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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 36% annualized investment return, 2017; I'll take it !
    Hi @Maurice ...............1997?, as in finance melt in Asia? Well, a face slap for sure; but the markets did recover. Heck, I don't sense there is going to be another "melt" right now. As to the central banks; well, many European banks likely have very crappy balance sheets. I don't know how many more props can be placed for support, and I wonder whether the central banks really know the full story about another central bank, eh? We're talking egos for some of these top of the pile folks and I'm confident they do keep some secrets.
    Hi @JohnChisum @Old_Joe
    You'll have to help me with the chickens and eggs (too tired today, I suppose; and cold).
    And I still keep a watchful eye, at least for the next few months. I run all the numbers related to holdings every weekend; as well as other areas looking for a trend...up or down.
    Hi @MikeM
    I did a quick M* review of the 67% of the portfolio that is equity and the following was shown (domestic and foreign): The top 3.........
    -health related at 41% (sector has had a happy new year)
    -tech related at 12%
    -banks, related financial at 12%
    These 3 above account for much of the push YTD; although today it appears I can remove a mental quick view of about .5%. Close guess at 5.5% YTD, as of today.
  • RMB Mendon Financial Services Fund To “Soft Close”
    i believe these were the burnham funds? One of those shoulda, coulda, woulda situations for me. Maybe buy $100 of each just in case at Schwab?
  • Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008
    @Junkster Did you trim your bank loan position? It seems to me it should be safe during a correction caused by stock overvaluation. SAMBX is up 0.11% today when everything is down.
  • RMB Mendon Financial Services Fund To “Soft Close”
    FYI: he RMB Mendon Financial Services Fund (the “Fund”) will “soft close” on March 15, 2017. This “soft close” is designed to ensure that the Fund continues to be managed in the best interests of its existing shareholders. Effective as of the close of trading on March 14, 2017, the availability of the Fund to new investors is limited. New investors in the Fund must meet certain requirements as set forth in the Fund’s prospectus to make an investment. Those who are shareholders of the Fund as of March 14, 2017, and who continue to be shareholders thereafter, may make additional investments in the Fund and also reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions in the Fund unless RMB Capital considers such additional purchases not to be in the best interests of the Fund and its other shareholders. Tickers impacted by the soft close are RMBKX, RMBLX, and RMBNX.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170302006265/en
    M* Snapshot RMBKX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/rmbkx/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot RMBKX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/rmbkx
    RMBKX Is Unranked In The (FS) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/financial/rmb-mendon-financial-services-fund/rmbkx
  • 36% annualized investment return, 2017; I'll take it !
    Howdy,
    Well, sitt'in here with 67% equity/33% bond blend at this time.
    Looking at 3%/month average for the year (as of March 1); which would amount to at least a 36% annualized rate of return.
    Will this pattern hold for the full year? Ha, one wouldn't think so, eh?
    With this mix, at +6% so far for the year; surely there are other portfolios here much in front of this.
    Watching from the sidelines, the political state of affairs, both domestic and international. Can't find a complete common thread for optimism from the political sector, except for the "let us see what happens" with the group of folks who appear to be traveling in another direction which will likely have economic meanings.
    At this point, for this house, the technical aspects have more weigh than whatever fundamental aspects provide for where our monies may travel in the coming months.
    Lastly, this post remains personal data investment oriented only, for the benefit of whomever chooses to view. I find no reason to interject any political or similar wandering. The "flag" icon has its uses.
    The Mix = 67% equity and 33% bond
    -Equity portion =
    ---U.S. oriented = 80.6%
    ---foreign = 19.4%
    -Bond portion =
    ---investment grade = 81%
    --- other =19%
    Just a simple view of a real and active retirement portfolio.
    Fun for now. :)
    Hang in there,
    Catch
  • Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008
    It's nuts. Trimmed a bit today.
    +1 now about 15% in cash. Probably good we are all worried though as markets seldom accommodate the worriers. I don't recall many worriers at the tops in 2000 and 2007. Still, will continue to raise cash if necessary. Yesterday's 300+ move in the Dow didn't have the usual up/down volume as many in the past.
  • Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008
    https://www.yardeni.com/Pub/peacockfeval.pdf
    There is a lot there. If you can make anything of it.
    Schiller's P/E is adjusted. Still interesting.
    From the original post's link. Even based on the more common price-earnings ratio, the market looks rich. The S&P 500's P/E based on earnings of the last 12 months is 18.9, the highest in more than 12 years, according to FactSet.
    Keep in mind that inflation is still very low, and that can support a higher P/E ratio. Just because equity markets are hitting a new high, doesn't mean that we are due for a crash. I'm not terribly concerned about a correction, which I would view as a buying opportunity.
    Anyone have a link to projected earnings? That is part of the equation. I'd like to take a look. But those projections have to be tempered by the fact that they are typically short term, and analysts have a ton of conflicts of interest. Not to mention that they are highly overpaid and terribly underskilled.
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Dow Poised To Keep Head Above 21,000 After 303-Point Surge
    MAPIX, S: Matthews Asia Dividend, +7.5% YTD
    SFGIX, S: Seafarer Overseas G & I (Asia+Europe: 75.1%), +8.6% YTD
    GPROX, S: Grandeur Peak Global Reach (Asia+Europe: 62.4%), +5.8% YTD
    FMIJX, S: FMI International Fund (Asia+Europe: 70.8%), +4.7% YTD
    ARTGX, S: Artisan Global Value Investor (Asia+Europe: 40.6%), +5.6% YTD
    Flat?
    Note: YTD from M*, 3/1/17.
  • E*Trade Cuts Fees Too; Active Traders Win This Round
    FYI: For the record, Charles Schwab (SCHW) took the first shot last month when it reduced trade commission on online stock and exchange-traded fund trades earlier this month. Fidelity undercut Schwab this week by slashing its fee to $4.95, which turned into an all out brawl among the online brokers. Schwab matched Fidelity’s price. TD Ameritrade (AMTD) knocked down its price.
    And it’s not over!
    E*Trade Financial (ETFC) just announced that effective March 13, it would charge $6.95 instead of $9.99. It also introduced an active trading program and pricing tier for those who do more than 30 trades per quarter, which is lower than the 150+ trades it required to qualify for the “active trading tier.” CEO Karl Roessner made a statement about how investors “experience” matters more than price. You can read it here if you want.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2017/03/02/etrade-cuts-fees-too-active-traders-win-this-round/tab/print/
  • Sixth Best Start To March On Record
    FYI: The S&P 500’s 1.37% gain yesterday was the sixth best start to March (1st trading day of the month) in the index’s history. Below is a quick table highlighting all 1%+ gains on the first trading day of March for the S&P 500 since 1928.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/sixth-best-start-to-march-on-record/
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    For what interest it holds, the manager - who came onboard in 2005 - seems entirely sympathetic to your complaints about the funds though, given that his dad founded the firm he needs to be a bit circumspect.
    His argument, I think, is that the funds were once 100% pedal to the metal: buy great, growing companies and hold them, volatility be damned. The results were great, until they weren't.
    His addition to the discipline seems to be the macro overlay: start with the question of whether you should be seeking to embrace or withdraw from risk first, then look at the best options within that strategic vision.
    If you look at 2000-02, before his time, the fund lost 88% - 5000 basis points more than its peers and took 14 years to record.
    Compared that to 2007-09, when he was in charge. The fund lost 54%, 400 basis points more than its peers but had fully recovered by April 2010.
    During the current upcycle, it's maximum drawdown was 20.8%, 100 basis points more than its peers and it bounced back far more quickly than they did.
    To be clear: the fund is more aggressive than I am, so I'm not ever likely to add it to my personal holdings. That having been said, (1) it's not his father's Pin Oak and (2) it's an interesting answer to the "where can I get market-beating returns?" question. It feels like investors put managers in an incredible bind: they flee from active funds because they don't beat the ETFs and flee from active funds because they do, apparently in the belief that ETFs offer ...
    Hmmmm.
    In any case, I did approach Pin Oak with consider caution and skepticism. The combination of the numbers and the story convinced me that folks who dislike my normal conservatism (Intrepid Endurance at 70% cash, RiverPark Short-Term at 3% and FPA Crescent at 45% bonds and cash) would like the opportunity to consider the alternative.
    As ever,
    David
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    I also was surprised by the mention of POGSX.
    I have to confess that it was probably my worst investment mistake ever.
    $10,000 invested early 2000 was transformed in less than $2,000 by September 2002.
    It has taken the fund until June 2016 to break even.
    Never again, it would take much stronger record to convince me.
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Dow Poised To Keep Head Above 21,000 After 303-Point Surge
    Good morning,
    Yesterday the S&P 500 Index closed at another record setting high of 2,295.96 with the U S 10 year yielding 2.458%. The three best performing sectors were financial, energy and materials.
    In checking the markets as I write this morning Asia-Pacific is mixed with Australia, Japan and Singapore being up. In Europe France and Italy are up. In the States the futures are indicating stocks to be down and government bonds up.
    Old_Skeet's market barometer reflects readings that have not been seen before. I developed the market barometer and my equity weighting matrix to help me throttle my equity allocation (within certain ranges) within my portfolio.
    The barometer consist of three feeds. They are a breath feed which is a measure of how many stocks within the S&P 500 Index are above (percent wise) the 200 day moving average. The second feed is a fundamental feed consisting of both TTM reported earnings and forward estimates. The third feed is a technical score feed consisting of the RSI and MFI readings.
    I usually run floors and ceilings on each feed. With the floors in place the barometer has a reading of 130. With the floor stops removed the barometer has a reading of 112. The feeds below their floor stops are the breath feed and technical strength feed. Remember, the lower the barometer reading the less value there is to be had in the Index while a higher reading indicates more value. For reference purposes the barometer had a reading on election day of 162 indicating stocks were undervalued (just short of being oversold) and a reading of 157 when Trump took office, still at this point, a touch undervalued.
    Since, the barometer is producing unprecedented low readings that I have not seen before makes me wonder what is really up with this market. In reading many thoughts and drawing my own conclusion here is what I have come up with. Since year-over-year reported earnings are up strongly and forward estimates have been on the rise with little downward revisions, thus far this year, investors are willing to pay premium prices for stocks because of their earnings outlook.
    I have read where the carry trade is very favorable at this time and with this a lot of foreign money has been coming to the States along with some retail investors now beginning to buy stocks and perhaps sell off some of their bonds. Whoevery is buying has now bid stock prices to elevated levels and thus extended the markets.
    So, what is Old_Skeet going to do? Usually, and in the past, I have followed my barometer and equity weighting matrix and would have reduced my allocation to equities pursuant to matrix readings. This year, I decided to ride the Trump rally and I am now fining myself overweight equities by 10% over what the barometer and equity weighting matrix are calling for. With this, I have decided to continue to ride the rally through March or until I see my technical score feed starting to break down. In addition, I will probally, monitor the slow stoch and MACD as well.
    In the nearterm, Old_Skeet is looking to reduce his allocation to equities by coming in alignment with what my barometer and equity weighting matrix are calling for. Since, March has historically been a good month for stocks I am not ready just yet to start my rebalance process but stand ready to move should I feel conditions warrant.
    Because, I am doing this does not mean you should. I'm stronly up and well above my normal equity allocation but just short of its ceiling. Based upon this it will soon be time for me to start a rebalnce process anyway but I'm going to give March a go.
    I'll be leaving today and traveling through Sunday. I most likely will not be able to write much but plan to check the board when time permits.
    Thanks for reading ... and, I plan to be back on Monday, Tuesday at the latest.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Sure sign of Market Top / Impending DOOM!
    I don't have the wiz-bang sure-fire indicators you all have, but I read occassionally, and have come around near to where OJ sits in my market view. Just another in a long string of indicators ... But when the folks at TRP start throwing around terms like "pre-1929" (valuations ) I take note. Caveat: Even very good indicators can be years ahead (early), so smart people often end up looking foolish.
  • Sure sign of Market Top / Impending DOOM!
    @Old_Skeet said on Tue the Feb 21st
    Should it continue to drop and reach a reading of 135 then the Index (stocks) will have moved from overvalued to overbought by the barometer.
    All of the barometer's feeds with the exception of the earnings feed have the Index overbought and if it were not for the forward earnings outlook and an improvement in TTM earnings the barometer would reflect the Index to be extremely overbought.
    Today @Old_Skeet said
    The earnings feed is keeping the barometer reading propped up. The barometer reading with the floors in place is 130 and when the floor is removed letting the readings float then the barometer reading drops to 112. ***
    ***That may put it in irrational exuberance territory!
    It had become a catchphrase of the boom to such an extent that, during the economic recession that followed the stock market collapse of 2000, bumper stickers reading "I want to be irrationally exuberant again" were sighted in Silicon Valley and elsewhere.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrational_exuberance
    P.S. O_S, please consider posting your "The Markets and More ..." in a separate post.It sometimes gets lost in someone's exuberance to post... and post...and post...etc..etc.
  • Sure sign of Market Top / Impending DOOM!
    Hi @Old_Joe and others,
    I am seeing an unprecedented low reading on my market barometer if I remove the floor on all the feeds with the exception being earnings. The earnings feed is keeping the barometer reading propped up. The barometer reading with the floors in place is 130 and when the floor is remove letting the readings float then the barometer reading drops to 112. This is the impact the improvement in reported year-over-year earnings and forward estimates are having on stock market prices. It seems investors are currently willing to pay dearly now for earnings thus extending the markets to richly priced levels by some metrics. In addition, the carry trade is drawing foreign money to the States plus perhaps some retail investors are now selling bonds and buying stocks.
    Currently, I am overweight equities by 10% over what my market barometer and equity weighting matrix are calling for. In most past years I have trimmed based upon my matrix.
    Is it time to cut and run? Perhaps. But, at this time, I going to stay with the trend until I see the money flow and the relative strength indicators, which make up my technical score feed, start to give way.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
  • Schooner Hedged Alternative Income Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141819/000089418917001178/schooner-tpm_497e.htm
    497 1 schooner-tpm_497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-62298; 811-10401
    Schooner Hedged Alternative Income Fund
    A series of Trust for Professional Managers (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated March 1, 2017
    to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information dated September 28, 2016
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Trust for Professional Managers (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Schooner Investment Group, LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Schooner Hedged Alternative Income Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust, has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Trust effective as of the close of business on March 31, 2017 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    The Board approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) that determines the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated. Pursuant to the Plan and in anticipation of the Fund’s liquidation, the Fund will be closed to new purchases, except for purchases made through an automatic investment program, effective as of the close of business on March 1, 2017, and the Fund’s assets may be entirely invested in money market instruments or held in cash. Accordingly, the Fund will no longer be investing according to its investment objective. However, any distributions declared to shareholders of the Fund after March 1, 2017 and until the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on the Liquidation Date will be automatically reinvested in additional shares of the Fund unless a shareholder specifically requests that such distributions be paid in cash. Although the Fund will be closed to new purchases as of March 1, 2017, you may continue to redeem your shares of the Fund after March 1, 2017, as described in “How to Redeem Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on the Liquidation Date, your shares will be redeemed, and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax adviser for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
    The Adviser will bear all of the expenses incurred in carrying out the Plan.
    Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 1-866-724-5997.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Prospectus, Summary Prospectus
    and Statement of Additional Information for reference.
  • for the religious (christian only), here we go
    @davidmoran: I'm giving you up for Lent !!!
    Regards,
    ted

    @Ted- speaking of lent, when are you going to pay back the $100 that I lent you ten years ago? :)