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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • ‘the biggest bond bubble’ ever
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-hedge-fund-honcho-paul-singer-is-calling-this-the-biggest-bond-bubble-ever-2016-08-18
    What will make it pop? "What’s the big worry? A sudden move in rates that in a crowded trade could leave investors with brutal losses." What would cause a sudden move in rates?
    I'm not saying it won't happen I'm just looking for the signs it is on the road to happen.
    The classical reasons - shortage of materials, labor, capital to meet demand are not there.
    High oil prices? That has happened and there wasn't a ripple effect.
    The only thing I can think about is a large war. Not like the 16 year we have been fighting - more like Vietnam.
    Thoughts?
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    @davidmoran - One of the things people don't pay enough attention to when looking at tax efficiency is what one gets, after-tax, when cashing out.
    Though DSENX appears to have a similar tax cost to LCV long term figures (in the 1.5% ballpark), this is not taking into account the hidden tax liability it's carrying due to NAV appreciation. In contrast to DSENX, the LCV funds are not carrying the same untaxed appreciation. That makes DSENX less tax efficient as I'll explain below.
    First a simple example - compare a savings bond with a hypothetical fund, both returning 5% pre-tax. Savings bond interest is tax-deferred until the bond is cashed out. We'll assume that our fund generates only long term gains, but that it recognizes all of its gains annually. So if it starts with $100, at the end of the year it's made $5 in cap gains, on which $1 tax is paid (20% top rate, ignoring Medicare surtax), and has only $104 invested going forward.
    If the investor cashes out at the end of ten years, the savings bond will have appreciated to $169.89, but after paying 39.6% taxes on the $69.89 gain, is left with only $138 (well, $137.99). The fund, which was tax-inefficient (distributing 100% of its gains yearly) is worth $148 (okay, $148.02). Since taxes were paid on appreciation as it went along, there are no gains recognized on the sale.
    The totally inefficient fund came out way ahead, because although it kept distributing income, that was low tax rate income.
    What you're seeing with DSENX isn't quite as stark, but similar. The LCV funds are distributing most of their income, but that tends to be lower-tax rate qualified divs. DSENX has a similar total return, but is distributing a smaller portion of its total return. Like the savings bond, it has a greater tax liability when cashed out than do the LCV funds which are more similar to the dividend paying hypothetical fund.
    Even though DSENX is paying out a smaller percentage of its total return, the tax on that payout (tax cost) is similar to the tax on the LCV distributions. That's because the DSENX distributions come from bonds, and are thus taxed mostly at the higher ordinary income tax rate.
    That's the key to the tax inefficiency of funds like this. They take what ought to be a tax-efficient investment (long term stock holdings) and mimic its total return, but in a tax-inefficient way (using bonds).
    FWIW, Fidelity reports that the long term (10 year) tax cost ratio for LCV funds is 1.12%, less than the 1.5 ballpark I suggested above.
    ---
    Briefly, why I don't like ETNs' risk - they're effectively bonds of a single issuer. If you were investing in bonds, would you put so much money into the bonds of one company, or would you diversify? Why or why not? What if you really, really trusted that one company?
    It's similar but not identical to a risk in buying insurance (you're just another creditor to the insurance company). But with insurance, regulators see to it that the company has a certain level of reserves, and there are also state guarantee funds. No such controls or backstops here.
  • Anyone have a good biotech fund?
    ep1:FYI: 1. Fidelity Select Biotechnology Portfolio: (FBIOX)
    2. T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund: (PRHSX)
    3 . Janus Global Life Sciences Fund: (JAGLX)
    4. Franklin Biotechnology Discovery Fund: (FBDIX)
    5. IShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index: (IBB
    Regards,
    Ted
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    @msf
    >> DSENX or any of its ilk belongs strictly in a tax-sheltered account. Holding bonds in lieu of equity, their tax efficiency is horrendous.
    Fido shows before- vs after-tax delta to be no worse than LV category (to the contrary, in fact), unless I misread. Incorrect?
    See
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/258620814
    PSTKX slightly lags SP500 since Nov 2013 while DSENX outperforms handily.
    Before 4y ago, though, PSTKX outperforms, as you noted. I wonder why the crossing for the last 4y. You anticipate that that outperformance should resume, sounds like.
    Finally, is CAPE etn worry, and trading difficulty, actual?
  • John Waggoner: Vanguard, The King Of Passive Investing, Hops On Board The Active ETF Train
    FYI:Vanguard, where the world goes to catch a ride on index funds, is building a new station for actively managed exchange-traded funds.
    In a recent filing the with Securities and Exchange Commission, the Valley Forge, Pa., fund giant asked for exemptive relief for offering actively managed ETFs. “This application gives us the flexibility to offer actively managed strategies,” said Vanguard spokeswoman Katie Hirt. “We're making sure we're set up in the future to provide that flexibility
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160817/FREE/160819933?template=printart
    WSJ Article:
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/vanguard-asks-sec-to-approve-an-active-etf-for-u-s-1471458390
  • Edward Jones Shakes Up Retirement Offerings Ahead Of Fiduciary Rule
    FYI: Edward Jones unveiled how it will serve retirement savers in light of new federal rules governing brokers, showing it will curtail mutual-fund access for retirement savers in accounts that charge commissions and slash investment minimums on others
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/edward-jones-shakes-up-retirement-offerings-ahead-of-fiduciary-rule-1471469692
  • Deja vu ? Fidelity Was A Big Second-Quarter Buyer Of Valeant Shares
    The Boston-based mutual-fund giant, which holds Valeant’s stock in a number of its funds, sharply boosted its holdings in the second quarter
    Valeant's stock is taking a beating as their reported earnings being questioned while the company is being investigated for their business practice. Is this something that will blow over or double down while the price is good. YTD of Fido Biotech is down 16.8% while Vanguard Health Care is down only 0.1%.
  • M*: These Funds Are Oldies But Goodies
    FYI: Even though they're 65-plus, these funds still make the short list for Morningstar's analysts.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=765114
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    So far, DSENX has done what it has promised. It is one of a class of funds typically offered by bond houses (e.g. MetWest, PIMCO, DoubleLine) where the sponsor tries to apply its bond expertise to the equity market via derivatives.
    Looking at a funds like PSTKX, it seems that it is possible to add some value above an index. PSTKX long term (15 years) has added about 40 basis pts/year. According to its prospectus, DSENX has added about half that (per year) for its first 26 months of existence (through December 2015). It has done much better in 2016, though.
    So the performance (relative to an index) may be sustainable, especially with a good bond fund manager. But there is risk in the technique, which can have short term blowups. In contrast, an ETN by design has no tracking risk (beyond bid/ask spread). But it does have credit risk (backed only by its sponsor, not with any real securities in a portfolio).
    I'm no fan of ETNs, so on that basis alone I'd take DSENX over CAPE. But that's me.
    DSENX or any of its ilk belongs strictly in a tax-sheltered account. Holding bonds in lieu of equity, their tax efficiency is horrendous. In contrast, stock and bond ETNs are supposed to be extremely tax efficient (more so than ETFs). So that could tip the balance the other way in a taxable account.
    Have I equivocated sufficiently? :-)
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    >> the fund has beaten this index also since inception, but by a much smaller margin,
    Yeah, ~3.6% and ~4.1% (DSEEX) in toto since Nov '13 is the value the bond sauce has added, by my calculation. So is it worth it over CAPE?
    Interesting they do not do the factsheet indexing right.
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    The fact sheet and prospectus both state that "The Fund’s investment objective is to seek total return which exceeds the total return of its benchmark index."
    The fact sheet goes further to claim that the benchmark is the S&P 500. (In case there's any doubt, the benchmark returns it gives are S&P 500 performance figures.) But that's not the index the fund's designed to beat.
    The prospectus states clearly: "The Fund seeks total return (capital appreciation and current income) in excess of the Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector TR USD Index (the “Index")."
    This is important because it means that if one is comparing performance with the S&P 500, one is making the wrong comparison. The prospectus gives comparisons against both the S&P 500 and the CAPE® index. The fact sheet's omission of CAPE® index figures strikes me as downright deceptive.
    Similarly, the webcast page shows the fund handily beating the S&P 500 since inception, but doesn't give performance figures for the CAPE® index that it is tracking. It is true that the fund has beaten this index also since inception, but by a much smaller margin, and the fund fell short in 2015.
    Beating the true index that a fund is "enhancing" is what's hard. It's why AlphaTrak for example is just slightly ahead of its benchmark index (which really is the S&P 500 for that fund) over five years, while slightly behind over 10 and 15 years.
    The whole thing strikes me as similar to corporations reporting adjusted EBITDA instead of GAAP. If you want objective facts and figures, you need to go to the standardized, legal documents.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-08/wsj-looks-non-gaap-earnings-horrified-what-it-finds
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    Here is a 2 page recap of a Feb. webcast DSENX. A good overview and explanation of the methodology used in the DSENX strategy.
    Jeffrey Sherman – Shiller Enhanced CAPE® webcast titled
    “A + B = C”
    Tuesday, February 9th, 2016
    http://doublelinefunds.com/pdf/2-9-16_Webcast_Recap.pdf
    Latest fact sheet dated July 31.2016
    http://www.doublelinefunds.com/wp-content/uploads/shiller-enhanced-cape-fact-sheet.pdf
  • MSCFX (news item)
    ...And I note that it owns Buffalo Wild Wings. Some hedge fund or something with influence wants to clean house at BWW and get a new head honcho and board, I noted today on tv. I got into MSCFX in April, 2012. A VERY fortunate selection. Exceeding all expectations.
  • Chuck Jaffe: Whatever Happened To The Heavyweight Mutual Fund Managers?
    I suspect the proliferation of ETFs, ETNs, and particularly the "enhanced" versions (3X bull, 3X bear, etc.) has made the star manager a relic. I for one wish the financial press would not list ETFs alongside MFs when highlighting the quarterly, yearly, and longer performance figures. If gold rose during the last quarter, of what utility is to the average investor to see some ETF on anabolic steroids at the top of the performance ranking for all funds? What use is it to show that bearish ETFs top the list of 10-year losers? These days, such lists do not reveal talented managers. Old-timers like me enjoy poring over MF statistics the way I studied MLB stats as a kid. Unfortunately, what appears in the NYT, WSJ, and Barron's these days is dreck contaminated by funds most investors ought never touch.
  • Past Performance Is Not An Indicator Of Future Outcomes For 92.7% Of Mutual Funds
    FYI: “Past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes.”
    That’s a variation of a disclaimer you’ll see in mutual fund marketing materials.
    “Yet, due to either force of habit or conviction, investors and advisors consider past performance and related metrics to be important factors in fund selection,” S&P’s Aye Soe writes.
    Specifically, investors will often find themselves attracted to the funds with the best track records, believing that there is some magic touch there that’ll result in persistent riches.
    Unfortunately, data shows that the exact opposite is true
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mutual-fund-past-performance-scorecard-171510113.html
  • Chuck Jaffe: Whatever Happened To The Heavyweight Mutual Fund Managers?
    Consistent alpha premium has been produced over legendary managers performances through the use of funds focusing on risk factors and the use of tactical factors.
    For example, an equal weighted blend of emerging small cap / small cap value / large cap value * allocation made from Nov 1 to Apr 30 ( "Sell in May" tactical factor ) and switched to the utilities sector (or cash) from May 1 to Oct 31. When high risk year is indicated ( quantitative price based variable # 2 ** ( tactical factor / variable )) allocate to cash May 1 - Oct 31.
    Thus this process has produced alpha and reduced risk of ruin through the exploitation of:
    - market / risk factors ( size = small, value )
    - "valuation" risk - emerging markets ("small cap") combined with domestic (small cap value) has reduced "valuation" risk and provided diversification
    - low(er) volatility ... Large cap stock universe
    - the "Sell in May" "tactical" factor
    - risk forecasting for the upcoming year / avoidance of systemic, idiosyncratic market risk statistically occurring in the fall months ( May - Oct period )
    Over a 60+ year sample run on the strategy *** ( encompassing different bull and bear cycles, market valuation levels, economic regimes ) the strategy produced alpha higher than the returns produced by the likes Templeton, Neff, and Buffet / Munger.
    The advent and evolution of low expense funds / ETFs specializing in these risk factors makes it easy for the average investor to be "their own" legendary manager without reliance on an "expert's" esoteric asset selection methodology.
    * DFA Emerging small cap, U.S. Small cap value, U.S. large cap value fund data used 1994 - 2016 and IFA emerging index, U.S. small cap value, and U.S. large cap data used 1954 - 1994.
    ** http://tinyurl.com/z9xddr5
    *** https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tvKoFaFCQhbO5gQSld7i8TMPw_ZTXB1-AA_9velX_tM/edit#gid=102066566
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    Right about now @Roy may be wondering why no one (except Junkster) responded to his thread on Synthetic Investments like MetWest AlphaTrak 500 MWATX.
    http://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/28903/synthetic-investments
    Enhanced funds where the "enhancement" comes from bond investments (as opposed, say, to quant tinkering with the baseline index) tend to use the same technique - gain exposure to the specified index via derivatives and invest in bonds with the remaining cash. So you can see where the "alpha" in AlphaTrak 500 comes from, and you can pretty well guess which index it's "trak"ing.
    AlphaTrak is characterized as a large cap blend fund even though it holds no stocks, just bonds and derivatives (that track the S&P 500). DSENX fund in contrast does hold some stocks, but it's still mostly bonds and derivatives using the same basic technique to enhance its baseline index. It's the index, not the fund, doing the sector rotation.
    From the prospectus:
    The Fund will seek to use derivatives, or a combination of derivatives and direct investments to provide a return that tracks closely the performance of the Index. The Fund will also invest in a portfolio of debt securities to seek to provide additional long-term total return. The Fund uses investment leverage...
    Emphasis in prospectus. I'm curious that the web page quoted mentions only swaps. The prospectus in commenting on the derivatives used, says "the Fund might enter into swap transactions or futures transactions" to track the index.
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    I bought DSENX earlier this year, and I and remember nothing about swaps and derivatives. Maybe I misunderstood objectives but basically the fund is a value fund investing in sector indexes that are at the time the 5 cheapest s&p500 sectors to invest in. It throws out the sector with the poorest momentum.
    Fom the double Line website:
    Strategy
    The Shiller Enhanced CAPE® strategy offers exposure to the “cheapest sectors” of the large cap equity markets using an “Index Overlay” technique while the remaining assets are invested in a fixed income portfolio. Both segments of the portfolio offer a value play in their respective markets. The Barclays Shiller CAPE® US Sector Index strives to outperform the S&P 500 Index, while the fixed income side strives to outperform cash, thus offering one diversified value product with two unique source of possible value.
    Philosophy
    The Barclays Shiller CAPE® US Sector Index shifts the exposure to the “cheapest” sectors of the large cap equity market by using Dr. Robert Shiller’s CAPE® Ratio which seeks to assess longer term equity valuations by using an inflation adjusted earnings horizon that is 10 times longer than the traditional Price Earnings or P/E measure. The Relative CAPE® Ratio subdivides the S&P 500 into 10 sectors, eliminating the 5 with the highest relative CAPE® ratios, leaving what we believe are the 5 better value proposition sectors. Index methodology eliminates the one sector with the worst one-year momentum, to try and avoid the value trap.
    Index Overlay Process
    Using a total return index swap to gain the exposure to the Barclays Shiller CAPE® US Sector Index, the remaining assets are then invested into, what we believe to be, a lower-risk bond portfolio with the goal of trying to outperform cash. This provides a double-value proposition, where we believe we can add value to both sides of the portfolio.
  • MSCFX (news item)
    Yes, and furthermore, the fund owns Cardinal Financial, which is in talks with U.S. Bancorp to be acquired. CFNL up 5% as of 1010 EDT.
  • Deja vu ? Fidelity Was A Big Second-Quarter Buyer Of Valeant Shares
    FYI: Some of the largest mutual fund owners of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International bid adieu to the troubled drug maker in the first half of the year.
    Not Fidelity.
    The Boston-based mutual-fund giant, which holds Valeant’s stock in a number of its funds, sharply boosted its holdings in the second quarter
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/08/16/fidelity-was-a-big-second-quarter-buyer-of-valeant-shares/