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(for those familiar with the history of biology, Gould's use of "homunculus" is terribly witty)
"I am particularly fond of this example [the Linda problem] because I know that the [conjoint] statement is least probable, yet a little homunculus in my head continues to jump up and down, shouting at me—“but she can’t just be a bank teller; read the description.” Stephen J. Gould[1]
And for MFOers who don't understand why we'd be prattling on about this, here is a recent mention of this fallacy by Clifford Asness of AQR on his personal blog site; he sounds a bit consternated, no?When people are asked to compare the probabilities of a conjunction and one of its conjuncts, they sometimes judge that the conjunction is more likely than one of its conjuncts. This seems to happen when the conjunction suggests a scenario that is more easily imagined than the conjunct alone. Psychologists Kahneman and Tversky discovered in their experiments that statistical sophistication made little difference in the rates at which people committed the conjunction fallacy. This suggests that it is not enough to teach probability theory alone, but that people need to learn directly about the conjunction fallacy in order to counteract the strong psychological effect of imaginability.
Hi Junkster,Better yet to be in high yield munis such as ABTYX or PYMDX. That category was the star in 2014 ( EIHYX NHMRX) and again this year albeit more muted and without the volatility of the corporates. Yes, trends do persist. Some of the (so-called) experts are looking for a credit crisis in the high yield corporates still to be played out.
Mona: "I am still trying to understand why all the ink on MFO on RSIVX and not a drop on ASHIX ...."
Hi Mona, the Allianz fund is mentioned in this thread, and a few others. Search on ASHDX to find them, as that seems to be the share class people have referred to. Funny, the ASHDX share class doesn't trigger as a valid ticker now; it used to.
The big difference is that Allianz is into higher quality junk.
Cheers, AJ
Edit: Huh. ASHDX doesn't trigger because, apparently, the D share class doesn't exist anymore - at least neither M* nor Fidelity recognizes it now. There's an A share class that Fido offers load-waived - ASHAX.
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