiquid assets. Good times.
  • Bulletin !!! Fairholme Fund To Be Liquidated
    @Ted ...........well, done. May be true before next April 1, eh?
    You may have triggered some here to "Google, collect call". :)
  • Bulletin !!! Fairholme Fund To Be Liquidated
    FYI: On pace for its third consecutive bottom-decile calendar-year finish and after nearly $5 billion in three-year net outflows, Fairholme Fund will be liquidated as the close of business on Monday April 3, 2017. Bruce Berkowitz, Fairholme manager, is expected to hold a news conference early Monday to announce the fund's liquidation. As soon as further details become available, you can be sure the Linkster will link the information to the MFO Discussion Board.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Gambling Is A Feature Of Capitalism—Not A Bug
    FYI: It has always been part of financial markets, from their origins in 17th-century coffee houses to the Great Crash of 2008.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/gambling-is-a-feature-of-capitalism-not-a-bug
  • Bear Market Indicator?: Margin Debt (yearly percent change)
    @bee. Yeah I think I heard someone say this on NPR couple of weeks back. Stock Prices have been influenced more because of cheap money funneled into buybacks rather than producing any economic benefit.
    But as you know, this time is different. Sure. We will have different percentage downturn in the stock market. There are times I feel it might be catastrophic if it does not happen until 3rd year of Presidency. 3rd years are when they pull out all stops to make sure things stay "good" while they are campaigning. Better take a 20% correction before 2018. If we wait till 2020, who knows what will happen.
    Also, didn't someone post article on MFO about subprime autoloan problem being the same size as the home subprime problem?
  • Investors Pour Into EM ETFs To Close Q1
    FYI: Friday is the last day of the first quarter, and one of the prominent themes of the first three months of 2017 has been the leadership displayed by emerging markets equities. With one trading day left in the quarter, the widely followed MSCI Emerging Markets Index is higher by almost 14 percent. Said another way, the combined gains of the S&P 500 and the MSCI EAFE Index do not equal that of the emerging markets benchmark.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-pour-into-em-etfs-to-close-q1-2017-03-31-7464558/print
  • Bear Market Indicator?: Margin Debt (yearly percent change)
    More on Stimulus/Credit tightening as well as hikes in interest rates:
    What is so disturbing is that each extra dollar of new debt now generates just $0.17 of extra GDP in the US, down from around $0.75 in the 1960s. Much of the corporate debt built up in this cycle has been to buy back stock or pay dividends.
    telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/26/sharpest-plunge-credit-since-financial-crisis-could-spell-disaster/