AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/3/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (41.7%, above average) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (26.1%, below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (32.2%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +15.6% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (123+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (38+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds flat, oil up, gold up, dollar down. Speculations continue about the Democratic ticket. In UK elections, Labour is ahead of Conservatives (incumbents). Paramount/NAI & Skydance deal is back. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1542/thread

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has just launched an ETF that offers 100% downside protection to investors. The new ETF (MAXJ) will have its maximum gains capped at 10.6% while protecting against the downside for a duration of 12 months. 0.5% ER
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/how-good-is-blackrock-s-new-100-downside-hedge-etf/ar-BB1pdRfO?ocid=BingNewsSerp

It represents one form of relative performance of USA growth vs value stocks. Growth has trounced value as we all know but in market sell offs value holds up better. Where are we now in that growth vs value cycle? Not at the bottom.

Now that I can see all three lines, it looks to me like one Vanguard index has trounced another Vanguard index over five years spanning rapidly changing market conditions.
If I had bought VSMIX or GQEPX five years ago I would be ahead of VUG. There may be other examples of funds that have performed better over the last five years. Those are just two that are on my watch list. I'll admit that only one of those is a value fund.
If we were to look at the last three years, during which growth has been digging itself out of a very large hole, a number of funds in my watch list outperform VUG. Only two outperform IWY.
I spent the last year ditching Vanguard index funds.
Edit to add:
Did a larger search at MFO Premium. Add HIMDX to the list of three funds that beat VUG over five years. The interesting thing about HIMDX is that it is a quant fund. Wouldn't we like to see the inside of their black box?
But what if we went back three years? There are 20 value, or equity income, funds that are beating VUG.
What if we went back to the start of "Normalization 2" which is 202112? Then we get a much larger number of value and equity income funds that are still beating VUG's return of 7.5 over that time period. (Lipper categorizes some funds as value that M* sees as blend.)
People assume that growth will continue to beat value just because. But, as with comedy, timing is everything.

As LTC Hal Moore said at the Battle of Ia Drang Valley, "Nothing's wrong ... except there's nothing's wrong."
I agree the markets are treading water and churning - there is a false sense of security forming, but at least it's not overwhelmed with bullish exuberance. Maybe that's b/c of the geopolitical and electoral climate around the world this year?

All you have to see is a nice uptrend of the SP500 chart since 11/2023(

link).

To clarify: My comments reflect my accounts (income-oriented, value equities), not the broad market.
That said, take out the Mag-7 and that chart will look a lot different, I bet.

As LTC Hal Moore said at the Battle of Ia Drang Valley, "Nothing's wrong ... except there's nothing's wrong."
I agree the markets are treading water and churning - there is a false sense of security forming, but at least it's not overwhelmed with bullish exuberance. Maybe that's b/c of the geopolitical and electoral climate around the world this year?

All you have to see is a nice uptrend of the SP500 chart since 11/2023(link).

Thanks, @Devo, for the explanation about CPSJ construction.
I am not averse to paying fees but I would rather buy an investment grade fixed income product that more guarantees to give me a 6% return at the end of the measurement period than CPSJ's promised variable 0-9% return.
I shall keep an eye on CPSM and see how close to $25 (inception price) it gets if SPY were to drop to April 30 closing price.
For any future purchases of these Calamos products, I intend to compare them to then available fixed income prospects.

VUG vs VTV vs SPY chart total returns. 5 years.
Value may remain value for good reasons and not yet ready for 'prime time'.

”JPMorgan's chief global market strategist and co-head of global research, Marko Kolanovic, is leaving the bank, according to an internal memo obtained by Bloomberg News. The move follows a disastrous two-year stretch of stock-market calls by Kolanovic. He was steadfastly bullish in much of 2022 as the S&P 500 Index sank 19% and strategists across Wall Street lowered their expectations for equities. He then turned bearish just as the market bottomed, missing last year's 24% surge in the S&P 500 as well as the 14% gain in the first half of this year.”
(This brief market news update was excerpted in its entirety from subscription based Bloomberg Media July 3, 2024)

We are screwed. Well and truly screwed. Thanks to the "supreme" court the United States is no longer the democracy that it has been since it's birth... that chapter is now closed. The next chapter is likely similar to many of those "well run" "financially stable" African or South American third-world countries whose fortunes swing wildly with every new tinpot "president" they choose. Or, in many cases, who is "chosen" for them.

Well-said, OJ. And again, it's the GQP who bleat about how we're becoming a "third world country" and "bananna republic" when it's their own idiotic shenanigans that are paving the way for that eventuality.
Even though I have a fantastic view from my place, part of me is hoping the weather waters down the DC fireworks tomorrow night as a symbol of what our present reality (and future) might be.
So once again, the GQP, enabled by the SCOTUS, has turned the country backwards in time, as this recent meme explains....

Now, let's talk about how the product can be created.
1. ETF provider asks you for $100 today.
2. 1yr interest rate in the options market is about 5.35%
3. If I invest $94.93 in some T-bill like options combinations I will get $100 in exactly 1yr time {94.93*(1+5.35%)}
4. After I am done investing the $94.93 (which by the way guarantees you 100% principal protection), I have $5.07 remaining
5. Now I also want to charge you some fees of 0.7%
6. After charging you $0.7 in fees, I have $4.36 remaining
7. I use that $4.37 to buy a SPY call spread
8. With CPSJ, ETF provider could buy a 100%-108.76% call spread on the SPY, which roughly relates to 546-593 Call Spread for $4.37
So, now, that's your ETF.
ETF provider gets 70cents of fees
You get your principal protection bcos 94.93 of your 100 was used to buy "Tbill" in the options market
You get 8.76% upside for the next 1 year.
I hope this helps.
(You can be your own ETF provider. Put 95 in TBills for 1yr and use the remaining 5 to buy Call Spreads). We can call your ETF "BLUJ" for Balu July.
PS: let me know when you are ready to send me my check for 70 cents. I accept all forms of payment

@Balubalu first CPSM. Can you see this chart? it shows that since May 1 the SPY is up 10.19% and the CPSM up about 3% This doesnt mean CPSM wont deliver. it needs time a full year to give you the capped 9.65% its promised if SPY stays at these levels. But in the meantime dont expect the ETF to grow with the SPY.
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@Devo, that shortened link is fine as a link.
But it won't work in the MFO Image tool to post the image here , only the full image-url would work (I am not doing this intentionally).
https://i.ibb.co/7rGbHRJ/Screenshot-2024-07-03-at-5-13-29-PM.png
There are other differences in these 2 links.

@sma3 hard to compare artgx as a replacement for artkx. artgx has a 45% North America allocation (which I think includes the 8.6% in cash money market ). ARTKX has 12% in North American and I think all of that is just cash money market.
Since their 10-year performance is similar, I tend to agree that ARTGX's international picks must have been less rewarding than ARTKX's.
ideally we want to look at the historical holdings or better still average historical holdings but I dont have the fool proof set of tools for that yet.

Thanks for answering my question @WABAC . I could live with 6.55 return.

de nada @Derf. I'll add that returns have been skimmpier these past few years.

@sma3, M* Investors has X-ray.
Here are 2 pages of screenshots for a Test portfolio of 50-50 ARTKX, ARTGX.
https://i.ibb.co/xJJx6CP/ARTKX-ARTGX-Screenshot1-2024-07-03-15-45-41.png
https://i.ibb.co/ChrCMF8/ARTKX-ARTGX-Screenshot2-2024-07-03-15-46-04.png

Thanks for answering my question @WABAC . I could live with 6.55 return.

Um, you missed my point. But worse, you seem to have twisted what I said.
"6% in six months would, in any other year, be considered an excellent performance. It is only in comparison to NVDA or QQQ that OAKMX looks bad."
I DID NOT compare value stocks to NVDA. I noted what I trust many posters here are NOT aware of in relation to some LCV funds this year. That is, chances are, the LCV OEFs that are significantly outperforming their peers YTD are slanted towards Growth and/or have names like NVDA in the fold.
Truth be told, OAKMX's 6% YTD performance thru 06/30/24 is far from "excellent" for this fund. It's 5-yr average annual TR is 16.5%, so it is trailing that on a 6-month basis. Its 10-yr average is 11.5%, so on par with that on a 6-month basis, or effectively an average TR for 6 months over the past 10 years.
But you REALLY lost me with this zinger:
"Almost nothing other than the Mag 7 has been up more than 5 to 10% this year."
Here are the 226/500, or 45+% of the S&P stocks that are UP over 6% YTD.
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance
Excerpt:
S&P 500 Component Year to Date Returns
# Company Symbol YTD Return
1 SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC SMCI 194.51%
2 NVIDIA CORP NVDA 147.72%
3 VISTRA CORP VST 127.67%
4 CONSTELLATION ENERGY CEG 76.36%
5 ELI LILLY + CO LLY 55.55%
6 MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC MU 55.37%
7 ARISTA NETWORKS INC ANET 51.59%
8 CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS INC A CRWD 50.81%
9 TARGA RESOURCES CORP TRGP 50.80%
10 NRG ENERGY INC NRG 50.66%
11 WESTERN DIGITAL CORP WDC 49.04%
12 APPLIED MATERIALS INC AMAT 48.61%
13 BROADCOM INC AVGO 48.49%
14 NETAPP INC NTAP 47.32%
15 KLA CORP KLAC 44.35%
16 HOWMET AEROSPACE INC HWM 44.25%
17 META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A META 43.94%
18 DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP DECK 40.72%
19 NETFLIX INC NFLX 39.58%
20 QUALCOMM INC QCOM 38.39%
21 TERADYNE INC TER 37.85%
22 LAM RESEARCH CORP LRCX 36.97%
23 AMPHENOL CORP CL A APH 36.29%
24 ORACLE CORP ORCL 35.90%
25 LEIDOS HOLDINGS INC LDOS 34.76%
26 GODADDY INC CLASS A GDDY 34.65%
27 ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD ACGL 34.64%
28 CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC CMG 34.24%
29 TRANE TECHNOLOGIES PLC TT 33.18%
30 ALPHABET INC CL A GOOGL 32.61%
31 PROGRESSIVE CORP PGR 32.55%
32 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP BSX 32.42%
33 ALPHABET INC CL C GOOG 32.41%
34 DAVITA INC DVA 32.16%
35 DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC FANG 32.13%
36 AMAZON.COM INC AMZN 31.63%
37 FAIR ISAAC CORP FICO 31.39%
38 MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC MPWR 31.38%
39 GENERAL MOTORS CO GM 30.71%
40 COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP COST 30.19%
41 EATON CORP PLC ETN 30.09%
42 INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC ISRG 30.07%
43 IRON MOUNTAIN INC IRM 29.82%
44 WALMART INC WMT 29.53%
45 KKR + CO INC KKR 27.86%
46 GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE 26.50%
47 TRANSDIGM GROUP INC TDG 26.34%
48 MCKESSON CORP MCK 26.32%
49 CORNING INC GLW 26.08%
50 BROWN + BROWN INC BRO 26.07%
51 AMERICAN EXPRESS CO AXP 25.96%
52 FIRST SOLAR INC FSLR 25.80%
53 SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL SYF 25.77%
54 CITIGROUP INC C 25.74%
55 GARMIN LTD GRMN 25.63%
56 FIDELITY NATIONAL INFO SERV FIS 25.24%
57 CATALENT INC CTLT 25.08%
58 HARTFORD FINANCIAL SVCS GRP HIG 24.45%
59 HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE HPE 24.38%
60 JUNIPER NETWORKS INC JNPR 24.05%
61 WELLS FARGO + CO WFC 23.87%
62 TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY TSCO 23.72%
63 MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS INC MSI 23.53%
64 JPMORGAN CHASE + CO JPM 22.77%
65 WABTEC CORP WAB 22.52%
66 MICROSOFT CORP MSFT 22.14%
67 EBAY INC EBAY 22.08%
68 TYLER TECHNOLOGIES INC TYL 21.74%
69 BANK OF AMERICA CORP BAC 21.56%
70 VALERO ENERGY CORP VLO 21.51%
71 WILLIAMS COS INC WMB 21.45%
72 GE VERNOVA INC GEV 21.29%
73 UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES B UHS 21.18%
74 ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD RCL 20.94%
75 SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS STX 20.80%
76 GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC GS 20.70%
77 COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO CL 20.59%
78 INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO IP 20.33%
79 PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GP PEG 20.33%
80 EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP EW 19.65%
81 DOMINO S PIZZA INC DPZ 19.50%
82 RTX CORP RTX 19.34%
83 REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS REGN 18.94%
84 DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES DFS 18.81%
85 ECOLAB INC ECL 18.81%
86 NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV NXPI 18.44%
87 HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS IN HLT 18.40%
88 SYNOPSYS INC SNPS 18.40%
89 MARATHON OIL CORP MRO 18.29%
90 HCA HEALTHCARE INC HCA 18.11%
91 FEDEX CORP FDX 17.89%
92 MODERNA INC MRNA 17.72%
93 WELLTOWER INC WELL 17.52%
94 WESTROCK CO WRK 17.51%
95 TJX COMPANIES INC TJX 17.47%
96 MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP MPC 17.38%
97 ONEOK INC OKE 17.25%
98 INGERSOLL RAND INC IR 17.22%
99 MERCK + CO. INC. MRK 17.15%
100 REPUBLIC SERVICES INC RSG 17.13%
101 RALPH LAUREN CORP RL 17.02%
102 INTL FLAVORS + FRAGRANCES IFF 17.01%
103 WASTE MANAGEMENT INC WM 16.96%
104 CINTAS CORP CTAS 16.87%
105 UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS INC UAL 16.82%
106 FOX CORP CLASS B FOX 16.82%
107 ARTHUR J GALLAGHER + CO AJG 16.51%
108 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC VRTX 16.44%
109 TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC TXN 16.40%
110 CADENCE DESIGN SYS INC CDNS 16.31%
111 BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP BK 16.23%
112 FOX CORP CLASS A FOXA 16.21%
113 DELTA AIR LINES INC DAL 16.11%
114 NEXTERA ENERGY INC NEE 16.02%
115 XYLEM INC XYL 15.66%
116 HP INC HPQ 15.65%
117 PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC PANW 15.45%
118 JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATION JCI 15.06%
119 DOVER CORP DOV 15.05%
120 ANALOG DEVICES INC ADI 14.95%
121 CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP CINF 14.88%
122 QUANTA SERVICES INC PWR 14.82%
123 UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC UBER 14.78%
124 VERALTO CORP VLTO 14.70%
125 ALLSTATE CORP ALL 14.43%
126 FREEPORT MCMORAN INC FCX 14.42%
127 APPLE INC AAPL 14.41%
128 PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC PRU 14.31%
129 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC AMP 14.23%
130 EXXON MOBIL CORP XOM 14.20%
131 ALTRIA GROUP INC MO 14.15%
132 BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CL B BRK.B 14.14%
133 VERISK ANALYTICS INC VRSK 14.02%
134 ELEVANCE HEALTH INC ELV 13.65%
135 DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC DLR 13.62%
136 KIMBERLY CLARK CORP KMB 13.56%
137 AXON ENTERPRISE INC AXON 13.49%
138 ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP CL A ZBRA 13.43%
139 AIRBNB INC CLASS A ABNB 13.37%
140 CHUBB LTD CB 13.08%
141 UNITED RENTALS INC URI 12.64%
142 ROLLINS INC ROL 12.55%
143 NEWS CORP CLASS A NWSA 12.55%
144 FISERV INC FI 12.46%
145 SERVICENOW INC NOW 12.40%
146 EMERSON ELECTRIC CO EMR 12.27%
147 T MOBILE US INC TMUS 12.26%
148 AT+T INC T 12.16%
149 WR BERKLEY CORP WRB 12.01%
150 MARSH + MCLENNAN COS MMC 11.89%
151 METTLER TOLEDO INTERNATIONAL MTD 11.88%
152 PROCTER + GAMBLE CO/THE PG 11.85%
153 KINDER MORGAN INC KMI 11.79%
154 HASBRO INC HAS 11.75%
155 CUMMINS INC CMI 11.68%
156 STRYKER CORP SYK 11.63%
157 COPART INC CPRT 11.61%
158 EQUITY RESIDENTIAL EQR 11.51%
159 CHURCH + DWIGHT CO INC CHD 11.51%
160 ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES AMD 11.46%
161 HUBBELL INC HUBB 11.21%
162 AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP AIG 11.19%
163 AUTOZONE INC AZO 11.00%
164 CATERPILLAR INC CAT 10.85%
165 WW GRAINGER INC GWW 10.77%
166 PARKER HANNIFIN CORP PH 10.71%
167 M + T BANK CORP MTB 10.69%
168 SOUTHERN CO/THE SO 10.60%
169 NEWS CORP CLASS B NWS 10.50%
170 BOOKING HOLDINGS INC BKNG 10.40%
171 KROGER CO KR 10.33%
172 TAPESTRY INC TPR 10.13%
173 CORTEVA INC CTVA 10.12%
174 ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST INC ESS 10.10%
175 RESMED INC RMD 10.07%
176 GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP GD 10.07%
177 CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP CFG 9.78%
178 CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST CPT 9.71%
179 INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE IN ICE 9.65%
180 RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC RJF 9.49%
181 GEN DIGITAL INC GEN 9.38%
182 CARRIER GLOBAL CORP CARR 9.36%
183 BUNGE GLOBAL SA BG 9.34%
184 O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC ORLY 9.16%
185 MOODY S CORP MCO 9.08%
186 AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC AVB 9.07%
187 VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC VZ 9.02%
188 PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA PKG 8.96%
189 THE CIGNA GROUP CI 8.84%
190 WILLIS TOWERS WATSON PLC WTW 8.67%
191 STEEL DYNAMICS INC STLD 8.64%
192 WALT DISNEY CO/THE DIS 8.53%
193 INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP IBM 8.41%
194 AFLAC INC AFL 8.40%
195 CENCORA INC COR 8.34%
196 PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL PM 8.04%
197 VULCAN MATERIALS CO VMC 7.96%
198 AMGEN INC AMGN 7.90%
199 AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER AEP 7.88%
200 SCHWAB (CHARLES) CORP SCHW 7.78%
201 LOEWS CORP L 7.69%
202 NISOURCE INC NI 7.61%
203 OTIS WORLDWIDE CORP OTIS 7.24%
204 FIFTH THIRD BANCORP FITB 7.22%
205 MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS MLM 7.20%
206 COCA COLA CO/THE KO 7.16%
207 TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP TFC 7.15%
208 CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP COF 7.14%
209 CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC A STZ 7.11%
210 ABBVIE INC ABBV 7.09%
211 UDR INC UDR 7.05%
212 TRAVELERS COS INC/THE TRV 6.91%
213 MORGAN STANLEY MS 6.86%
214 TE CONNECTIVITY LTD TEL 6.72%
215 TEXTRON INC TXT 6.67%
216 CENTERPOINT ENERGY INC CNP 6.62%
217 MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC MHK 6.60%
218 NVR INC NVR 6.57%
219 TYSON FOODS INC CL A TSN 6.46%
220 MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL CL A MAR 6.42%
221 T ROWE PRICE GROUP INC TROW 6.42%
222 AVERY DENNISON CORP AVY 6.41%
223 GENERAC HOLDINGS INC GNRC 6.24%
224 L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES INC LHX 6.16%
225 EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO EMN 6.16%
226 JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC J 6.14%

@stillers
Almost nothing other than the Mag 7 has been up more than 5 to 10% this year.
6% in six months would, in any other year, be considered an excellent performance. It is only in comparison to NVDA or QQQ that OAKMX looks bad.
Comparing value stocks to NVDA is really impossible, as they have almost nothing in common.
I have always been leery of Momentum as it can turn on a dime and I am not quick enough to get on early and always get off late. Having said that I did buy a little NVDA in March.
Consistency of earnings, reasonable prices for cash flow etc are much more useful metrics to me

@devo
Any thoughts on ARTGX's international stock performance? A quick look shows ARTGX Domestic portfolio has some of the usual suspects META 4% GOOGL 4% BRK.B 4% but isn't loaded and no NVDA or MSFT, so I am unsure of how much support this would provide.
There is not a huge overlap between ARTKX and ARTGX international portfolio at least now.
Samsung ( both 5%) Danone ( both 4%) Novartis (both 4%) UBS ( 4% s 2.3%)

@WABAC " Stared at VWINX, which I have owned forever, and blinked. I couldn't figure out why to hold onto it. Sold it "
Do you have an idea what your annual return was ?
Thanks for your time, Derf

No clue. It was bought before they were required to keep track of cost basis. IIRC, any other return info at Vanguard was the most recent ten years.
When I added it into my watch fund at M* I just used the price it was at on Jan 1, 2012. Since then it has returned 6.55.