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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • ‘the biggest bond bubble’ ever
    That's correct.
    Rexx:
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/rexx/financials?ltr=1
    http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/072815/oil-companies-near-bankruptcy.asp --- says REXX to fall; this was over a year ago. Still. So I could lose $3500 more.
    Locations:
    http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Rex+Energy+(REXX)+Updates+on+Moraine+East,+Appalachian+Basin+Operations%3B+BSP+Elects+into+Additional+Wells/11758150.html
    So I dunno. They just completed a big sale in Illinois. I am not buying more.
  • Charles Schwab Fires Latest Salvo In Low-Cost TDF War
    I hold some Schwab 2030 TDF (SWDRX) and have been happy with it's performance over the years. However, YTD performance has fallen off sharply (91st percentile). I'm not panicking yet, but does anyone have any idea of what might be going on this year?
  • ‘the biggest bond bubble’ ever
    @Davidrmoran Three factors to consider with energy stocks now:
    1. Balance sheet strength--those with least debt or manageable debt with distant maturity dates will survive.
    2. Marginal cost of production.
    3. Geopolitical risk of well locations.
    Many energy stocks are over-levered so even if their common stock shares seem cheap, they will be worthless in a bankruptcy as the debt holders get everything.
  • ‘the biggest bond bubble’ ever
    Well, somebody's been buying for the last couple of years. Is all of that you, David?
    image
  • Why Money Markets Should Be Expecting A Bumpy September
    @Ted 's transcription is correct. But I doubt any MMF ever grows weary of rolling over paper. To paraphrase GEICO, if you're a MMF, that's what you do.
    Rather, given the rate of outflows, prime MMFs are likely wary of rolling over paper into new three month holdings. As the WSJ writes:
    Because prime funds are afraid of facing even stronger outflows after Oct. 14, they’ve been weary of stashing their money in assets that mature after that.
    "Weary" is repeated, so it's not a typo. In the WSJ. Is nothing sacred?
  • The Pitched Battle Over Mutual Fund Reports You Probably Don’t Even Read
    The proposal doesn't do away with paper. It just makes paper opt-in, rather than opt-out. Even if you've chosen electronic, it would require funds to send a printed version at no cost on demand, within three days of your request.
    The proposal doesn't require funds to even offer electronic versions, let alone make them the default.
    @hank 's got the right link. The part of the doc pertaining to the paperless proposal (a new Rule 30E-3) starts on p. 149. What's there is a clear discussion of the background, the thinking, and how the rules would work. That is, English as opposed to actual legalize text of the proposed rule.
    The Bloomberg article cites Roll Call as estimating the potential savings at $2B/decade. According to the SEC report, the savings are way less than that. Total printing costs are about $116M, and given the number of funds/investors expected to participate, the savings on printing would be about $105M/year. Offsetting that are new costs (maintaining web site, mailing paper copies on demand, etc.) totaling about $32M/year.
    Net savings/decade (my calculation) = ($105M - $32M) x 10 = $3/4B.
    IMHO the real savings are in costs to the environment - trees (as mentioned in Bloomberg), energy for paper recycling (or landfill), and mailing/shipping (fuel).
    You can find the comments that people (and companies) have submitted here:
    https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-15/s70815-123.pdf
  • Charles Schwab Fires Latest Salvo In Low-Cost TDF War
    FYI: Charles Schwab Corp. has upped the ante in the push to be the lowest-cost provider of target-date retirement funds, launching a new series of target-dated mutual funds on Thursday that edge out Vanguard Group and Fidelity Investments to claim the title as cheapest on the market to date.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160825/FREE/160829963?template=printart
  • Why Money Markets Should Be Expecting A Bumpy September
    FYI: Prime money funds will be weary of rolling over commercial paper and certificates of deposit a month ahead of the new U.S. regulation being enacted.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/08/24/why-money-markets-should-be-expecting-a-bumpy-september/
  • Investor Love For Emerging Markets Is More Than A Summer Fling
    FYI: Emerging markets are sizzling and it has nothing to do with the heat wave.
    As yield-starved investors go further afield in search of returns, emerging markets have witnessed a jump in investment. And as the money continues to flow into the sector, fears of an imminent bubble have started to percolate, raising the specter of an impending crash.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investor-love-for-emerging-markets-is-more-than-a-summer-fling-2016-08-24/print
  • ‘the biggest bond bubble’ ever
    REXX is a play, solvent and productive but extremely cheap, 61 cents or so, but it may take awhile, esp if NG pricing goes even lower. I am thinking the downside is nearly nonexistent.
    DM, from dec 2014, when price was around $5/share: "I don't know how anyone is going to lose buying REXX now --- financially solid, just takes patience. Awfully low. Just one example."
    i really do have to admire your tenacity. i think you've bought more all the way down. have you held onto all your shares? at some point REXX is going to take off and hopefully make you rich beyond words. I might have to throw $500 at it, just to join you in my own small way. should it go back to $5/sh, that'd make me $4k happier.
    or, it could just go to 1 cent and join certain marijuana stocks i bought in 2014 and that still clutter up my monthly statements.
    anyway, how financially solvent do you think the company still is?
  • The Pitched Battle Over Mutual Fund Reports You Probably Don’t Even Read
    Intriguing topic. Sketchy at best on exactly what the SEC is proposing. Maybe this is the proposal the article references? https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2015/33-9776.pdf
    If I read the above correctly, funds would no longer be required to make paper copies of fund reports available to investors. I get it. Saves money and trees. Can't stop progress I suppose.
    Personally, much as I enjoy pleasure reading in digital form, there's something unique about legal/financial language and content that I find easier to digest in print. I wouldn't want to sign off on a 30 year mortgage for which I'd seen only a digital copy. I find Barrons much more more rewarding in print. And I don't like the thought of handing over my hard earned money to a firm whose reports exist only in the digital realm.
    The suggestion in the article byline that most investors don't bother to read their fund reports sounds absurd. If you trust your manager enough to give him/her your money to invest, surely you value his or her insights into the markets and his/her unique perspectives on why the fund is invested the way it is. Not read the reports? Nuts.
  • Nuance Concentrated Value L-S
    @JoJo26:
    QLEIX and QLENX are available in Fidelity retirement accounts for $100K and $500 minimums, respectively, with a TF.
    @msf:
    I totally agree with your assessment of the ER. That is why I have been advocating for years that M* report on the fund's front page the actual expense ratio that investors will be paying, as detailed in the prospectus. In this case, the actual ER of 1.87% should be reported on the fund's front page. And notice that this 1.87% figure doesn't even appear in the expense breakdown for the fund. M* could report this accurate ER but chooses to not do so, likely to favor fund managements over investors. M* could and should do better.
    Kevin
  • Nuance Concentrated Value L-S

    The Long/Short Equity space is very troubled, as there have been very few funds which have had attractive long-term performance, and the expenses of such funds are inherently high, which serves as a drag for future performance. Whenever I look at a space with many entrants but few winners, I instinctively avoid the space, and I think that this is generally the right move.
    Concur completely. Personally I go further - I tend to avoid "esoteric" categories even if they have a modest number of successful funds, at least until a category has proven itself through stressful periods.

    Furthermore, M* understates -- as usual -- the actual expense ratio that investors pay for NCLIX, which is actually a net ER of 1.87%, not the 1.55% listed on M*'s front page.
    That's because M* is excluding leveraging costs. The flip side, according to M*, is that depending on how that leveraging is achieved, its cost may still be hidden (even if M* isn't the one doing the hiding). Pick your poison.
    Morningstar elects to exclude interest and dividend expense from the net expense ratio in order to provide the end investor with an apples-to-apples comparison of expense ratios. Depending on the leveraging techniques employed by the fund, the fund may or may not be required to report interest and dividend expense. For example, funds that employ shorting strategies or reverse-repo transactions are required to report interest expense in the Annual Report whereas funds that employ futures, swaps, TBAs, and forwards are not required to report the cost associated with those instruments as interest expense.
  • Nuance Concentrated Value L-S
    I'd love to invest in QLENX. Unfortunately, I don't have $1,000,000, much less $1,000,000 to allocate to L/S Equity.
  • Nuance Concentrated Value L-S
    @JoJo26:
    The Long/Short Equity space is very troubled, as there have been very few funds which have had attractive long-term performance, and the expenses of such funds are inherently high, which serves as a drag for future performance. Whenever I look at a space with many entrants but few winners, I instinctively avoid the space, and I think that this is generally the right move. From my perspective, there are exactly two attractive funds in the space -- BPLSX/BPLEX and QLEIX/QLENX -- with only the latter being open to new investors.
    The managers of this very young fund have done a pretty good job at their long-only equity fund, NCVLX. I am not sure how they will do in the more treacherous L/S space. Furthermore, M* understates -- as usual -- the actual expense ratio that investors pay for NCLIX, which is actually a net ER of 1.87%, not the 1.55% listed on M*'s front page.
    If you must invest in this space, I would consider QLEIX/QLENX. As for NCLIX, I would wait for a track record to develop and would be reluctant to be an early investor, as it opened its doors very recently on 12/31/2015.
    Kevin
  • ‘the biggest bond bubble’ ever
    nice job there vilifying the guy (not saying he shouldn't be no love lost here) by saying in the main article he makes his fortune sewing countries with bad debt, then correcting it at the end of article with * saying only 2% of his funds do that. No one is going to read that footnote. :D
  • when should I act?
    Long term should have nothing to do with it. What matters is the cost of entry to the market, not how long you stay in it. In this regard, lump sum usually beats buying in over a period of time (say a year, though the length is not important). That's because the market tends to go up, so the earlier you invest, the cheaper (on average) are your shares.
    For example, suppose you invest $1,000/mo for the next twelve months, and compare that with investing $12,000 all at once. At the end of the year, you'll have X shares if you bought each month, and Y shares if you bought all at the beginning.
    After that, no matter how long or short you're invested, if Y is greater than X, you'll have done better with lump sum investing (since the return on each share going forward is the same, and you have more shares this way). Conversely, if you got more shares by spreading out your purchases (X is greater than Y), then no matter what your subsequent holding period long or short, you'll have done better by spreading out your purchases.
    Where long term vs. short term makes a difference is where you buy different investments. There long term matters, because you're looking at long term trends. That's why holding 100% equity is better than a stock/bond portfolio if you can wait long enough. The problems are (a) this makes people too uneasy, and (b) you may have to wait too long for the trend to manifest, and in the long run we're all dead.
    hear, hear! long term is for the birds. Patience is key. what I would say is think differently. think about moving cash to some multiple different funds, not just ONE fund. Chose all index funds and look at those that are not doing well. buy a chunk. wait to buy next chunk. and next. and next.
  • Nuance Concentrated Value L-S
    looks interesting but news on it is also nuanced with just 18 mil in assets, best to wait and see a bit.
  • when should I act?
    Long term should have nothing to do with it. What matters is the cost of entry to the market, not how long you stay in it. In this regard, lump sum usually beats buying in over a period of time (say a year, though the length is not important). That's because the market tends to go up, so the earlier you invest, the cheaper (on average) are your shares.
    For example, suppose you invest $1,000/mo for the next twelve months, and compare that with investing $12,000 all at once. At the end of the year, you'll have X shares if you bought each month, and Y shares if you bought all at the beginning.
    After that, no matter how long or short you're invested, if Y is greater than X, you'll have done better with lump sum investing (since the return on each share going forward is the same, and you have more shares this way). Conversely, if you got more shares by spreading out your purchases (X is greater than Y), then no matter what your subsequent holding period long or short, you'll have done better by spreading out your purchases.
    Where long term vs. short term makes a difference is where you buy different investments. There long term matters, because you're looking at long term trends. That's why holding 100% equity is better than a stock/bond portfolio if you can wait long enough. The problems are (a) this makes people too uneasy, and (b) you may have to wait too long for the trend to manifest, and in the long run we're all dead.
  • Expectations is Not Forecasting
    Hi Guys,
    Here is a Link to a superior article from Morgan Housel that highlights the big difference between expectations and forecasts:
    http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/08/22/expectations-vs-forecasts.aspx?source=iaasitlnk0000003
    The distinction is significant. Housel and I would have a very friendly coffee discussion together. We agree on most things. Expectations are typically formulated based on a careful review on relevant historical data sets. Forecasting belongs to soothsayers. Forecasting does become more meaningful if odds based on expectations are attached to it.
    Best Regards.