David Snowball's August Commentary Hi, guys.
In response to DavFor's request, a bit of info on what's up behind the scenes.
It's been a busy year. The Core Four (Ed, Charles, Chip and me) met in Chicago last fall, after the Morningstar ETF Conference. There was a sense that I needed to try to create an enduring legal and financial structure for the Observer. To that point we had very little legal protection (and few legal resources) against the occasional angry and vindictive advisor; we're threatened occasionally and while truth and justice are defenses, they're not safeguards against bankruptcy. And we had no organizational foundation on which to build. It wast mostly me, guessing and hoping.
After talking with managers we respect and a local attorney, we decided to become an LLC. Shortly thereafter, we filed for and received intellectual property protection for our logo and name. Then a hang-up: I went to a non-profit law specialist to begin filing for the 501(c)(3) status and she informed me that LLCs cannot become tax-exempt. So then we filed to dissolve the LLC, incorporate in Iowa as a non-profit and file for 501(c)(3). She warned me that the IRS could take more than a year to adjudicate. Happily, it was closer to six weeks. Next, we need to hire an accountant who specializes in non-profits to work through the question of how we move resources from MFO's account into MFO, Inc's account. The existing account (and its attendant taxes) is legally mine because MFO was a sole proprietorship. Chip has an MBA and believes that I might be able to loan the money to MFO as start-up capital or make it a contribution. But once it's in the new MFO, it becomes a bit legally constrained.
What's next? Ohhh ... we need to recruit one to three additional members to MFO's board of directors. Chip and I sit on the board, but we need folks with broader expertise and a better understanding of the financial services and/or non-profit organization words. We've had several nominees who feel, uhh, distinctly higher on the food chain than me. Those discussions are commencing. We need to decide what, if anything, might be offered to MFO contributors. My bottom line is that nothing we do now gets taken away from folks, it remains free and non-commercial. But we might offer access to Charles's fund screener or some other editorial service. The data contracts, though, are really expensive by our standards, even after considerable negotiation. So I want to be sure we're acting sensibly before mortgaging anything.
And, oh yeah, I start back to full-time teaching and administering my academic department soon; we're searching for two new faculty and I've been asked by my president to help develop a plan to recruit and support transfer students to the college. Had I mentioned trying to finish the September issue several days early so I can drive to Cincinnati and meet the folks at the Ultimus Fund Services client conference (I'm trying to do networking for us)?
For what interest all that holds,
David
ETAGX - Eventide Gilead
For taxable Accounts: Looking for Funds with good return after tax. Huh?
Vanguard shows Exxon as the 2nd largest holding.
It tries to track the Russell
1000 while reducing taxes by harvesting losses, keeping turnover low, and incorporating a bias away from high dividend stocks. That bias doesn't eliminate dividend paying stocks so much as affect their weighting.
You can see this by comparing the fund's top ten holdings (on the
Vanguard fund page) with the
top ten stocks in the Russell 1000 index. The fund holds the top nine stocks in the index, and has added Google (as its 4th largest position) to round out its ten largest holdings. Google pays no dividends (
yet).
ETAGX - Eventide Gilead Hadn't seen this (generally old) thread before. Some quick observations:
- There's a real Eventide healthcare fund: ETNHX (for scott, Kevin)
- M* posted returns ignore the load (though the star ratings use load-adjusted performance). For 20
14, M* reports ETAGX returned
17.84%;; the
semi-annual report says that for 20
14 ETAGX returned
17.85% (rounding error?), and
11.05% after including the load.
- Regarding size/ER - There are 2
12 mid cap growth funds. ETAGX, with a size of $2.
1B is larger than all but 39 of them. I don't expect a significant decrease in its ER.
There are 66 smaller MCG funds with A shares. Of these, 54 have lower ERs.
There are 23 larger MCG funds with A shares. Of these, only
1 (KAUAX) costs more.
For taxable Accounts: Looking for Funds with good return after tax. The total stock market funds are generally tax efficient.ETFs are often tax efficient Vanguard has tax managed funds. I like Tax manged capital appreciation . Owned it 20 years with NO capital gain distributions It invests in roughly the largest 10000 growth stocks (so no Exxon for example
David Snowball's August Commentary >> ... do not put at risk more than you can afford to lose without impacting your standard of living.
This sort of thing puzzles me greatly. How to invest then? If 'lose' means go to zero, then most of us would be doing equities around the edges, with 75% or whatever in cash or individual bonds.
If lose means something else, as surely it must, then what?
I am finding it ultimately meaningless, in other words, no matter what math examples I throw at it. But this is Studzinski.
I also know it's illegit ever to say 'it's different this time', but if something like 1987 (a meaningless blip in the longer term anyway) happened today, however it happened, I bet the amount of quick reactive buying, both algorithmic-automatic and manual-opportunistic, would be a headspinning sight.
David Snowball's August Commentary Hi Guys,
Each and every month, Professor David Snowball and his talented team do a superior job of keeping us informed, and making us better investors. This month’s Commentary is no exception.
They give us the tools, but it’s up to us to get the job done.
Wait! That sounds a bit too familiar. That’s because it is. I paraphrased Winston Churchill’s
194
1 "Give us the tools, and we will finish the Job" speech. It’s short and famous so here it is:

Enjoy. I also like the BBC video that featured Churchill in its Secrets of Leadership series. Here is the Link to this excellent piece of history:

As investors we can learn from Churchill’s checkered career. He survived early failures to be a decisive player in WWII decision making. Investing has many parallels given its uncertainties and critical tradeoffs. The ability and resolve to “Staying the Course” is a winning strategy.
Thank you David and loyal team members.
Best Regards.
David Snowball's August Commentary Is it really the year 2105? Did we really jump 90 years overnight? :)
Thanks for the keen eyes!
That's my fault. I've fixed the title, but can't change the link, now. *sigh*
David Snowball's August Commentary Is it really the year 2105? Did we really jump 90 years overnight? :)
Gold: Is It Really Likely To Hit $5,000 An Ounce? I am confident gold will hit 5k an oz though I do not expect to be alive when that happens. Hopefully I will be around for gold at 2k which may happen within 8-10 years. This is NOT a prediction. I am actually planning to buy gold at $1050 and then average down bu not up from that level.Reason for 1050 is the large number who will buy at 1000.
How To Play International Small Caps: Lewis Braham Fidelity offers lots of A shares load-waived & NTF, including OSMAX. The ones that are LW & NTF are shown as such right below the name of the fund, at the top of the fund page,
e.g., here.
A Pharma ETF Focused On Quality, Fast-Growing Stocks I am very pleased to have owned PJP since early 2013 as 1/3 of my healthcare allocation in portfolio. I have one pure biotech fund FBTIX and a broad base healthcare fund PHSZX that owns biotech, medical devices, pharma and various companies that support the industry. These funds do not have large pharma as their main focus, so it supplies aniche that these other funds dont focus on as much. It would be fine to have one fund such as fidelity or vanguard healthcare as their hc choices, I decided to divide my allocation a bit differently.
gold on sale The math:
You could have purchased gold for around $
150 an ounce during the
1975-
1977 period (after which the price rose sharply). Today's price is close to $
1100. Over a 40 year period (
1975-present) that equates to around a 5% annually compounded return.*
Historical gold prices
http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdfIt would have been better to purchase gold prior to
1975 when the price (artificially set) remained around $35 an ounce for many years. Unfortunately, U.S. law prohibited private citizens from owning gold except in smaller quantities in the form of jewelry.
The Gold Reserve Act (
1934)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act---
*(interest compounded yearly - added at the end of each year)
Year Year Interest Total Interest Balance
1 $7.50 $7.50 $
157.50
2 $7.88 $
15.38 $
165.38
3 $8.27 $23.64 $
173.64
4 $8.68 $32.33 $
182.33
5 $9.
12 $4
1.44 $
19
1.44
6 $9.57 $5
1.0
1 $20
1.0
17 $
10.05 $6
1.07 $2
11.07
8 $
10.55 $7
1.62 $22
1.62
9 $
11.08 $82.70 $232.70
10 $
11.63 $94.33 $244.33
11 $
12.22 $
106.55 $256.55
12 $
12.83 $
119.38 $269.38
13 $
13.47 $
132.85 $282.85
14 $
14.
14 $
146.99 $296.99
15 $
14.85 $
16
1.84 $3
11.84
16 $
15.59 $
177.43 $327.43
17 $
16.37 $
193.80 $343.80
18 $
17.
19 $2
10.99 $360.99
19 $
18.05 $229.04 $379.04
20 $
18.95 $247.99 $397.99
2
1 $
19.90 $267.89 $4
17.89
22 $20.89 $288.79 $438.79
23 $2
1.94 $3
10.73 $460.73
24 $23.04 $333.76 $483.76
25 $24.
19 $357.95 $507.95
26 $25.40 $383.35 $533.35
27 $26.67 $4
10.02 $560.02
28 $28.00 $438.02 $588.02
29 $29.40 $467.42 $6
17.42
30 $30.87 $498.29 $648.29
3
1 $32.4
1 $530.7
1 $680.7
132 $34.04 $564.74 $7
14.74
33 $35.74 $600.48 $750.48
34 $37.52 $638.00 $788.00
35 $39.40 $677.40 $827.40
36 $4
1.37 $7
18.77 $868.77
37 $43.44 $762.2
1 $9
12.2
138 $45.6
1 $807.82 $957.82
39 $47.89 $855.7
1 $
1,005.7
140 $50.29 $906.00 $
1,056.00
Standard CalculationBase amount: $
150.00
Interest Rate: 5%
Effective Annual Rate: 5%
Calculation period: 40 years
From "The Calculator Site"
http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/calculators/compoundinterestcalculator.php