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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Sell In May And Go ... Where?
    For those wanting more detail on some etf's and etn's that trade the Dog of the Dow or some type of strategy centered around it, I have provided the below link.
    http://www.nasdaq.com/article/5-investor-friendly-dow-dog-etfs-for-2015-etf-news-and-commentary-cm430446
  • Sell In May And Go ... Where?
    Sounds as though a mutual fund that utilizes this strategy along with a few other strategies mixed in might indeed be worth while to develop as a niche type fund that would be designed to complement a well diversified portfolio incorporating it with some special investment strategies.
    It's ticker might become SPIFX meaning that it centers itself around certain S&P Indexes (S&P 500, S&P 400 & S&P 600) ... and, if X applies then it follows a certain mandate that incorporates the Sell In May Strategy along with perhaps a few other well known strategies such as the Dogs of the Dow and maybe some others mixed in like a thermostat strategy (CTFAX) in which if the S&P 500 Index falls a certain percent then it will increase its allocation to equities and and reduce its allocation to cash or bonds. Doing this would help diversify it away from a single investment strategy.
    Heck, I'd probally invest in it as it would simplify things for me as I usually follow the Sell In May Seasonal Strategy with a small part (up to about 5% to 10%) of my equity allocation anyway. This strategy is not new and has been around for a good number of years and one that my late father utilized many, many years ago. And, even today the family still follows it within family portfolios. However, we usually switch stocks out for bonds or cash and vice versa. I currently use FDSAX to gain exposure to the Dogs of the Dow strategy as about one third of it's holdings come form the strategy.
    In addition, my engineer buddy (that I made a post about a while back) utilizes a modified model of the Sell In May Strategy as he follows the calendar as a timing guide but uses technical analysis as to when to enter or exit the strategy over exact calendar dates. I have provided a link back to this discussion for those that would like to reference it. He also, utilizes a thermostat type strategy wherein if the S&P 500 Index drops a certain percent in what he believes is a mere pull back within a bull market he will reduce his cash and/or his bond position and raise his stock position.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/22938/my-engineer-buddy-is-now-crowing-but-we-both-have-smiles#latest
    Does anyone know of a mutual fund that currently employes a seasonal type trading strategy along with maybe a few other strategies mixed in such as the "Dogs of the Dow" and even a thermostat strategy to help diversify it away from one single strategy?
    I'd most likely be a buyer of it if it's fee structure was reasonable as it would simplify things for me that I am currently already doing; but, this would put it in an auto mode for me and also get me away from having to follow the markets as closely as I currently do.
  • Investors Trimming Bets On September Interest Rate Hike
    FYI: Investors are underpricing the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next month, according to Pacific Investment Management.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150819/FREE/150819896?template=printart
  • Sell In May And Go ... Where?
    FYI: 'Sell in May from the overall market and gravitate toward the more defensive areas of the market,' says Sam Stovall.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2015/08/17/sell-in-may-and-go-where?t=mutual-funds
    Click On 3Mo. Returns:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
  • King Of Bonds’ Gundlach: No Great Case For Higher Rates
    FYI: DoubleLine Capital’s co-founder Jeffrey Gundlach says that investors are underestimating the potential impact of higher rates on the economy and across financial markets.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/08/19/king-of-bonds-gundlach-no-great-case-for-higher-rates/tab/print/
  • Since July 1 HYD rising; HYG falling
    Since July 1 HYD rising; HYG falling - I hope that relationship continues. My guess is that people are looking for a safe haven.
  • same ol' mario
    Hi Guys,
    Mario Joseph Gabelli is one smart stock picker. In many ways his research and style mimics the methods of Munger and Buffett. Here is a Link to a recent exchange he had on the 25iq website:
    http://25iq.com/2015/06/13/a-dozen-things-ive-learned-from-mario-gabelli-about-investing-and-business-2/
    Although Gabelli just might be the more better known, and just might be wealthier, he is not the original MJG. Since I’m 8 years older, if seniority rules dominate, I am.
    More seriously, Gabelli demonstrated superior stock picking talents over a decade ago. His mutual funds generated positive Alphas in those decade old days. More recently, that apparent advantage has eroded.
    Like so many other fund managers, that Alpha erosion might be caused by the changing investment environment. A decade ago, Gabelli and his cohorts were investing against opponents like you and me. Today, they are challenging each other since north of 70% of all trades are now between institutional investors. These talented and resourceful investment teams neutralize one another.
    Is Gabelli worth his paycheck? My personal answer is “No”. Just like it would be if the question was asked about Big League ballplayers. But the marketplace has given another answer. So, I’ll just take a deep breath and move ahead.
    Best Wishes.
  • Something Fishy...Fish Farming Becomes Bigger Business Than the Open Sea
    I guess I just have a longer-term view and with MHG's hefty dividend policy (which, admittedly is risky and can go to 0% in a 2008-style situation), it's a risk I'm willing to take.
    I believe I read the same report and honestly, I don't want to sit and trade on various formations. I feel strongly about a longer-term story and sit longer-term and collect dividends. I don't want to have to time the market.
    http://www.barrons.com/articles/marine-harvest-shares-headed-higher-1432950653
    (search for Marine Harvest Headed Higher Barrons if you can't read it after clicking link.)
  • Something Fishy...Fish Farming Becomes Bigger Business Than the Open Sea
    Thanks Scott,
    I came across this report on MHG...your thoughts? Today's price $12.22
    image
  • Time to dump YAFFX?
    Near term numbers pretty poor, even spending some time as a Three Alarm Fund, but across the last two full cycles, pretty strong...the fund is also now part of AMG's stable:
    image
  • M*: These Funds Could Shine In Tough Times
    FYI: Recent performance is lackluster, but many of these funds share an emphasis on quality and limiting downside losses.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=711918
  • World Allocation Funds
    JP Morgan finally got back to me today about my question about the fund's credit quality for bonds. They said that FINRA does not allow the use of average quality in any materials. "The calculation of this information is considered to be subjective," as stated in their reply. Therefore, they are unable to provide me with the credit quality information requested for the fund.
    This seems to be a rather odd response.
    I agree. I believe that their first statement (that credit ratings are considered by regulators to be subjective) is accurate, but that does not lead directly to the second statement - that they cannot provide credit information.
    Rather, I think it leads to the statement that if they provide credit quality information, they must accompany it with how the portfolio was evaluated (e.g. using S&P ratings and dropping unrated bonds, or whatever).
    Here's a page I found from UMB Fund Services. (A subsidiary of UMB, which Fidelity brokerage investors may recognize as the bank providing the checking services):
    The SEC has a new rule effective July 7, 2014 ...
    • Funds that choose to show credit quality categorizations ...
    • Funds will be required to describe how the credit quality of the holdings was determined,
      and if credit ratings are used, a description of how they were identified and selected.
  • Time to dump YAFFX?
    This is actually a good reason to own "many" funds. YAFFX is a focused fund. If you have 10% of your Portfolio in it, I can understand the need to sell. I have 3% of my IRA in it, well less now. I'm keeping it.
  • Growth vs. Value and style boxes

    As a shareholder of BB's FAIRX, I feel he has done a poor job of communicating his value vision to his shareholders. I understand a desire to keep your cards close to your chest, but an occasional confident wink would do wonders for my morale as I sit wondering what cards he holds and may play.
    He has offered up thesis papers for things like SHLD but I've found they don't make much of a case/offer some broad positive points while neglecting to discuss some obvious concerns regarding specific details. They're basically happy talk papers.
    I think what Fairholme hasn't done is provide some realistic views on how the Sears journey has gone and what the destination even vaguely looks like.
    Fairholme was buying Sears well North of $100. You can say he was early, but years later and a significant % lower (although there have admittedly been some spin-offs, albeit crappy ones), I think there needs to be some honesty and insights as to what the next steps may look like for SHLD.
  • Ford Retirement Plans To Pull $900 Million From Fidelity Contrafund
    My experience was the same as Art's. You can not roll over any part of a 401k if you are still with that same employer, plan options change or not. You are stuck with the options they offer and those options can and do change from time to time. My plan's options have changed numerous times over the years.
  • Growth vs. Value and style boxes
    Nicely stated description of mean reversion. The key, as you pointed out, is what mean one is talking about. Just because a fund/manager has performed above the industry average does not mean that the fund will "revert" to the industry average. Without more information, one doesn't even know whether the fund is underperforming its own mean, and that it might even do better going forward (like a good pitcher having a winning but lackluster 10-8 season).
    Here's a formal mathematical definition of mean reversion:
    http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ReversiontotheMean.html
    In plain English, it's just stating what you did - that if a mediocre pitcher had a hot night, that was toward the high end of his performance range. So on his next outing, he's more likely than not to do worse than his sterling performance - not because he did well the previous game, but just because he's a mediocre pitcher who tends to give up 10 hits or so a night.
  • Bill Bernstein: Who Killed Value ?
    Hi Guys,
    Please note that the referenced Bill Bernstein article was written in 2001. There has been a lot of water both through and over the dam since that time.
    To make a quick visual update to the data sets that Bernstein referenced, being lazy, I defaulted to the Periodic Table of Asset Returns format. That’s a much easier task than plowing through a complex set of numerical tables and statistical analyses. Here is a Link to a Prudential presentation that covers the last 20 years:
    https://investment.prudential.com/util/common/get?file=1D065355D2CC360385257B7D00536F8A
    These charts are terrific for a general overview of the marketplace’s random walk character.
    If you perceive a pattern in this data, “you’re a better man than I Gunga Din”. I don’t see patterns, I see complete chaos. The situation is normal. Sometimes the Value groups outdistance the Growth holding strategy. Sometimes the reverse is true.
    During the last 20 years the annual inflation rate, on a decade by decade perspective, has dropped from about 3.1% to roughly 1.9%. Since 1913, the long-term average annual inflation rate has been 3.2%. We’ve learned to somewhat control its variability.
    Given the chaotic character of the various asset classes over the last two decades, I choose to ignore the Bernstein study, and will remain invested in both Value and Growth oriented mutual funds. Good luck on trying to project a winner based upon inflation rate change subtleties.
    Best Wishes.