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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    For SP500, the break below 200-dMA was UGLY today.
    Nasdaq Comp, R2000 and DJ Transports were already below 200-dMA.
    Only DJIA remains at 200-dMA - it may follow others this week.
    % stocks above 50-dMA remain negative (comparing with Friday).
    $NYA50R, NYSE %Above 50-dMA 34.91% (negative)
    $SPXA50R, SP500 %Above 50-dMA 43.20% (negative)

    There was a good bounce at the index level in the last hour, akin to prior washout days but at individual stock level I did not notice desperation during the day. So, is today a short term bottom? What would make the retail crowd comfortable not to keep bailing until the 18th?
    The cancellation of Tariff Theater?
    Elon Musk retiring from government service to tend to his sinking car company and exploding rockets?
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    Temptations: "Ball Of Confusion."
    https://youtu.be/D5P7x4vh_ts
    just providing a cleaner link. Easy for me to do on my computer (not so easy on my phone.)
    The Temps were so great and talented. They had it all! I much prefer their earlier Motown soul sound over their 70s disco sound.
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    For SP500, the break below 200-dMA was UGLY today.
    Nasdaq Comp, R2000 and DJ Transports were already below 200-dMA.
    Only DJIA remains at 200-dMA - it may follow others this week.
    % stocks above 50-dMA remain negative (comparing with Friday).
    $NYA50R, NYSE %Above 50-dMA 34.91% (negative)
    $SPXA50R, SP500 %Above 50-dMA 43.20% (negative)
    There was a good bounce at the index level in the last hour, akin to prior washout days but at individual stock level I did not notice widespread desperation during the day. So, is today a short term bottom? What would make the retail crowd comfortable not to keep bailing until the 18th?
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    Temptations: "Ball Of Confusion."
    https://youtu.be/D5P7x4vh_ts
    just providing a cleaner link. Easy for me to do on my computer (not so easy on my phone.)
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    For SP500, the break below 200-dMA was UGLY today.
    Nasdaq Comp, R2000 and DJ Transports were already below 200-dMA.
    Only DJIA remains at 200-dMA - it may follow others this week.
    % stocks above 50-dMA remain negative (comparing with Friday).
    $NYA50R, NYSE %Above 50-dMA 34.91% (negative)
    $SPXA50R, SP500 %Above 50-dMA 43.20% (negative)
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    A bit of perspective on valuations also from the WSJ - By Spencer Jakab, Markets A.M. newsletter.
    "Wouldn’t it be great if there were some way to quantify exuberance? At market extremes there can be. Speaking in 2002, Sun Microsystems CEO Scott McNealy was brutally honest about how dumb it was for investors to buy his company’s stock at the peak:
    Two years ago we were selling at 10 times revenues when we were at $64. At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don't need any transparency. You don't need any footnotes. What were you thinking?
    And Sun was cheap compared with Cisco Systems, which fetched as much as 38 times sales and briefly became the world’s most valuable company. There have been many comparisons with Nvidia, which recently won and lost that crown. The AI chipmaker fetched as much as 56 times sales last year. In January it lost more market value in one day than Cisco was worth at its peak.
    McNealy’s take is forehead-slappingly obvious in hindsight, but don’t buy or sell stocks on that measure alone. Outside of semiconductors, a sector inflated by Nvidia, one of the highest sales multiples back in January could be found in out-of-favor biotechnology companies. Many have little to no revenue but lots of promise.
    At the other end of the spectrum are food retailers, which typically trade around one-third times sales. As much as people complain about grocery prices, supermarkets earn paltry profit margins.
    A company that’s very profitable like Nvidia can still look reasonable on a price-to-earnings multiple. “Look” is the key word since it’s been in business for decades and its operating margin has quadrupled recently—a hard thing to sustain, as Cisco and Sun both learned.
    Even simpler numbers might have given us pause. Two months ago Nvidia was worth as much as the entire German and French stock markets combined and twice as much as all U.S. energy stocks.
    What were we thinking?"
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Wall Street Journal:
    A new round of recession fears rattled markets Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1000 points and eroding Wall Street consensus that U.S. stocks would be among this year’s biggest winners.
    Many investors had anticipated that American exceptionalism—the perceived advantages the U.S. has over other countries, such as its economic strength and technological innovations—would help drive another year of robust stock gains.
    But worries about a trade war, signs of flagging growth and splinters in the artificial-intelligence trade have taken some of the shine off that optimism. President Trump over the weekend refused to rule out a recession this year, setting off a fresh wave of declines in U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 fell 3%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost more than 4.5%. Bank stocks slid, along with shares of smaller companies perceived to be sensitive to the economy. Bonds rallied.
    The S&P 500 fell 3.1% last week, wiping out its postelection gains and pushing it into the red for 2025, a rare stint of underperformance versus many global peers. The Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory, a drop of 10% or more from its recent high.
  • tariff bluster from Trump is just that: a pretext
    Good one @Mark. BTW - TSLA off 15% today and down 55% since mid-December. Breaks my heart.
    Wonder if they’re giving them away free yet? :)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added a bit across-the-board to my 7 CEF collection (in equal amounts). That took cash from 12.5% down to 12.0% Interestingly, utilities and some real estate funds are up today.
  • West Loop Realty Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834425005240/fp0092563-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0092563-1_497.htm
    West Loop Realty Fund
    Class A Shares (Ticker Symbol: REIAX)
    Class C Shares (Ticker Symbol: REICX)
    Class T Shares (Ticker Symbol: REIDX)
    Institutional Class Shares (Ticker Symbol: REIIX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated March 10, 2025 to the currently effective
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved a Plan of Liquidation for the West Loop Realty Fund (the “Fund”). The Plan of Liquidation authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund. In order to perform such liquidation, effective immediately, the Fund is closed to all new investment.
    The Fund will be liquidated on or about April 18, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”), and shareholders may redeem their shares until the Liquidation Date. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make a liquidating distribution to its remaining shareholders equal to each shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and the Fund will be dissolved. Any liquidation proceeds paid to a shareholder should generally be treated as received in exchange for shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss depending on the shareholder’s tax basis. Shareholders (including but not limited to shareholders holding shares through tax-deferred accounts) should contact their tax advisers to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. Under certain circumstances, liquidation proceeds may be subject to withholding taxes.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, Chilton Capital Management LLC, the Fund’s sub-advisor, may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-800-207-7108 if you have any questions or need assistance.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.
  • Leuthold: current small cap valuations correlation wtih 14% forward returns
    image
    In the March issue I'd mentioned the wisdom of diversifying about from domestic large growth. (Down 4.4% in the first four hours of the day, March 10 with all of the growth categories down 10+ percentage in three months.) Leuthold shared two bits of information today. First, they had decreased and are continuing to decrease their equity exposure. As of this morning (3/10), it hovers around 50% in their tactical portfolios. And (2) since the data since 1995, valuations for small caps at this level correlate with 14% annual returns over the next five years.
    Quick screen for global and US small caps, ex-growth. Year-to-date, the winners have been Cambria Global Value ETF (up 17%), Brandes ISC (up 13.8%), Oakmark ISC (up 13%), Kopernik Global All-Cap (up 12.7%) and Dimensional International SCV ETF (up 12%). The best purely domestic SC funds are Aegis Value (up 5.3% and Longleaf SC (up 3.8%).
  • tariff bluster from Trump is just that: a pretext
    How can you invest intelligently when this is what you are dealing with. (From Josh Moon on Reddit.)
    "Attention: We will be having tariffs. Not this week though. We are having tariffs next week. But not on trucks. And also you'll need to answer five questions at your federal job. Except for some of you. Actually, none of you have to answer. And the tariffs are back on starting tomorrow, no take-backs. The tarrifs are canceled for one month. You all have to answer the five questions. Well maybe not all. Also we're going to sell 500 pieces of property like for real. We're not sure about 500, maybe only 350. Forget it, we can't decide about the properties. The tariffs are coming back. Have you answered the five questions? You don't have to. Would you like to buy some properties? Also if you've been fired and know anything about landing planes or diseases, you need to come back. Additionally, if you have thoughts on how to lower egg prices or inflation, please just put them as the five answers. Or don't. Hope this clears things up."
    Sincerely,
    Your Co-Predident
  • Euro up vs US$; International Stocks Up
    Through February (seems like years ago), a look at regional ETFs:
    3-Year Regional Index Fund Performance - US on Top
    image

    3-Month Regional Index Fund Performance - Europe on Top
    image

    Will add new unique Display period to MFOP and coin it: Trump 2.0. Will start November 2024. End current month or until there is a new president.
  • The Bond Market’s Trump Trade is Looking Like a Recession Trade - Article
    The BB article speculated on what the bond market might be saying about the economy. That’s all as far as I can see. As far as making investment changes due to some macro call like this, I would not do it. But I’m not a momentum investor.
    Wouldn’t a recession’s impact on investments depend on how deep it was? How long it lasted? And also vary by country and region? Severity would likely be impacted by the response of central banks and fiscal policymakers. Some equities might rise during a recession. High quality bonds should outperform. And based on history, stock markets begin recovering several months before a recession technically ends.
    I’d never buy or sell anything based on premonition of immediate recession. Do have a little extra dry powder and would keep an eye out for potential bargains should the economy cool off. Sometimes in severe downturns (like ‘08) I have slowly rotated from more conservative funds into more aggressive. But that’s a tactic reserved only for the darkest hours. You can’t anticipate something like that in advance.
    From today’s WSJ:
    ”A new trading week has done little to calm investors’ nerves. Stock futures and Treasury yields are both falling. President Trump over the weekend refused to rule out the U.S. economy entering a recession this year, telling Fox News there will be a “period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.” Trump’s TV appearance followed a turbulent week in markets, with concerns growing about how the administration's unpredictable tariff policies could affect U.S. growth. The S&P 500 finished Friday with a 3.1% weekly drop, its biggest such decline in six months.”
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/faa-trump-elon-plane-crash/681975/
    You really cannot believe this is rational. Time to sell airline stocks too.
    Anyone who supports these cuts needs to do a deep dive into the mechanics and demonstrate how the employees who are dismissed are really worthless freeloaders.
    There was an article a week ago demonstrating among the people fired was the only locksmith at Yosemite National Park.
    Now if you are locked out of your room ( or locked in the bathroom) too bad!
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    Absolutely merciless.
    sure, but mercy or anything like it is not the point, not when cruelty explicitly is, making public sector workers wake in fear and revulsion each morning, libtard tears etc etc
    by which I mean thinking along those lines and making the personal moral or humane argument is useless --- time for much more hardheadedness, so as not to give the sadists the satisfaction, among other things
    I mean, check this sick shit out:
    https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-doge-federal-layoffs-c41ae32800a7f170484de79572543da2
    a bad time now
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    Well @hondo, I hope that you don't live in Hondo, Texas. The folks there are very worried that cuts in Medicaid will close down their only local hospital, leaving them with almost no local medical care facilities. Before long you are talking about real problems for taxpayers.
    Potential Medicaid cuts could devastate America’s teetering rural health-care system
    HONDO, Tex. — Jaylee Williams needed to find somewhere to deliver her son. The 19-year-old knew little about the complicated metrics of who takes what health insurance. But relief for Williams came when they realized Medina Regional Hospital — just 15 minutes from their home — accepted Medicaid, the federal-state program that covers medical costs for lower-income Americans. Provider groups an hour away in San Antonio had refused to take the insurance.
    But the lifeline that the 25-bed critical-access hospital offered to Williams could disappear in Hondo and other communities like it. Rural hospitals across the United States fear that massive Medicaid cuts Republicans would have to consider under the current House budget proposal could decimate maternity services or shutter already struggling medical facilities in communities that overwhelmingly voted for Donald Trump.
    Nearly half of all rural hospitals nationwide operate at a deficit, with Medicaid barely keeping them afloat. Already, almost 200 rural hospitals have closed in the past two decades, according to the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, part of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
    Rural hospital leaders in Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas who spoke to The Washington Post warned that the enormous cuts congressional Republicans are weighing could further destroy limited health-care access in rural America. Proposals to slash up to $880 billion over 10 years — which is expected to be accomplished largely by scaling back on Medicaid — would also affect those who do not rely on the program but do rely on the medical facilities that are financially dependent on the program’s reimbursements.
    Above are edited excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post.
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    NOAA's specialized workforce provides products and services that support more than a third of the nation's GDP. But in MAGA narrative, our country will be "saved" by cutting 50% of the 12,000 NOAA workers. Approx. $600M per year in Comp savings....in the scheme of things, a veritable drop in the bucket.

    JD wrote: "$600M per year in Comp savings......in the scheme of things, a veritable drop in the bucket."
    To paraphrase an old Senator of many years ago, $600M here -- $600M there and before long you are talking about real money.