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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • About the 4% rule
    Guys, my question is only WHERE low_tech is going to move his money when mm drops below 4.5% !
    Nothing to do w 4% swd, which has always been low imo.
    My retirement portfolio is kicking off over 6%, most of which gets reinvested into my taxable account -- including all the MM interest.
    I moved part of my SCHD holdings into a MM a few months ago -- it pays more interest than SCHD and the principle is now stable. Why get 3.5% with a fluctuating share price when you can get 5% with a stable share price? I know I'm forfeiting growth but that's okay for now. I have other stock holdings.
  • Reality check
    Thanks @Mark
    My sense has been that there’s still some “reasonable” value out there if you get away from the big hitters like the ones you cited. A “sense” isn’t the same as a “fact” and I could be wrong. Nor would I want to direct anyone to specific areas I think might still hold value. Another thing … If the heavy hitters take a tumble, they’d probably bring down a lot of other stuff even if it’s reasonably priced.
    I posted last night how NVDIA has zoomed 150% (or some crazy number) YTD and has passed Apple now in value! Link
  • Lazard Managed Equity Volatility Portfolio will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874964/000093041324001838/c109092_497.htm
    497 1 c109092_497.htm
    THE LAZARD FUNDS, INC.
    Lazard Managed Equity Volatility Portfolio
    Supplement to Current Summary Prospectus and Prospectus
    The Board of Directors of The Lazard Funds, Inc. (the “Fund”) has approved the liquidation of Lazard Managed Equity Volatility Portfolio (the “Portfolio”).
    No further investments are being accepted into the Portfolio, except for investments by certain brokers or other financial intermediaries or employee benefit or retirement plans (acting on behalf of their clients or participants) with pre-existing investments in the Portfolio pursuant to an agreement or other arrangement with the Fund, the Distributor or another agent of the Fund regarding Portfolio investments. Promptly upon completion of liquidation of the Portfolio’s investments, the Portfolio will redeem all its outstanding shares by distribution of its assets to shareholders in amounts equal to the net asset value of each shareholder’s Portfolio investment. It is anticipated that the Portfolio’s assets will be distributed to shareholders on or about August 5, 2024.
    Prior to the liquidation of the Portfolio, depending on the arrangements of any broker or other financial intermediary associated with your account through which Portfolio shares are held, the Fund’s exchange privilege may allow you to exchange shares of the Portfolio for shares of the same Class of another series of the Fund in an identically registered account. Please see the section of the Prospectus entitled “Shareholder Information—Investor Services—Exchange Privilege” for more information.
    Dated: June 5, 2024
  • About the 4% rule
    Guys, my question is only WHERE low_tech is going to move his money when mm drops below 4.5% !
    Nothing to do w 4% swd, which has always been low imo.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    Thanks to @yogibearbull and @msf. That 15% “cash position” I referenced earlier was somewhat in error and I’d gone back and edited it out - but too late. Had overlooked the fact that I count a significant slug of PRIHX as “cash” for allocation purposes. Probably not wise, but I’ve long done it. So currently the actual (retirement assets) allocation to Fido’s money market funds is only around 7-8% (about half of my cash position). And that is split between Roth and Traditional.
    Good news. I followed Yogi’s directions and stumbled upon the Fido settings for cash positions. When I clicked on “cash” in my portfolio overview it pulled up the current setting as SPAXX. :) So I take back any bad things I may have uttered about Fido.
    FWIW - My nominal IRA cash weighting (including PRIHX) is 10%. So at 15.5% today there is an excess amount equal to around 5.5% that is earmarked for some needs later this summer.
    I am rewarded nearly every time I log in to this great board!
  • About the 4% rule
    @David. Since I started this thread. I will answer your question with why I had an interest. I find that the rule is often quoted so I wondered aloud why some fund company didn’t offer a 50/50 fund fitting Bengen model. Personally I think the rule silly and unworkable in real life and only meaningful as a thought exercise.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    I’m really getting screwed. I remember when my Fido retirement accounts used SPAXX. Than that changed a year ago to “money market.” I didn’t realize there was a difference. Duh. Please advise what step I need to take in order to change my settings so that SPAXX serves as the sweep account for my retirement accounts.
    If you're looking at your account positions and seeing "Cash, Held In Money Market", that's cash held in a money market fund, not a money market bank account. Click on the link. You'll likely see that it is SPAXX. Mine are FDRXX, perhaps because of grandfathering. Just a couple of basis points difference between them. Both are just south of 5%.
    Fidelity taxable MMFs.
    As noted elsewhere, I’ve bumped the retirement cash up to 15+% as I prepare for significant need for cash late summer. Rather pissed at Fido.
    If you've got at least $10K in cash in your IRA, you can open up a position in FZDXX ($10K min for retirement accounts). It's currently paying 5.15%. Fidelity officially requires one to maintain at least $10K in the fund, but generally it is quite forgiving so long as you don't bring the balance down to zero.
    This is not a core fund, so any time you have cash in the IRA (e.g. non-reinvested divs), you'll have to move it to FDRXX yourself or the cash will sit in your "Cash, Held in Money Market" fund.
    To answer the original question: click on the cash link as described above. You may see a "Change Core Position" button if other options are available.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    Regarding Fidelity cash management - it will shortly be adding SPAXX (current SEC yield is 4.97%) as a core account option to its CMA account. Currently you're limited to a bank sweep paying 2.69% APR (2.72% APY).
    Duh. I didn’t realize that. I just figured the Cash Management account paid normal money market rates (around 5%.) If what @msf said is true (I believe so) I’ve been duped because I typically keep well north of 10K in the CMA. It comes in as an automatic monthly transfer from my local bank and serves budgeting needs.
    Thanks @msf for the timely links. I’ll wait until june 15 and take advantage of the new SPAXX option. Better late than never I suppose.
    It pays to read everything @msf posts. He must eat, breathe and sleep investing! (Even better than AI) :)
    .
  • About the 4% rule
    // I will move that money somewhere else
    is what you said, and so I asked the obvious followup
    blockquote class="Quote" rel="Low_Tech">
    Where ?
    Was that question for me?
    I don't know why anyone is concerned about the 4% "rule" nowadays when MMs and many bond funds pay MORE than 4%. You can get 4-5%+ and you don't have to sell anything.
    Conditions will surely change -- but we don't know when or in which direction -- adjust as necessary.
  • About the 4% rule
    I'm not sure everyone is clear on the meaning of the 4% rule. The objectives are simplicity and very high confidence that one will not run out of money within 30 years.
    Conditions will surely change -- but we don't know when or in which direction -- adjust as necessary
    Simplicity: just stay the course, KISS, come hell or high water. No adjustments necessary.
    Gives example of how a target date fund
    Simplicity: Target date funds follow glide paths. The 4% rule hews to a fixed allocation.
    How can you straight line the 4% without taking these inputs into consideration.
    Starting in 1926, a 4% (inflation adjusted) withdrawal regimen from a 50/50 portfolio has never depleted assets in under 30 years. That includes starting in years like 1929, 1973, 1981, etc. The rule already incorporates objective risk, assuming past is prologue.
    That's not to say that people are subjectively able to handle sequence of return risk. And some people may want to plan for more than 30 years, either because they expect a longer life in retirement or their end target value is not simply "better than $0". They want to leave a legacy. And stuff happens; people may not be able to keep to a 4% budget.
    ISTM the biggest risk in the 4% rule is being left with too much money. Planning for worst case without adjustments is necessarily conservative and likely to "fail" on the upside (not spending enough). But by definition any strategy that includes making adjustments is not the simplest possible.
    For those who want to limit the risk of underspending, are willing to accept some risk of having less to spend in some years than they might otherwise like, and can manage more complex strategies (or are willing to hire someone else to do that), @Observant1 cited a good discussion of a couple of such strategies.
    Finally, using cash is very likely to fail. Over the past 96 years (1928-2023 inclusive), 3 mo. T-bill real returns have averaged 0.32%. (See cell T120 here.) Take 4%/year off of that and you're losing more than 3.5% annually. Even without compounding the loss, you'll run out of money in under 30 years.
  • Stashing cash, Summer 2024
    @Derf, at ~ 4.50, just for me, the 3y is borderline. If there's a bump on the Friday employment numbers, it could get more interesting.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    Thanks for the insights re Fido. . The first & only brokerage account for me.
    A bit hard to spot, but with your account positions displayed, there is a link at the top called “more”. Clicking that pulls up their portfolio analyzer. Decent, ISTM, but not great. It bugs me every time about having “a portfolio concentration” (5% in NSRGY) which it seems to feel is in some way bad. And without any concentration it says “Great job.” … Am I to sell some NSRGY just to receive their “Great job” accolade? I think not. :)
    I’m confident that if @Stillers or @FD1000 used their analyzer both would receive a “Great Great Great Job” response.
  • Reality check
    (I received this in an email stating that this was posted on X.) Maybe check your holdings.
    ° Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia shares have rallied by a massive 27% year to date.
    ° This accounts for most of the S&P 500's 11% year-to-date gain.
    ° By comparison, the remaining 495 companies have only seen a 6% gain this year.
    ° Furthermore, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index is up just 5% in 2024.
    ° Currently, the 6 largest S&P 500 components reflect a record ~30% of the index.
    ° Truly remarkable.
  • About the 4% rule
    Where ?
    Was that question for me?
    I don't know why anyone is concerned about the 4% "rule" nowadays when MMs and many bond funds pay MORE than 4%. You can get 4-5%+ and you don't have to sell anything.
    Conditions will surely change -- but we don't know when or in which direction -- adjust as necessary.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/5/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/5/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (39.0%, above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (29.0%, below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (32.0%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +7.0% (average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (119+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (34+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. ECB to cut rates today. EMs - Claudia SCHEINBAUM is the new President of Mexico; Narendra MODI will continue as Prime Minister of India for a 3rd term. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1505/thread
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    Special edition of The Week In Charts - The State of the Markets June 2024.
    The state of the markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:21 Topics
    00:34 Stocks
    10:25 Bonds/Fed
    22:33 Real Estate/Housing
    31:58 Commodities
    36:46 Currencies
    39:09 Crypto
    43:02 Intermarket
    49:53 Economy
    56:03 Free Wealth Path Analysis
    Video
  • About the 4% rule
    @Low_Tech. Cool idea. What are the odds of that working for a thirty year retirement?
    I wouldn't expect ANY one thing to hold for a 30-year income. But for the time being, I have 20% of my retirement in a MM fund. If/when it drops to 4.5% or less, I will move that money somewhere else.
  • Todays’s a good reason why it’s dangerous to short markets …
    @stillers I'm with you on FSELX. It was the first purchase in my wife's Roth IRA back in 1998. Bought some more two years later. Needless to say, she's happy with the 25-year tax-free growth.
    It's also my biggest holding in my Rollover IRA.
    I have some ASML in my Roth IRA.
    Sometimes it's a wild ride, but I'm patient. Aggressively so, for an octogenarian.
    When our teenage grandson became interested in investing a couple of years ago, I insisted he buy SMH first.
    David
  • Nvidia “Leapfrogs” Apple in Value
    ”The shares of the Santa Clara, California-based firm have rallied roughly 147% this year, adding about $1.8 trillion … On Wednesday, (NVDA) shares rose 5.2% to close at a record $1,224.40, pushing the market value to more than $3 trillion and overtaking Apple Inc. (AAPL) in the process.”
    Excerpt from Bloomberg Media - June 5, 2024