I want to thank each of you very much for your detailed and thoughtful comments. I'm always impressed reading about the strategies that each of you employ. I've got a lot to learn. Thanks in particular to Scott, Press,and Old Skeet for the discussion of specific ideas and links. Gives me some great weekend reading for strategy development!
Scott, I'm quite intrigued by your discussion of real estate investments. You clearly know this area well. If I'm somewhat limited in the amount of capital currently available I'm wondering if it might be better to with a REIT fund vs. individual names. Are there specific funds that you like a great deal in this area? If not, I can do some research on the names that you list above and perhaps just buy small positions across a few stocks. I'm also reading up on Ecolab based on your earlier posts. That also looks quite interesting. thanks so much again everyone!
Good article on dividend payers in Morningstar today --
http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=712994
Thanks!
I think my issue - and I emphasize that this is a me thing - is that I don't want a lot of retail and I don't want apartments. The latter is more an instance of "at this time" and the former is more of a long-term view. I've thought for a long time that - in terms of retail - the highest quality and most innovative operators will succeed. I also have no interest in hotel REITs.
I think "dime-a-dozen" mall operators will struggle or go. DDR - which was obliterated in 2008 and is still nowhere remotely near its pre-2008 levels - is an example of what I don't want. Simon Property took its strip malls and spun them off into a different company. We are overbuilt on retail in this country and one of the reasons (among many) that I've never really been enamored with the Sears bull thesis.
"Consider this: The number of enclosed shopping malls with a vacancy rate at or above 40% – the point at which malls typically enter their death throes – has more than tripled since 2006. Nearly
15% of all enclosed malls are suffering from a vacancy rate between
10% and 40%, according to Green Street Advisors" (
http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/03/11/mall-reit-simon-property-group/)
I like Tanger Outlets (SKT) due to management and due to the fact that people like the high-end outlet concept. Go to one of these high-end outlet malls on a weekend and they're jammed. Go to one of them on a particularly busy period (when people are doing back to school shopping or Christmas shopping) and they're a mob scene. At least that I've seen.
General Growth (which I have exposure to via Brookfield Property) and Simon (SPG) are fine, with the latter also having a significant portfolio of premium outlets. So, I'm not a fan of malls. I do think that some large, quality operators will innovate and continue to succeed, but I really, really don't want much exposure to malls and I don't want strip malls/dime-a-dozen malls.
Retail Opportunity (ROIC), which I mentioned above, is somewhat different from the fact that it is retail, but with need-based anchors (drug stores and grocery stores), which I think gives that some level of defensiveness.
I think apartments in major cities are a compelling investment with high barriers to entry and people have to live somewhere. That said, I don't feel comfortable investing in apartment REITs with apartment rents at absolute record highs that don't feel terribly sustainable over the long-term. I like things like Equity Residential (EQR), but I have no interest in them at these levels. Again, longer-term I think quality apartments in major cities are great, but they'd need to come down quite a bit to get to an interesting entry point.
I don't own it, but I'm slightly interested in things like Lamar Advertising (LAMR), a REIT that is basically outdoor/indoor advertising spaces. I do think that with the rise of mobile phones, people who are waiting at the airport and elsewhere will have an increasingly larger level of interactivity with advertisements on a daily basis. Their website is pretty ridiculous, you can literally see every advertising space they own. I'm not looking to add to much of anything right now, but I may explore this further. There are only a few major billboard companies and those few enjoy the majority of market share. Also, regulations may limit new competition. This wasn't a REIT until a year or two ago. The real big problem here in the short-to-mid term is that it is at its core .... advertising. In a 2008 situation, this will get
obliterated. Longer-term I do think outdoor advertising may become a more and more compelling space as there is more and more interactivity due to smartphones - someone's sitting at an airport and they can scan a cereal poster with their phone for a coupon and when they use their mobile wallet to buy the cereal the coupon will already be there. We're not there yet, but I think it's an eventuality.
Not a fan of hotel REITs not because, I mean, look at 2008. Many of these companies bought right into the top and not only were the shares rocked, many either cut or eliminated dividends, with some not bringing dividends back for years after - see Strategic Hotels and Resorts - while that is now entertaining a possible sale, it was $23 in 2007 and $
1 by 2008 and never reinstated its dividend. Are hotels in major cities interesting in terms of barriers to entry? In theory, but geez, these are economically super-sensitive.
I like high quality office space in major metropolitan areas. Brookfield (BPY, or BAM if you want to go with the parent if you don't want to deal with a partnership) is an example. Vornado is a great example, but I think a lot of REITs ran up to a silly degree earlier this year because of a hunt for yield. Vornado's move towards $
120 was way overdone and $78-82 is more fair value.
As with healthcare in general, I think healthcare REITs will continue to do well and a number of names have been unfairly taken lower. I like Ventas (VTR), but HCP, HCN and Omega Healthcare are other options. I like Industrial/warehouse, although I don't think there's tons of names that grab my interest.
Triple Nets (WPC, O) have been taken down to points where they're compelling.
Certainly, in the shorter term there's a good deal that depends on the Fed rate hike and if the Fed does hike rates in September or December you may get a better opportunity for income names.
As for income names, Pipelines have been unfairly obliterated by the combo of interest rate fears and concerns over anything oil-related. Inter Pipeline (IPPLF) just reported a record quarter and is down considerably. Quality MLPs (EPD, MMP) are down enormously and I just don't think the state of the business for these companies suggest the declines that have been seen.
As for Ecolab, that's absolutely never going to be a home run. What I want is something that I think offers a high degree of consistency and whose business provides a need in both good times and bad. It's raised the dividend every year for 30+ years. The water aspect of Ecolab (ECL) is a core element of why I find it attractive, but the company works for me on a number of levels - as for hygiene and sanitation, hospitality/restaurant and other businesses have to maintain standards in good times and bad. (
http://www.ecolab.com/about/our-businesses.) Again, I'm not looking for a home run with Ecolab by any means, I'm looking for something that I think works for a number of themes and I think will be consistent and relatively boring over the long haul.