FMI International Fund to close to new investors To explain, I owned APPLX for a year or two in its early days when it was mainly an all-cap U.S. value fund, liked it a lot, and thought it might be a keeper then (thus the "still" in the earlier post), but imho, it really fell apart when they added Au as a permanent fixture and went international, which looked to me at the time to be beyond their sphere of competence. Hadn't checked it for a while, but now I see it's returned less than 1% annual for 3y, and the port looks pretty similar to what it was when the performance tanked a few years ago, so looks to me they haven't done much right lately, either.
So, I'm just not seeing much there to bank on going forward, but wondered if you might have some insight that's different from the view from this house.
Rondure site is up
DSE_X downside 'Manager execution' is different here, right?
CAPE alone has been backtested to '02, fwiw:
http://investwithanedge.com/new-barclays-shiller-cape-sector-rotation-etn... annualized return [['02-'12]] of +10.8% (adjusting for investor fees) with 19.6% standard deviation. For the same period, the S&P 500 Total Return Index gained +7.2% with a 21.2% standard deviation.
DSE_X downside 1. Don't know if it's an SEC requirement, but Have yet to read a recent mutual fund prospectus that does't show returns year-by-year dating back a full decade. When considering a new fund, that's one of the first things I look at. The '07-'08 global market debacle did us one service. It painted vividly how funds than in existence held up during the downturn. As Lewis rightly explains, each bear market is different. We need to be careful in making projections based on past performance. But I ike to look at the '07-'09 history.
2. For a newer fund like DSENX that record doesn't exist. I'm not sure it could be "mirrored" by looking at various asset classes at the time, since its performance appears highly dependent on manager execution.
3. I have purchased new funds for which '07-09 records weren't in existence. IMHO this requires a higher degree of confidence in management (based on track record) and an even better understanding of the fund's investment approach than might otherwise be needed. One such fund is RPGAX which I've owned almost since inception in 2013.
On the other hand, concerned about equity valuations and a narrowing spread between high quality and junk bonds, I recently sold OPPEX (Oppenheimer Capital Income). This is a normally low volatility fund which attempts to hedge market risk (equity and bond) in various ways. It's provided a smooth ride over the year I've owned it. However, in looking back at '07-'08, this otherwise low volatility income fund managed to shed 40% over 2 years (nearly 38% in '08). I'd started with a small commitment to the fund. As the amount grew (and markets evolved) I decided that the risk-reward profile wasn't suitable for my needs.
FWIW