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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Energy Sector Breaks To New Lows
    @bee I think I'd like a little more "downside worked into the price," :) but definitely a sector to be moved to the top of the Watch List. By year's end, should have a better lay of the land.
    image
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2015/07/energy-resumes-downtrend.html
  • MFO Fund Ratings Posted - Through 2nd Quarter 2015
    @MFO Members: You better believe it take a lot of work to maintain MFO as the #1 Mutual Fund Website. Yet, for their own selfish interests a tiny few think this is a social site where anything goes including tabloid material, politics, religion, or whatever. That just drives away folks who come here for mutual fund news, commentary, and fund views.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Gross' Fund At Janus Suffers Worst Monthly Redemptions Since October
    Good point. I hadn't noticed that. Now that you mention it, I see that while most papers report things like Dow's worst day, biggest loss, etc., you do occasionally see "worst loss", e.g.:
    Marketwatch: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst one-day point drop ..."
    USA Today
    : "The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6% to 17,718.54 in posting its worst point loss ..."
    Morningstar: "The Nikkei ended down 3.1% at 19737.64 for its wost decline in percentage terms ..."
  • MFO Fund Ratings Posted - Through 2nd Quarter 2015
    Our risk and return performance metrics through quarter ending June 2015 have been posted to the Search Tools, including updates to Three Alarm, Honor Roll, and Great Owl funds, and well as Dashboard of all funds profiled.
  • Gross' Fund At Janus Suffers Worst Monthly Redemptions Since October
    The $272M bond fund mentioned in the article that followed Gross to Janus (a UK fund), effective July 6th:
    Old Mutual Total Return (USD) Bond Fund
    http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F0GBR04N74
  • Gross' Fund At Janus Suffers Worst Monthly Redemptions Since October
    FYI: The Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund suffered its worst monthly redemptions since bond legend Bill Gross started managing it in October.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150709/FREE/150709902?template=printart
  • Energy Sector Breaks To New Lows
    Big bounce today in commodities, but still on life-support. Like the "insurance" analogy bee made. Iron ore leaped nearly 10% in a single day.
    Have considered "re-converting" the Roth conversion of a commodities fund in January. Off around 7% since the conversion date. Looks like I'd have until October to make such a move. But my instincts tell me to hang tough. I like that I've already burned-up more than 6 months of the 5-year holding period too.
    FWIW
  • Energy Sector Breaks To New Lows
    Energy makes up about 8% of the S&P 500 Index. I am currently overweight the energy sector by about 1% as I write by holding a little better than 9% in the sector. At this time, I don't plan to add more. However, the fund mangers of the funds that I own, just might. Hopefully, it will gain some upward movement soon.
  • Energy Sector Breaks To New Lows
    I note that within the MAPOX portfolio, XOM holds the 5th-largest position, as per Morningstar. Over 2% of the portfolio. And Morningstar gives the company 4 stars, and good marks and a rather bright outlook, despite some well-known headwinds for the industry, generally:
    "The company is the world's largest refiner and one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals." But look at this:
    http://www.morningstar.com/news/AscPress/urn:publicid:ap.org:b9b73c6eca0841e2bb2abf4868e4fa75/Environmental-groups-Lesniak-to-argue-against-Exxon-deal.html
    Anyone know where we are with this thing?
  • Female Mutual Fund Manager Study
    Hi Guys,
    In a recent post, MFO members anecdotally reported on favorite female mutual fund managers. Many successful female mutual fund managers were listed on this honor roll.
    In one of my contributions to that exchange, I naively asked the question if any studies exist that compare the overall performance of female managers to their equivalent male counterparts? I wondered if “there just might be a pony there”?
    That’s a dumb question since the financial world is inundated with data and analyses. The obvious answer is a firm “Yes”. It just required a very easy web search which I finally did.
    I discovered a nice paper by two Professors titled “Is Manager Gender Important in the Performance of Mutual Funds?”. Here is the Link to their paper:
    http://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1007&context=acct_pubs&sei-redir=1&referer=http://www.google.com/search?q=is+manager+gender+important+in+performance+of+mutual+funds+welch&hl=en&biw=&bih=&gbv=2&oq=is+manager+gender+important+in+performance+of+mutual+funds+welch&gs_l=heirloom-serp.3...19847.26172.0.28485.6.2.0.4.0.0.203.328.0j1j1.2.0....0...1ac.1.34.heirloom-serp..5.1.199.POIkJIO7yeM#search="manager gender important performance mutual funds welch"
    The Link is more ominous than the paper itself, although the study does do some heavyweight, multifactor curve fitting to data culled from Morningstar reports. However, both the Introduction and the Conclusions sections of the report are easy going.
    Here is the paper’s Abstract:
    “We investigate whether there are differences in characteristics and performance of mutual funds caused by the manager’s gender. Through examining a large sample of U.S. domestic equity mutual fund, we find some evidence that suggests female managers have a lower risk tolerance than males. This leads to the observation that females tend to hold a higher total number of assets (stocks) and fewer assets in their top 10 holdings than do male managers. We then analyze performance within funds over time in order to evaluate the impact of changes in management’s gender composition on funds’ performance. We find some evidence that the percentage of female managers managing a fund is negatively related to the fund’s performance over time.”
    Of the 2,217 mutual funds that satisfied the studies selection criteria, about 10.5% were managed by females. That’s a respectable sample size. It was further sorted into meaningful sub-groups by the researchers to explore special purposes like does performance change when management changes gender?
    Although in the general population females tend to be more conservative investors, and most of the professional money managers exhibited these same conservative characteristics, the female mutual fund mangers also demonstrated some aggressive investment features like holding high P/E stocks. It seems as if the schooling, the training, and the experience somewhat dissipated the generic female predisposition.
    On a grand scale, gender performance differences are muted and illusive.
    My takeaway from this brief literature review is that there is no easily identified pony there. If there were, mutual fund companies would be frantically hiring females to manage their funds, and investors would be flocking to buy them. Like many investment options, it appears to be a wash with noteworthy exceptions. There are terrific female mutual fund managers; the task is to find them.
    Based on our earlier submittals, MFOers have already done some of this homework. I will not especially search for female managers, and I will not exclude them either. I'm gender neutral with respect to mutual fund management.
    Best Regards.
  • sp fall 20% q4??
    "There is no accounting beyond this point." Actually, "this point" was the tulip Mania bubble in 1636. Everything since then is just the wind-down, which will itself go on for a while longer. Folks just haven't realized it yet, but they will, any time now.
  • sp fall 20% q4??
    I predict October 15, 2015. Another beginning of the end !
    Okay (shrugs)
  • sp fall 20% q4??
    I predict October 15, 2015. Another beginning of the end !
  • sp fall 20% q4??
    I like Faber and find him highly amusing (who else has responded to the question on CNBC of how you should allocate assets with "it depends on how many girlfriends you have"?)
    I hope that there is not another 2008.
    That said, this is my honest view:
    That if it looks like we may be heading in that direction, the Fed will bail out Radio Shack (after the fact), Shake Shack and even Shaq.
    They will try every voodoo economic BS tactic left. You will see QE4, you will see NIRP. Heck, a ban on physical cash so that no one can escape NIRP wouldn't surprise me. Every trick in the book will be used - you think that what's going on in Shanghai in terms of banning short selling and other "rules" can't be put into place here, at least to some degree?
    They will bail out, print and nationalize like there's no tomorrow - if it comes to that, because the alternative if we have another 2008 and go back to square one is this:
    All of the attitude by the Fed of "don't audit us, don't question us and no we aren't going to respond to an investigation about the Fed leaking information" will be ignored in a bleeping hurry.
    If we have had QE1, 2 and 3 and operation twist and all other manner of financial engineering BS and we find ourselves back at square one after another 2008-style situation, Janet and company will have a lot of 'splaining to do (and they don't seem fond of that) because the anger will be immense and Congress will ab-so-lutely point the finger at them.
    You think people were mad at Wall Street after 2008? LOL, at the very least twice as bad if it happens again.
    If we have another 2008, in some ways it'll be game over. There will be tumbleweeds hosting CNBC because no one will be watching. The rejection of stocks by the public will be extraordinary - you're not going to get anyone back in and probably for years. The Fed will be too busy in hearings to do much. Attempts to push the public back into risk assets after that will be likely met with legitimate anger (or at least a collective middle finger.)
    So yeah, I believe that there is a sense of "reflate or bust" desperation with governments around the world who don't want another 2008 because of all of the many things that would imply.
    Perhaps I'll be wrong but I continue to fear that this time around if there's a crisis you will want to own assets instead of sitting in cash or bonds.
    We'll see.
    ---
    Someone posted this at ZH in the comments section years ago and I don't disagree with the gist of it, although I'm not as negative and think the how/why (I don't think they'd print like there's no tomorrow because this is the end, but because they believe another 2008 would be some degree of "game over") is different. I don't think another 2008 would be "the end", but I perhaps can see where it would be the end of the global economy as we know it today. Perhaps this is "the ultimate bubble" for use of a better term and what we look like as a global economy on the other side of it will be very different.
    "Hope you didn't put much money on that bet, Dawg. These fuckers are going to print hard enough to wake the dead. They'll print like mo'fos, print like mad men, print like fly pimps. Print until their eyes bleed.
    They will print via the swaps, via bank bailouts and mergers, via fixed Treasury yields, via real honest-to-God negative interest rates, via loans to banks on no collateral, via payroll tax reductions, and in the end via actual fiat paper instruments which they might very well drop in bails from actual mutherfucking helicopters.
    They will not give two figs what anyone thinks.
    Here is why.
    Because this is the Goddamned end of it my friend. There is no accounting beyond this point. There will be no history of it. No one to take notes of rates of exchange, or of the graft and violence, nobody to worry about the deficit or the GDP or the national debt of any nation large or small under the blazing Goddamned sun.
    End. Of. It. Does anyone bitch about how Rome totally debased their coinage at the end? Hell no. But whoever did it had enough to hand and grabbed some land with a nice vineyard and sat back and waited for the Middle Ages to start 700 years further on.
    And that's what a singularity is about. Anything that passes through is striped of all meaning. Nothing we think is important now will remain so beyond the event horizon. Nobody will remember, nobody will write about it, nobody will be held to any standard. Ever for ever."
  • USAA Mid - Summer Nights Dream (Outlook) for the Markets / Funds
    USAA has a News Link. Here's their most recent investment outlook:
    "Oil fetches just half the price as it did this time last year, and the dollar has
    packed on some muscle. Both of those trends stand to have positive long-term implications for Americans.
    But so far this year, the downside (spending cuts in the oil patch and lower revenue in dollar terms for U.S.
    multinationals) has outweighed the upside."
    Report:
    Investment_Outlook_Mid_Year
    News Link:
    Market-Commentary
  • Energy Sector Breaks To New Lows
    What is interesting is a comparison of the resource (Oil, Natural Gas) and the Energy Service companies (Drillers, shippers, refineries, Midstreams, chemical, etc.).
    Low energy prices are like low interest rates for some companies because it lowers their input costs.
    Also, frackers are stuck between a fracked rock and a hard place. "Refracking" will be a term we hear being mentioned going forward. It happens when a well is left idle and needs to be reopened. What some "refracked" wells are enjoying is an increase in previous output by as much as an additional 30%.
    Storage (contango) will also be a goal for some energy producers.
    The Energy sector (VDE, XLE) is one of my bottom fishes:
    bottom-fishing-for-funds-and-etfs
    Ticker-------Off 52 wk Low---Off 52 wk high
    XLE, VDE.....1.42%....................28% - Energy
    FCX.............2.87%....................63% - Natural Gas
    USO.............11.4%...................55% - US Oil Producers
    UNG.............5.06%...................46% - Natural Gas
    And here's commodities:
    GCC............1.8%......................23% - Commodities
    Might be a good time to dca (dollar cost average) into these inflation fighting insurance policies. Especially those that have most of their downside worked into the price and still pay a dividend.
    In my opinion, "cheap" dividend paying stocks can act like bonds.
    Finally,
    "A strong dollar also has a negative impact on the oil price, which rebounded this spring as the dollar went
    through a period of temporary weakness. Brazil and Russia, both major oil exporters, would go through
    another round of pain if oil heads back down. Manufacturing-focused countries in East Asia, among them
    South Korea and Taiwan, would likely benefit from cheaper energy."
    Source:
    USAA Investment_Outlook_Mid_Year
  • U.S. Mutual Funds Not Bailing On China Stocks Yet
    FYI: Some U.S. investors say China's efforts to prop up its stock market had the opposite effect, though the sell-off now offers buying opportunities at what they say are panic-driven prices.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/09/us-china-markets-insight-idUSKCN0PJ0F520150709