Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Markets have false sense of security"
    It's pretty sad and going on for years. Be scared of US LC, especially the MAG 5-6-7
    But let me sell you NOW Value, SC, EM and CEFs.
    Wait, last Dec the "experts" told us that the Fed is going to cut 5-6-7 times, buy Treasuries. VGIT is finally at 0.2% YTD.
    It's amazing how these "experts" get paid and have a job.
    Sure, one day it will happen.
  • Where did they all go
    The number of "funds" in 2023 looks more like share classes than actual funds.
    The nine style boxes of broad based domestic equity funds add up to 6,918. ICI reports a total of 8.578 domestic equity share classes (including all domestic categories but excluding funds of funds), but only 2,880 unique domestic equity funds. In fact, in total ICI reports just 7,222 funds including equity, bond, hybrid, and money market funds.
    The 2024 figure (totaling 3,454) still exceeds the ICI fund figure (YE 2023) of 2,880, but at least it's in the right ballpark.
    2024 ICI Investment Company Fact Book - list of tables
    ICI table of number of funds by type and year
    ICI table of number of share classes by type and year
    It would have been so much easier to examine M* figures with its premium fund screener. That had a "distinct funds only" filter. But alas, M* now offers only a crude tool on its "Investor" site. FWIW, that screener reports a total of 6,033 domestic "funds" in the nine style boxes. Well less than the 6,918 total of the nine boxes.
    This suggests that M* is including in its "number of funds" counts some esoteric classes or types of funds that neither ICI nor M* itself (in its screeners) is counting. That in turn lends credibility to the idea that M* switched from share classes to funds in its reporting of total funds in category.
    From the M* glossary (UK version):
    Number of Funds in Category
    The number of funds classified in the same category as this fund.
    https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/glossary/98231/number-of-funds-in-category.aspx
  • Where did they all go
    @jptak - Thanks for the offer. I don't need the info to solve any problem. I was merely curious. However, if you do come up with an answer I'd like to hear it.
    I also checked on the Number of Mutual Funds and there doesn't appear to be any appreciable decline to account for what I'm seeing.
  • Where did they all go
    It seems that number of funds have gone down significantly for all 9-box categories.
    2023

    1,200 1,430 1,217
    553 420 397
    597 615 489
    2024/YTD/Daily View

    603 705 610
    277 201 211
    298 298 251
    These correspond to:

    IVW IVV IVE
    IJK IJH IJJ
    IJT IJR IJS
  • Where did they all go
    So I tend to look at the Buy-Sell-Why thread often and just today focused on the Large Cap Growth category. Scrolling down to the Growth of $10K graph I saw that over a 10-yr time span the number of funds so categorized by M* dropped by nearly 66% if I'm reading or interpreting the data correctly. Is this true? Is it because of the explosion in ETF's or other?
    From the FSCVX data page (from 2014 - 2024):
    # of Invest. in Cat. 1,710- 1,681- 1,463- 1,363- 1,405- 1,360- 1,289- 1,237- 1,235- 1,200- 603
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Results since 20220101 ("Normalization") dinky linky.
    Results since 20200101 ("Covid") dinky linky.
    I added the covid period because I will look at the Martin ratios for the funds.
    It's down to FDSVX or PRWAX. Tip of the cap to @stillers for drawing my attention to funds I had missed.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Stillers, the money was previously invested in tech funds, so moving to growth seems appropriate. Good point about the inflation news, OTOH, if it's good news . . .
    I look at the last three years to see how the funds have behaved since the end of ZIRP. And when I run them through Portfolio Visualizer I'll start the clock at January 2022 for an even tougher challenge. I think the issues of inflation and interest rates are likely to be with us for a while.
    I did have to look at five and ten year returns to insure that the funds I am testing have performed at least as well a AMAGX over those time periods. I then looked for funds with an active share over 50. That left me with FDSVX, PRWAX, and FTRNX which I am examining now.
    I am at 30% bonds, 10% cash. Most of the bonds are low duration floaters. But I'll leave that for another day. That's about as high as it will get for me given what I have in IYK, FSUTX, and GLIFX.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Tough choice for us between FDSVX and FBGRX but settled on the former. PRWAX is one of the most underrated LCG funds. We would own any of them over AMAGX.
    Other thoughts:
    Not sure of your situation, but if this is new money, might not be the best time to plow into Growth after its epic, current bull run. FWIW, we have recently reduced overall stock exposure including Growth and may go to all Cash if things start getting ugly en route to Nov. Also, if plowing money in this week, we would at least do some before/after Thu/Fri CPI/PPI announcements. They've been market movers this year.
    We always look beyond 3 years of performance and think that everyone should. If its the same manager(s), not sure why anyone wouldn't.
    Baron's Growth funds can run very hot/cold. We're likely done with that family of funds because of it.
    ERs are important but TR is obviously far more important (to us at least). A great, managed LCG fund will run ~.50-.80, as do the ones I listed. Coupled with a LCG index fund at ~.02 and you're at half that. FWIW, our weighted portfolio ER is .46. If ERs though are a primary driver for you, looks like AMAGX's ER of .91 is the highest of the bunch here and almost double FBGRX's .48.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    It's good to raise the issue of alarming growth in the US debt. But CAGR isn't the proper tool for it. As mentioned, 20-yr T-Bond bought today will have the CAGR of 4.57% if held to maturity.
    Of course, the real-returns and the returns on bond funds that never mature may be BAD.
  • Property Fraud Allegations Snowball as Commercial Real-Estate Values Fall
    This looks like the variation of the housing disaster we had only 15 years ago. That was not too long ago and how the mechanics are already in rinse and repeat cycle. I guess greed never sleeps.
    As a society, we admire / glorify people that commit white color crimes. The more blatant ones get elected to public offices.
    (A easier fix would be to require the originators and underwriters to hold a percentage of the loans that they originate / bring to the market.)
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (07/08/24)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:21 Topics
    01:30 Betting on a Rate Cut
    06:07 The All-Time High Party Continues
    12:25 Investors Getting Greedy
    14:18 Apple's Highest Valuation Ever
    16:37 Tesla's Incredible Comeback
    18:28 A Coordinated Contraction
    21:11 More Listings = More Price Drops
    23:17 Cheaper Rents
    Video
  • Property Fraud Allegations Snowball as Commercial Real-Estate Values Fall
    "U.S. prosecutors are cracking down on commercial mortgage fraud, a growing push that is sending shudders through the $4.7 trillion industry by raising questions about the numbers underpinning major property loans."
    "At the heart of the problem is the way lenders underwrite commercial mortgages. Borrowers typically submit financial statements called T-12 that show building income and expenses for the past year. Lenders use these documents to estimate the building’s value and calculate how much they are willing to lend. But in most cases they don’t audit these statements to verify that the sums listed in the spreadsheets actually flowed in and out of the landlord’s accounts."
    "Landlords have an incentive to come up with inflated building profits so that they can land bigger loans. But lenders also often have an incentive to accept these inflated numbers, especially if they plan to repackage the loan and sell it off to investors, Griffin said. That is because bigger loans mean bigger fees."
    https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/property-fraud-allegations-snowball-as-commercial-real-estate-values-fall-492d964c?st=5b6slrn9dyyq3u9&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @WABAC, Fidelity has a ton of growthy OEFs and ETFs of their own. Even their own core funds can be growthy. Look forward to your pick.
    An Interesting exercise. Four of the candidates ended up being "Great Owls." ILGFX bit the dust first for being quanty, and hugging the index more than the others. It also had the lowest investments by management.
    That left AMAGX, BDAFX, and FUNYX. At the dinky linky is the Portfolio Visualizer backtest.
    The active share for AMAGX and BDAFX is practically equal. AMAGX gets me to the highest allocation to tech. I like the allocation to industrials. It has the lowest allocation to financials, which is OK by me. It also features lower beta and standard deviation while still adding that tech. I like that for the IRA.
    If Fido offered a cheaper version of the Baron Fund it might have been too good to pass up.
  • Schwab Mutual Fund Compare tool- Problems ?
    Is anyone else having problems with Schwab Mutual Fund Compare Screener .
    I am on a MAc 10.15 - its old ... I know . I am having problems getting the compare tool to work - I am wondering if its me.. on A MAc... an older one at that !
  • WSJ: Vanguard’s Die-Hard Customers Have a Message for New CEO: ‘The Service Is Abysmal’
    Bogelheads.org I peeked about the site fast and found this discussion link.
    This tread is named, 'Customer Service Mega Thread' and begins March 29, 2024. Scroll down the page to the blue colored area, second paragraph. This write says a lot.
    I have no desire to read the thread, but some here may have an interest.
    My last Vanguard connection was a 401k plan. The rollover of that plan to a Fidelity IRA was absolutely smooth. A three way phone call and presto, finished in about 20 minutes. I suspect that wouldn't happen today.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added a few shares to both MCD & PEP. Both are near 52-wk lows but could be heard shouting "I'm not dead yet!"
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    Thanks, @Devo.
    MAXJ remaining cap as of Friday is 8.53, down from Starting Cap of 10.64% (and closed at a premium of 0.24%).
    https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/337965/ishares-large-cap-max-buffer-jun-etf
    Starting NAV is $25. NAV as of 7/5 is $25.14, which is less than 0.6% above the starting NAV. Since inception, the reference Asset (index) increased by about 2% (from 547.2 to 557.8). May [be] it is the change in option prices that is causing the difference in the change in NAV vs change in reference Asset value.
  • Boeing plea.
    Never mind. I mistakenly thought you were referring to their ”Starliner” crew pleading to come home. :)
    Added - Here’s the story:
    NASA insists astronauts are 'not stranded' as 8-day Starliner mission hits one-month mark
  • Investing in CEFs - Tips & views from 3 different sources
    Discounts or not, be wary of the income generated by many CEFs use high degrees of leverage. That 7-12% yield might be great, but everything has a price --- interest rates/leverage costs, fund fees, etc. If a CEF has more than 20, 25% leverage, I would not be interested. And if the fund isn't generating enough income from its holdings and/or appreciated cap gains, it could be paying out 'destructive' return of capital, which means the dividend could be at risk longer term.
    (I only hold 1 equity CEF right now (ASGI) and have a few on watch lists, all of which are unlevered)