Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I established a full position in DODIX on Friday using funds from a MM. Original plans were to purchase an allocation fund, but equities appear to be just too pricey at the moment, even though the outperformance is uneven in nature. This takes the fixed income proportion to 15%.
  • Nvidia “Leapfrogs” Apple in Value
    In think what @baseball_fan is asking is if there is a potential fraud involved in Nvidia's revenue recognition? I would venture to guess there is probably some creativity involved (let us say, no more than 5% of the revenue) but within the bounds of GAAP / SEC's acceptable thresholds. Any one that is worried about Nvidia's Rev Rec issues instead should look at its cash flows. If you want a professional opinion on Nvidia's Rev Rec, send @Stillers, the accounting auditor professional in this forum, a private message. When Nvidia is being fed the revenue, I do not think they will go out of their way to be creative with Rev Rec.
    @BaluBalu, thanks for the vote of confidence but not my area of expertise so a PM to me would be an easy way to waste time!
    This SA article though may help understanding the issue:
    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/50662133-james-foord/5924335-nvda-fraud-revenue-misrepresentation-and-insider-selling
  • WSJ on pensions and PE
    What does it matter guys if one has a gov't pension?
    Next door neighbor retired grade school teacher..wonderful and spunky gal...her deal is her deal, props to her, she was completely dedicated to educating the youngsters. There is no crying in baseball..
    However, bullet proof. Guaranteed payout by state law. No matter if stock market draws down by over 50% ...she is going to get her monthly payment no matter what.
    Tax payers on the hook for all of it. Period.
    Folks bailing out of state in droves, soon as the kids get out of high school and if their job is portable/remote and/or retirement...adios.
    Property taxes went up for most at least +20%, many +25-30%...
    It's all a Ponzi, all based on bullshit numbers....what is really behind the curtain, don't look, you might not like what you see.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    Effective date appears to be today, June 15.
    Well, not as of 10:15AM EDT. I tried.
    Click on the "Cash" link in your CMA account (positions page); you'll see a Change Core Position button appear. Unfortunately, clicking on that pops up a page that still reads: "There are no new core positions to select."
    FWIW, here's the announcement as it appears on March Fidelity statements:
    Please note that on or around June 15, 2024, you'll have the option to elect Fidelity(R) Government Money Market Fund (SPAXX) as your core sweep investment vehicle. You will not need to take any action if you wish to retain the Bank Sweep as your core position. For additional information on your core position options, including the current yields on the Bank Sweep and money market funds, please visit Fidelity.com/spend-save/fidelity-cash-management-account/overview and FundResearch.Fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/31617H102.
  • Recently, you're making some $ in your IG bond holdings.....
    Ya'll holding IG bond funds/etf's or bonds within your other mixed allocation funds have made some decent gains in the past two weeks; you know, lower yields = higher prices.
    Treasury yields since April 5. Will the downward trend continue? I don't have that answer, only a chart.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    @msf said, ”Regarding Fidelity cash management - it will shortly be adding SPAXX (current SEC yield is 4.97%) as a core account option to its CMA account. Currently you're limited to a bank sweep paying 2.69% APR (2.72% APY)”. Elsewhere, @msf provided a link to Fido’s announcement. Effective date appears to be today, June 15.
    Anybody know if the existing paper checks for the cash management account will need to be reissued? Or will the same ones continue work even after we change the CMA default investment to SPAXX?
    FWIW - I write about 5 a year. Typically reserved for very large expenditures.
  • Curious how your holdings break down into type? Stocks / CEFs / ETFs / Mutual funds, CDs, etc
    We have been retired 12 years with the anniversary date in June. We use what I refer to as 5-yr, Model Retirement Portfolios (MRP). We are thusly two years into our 3rd, 5-yr Model. Each has been significantly different in composition.
    The FED started raising interest rates in June 2022 as we were creating our current 5-yr MRP for 06/2022-06/2027. We projected at that time that before long, CP CD interest rates would be over our 4% threshold for FI investments.
    So we did two major structural changes starting around that time,
    (1) split our total portfolio into two distinct portfolios and
    (2) jettisoned ALL dedicated bond funds while significantly reducing bond holdings.
    So currently we have a Market Portfolio (MP) and a 5-yr, CP CD Ladder Portfolio. Total port is 98 IRA/2 Txbl. We haven't paid any FIT/SIT since 2012 and don't plan to do so for about 5 more years. The two ports are similar in size, with the latter port designated as our LTC self-funding. It currently has an APY just over 5%.
    The MP is about as basic and straight forward as they come:
    12 OEFs with 10 Core and 2 Explore OEFs, and occasional trading of Blue Chip, individual stocks like NVDA and GOOGL.
    The MP is:
    Stocks/Bonds/Cash: 88/12/Nil
    Domestic/Foreign: 90/10
    Technology Allocation: 36
    MAG 7 Allocation: 29
    LC/MC/SC: 74/20/6
    V/B/G: 16/34/50
    The 12 OEFs are:
    3 Domestic Stock Index
    1 Domestic Sector
    2 Domestic LCG
    1 Domestic LC Value
    1 Domestic SCG
    1 Global LCG
    1 Foreign LCG
    2 Moderate Allocation (which provide our ONLY bond allocation)
    2024 YTD TR of the MP is, well, um, never mind. That was not asked for by the OP and if given may very well be deemed bragging by my detractors.
  • MRFOX
    M* shows MRFOX has zero turnover (8/31/2023) ... Not sure what the current MRFOX turnover is. I was hoping with heavy inflows they would be able to buy new or more promising investments.
    Four of the fund's 19 holdings (see below) were new positions as of the turnover reporting date. Turnover is the lesser of percentage bought (in dollars, not positions) and percentage sold. Apparently the fund didn't sell shares of any holdings in the year ending 8/31/23 but added new holdings (likely adding to existing holdings as well).
    https://www.morningstar.com/investing-definitions/turnover-ratio
    But when I look at holdings at M*, M* says of the 18 holdings 7 are three star (means fairly valued) and rest are two star or one star (means overvalued). No 4 or 5 star holdings.
    Those are star ratings today of equities that the fund held four months ago. How promising were those stocks when that last portfolio snapshot was taken? Let alone how promising they were last August when the fund added four stocks.
    In the six months between Aug 2023 and Feb 2024 the fund liquidated one position. A naive calculation would suggest a turnover ratio of 5.3% (1 stock out of 19 sold). The actual dollar weighted turnover (including any sales of shares in the other 18 companies) came to 7% (not annualized). That seems more typical of the fund, which had turnover ratios of 24%, 14%, and 14% for FYs 2021, 2020, and 2019.
    Semiannual report, Feb 29, 2024
    Annual report, Aug 31, 2023
  • MRFOX
    @Baseball_Fan,
    Concentrated funds are OK as long as the managers are not averse to portfolio turnover. M* shows MRFOX has zero turnover (8/31/2023) and AKREX at 2% turnover. Not sure what the current MRFOX turnover is. I was hoping with heavy inflows they also would be able to buy new or more promising investments. But when I look at holdings at M*, as of Feb 29, of the 18 holdings 7 are three star (means fairly valued) and rest are two star or one star (means overvalued). No 4 or 5 star holdings (nothing in its holdings was undervalued). M* also says Portfolio P/E was 20, the same as for SPHQ as of that date (I estimated working backwards).
    Based on https://marshfieldfunds.com/
    As of the end of Q1, the fund held 20% in cash. The fund probably received another 10% cash in inflows since Q1. The fund strategy says, "The cash position will, on average, be in the range of 0-25% of the portfolio and will be an output of the Adviser’s buy and sell decisions, not a tactical maneuver."
    The fund commentary indicates the fund was not static and had turnover during the quarter.
    "The broad market today seems to be hosting a tent revival of sorts, with tech stocks as the talismanic centerpiece. But this too offers us an opportunity: instead of bemoaning the exorbitant price of stocks, we rejoice in our ability, as just noted, to sell those holdings that are hitting highs we believe are unlikely to be sustained or surpassed, at least in the medium term. Markets like this, whether held aloft by hope, euphoria, or (ir)rational exuberance, do tend to return to earth at some point. If opportunity is knocking today, we’ll answer the door with a smile. What we won’t do is join the pilgrimage to the top of the cliff. But by this point, we assume we’re preaching to the choir."
    During April, the fund lost 4% while SPY lost about 6% but I guess that was not good enough for the fund to put some of its cash to work. I am guessing the fund can return zero and underperform until the current bull market tapers out or there is a material correction in the market. I guess, be prepared to test your patience for another 5 months. The Q2 portfolio and commentary may not be available timely (until much after the market conditions may have changed) to be highly relevant. The difficulty with the fund is lack of contemporaneous information but they do not have to worry about such tasks when the inflows are unrelenting.
    "The Fund is premised on the belief that in order to outperform the market, an investment strategy needs to be different from the market in as many ways as possible that add value on a risk-adjusted basis." [Bold added] Do not say you were not forewarned!
    The problem with AKREX is that once Chuck left, the remaining team is probably just sitting on the existing portfolio clueless and watching heavy outflows. But I remember even when Chuck was around the fund had very low turnover, which is one of the reasons why I did not invest in AKREX even during its hay days.
    Morale of these funds is that I think investors (unlike you) that have inertia in getting out of underperforming investments, should not invest in specialist funds like this. Sticking with
  • Stashing cash, Summer 2024
    FD,
    When you say "99+% in the market", what does this mean?
    Are you referring to equity markets, fixed-income markets, or other markets?
    Just curious...
    Thanks!

    Easy answer.
    First you tell me your breakdown of stocks, bonds, cash.
    Second, let me know what is your name on BB.
    That would put us on an equal base.
    Thanks
    I performed a "quick and dirty" portfolio check on 05/17/24.
    Not much has changed since then.
    My approximate asset allocations are listed below.
    US Stock - 40.55%
    Bonds & Cash - 33.02%
    Foreign Stock - 26.44%
  • Curious how your holdings break down into type? Stocks / CEFs / ETFs / Mutual funds, CDs, etc
    Mutual funds - 5
    ETFs - 3
    CITs - 1, ~20% of portfolio
    Stocks - 1, ~3% of portfolio
    TIPS, ~4% of portfolio, purchased via Treasury auction
    Asset allocation as of 05/17/24:
    US Stocks - 40.55%
    Bonds & Cash - 33.02%
    Foreign Stocks - 26.44%
  • Curious how your holdings break down into type? Stocks / CEFs / ETFs / Mutual funds, CDs, etc
    6.5 % 4 soon to be 3 mutual funds
    93.5% cash, tbills large majority under 2 year majority, some CDs
    3 single family homes, two different states, one being a rental property
    Will maybe be purchasing WMT Walmart, Chubb CB, CASY Casey and an infrastructure stock soon... maybe as a small percentage of portfolio
    Zero debt
    Works for me, it's understood that it's risky to a degree by being extremely conservative. Don't care, don't trust the casino
    No debt, still working, sleep well at night
    Baseball fan
  • MRFOX
    For the past three mo, MRFOX returned 0 to negative while SPY returned 5.5%. We all know how much MMs returned during that time.
  • PRWCX performance YTD
    Stockcharts link?
    An unadjusted stock price is lower - it drops every time a dividend is paid. Look at Yahoo's historical price table for AAPL. On Feb 9, the closing price went up 53¢ (from $188.32 to $188.85) due to market fluctuation. The adjusted value went up 77¢ (from $188.08 to $188.85); the additional 24¢ was due to the 24¢ dividend.
    It's easier to see the effect visually with a security that has a relatively steady value (little noise from market fluctuations) and fairly consistent periodic distributions. Something like a bond fund that declares and pays monthly.
    Something like RPHIX. The sawtooth pattern (rising price until div, then back down to base; rinse, repeat) is obvious in the price chart. The adjusted div value rises fairly smoothly and linearly.
    StockCharts graph of RPHIX
  • End of an era? Embossed credit cards.
    My peeve, they put the "tap" icon in one place but you actually have to tap someplace else on the machine.
    Yup. Geniuses in charge. We are surrounded by bogus-brains.
  • Curious how your holdings break down into type? Stocks / CEFs / ETFs / Mutual funds, CDs, etc
    -5 single stocks. Two are much bigger than the others. 13% of total.
    -Junk bond ETF is still miniscule. Less than 1%.
    -5 mutual funds, 81% of total.
    -5% "cash" chosen by both myself and fund managers.
    53 stocks
    41 bonds, mostly still junk. My junk yields are quite productive:
    a) 7.09%
    b) 7.51%
    c) 7.17%
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Holding. Waiting for a further drop, to buy anything. SP500 Record? Not seeing it in my stuff. Doggy poopies. BHB div. today. Nice. Next divvy due is in July: BCE.
  • Curious how your holdings break down into type? Stocks / CEFs / ETFs / Mutual funds, CDs, etc
    Myself … 9 Mutual Funds, 1 CEF, 1 ETF, 1 Stock
    The CEF represents 10%. The ETF and stock each count for 5% of portfolio.
    Here’s how the mutual funds break down …
    - Roth IRA 6
    - Traditional IRA 1
    - TOD (taxable account) 1
    - Money market funds (combined) 1
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    They took nearly 1.5 yrs to move client assets in stages. The final May 13 move involved only 10% of accounts. (After my account moved, the Schwab Rep put me on hold and accessed my TD account.)