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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    MRFOX is classified as Equity by Empower.
    I don't have any fixed allocation targets that I am trying to hit but fwiw, I do use PV to assess every few months if the projected returns of my portfolio will be better than a 60/40 like say VWELX or VBINX. Because imo if one can't beat these then what is the point of active portfolio management.
    Very broadly I have three themes in my portfolio -- cash flow, diversification(beyond stocks and bonds) and risk adjusted returns. Accordingly I pay close attention to and pick/cut positions on the basis of Yield %, Sortino Ratio and Correlation to SP500.
    Overall I'm not looking to blow the lights out but a (reasonably) steady return. I'll take the "steady" annual 8-10% over a range of -20% to 20%. So when I am using PV to fine tune the portfolio I'm also looking to manage to the Max DD.
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    @staycalm,
    Thanks.
    Your allocation info is what I was looking for to see how large an Alt allocation you have. I thought it might be easy for you to just copy and paste from your portfolio tracker and so I made a broader request.
    The purpose of the price movement request is to see how each of your Alts did today. I have a sense for how general equity and fixed income have performed today.
    I do not think I ever got to more than 15% in Alts. Of the many I tried, I had success with only one (QMNIX) because it trended for some time. I thought it was too much work and gave up on them for years. Instead I was happy just to dial up or down equity allocation and to go out on the credit spectrum - seemed less work for me. I got into QLEIX earlier this year and very recently into BLNDX - both meaningless size positions for me - I think my mental block is I need to be able to explain the price movement of what I own (the "too much work" comes from this mental friction).
    Do you include tactical allocation funds like MRFOX in equity or Alts?
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    Hey Balu,
    % allocation per position is a level of detail I'm not comfortable sharing. In broad strokes, here are some allocation metrics.
    Alts: 46% Includes Real Estate, Long Short, Market Neutral, Private Debt
    Equity: 33% Includes US, International, Private Equity and SMA
    Bonds: 21% Includes MMF and short term Treasuries
    As for up/down today here's a few of each but what is the purpose of this question? Is it because today was a huge down day? Below numbers come from my Empower dashboard, I haven't cross checked against brokerage account for accuracy
    Notable Ups Today
    - T: 5.22%
    - BiVIX: 1.91%
    - QMNIX: 0.10%
    Notable Downs Today
    - SPD: 2.16%
    - KRE: 1.83%
    - GENIX: 1.66%
    Overall across entire portfolio down 0.11% today but this number is somewhat meaningless because not all positions in my portfolio are marked daily.
  • MRFOX
    @BaluBalu,
    I could see over the next several years stepping into VELIX to be 10%-15% of the portfolio...I'm likely a couple years away from stepping away from the corporate work environment...who knows, still enjoying most days what I do...and am therefore in that danger zone, within 5 years of retirement (whatever that means, right?) and post 5 years retirement...I'm very very high in cash equiv's, like over 90%...works for me, wouldn't recommend it for most but I should be transparent and state my wife and I were in the highest tax bracket for quite a few years...so what we left on the table with the uptick in markets we overcame slippage of inflation with salary/bonus/stock options etc...fully acknowledge that I've been actually taking on risk by being too conservative but on days like this, I'm going for a bike ride this evening and not overly concerned about what the markets are doing...back in my younger days, in the 20's and 30's, was uber aggressive in the stock market...not anymore...
    Kind Regards,
    BF
  • How many funds is the right number?
    OK.
    Take 2.
    1 if you're a purest.
    2 if you're a traditionalist.
    3 if you're an experimentalist.
    5 if you're a conformist.
    More than 5 funds, you should have your keys taken away.
    c
    Excellent. I'm going to frame this. :-)
  • How many funds is the right number?
    An option to consider....allows you to carry more funds but bulk of returns still resides in top 3 and gives you time to watch 4-8 for clarity.
    Strongest conviction Fund A 25% allocation
    Second strongest conviction Fund B 25% allocation
    Third strongest conviction Fund C 25% allocation
    Four thru 8 Funds 5% each
    The cumulative performance 4-8 acts as a fourth fund.
  • on the failure of focus
    The key word in Random Walk was COULD but why would anyone do it?
    The SP500 or VTI beat most manage stock funds and definitely individuals over long term.
    Malakiel, Bogle, and Buffett all agree.
    Add to it the fact that these fund managers are trained professionals who work 40 hours weekly.
    So why buy individual stocks?
    I can see an exception such as, take 10% of your portfolio and buy 5 stocks and let them run for decades.
    I have a good friend who invest $3000 in several stocks in early 90s, all trailed the SP500, except MSFT who made him 1.5 million.
    --------
    Many still miss a point. VOO,VTI can also be one of the 3-5 funds you select.
    I never believed in holding your funds for decades because leading categories change, market change, and good managers can start lagging, the reasons don't matter, they just lag.
    Finally, the execution matters, when to switch or not.
  • MRFOX
    BF,
    I am reading your objective with VELIX is to beat SPY over a 5 yr period, starting now, which is a narrow, targeted focus than the broader theme you explained 2 days ago which prompted my suggestion to look at the broader fixed income space.
    What %age of your portfolio are you targeting VELIX and equities in general?
    BTW, I personally know people of 8 and 9 figure portfolios with 95% equity exposure. I also know people with 8 and 9 figure portfolios that are 100% in fixed income. Each group is motivated by maximizing their long-term wealth for the unit of Risk they take. The definition of Risk likely varies but they all play primarily in equity or below A rated credit.
  • MRFOX
    @BaluBalu...I already have a high majority of my investment portfolio in Tbills, US Treasury mmkt's, Tnotes 2 years or less and some CDs from major banks...am looking at VELIX for exposure to the stock market...not sure having shorts on all the time makes sense...I'd then just lower exposure to stocks and add to cash holdings.
    A better comparison set would be VELIX vs VFINX (Vanguard equiv to SP500), no?...and looking out over the next 5 years...I'd would and AM taking the VELIX side of that wager...we'll see...
  • MainStay name to change on numerous funds
    Consider yourself fortunate that you haven't been doing this for fifty years (or have you?)
    My father purchased shares of "One William Street" back when mutual funds issued certificates (image below not his certificate)
    image
    This was originally a fund run by Lehman. Subsequent owners due to mergers, sales of investment units, etc. were Lehman Brothers Kuhn Loeb Inc, Shearson Lehman Brothers, Shearson Lehman Hutton,

    Salomon Brothers, Salamon Smith Barney (under Travelers, then Citicorp), Smith Barney (under Citicorp),

    Legg Mason, and now Franklin Templeton.
    Fund family/fund name changes didn't always coincide with parent changes (as with Mainstay changing to NY Life).
    Fund names evolved from One William Street to Salomon Brothers Investors Fund, Salomon Brothers Investors Value Fund, Legg Mason Partners Investors Value Fund, Legg Mason Clearbridge Investors Value Fund, Legg Mason Clearbridge Large Cap Value Fund, Clearbridge Large Cap Value Fund. (The three Legg Mason names were in a span of just four years: 2009-2013.)
    Alas, same as it ever was. Yes, most of it is nonsense - the name changes, the mergers, the ads.
    I wrote a more detailed description of this fund's evolution a decade ago:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/21862/#Comment_21862
  • How many funds is the right number?
    OK.
    Take 2.
    1 if you're a purest.
    2 if you're a traditionalist.
    3 if you're an experimentalist.
    5 if you're a conformist.
    More than 5 funds, you should have your keys taken away.
    c
    Where's 4 ?
  • How many funds is the right number?
    OK.
    Take 2.
    1 if you're a purest.
    2 if you're a traditionalist.
    3 if you're an experimentalist.
    5 if you're a conformist.
    More than 5 funds, you should have your keys taken away.
    c
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu. The Invesco site is a bit thin on explaining methodology. However, the fund’s universe is the S&P Mid Cap 400, from which are chosen semi-annually some 80 stocks that exhibit characteristics of “momentum,” or rising prices. Not terribly surprising.
    Overlap with XMHQ is 52%, quite a lot. Thanks to @WABAC for reminding me to check ETFRC. Applying rules twice a year obviously does not require a lot of attention. Still, I wonder how that process results in a T.O. ratio of 132.
    https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?audienceType=Investor&ticker=XMMO
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @hank, Thanks for the additional insight into your thinking, including consumer staple substitution for long bonds. I like your skeptical take on what you read from fund manager and Barron. I agree that if someone is at it for 7.5 yrs and still has not completed the job, may be the job needs to be redefined!
    " I’m just touchy. Sorry."
    Completely understandable.
  • How many funds is the right number?
    3 or 4 or 5 just feels itchy and too concentrated for my own sensibilities. And my own Big Picture these days includes NOT adding to the IRA, because the "contributions" would be non-deductible. So, I'm focused on the taxable side, and there is much more freedom of choice over there, too. I've been very patient with my regional bank stock through the rate-hiking cycle; now that one is producing. I let my winners run. I also have a couple of holdings which are like afterthoughts; not much money invested in them. If they get me more money, I'll be glad. DIVIDENDS matter more than they used to, too. But still being reinvested.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu / I’m just touchy. Sorry.
    I don’t buy the turnaround story. What turnaround? LOL. The stock got overpriced a few years ago when consumer staples were hot as investments. Topped out over $135 in January 2022 and then began falling, dipping briefly below $100 about 5 or 6 weeks ago. Adding to the decline has been a very hot dollar which has appreciated for years now against the franc and other global currencies. If someone isn’t interested in taking a gambit on currencies they should avoid buying foreign stocks unless there’s some currency hedging.
    Also hurting has been the fear among investors “weight-loss” drugs will reduce the value of food companies. Perhaps well placed. But this misses that NSRGY is much larger than food, being in many consumer staples like pet food, bottled waters, cosmetics.
    List of Nestlie brands
    I bought in at around $102 a month or so ago. Sold at $105.54 10-12 days back. Jumped in at $105.62 this morning. My cash is mostly in a TOD account. Buying something in an IRA requires selling another security first. So, I really don’t have the luxury of sitting on a limit order for long because the security I sold might go out of reach. To me, whether I have 5% sitting in NSRGY or in an intermediate-long duration bond fund is of little consequence. If anything, a 10-year duration bond fund is probably more volatile than this stock and with a more limited return potential.
    Happy investing!
  • How many funds is the right number?
    The answer - 11 (prime number).
    Why stop at 11, 13, 17, and 19 are also prime numbers.
    But I like your Prime thing and why I have used 2,3 in the last several years and 5 for many years.