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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Bull is Closer to Its End
    Hi Old Joe,
    No assumptions are necessary. Jim Stack is directing his advice to all investors: to you, to me, to MFOers, and to his legion of loyal followers. Also when I said “our perceived positions” I meant a generic all of us investors without prejudice. I hope this clarifies your understanding uncertainty.
    I have no data to infer that the MFO readership is a representative cross-section of all individual investors. I suspect we have some unique characteristics that set us somewhat apart from the mob.
    S&P’s Sam Stovall has been a sector rotation proponent for about two decades. He wrote a popular book ”Sector Investing”, on the subject in 1996. Here are two Links that nicely summarize some of the sector rotation strategy in a graphic format.
    http://www.corycoviello.com/sector-rotation
    http://marketscalpel.com/approach/rotation/sectorRotationConventionGraphic.php
    The favored sectors from the early phase of the cycle and those from the later stage are distinct and clearly illustrated in the graphs. Sector rotational investing has a base of advocates. I do not know if any MFOers practice its discipline. I do not. My referring to it is my contribution to information diversity.
    Thank you for reading my post.
    Best Wishes.
  • Vulcan Fund Closure
    I was able to purchase VVPLX earlier this week for the required minimum in my non-taxable account with Scottrade for no trade fee with no hassle (already own VVPSX in the same account).
    I was not able to buy VVPLX through Wellstrade/Wells Fargo as it had a "hold/sell". Rep. kept stating the same thing. Fido had it listed available for $2,500.
    Incidentally, M* posters are clamoring for some type of dedicated thread for opening/closing/limited access to funds similar to that of MFO.
    http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/349533/3648101.aspx#3648101
    I want to give thanks to ViveBene for his post in the M* link above!
  • Vulcan Fund Closure
    @jeffdiver1,
    I think it is worth the effort. That fund is and has been a top notch fund for the sector. It should do very well over the long haul.
    Now the question might be, can you get the account open in time?
  • The Bull is Closer to Its End
    jejune |jiˈjoōn|
    adjective
    1) naive, simplistic, and superficial : their entirely predictable and usually jejune opinions.
  • M* Are You Devoting Too Much Time (And Money) To Niche Asset Classes?
    Niche.
    Hmmmm. Emerging markets contribute over 49% (and climbing) of global GDP but only 9% of global market cap, according to FTSE. The US contributes 19% (and falling) to GDP but 51% to global market cap.
    I suppose if you assume that the stock market is efficient and investors are rational, then you would indeed assume that we were worth every penny (and more) of what's invested in our market.
    David
  • The Bull is Closer to Its End
    Advice for Graduates: Buy Stocks
    Posted on May 27, 2015 by David Ott Acropolis is a fee-only wealth management firm,
    When I graduated from college 20 years ago, the world was a different place: only a few people had cell phones,the Internet wasn’t useful for anything, and nobody used email or instant messaging.
    I should note that I didn’t have to walk to school uphill both ways – that was before my time.
    A lot has happened since I graduated and started participating in financial markets:
    The good news, though, is that stocks represent ownership interests in operating businesses and as long as the system is based on capitalism and we have the rule of law, stocks should earn more than bonds or cash.
    But, who’s to say what the next 20 years will look like? Right now, non-US stocks look a lot cheaper than our markets, so it’s not hard to think that their returns will at least match ours or potentially be higher. That said, while US stocks will likely have lower returns over the next 10 years, no one can say much about the 10 years beyond that.
    So, young grasshoppers, buy stocks and do it in a diversified, global way.
    http://acrinv.com/advice-for-graduates-buy-stocks/
  • Gabelli Funds, Anyone?
    @BenWP;; May I suggest in the future you first look at the MFO Discussion Board, the number one source for mutual fund news and views.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/21346/super-mario-a-shareholder-advocate-in-word-but-not-in-practice/p1
  • The Bull is Closer to Its End
    Hi Guys,
    This morning, I’m in the process of tossing my notes from the 2015 Las Vegas MoneyShow. They have limited shelf life. During those visits, I always make a point to attend one of Jim Stack’s lectures. His talks always inform.
    Stack is cautiously optimistic and expects positive equity returns in the near-term. However, my notes say that he is assuming a more defensive posture. His current equity allocation is in the 75% range; the remainder is in cash equivalents. Typically, Stack commits north of 90% to equity holdings.
    He is currently getting mixed signals from his multi-dimensional market indicator array. I myself have little confidence in any single individual’s forecasting acumen. But, if the projections are made independently from each other, there is some merit to an assembly of the wisdom of crowd approach. Therefore, collecting predictions from a band of honest practitioners is not an entirely bad idea.
    I thought you guys might be interested in the whys and wherefores of Stack’s predictions and modeling. Here is a Link to a recent MarketWatch article that is based on his work:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bull-market-is-closer-to-the-end-than-investors-think-2015-03-16
    Be sure to click to page two which lists some of the reasons for Stack’s partial movement towards a more defensive asset allocation. Stack is never an all-in or all-out guy. He characteristically makes incremental changes as the signals turn either green or red.
    As I mentioned, Stack uses a variety of market direction Indicators. Here is a Link to a recent USA Today article titled “6 Signs the Aging Bull is in Late Innings”:
    http://americasmarkets.usatoday.com/2015/03/09/6-signs-the-aging-bull-is-in-late-innings/
    Stack’s analyses are always data dense and intensive. The 6 signs presented in the article are only a small portion of those that he monitors. If you like that, he just might be your man. Like all market gurus, he has both good and bad years. His record is that the good years greatly outnumber the bad years.
    If your interest is peaked you might also want to examine his Coppock Guide and his “Bellwether” indicator. He can swamp you with the scope of his many signal generators. I don’t know how or if he weights them. I also don’t know the super stocks that Stack incorporates into his Bellwether indicator. Lots to learn so good luck.
    Best Regards.
  • Gabelli Funds, Anyone?
    I'm seriously considering selling my stake in GGZ, Gabelli Global Small Cap CEF, after reading this article about how Mario and his kin have locked up ownership of Gamco and related enterprises. Sleaze, in a word.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/27/business/dealbook/a-shareholder-advocate-in-word-but-not-in-practice.html?_r=0
  • Hold On To 30-Year Treasuries Or Even Add Some More, Portfolio Manager Says
    The search for yield and credit quality (flight to safety) by world markets put downward pressure on the interest rate of US high quality bonds.
    This realty has to be weighed against the upward pressure the Fed will eventually put on interest rates. The Fed's mandate is not a global mandate, but markets are global.
    It makes it difficult for the Fed to raise rates while the world is still de-leveraging because if the Fed raises rates, the world markets will pile in on these high quality bonds that pay a relatively higher rate than other high quality global bonds.
    "Well boys just stick with me, we're in a tight spot" (Oh Brother Where Art Thou)

  • Ron Rowland's Leadership Strategy: 5/26/15
    FYI: The Market Leadership Strategy is designed to be a small portion of your overall investment portfolio. Our goal: to provide an easy-to-use investment approach with a potential for powerful returns.
    The Market Leadership Strategy indicates a potential to outperform the S&P 500 with less risk. See below how to implement this strategy.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investwithanedge.com/leadership-strategy
  • M* Are You Devoting Too Much Time (And Money) To Niche Asset Classes?
    FYI: Categories like small caps, emerging-markets stocks, and junk bonds capture a lot of attention, but they're small fry in the scheme of things.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=699197
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Buybacks Alone Can’t Drive Stocks Up Forever
    FYI: Several pillars of the six-year bull market have shown signs of weakness this year. One hasn’t: The amount of cash corporate America is returning to investors.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/05/28/morning-moneybeat-buybacks-alone-cant-drive-stocks-up-forever/tab/print/
    Current Futures:
    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Vulcan Fund Closure
    FYI: (In case you missed the E-Mail)
    Regards
    Ted
    Dear friends,
    One of the most frequent requests from readers has been to provide timely notification of events that cannot wait until our normal monthly update. That seems reasonable. Our plan is to provide updates to you folks but only if the information is timely and compelling.
    The imminent closure of Vulcan Value Partners (VVPLX) meets those criteria. In April, Vulcan announced the closure of VVPLX and all of their related strategies without advance notice. That’s an entirely prudent and shareholder-friendly decision, so we had no opportunity to warn you in advance of the closure. We reported in our May issue:
    Vulcan Value Partners (VVPLX) has closed to new investors. The firm closed its Small Cap strategy, including its small cap fund, in November of 2013, and closed its All Cap Program in early 2014. Vulcan closed, without advance notice, its Large Cap Programs – which include Large Cap, Focus and Focus Plus in late April. All five of Vulcan Value Partners’ investment strategies are ranked in the top 1% of their respective peer groups since inception.
    Presumably persons with an interest in the fund objected to the abrupt closure. Vulcan filed an amended statement with the SEC, announcing the fact that the fund would now be closed on June 1, 2015.
    Effective as of the close of business on June 1, 2015, the Fund will close to new investors, except as described below. This change will affect new investors seeking to purchase shares of the Fund either directly or through third party intermediaries. Existing shareholders of the Fund may continue to purchase additional shares of the Fund.
    Vulcan Value and its sibling Vulcan Value Partners Small Cap (VVPSX, closed) are both very good funds. Morningstar has awarded five stars to each fund. MFO’s rating system, which is considerably more sensitive to risk and rewards consistency, gives both of them our top honor, Great Owl funds, which means their risk-adjusted performance exceeds their peers’ in every applicable trailing period greater than 12 months. Since inception, VVPLX has outperformed its large-growth peer group by about 3% per year with substantially less risk.
    Our original 2011 profile of VVPSX quoted manager C.T. Fitzpatrick’s self-assessment: “We buy 900-pound gorillas priced like 98-pound weaklings. We have a five-year time horizon. Usually, our investments are out of favor for short-term reasons but their long-term fundamentals are sound.” During Mr. Fitzpatrick’s 17 year tenure with Southeastern Asset Management and the Longleaf Funds, his team was ranked in top 5% of money managers over five, ten, and twenty year periods according to Callan and Associates. He runs a compact portfolio of about 40 names, a third of which are mid-cap stocks. While they do not always hold their investments for five years (price appreciation sometimes requires them to move on), their standard is straightforward: if they aren’t comfortable with the idea of holding a stake in a firm for five years, they won’t buy it.
    Interested parties might want to (quickly) review the Vulcan Value Partners website for details.
    A second fund closure is also imminent: effective June 1, 2015, the T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund (PRHSX) will be closed to new investors. The $14 billion fund has substantially outperformed its peers under manager Taymour R. Tamaddon, who joined in February 2013: $10,000 entrusted to him on the day he took over the fund has grown to $21,600 while the average health care manager would have grown the investment to $20,000. The problem, of course, is that Mr. Tamaddon follows Kris Jenner’s phenomenal run as manager. With Mr. Jenner’s departure, Morningstar ceased analyst coverage of the fund. Nonetheless, it has had two-plus very solid years under Mr. T. and sports Price’s trademarks: low expenses, risk consciousness and consistently solid performance. As with Vulcan, you might want to do a quick review of the fund’s webpage.
    As ever,
    David
  • Hold On To 30-Year Treasuries Or Even Add Some More, Portfolio Manager Says
    FYI: Western Asset Management boosts holdings of longer-dated U.S. government bonds to levels not seen since the end of 2014.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150527/FREE/150529937?template=printart
  • Biotech Bubble Is Nowhere Near Popping
    The NASDAQ biotechnology index lost almost two-thirds of its value in the two years ended Sept. 30, 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The index currently trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 86 compared with 19 for the S&P 500.
  • Bruce Fund
    And, nooooo 12b-1 fee! Excuse me, I must stand and dance for a little while.
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show: Guest: Brian Peery, Co-Manager, Hennessy Funds
    Hennessey Fund's Concentrated Mid Cap 30 Fund (HFMDX) looks interesting. Wish the ER was lower.
    M* Comments about Mr. Peery:
    " Brian’s strength as a money manager lies in his commitment to quantitative, formula-based investing. Having done extensive back-testing of various investment formulas, Brian understands the importance of non-emotional investing and adhering to a disciplined, repeatable stock selection process. "
    Trailing Total returns are amazing for the fund:
    image
    HFMDX Concentrated Portfolio
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show: Guest: Brian Peery, Co-Manager, Hennessy Funds
    FYI: (Click On Download)
    http://www.moneylifeshow.com/highlights.asp
    Regards,
    Ted
    Tickers Discussed:
    JBLU, MHK, AAL, LUV; during "Hold It or Fold It:" AAPL, JCP, MSFT, BLL, T
    M* Hennessy Funds: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundfamily/hennessy/0C00001YV7/fund-list.aspx