FYI: Turn the message of ‘America Saves Week’ into an everyday habit.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/be-smart-about-saving-money-now-and-avoid-financial-worries-later-2016-03-03/print

@NumbersGal,
With all due respect to you and David, I continue to see absolutely nothing attractive about ARIVX or ICMAX. With current 82% and 67% cash positions, respectively, an investor in these funds are paying dearly (1.42% and 1.40% ER) for funds primarily investing in cash. And one is therefore deriving the diversifying benefits of owning cash but not small cap value equities.
For domestic SC exposure, I continue to favor VSTCX and VTMSX, which are both low cost and consistent performers.
Kevin

Deleted my original draft write to this thread when it entered the closed status and was stuck in the land of 1's and 0's.
No longer in the mood to comment on the March commentary.
See some of you on the other side.

FYI: The Vanguard Group is expanding its line of popular dividend exchange traded funds to include two international options that mirror U.S.-focused offerings.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etftrends.com/2016/03/vanguard-unveils-new-international-etf-options/
Vanguard Press Release:
https://pressroom.vanguard.com/press_release/Press_Release_Vangaurd_launches_international_dividend_index_funds_030216.html

Better to Inquire about investment ideas @ M F O than some of these advisors !
There's a phrase no one wants to read in a sweeping report about the financial advisers who handle their savings: economy-wide misconduct.
By Bloomberg News | March 1, 2016 - 4:28 pm EST
A new working paper by business school professors at the University of Chicago and University of Minnesota found that 7% of financial advisers have been disciplined for misconduct that ranges from putting clients in unsuitable investments to trading on client accounts without permission. That's a troubling mark for an industry that relies on the trust of clients. And some large, well-regarded firms have misconduct records that far exceed the average.
Many fired advisers end up moving to firms that have higher rates of misconduct than their previous employer did, and they become repeat offenders. "Prior offenders are five times as likely to engage in new misconduct as the average financial adviser," the study found.
"This is eye-opening and suggests not only that some firms have a high tolerance for misconduct on the part of their employees, but that their very business model is to attract the broker who can generate high revenue at the cost of repetitive disciplinary violations," said John Coffee, a professor at Columbia Law School in New York. "FINRA needs to focus on this."
Many cases of misconduct arose around the issue of the "suitability" of investments. That would mean, for instance, that an adviser should not suggest that a 75-year-old client put most assets in a high-fee, aggressive-growth mutual fund. Often, the report found, investments involved in reported misconduct cases were insurance products.
The first-of-its-kind study names names, listing 10 advisory firms with the highest misconduct rates, as well as those with the lowest.

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160301/FREE/160309989?template=printart
@Shostakovich
I own this fund in the Global Bond space you mention.DHGAX
Assets for the Fund
$2,133,975,285
Holdings
206
Dividend Frequency
Quarterly
Morningstar Category
World Bond
Lipper Category
Global Income
Average Maturity
8.30 Years
Duration
6.83 Years
30-Day Yield (as of
1/31/16)
Class A 1.27%
Class I 1.62%
TOP TEN SECURITIES1
Australian Govt 3.25% 10/21/2018 10.04%
Australian Government 3.25% 04/21/
2025 4.43%
Canadian Government, 2.25% 06/01/
2025 3.79%
Japan (30 Yr Issue) 1.7% 09/20/2044 3.47%
Buoni Poliennali Del Tes 2.36142% 09/15/
2024 2.66%
France (Govt Of) 1% 11/25/2025 2.57%
Canadian Government, 2.5% 06/01/2024 2.45%
Canadian Government 1% 08/01/2016 2.11%
U.S. Treasury Note 1.75% 12/31/2020 2.04%
Buoni Poliennali Del Tes 1.05% 12/01/
2019 2.03%
https://public.dreyfus.com/documents/compliancedocs/factsheets/monthly/6940.pdf

It continues. Looks like the former WaMu cowboys have relapsed and are back on the crank:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-29/when-good-credit-assets-go-bad

What charts? Growth of $10k, M*, looking at curve smoothness over time.
Do it yourself.
Takes into account splits, of course.
I set start point as inception of SHW, hence the year.
Log scale does its own smoothing as a function of increase, sort of, as I note.
Did not say anyone was better than SHW. It was you who used the characterization stabler.
I love hindsight with individual stocks, cocktail party talk about CVS, Costco, Nike, Apple, Altria, B-H, the ones I already mentioned (nobody on earth knows who Barnes Group is).
You may well have a winner, and you have the courage of your convictions, yay. But do they have a moat? Is there barrier to entry overseas? Why not Chinese paint?
Anyway, check this out:
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/01/29/the-best-stock-over-the-last-30-years-youve-never-heard-of-it/

Ain't hindsight something.
As for stabler, B is smoother since 1972, sort of, as are PG and JNJ. With a log scale (M*) it's less easy to detect smoothness and the opposite, of course.
SHW has had this remarkable rise the last six years, so there is that. Do you think in a greener world going forward that this will continue? Is that how you yourself are betting?

What charts are you looking at? It's not a close call or a fair fight with the issues you mentioned...I guess a case MIGHT be made for JNJ in terms of the ride, but its avg return for the past 15 years is 6.8%. SHW is 18%. I'm really not sure what you're looking at. You mention 1972, that's a long time ago. I assume you realize that SHW split 4 times since 1981; 1 share bought then for $35 now equals 32 shares at $281. You'll look a long time for something better than that coupled with a max draw down for the past 15 years of under 8%. As to the future, gun to head to pick one place to put my money for the next 15, SHW may be it. They're going to sell a lot of paint in China and the ROW. And I say all of this having nothing currently invested in the stock, regrettably. That will change at the next opportunity.

Ain't hindsight something.
As for stabler, B is smoother since 1972, sort of, as are PG and JNJ. With a log scale (M*) it's less easy to detect smoothness and the opposite, of course.
SHW has had this remarkable rise the last six years, so there is that. Do you think in a greener world going forward that this will continue? Is that how you yourself are betting?

@NumbersGal, hi!
Thanks for the question. By happenstance, Eric C dropped me a note shortly after we published (in reality, while I was in the produce section of my local Hy-Vee grocery, foraging). We profiled ARIVX shortly after launch and again a couple years later. My general take has been that Eric has more discipline and more steady resolve than just about anyone. We'll catch up in the next week or so.
Eric's performance has been remarkable given that he's now at 80% cash. That's been a brilliant positioning in the past year since it's given him great relative performance in the face of a small cap bear. My hesitation is that, even with a bear, the cash level keeps rising which seems counter-intuitive.
The comparison with ICMAX is close but, over the past five years (Eric's been gone five years and five months), it's not entirely one-sided. Intrepid comes out ahead on a bunch of risk measures (recovery period from maximum drawdown, downside deviation, Martin ratio, Sortino ratio, Ulcer Index) while River Road pulls ahead on others (maximum drawdown, standard deviation, Sharpe). Annual returns are within 0.1% of each other.
In any case, I wouldn't rule ARIVX out and we are going to find time to talk before my new term gets crazy.
As ever,
David

Why not just buy SHW and go home? I'd bet that simple paint stock beat 95%+ of all mutual funds and hedge funds over a 15 year period (almost 18% avg return). Up in 2008-2009. Biggest loss under 8%. Unreal. Anyone know a better more stable issue?

@Shostakovich, I had a good conversation with Steve Lipper, whose family launched Lipper Analytics then sold it to Thomson Reuters. I've never had any great affection for Royce for all the predictable reasons: a swarm of undistinguished and virtually undistinguishable funds, most apparently run by Mr. Royce. I do like the approach in RYFSX. It's not as strong as Hennessy Small Cap Financials (HSFNX) but I like the global focus.
As I listened to Mr. Lipper, there was a lot that he didn't say but that I think he would have liked to. I poked, for example, on the role of Mr. Flynn as "assistant portfolio manager" still after 10 years. In general, I got the sense that there's a very clear sense of the need to reform (almost literally: re-form) the company. And I had the sense that one reason Mr. Lipper was hired was to manage that process.
Will it work? I don't. But I am more hopeful after talking with him than I was before. My general advice would be to wait out 2016 and watch, since he suggested stuff was in the pipeline that would emerge this year.
This is, I know, pretty impressionistic but sometimes how things are said carries as much meaning as what is said, and it's really hard to give you that nuance.
On FPA, I'm trying to be as fair and detached as I can be. Lots of talented people there, it's just that they seem more and more aligned with an absolute value orientation. That's a fine approach but it does feel like they're narrowing.
For what that's worth,
David

Why would Mr. Snowball consider ICMAX instead of ARIVX (as a replacemnt for ARTVX)? Eric Cinnamond built ICMAX until he left in 2010 and started ARIVX. Yes, the team he has left behind has followed his approach, but in the last 5 years and last year, ARIVX has had less volatility, a lower beta, and a higher alpha.

FYI: Right on time !
Regatrds,
Ted
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2016/03/march-1-2016/

@Junkster It looks like everybody is jumping ship on Treasuries today and buying junk. Did you start this?

We both started on 2/12. This may surprise you. I hold 4 junk funds - my largest is PYHRX (doesn't accumulate daily) PHYDX, EIHIX ( I said never again a fee fund but) and JAHYX (not banned there in my taxable. You will notice no MWHYX. It's action last Tuesday was enough for me. A fun ride let's hope we don't have to cut and run and oil behaves itself.

FYI: Pimco co-founder claims firm ousted him so he'd lose bonus
He now co-manages a $1.26 billion Janus global bond fund
Bill Gross said Pacific Investment Management Co. isn’t playing by the rules in its effort to kill the lawsuit he filed last year over his departure.
Gross told a California state judge Tuesday that the company he started more than 40 years ago improperly misconstrued his allegations in order to have them thrown out before he gets a chance to present his evidence.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-01/bill-gross-says-pimco-tries-to-lure-court-into-tossing-case

David - apples to oranges. RSP equal weights all 500 stocks in the S&P 500. According to the blurb linked by jstr OUSA contains "The 140 stocks in the Index are selected from the FTSE USA Index, comprised of 600 of the largest U.S. publicly-listed equities." Close, but no cigar.

The most maligned market over the recent year and longer (junk corporate bonds) up for February. How can that be??? Looks like they are leading equities YTD and already (even before today) numerous open end junk bond funds are positive YTD. 2/11 is looking more and more like it was the day! For better or worse oil is the driver.

The demand for safe assets dominated asset flows in February. The main beneficiary of the risk-off trade last month: foreign government bonds in developed markets. Citigroup’s World Gov’t Bond Index ex-US surged 4.0% in February (unhedged US dollar total return). The gain also pushed this slice of the fixed-income market into first place for the trailing one-year period with a 1.7% increase.
Bonds generally were in high demand last month. The only corner of fixed income that didn’t deliver a gain in February: foreign junk.
As for equities, all the broad categories lost ground last month.

http://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-february-2016-performance-review/
Also. Returns from M*
SPDR® Nuveen S&P High Yield Municipal Bond Etf HYMB
1 mo +0.62 Ytd +0.76 1 Yr +3.54 3 Yr +3.76
Alerian M L P Etf AMLP
1 mo +0.77 Ytd -13.03 1Yr -34.75 3 Yr - 9.60
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Move Higher
BY TOM MOELLER MARCH 1, 2016 @haver.com
Petroleum prices stabilized last week following steady declines since the June highs. Regular gasoline averaged $1.78 per gallon last week (-27.9% y/y)
Prices for natural gas continued to decline last week to $1.78 per mmbtu (-42.2% y/y), and were $1.62 yesterday.
More Weekly Energy Prices as of 02/29/16 @ below link

http://www.haver.com/comment/comment.html?c=160301A.html
Related.New markets for American Nat Gas

The Asia Vision LNG carrier ship sits docked at the Cheniere Energy Inc. terminal in this aerial photograph taken over Sabine Pass, Texas, U.S., on Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016. Cheniere said in a statement last month. Cheniere Energy Inc. expects to ship the first cargo of liquefied natural gas on Wednesday to Brazil with another tanker to be loaded a few days later, marking the historic start of U.S. shale exports Photographer: Lindsey Janies/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The United States is shipping gas overseas for the first time in decades, but private companies sell to the highest bidder — and not just to the countries Washington might want for geopolitical reasons.
BY KEITH JOHNSONFEBRUARY 29, 2016
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/29/americas-natural-gas-exports-wont-be-enough-to-blunt-putins-energy-weapon/
Oil News
ExxonMobil’s record bond sale. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) made a big move with a $12 billion bond sale, its largest on record. The world’s largest publically-traded oil company could use the cash to buy up assets on the cheap. Exxon held its cards close to the vest, saying that the proceeds would be used for “funding for working capital, acquisitions, capital expenditures, refinancing a portion of our existing commercial paper borrowings and other business opportunities.” ExxonMobil still has a AAA credit rating, one of the few companies in existence to have the highest rating possible, but S&P issued a “negative” rating in early February.
Saudi cash reserves fall. Saudi foreign reserves continue to dwindle as the OPEC nation tries to shore up its finances and maintain its currency peg. In January, Saudi Arabia’s foreign exchange dipped below $600 billion for the first time in four years, according to the latest estimates. The government is burning through cash reserves at a rate of about $14.3 billion per month.
http://oilprice.com/newsletters/free/opintel01032016

Trivia on the Valeant/Philidor connection:
- Philidor was Valeant's only specialty pharmacy
- After all hell broke loose last October, it still took Valeant three months to terminate that relationship (Valeant products were still being sold through Philidor for months)
- Valeant appears to have moved its business to Walgreens http://www.valeantaccessprogram.com/