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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Energy Stocks: Buy Low Or Get Out Of The Way?
    FYI: Bargain hunting can be a thrill, but remember that it can also be dangerous.
    Brave investors are picking through energy stocks, looking to buy those pummeled by the plunging price of oil. Billions of dollars flowed into energy stock funds last month, a huge leap from the norm, enticed by prices marked down by 25 percent or more since last summer. But many mutual fund managers and other professional investors have a warning for the bargain hunters: Don’t be surprised if it takes years for the prices of energy stocks to fully recover.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.dallasnews.com/business/personal-finance/headlines/20150119-energy-stocks-buy-low-or-get-out-of-the-way.ece
    M* Equity Energy Fund Returns:
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/equity-energy/$FOCA$EE.aspx
  • John Waggoner: Dogs Of The Dow Can Sniff Out Income
    FYI: Collecting most things — except, say, cobras — is a fun, easy way to spend your time. But one of the hardest things to collect these days is income from your investments.
    Regards
    Ted
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/01/23/finding-investment-income/22178431/
    Dogs Of The Dow Website:
    http://www.dogsofthedow.com/
  • Consolidating Mutual Fund help
    OAKBX may do better when energy recovers. They seem to attempt balancing opposing market elements to a greater degree than many conservative allocation funds do. Energy is one part of that equation and it certainly hasn't paid off recently.
    Peer group leader PRWCX (which I also own) has an edge on ER and has outperformed for the past several years. But the two investment approaches are quite different (despite the funds often being lumped together by observors).
    OAKBX is a hard fund to categorize in part because of the balancing act they attempt. (When the parts are working well, volatility appears low). Also, the managers vary market exposure according to their read on market valuation. I hold it in my conservative/hybrid sleeve - but there have been periods when it appeared more aggressive,
    * Nice chart by Charles. He is correct in the moderate allocation label for OAKBX and that label agrees with both Lipper and M*. Personally (I realize that counts little) I consider OAKBX and PRWCX both to be at the upper (aggressive) end of the conservative allocation spectrum.
    (I've owned OAKBX for 8-10 years and PRWCX for about 20)
  • Consolidating Mutual Fund help
    About OAKBX - I had owned this fund for over 15 years but recently sold it for a couple of reasons. One, as you mentioned it had started to lag it's peer's on a consistent basis and two, I built my own equity income/dividend income fund to do the same job I had been paying the Oakmark managers to do saving myself those management fees. NO, I do not think that I am smarter or more clever than they are but I could choose equally or less riskier stocks then this fund holds and get paid a higher yield to do so. That increased yield was really what I was after. YMMV
  • Push To Tax ‘529’ Plans Stokes Debate
    Howdy,
    Being a grand father and contributor to two 529, this is on first blush, outrageous.
    I say this because this country and OUR government is making billions of dollars every year on student loans. This is obscene. For a people to succeed, they need to have universal education. It should be free. For our government to be profiting on the backs of students trying to get ahead is unbelievable. Note that these students, by definition, are the poorest, otherwise, they wouldn't need the loans. Yeah, how elitist is this?
    Nopers, higher education should be FREE to anyone able to be admitted and that can maintain good grades.
    What I propose is to apply a surcharge tax to all the S&P 500 corporations of 10% each to fully subsidize higher education. I mean, hey, all we hear is how they big corporations create jobs and are always eager for qualified applicants.
    Time to pony up.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    ronp
  • How To Analyze Mutual Funds
    I'll give you this for free (you won't read it)...sure fire method: you have to do work... that will stop most investors...they want easy
    1) Learn the managers (credentials) you are hiring a coach
    2) Know and understand the funds holdings...your players
    3) past performance, I agree with 10 years... esp. now thru 2008 period, look for 8-10% avg. depending on category
    4) Cost and Fund Firm...your budget and Administration staff
    Now you are in business....enjoy
  • How To Analyze Mutual Funds
    FYI: Finding and buying the best mutual funds is about much more than past performance or future expectations about economic activity and market movements.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investorplace.com/2015/01/analyze-mutual-funds/print
  • Barron's Roundtable Part I: 22 Investment Ideas: Zulauf, Cohen, Rogers, Black
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    If you’re looking for raging bulls or rabid bears, you’ve come to the wrong section of this esteemed publication. But if you’re seeking ways to make sense of perplexing economic times, and money in a market that offers slimmer pickings than in recent years past, stay right where you are.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&site=&source=hp&q=getting+down+to+business+barron's&oq=getting+down+to+business+barron's&gs_l=hp.3...1719.12428.0.12722.33.22.0.11.11.0.69.1246.22.22.0.msedr...0...1c.1.61.hp..5.28.1103.q7h7har2WHg
  • Looking for advice on small-cap funds
    >> Meridian Growth (MERDX) [is] among Charles's small cap Great Owls. Meridian Small Cap Growth, run by the guys who managed Janus Triton to a brilliant record, has also taken off like a rocket.
    If you want to see what 'like a rocket' actually means, check the performance of MRAGX, WEMMX, GABSX, and Janus Triton (JGMAX.lw) from 9/5/13, when the brand-new owls took over Meridian, to today. You will see that the Triton fund they departed from has outperformed them even more than they have outperformed Gabelli's two. What does this tell us? Inasmuch as 'owl' connotes wisdom and the long patient view, or something, these ones are short-flight thus far, maybe holding their own.
  • Obama Wants To Reduce Tax Breaks For 529 plans
    It seems to me that one of the main problems with this type of discussion is that some participants seem to classify fellow citizens as either "100% self-made men" (whether true or not) and "everyone else", who by definition are therefore no-good lazy scumbags. Interestingly, these folks invariably classify themselves as the 100% self-made type. The dictionary defines "selfish" as: "lacking consideration for others; concerned chiefly with one's own personal profit or pleasure". I leave it to others as to whether that particular definition is appropriate to the type of individuals I've mentioned.
    Perhaps my observations for the past 75 years are not typical, but it has been my experience that there many more than just two types of individuals; rather there is a very broad spectrum of people, with hugely varying degrees of human assets: inherited assets, mental ability, physical ability, and plain old luck. Sure there are no-good bums out there who have chosen not to contribute their fair share to their personal good, to say nothing of the common good. BUT I DO NOT FOR A MOMENT BELIEVE THAT THEY ARE THE MAJORITY of those who need some sort of assistance to allow them to survive.
    To suggest that all it takes for anyone in America to succeed is a little hard work is totally fatuous. This concept of rugged individualism, wherein someone feels that they have absolutely no obligation to spend one tax dollar on anything that isn't a direct immediate personal benefit to them is, in my opinion, just plain sick. I say this as half of a married couple who have no children, but have cheerfully voted for over fifty-five years to support our public schools, common infrastructure, and where reasonable, public assistance to the less fortunate. Does that mean that there is no place for alternatives, such as charter schools? Not at all: depending on the effectiveness of the local school system, alternatives may be a very good thing.
    Additionally, anyone who thinks that our younger people have the same advantages of relatively inexpensive higher education, employment and retirement stability that we older folks enjoyed is living on some other planet.
    I'm under no illusion that this commentary will change one single mind, but at least some things have been said that needed saying.
  • Looking for advice on small-cap funds
    Whakamole....here is a thread from a year ago which may help to address your question. I had bookmarked this at the time, as I had a similar question as yours. It's interesting to take a look at the recommendations, and the performance of the funds.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/5469/small-and-mid-cap-fund-recommendations/p1
    For what it's worth....I chose SCMFX.
  • Looking for advice on small-cap funds
    My experience is this is another area for active management, not indexing. Fido has some excellent sc funds. Discovery and one or two others. I myself favor, in addition, GABSX and WEMMX. Gabelli would probably be the chief person to call himself brilliant, but he does outperform, and is prudent. FLPSX is not small-cap, but well worth having in your 401k if you do not already.
  • Obama Wants To Reduce Tax Breaks For 529 plans
    Mcm --- ' wealth redistribution ... has never worked over the long-haul anywhere in the world throughout history'
    Jeez louise. Progressive taxation, and even unprogressive taxation, has been long considered redistributive, and widely accepted as such, as long as there has been taxation. And a huge and longlived success. Learn some history before asserting.
    There have always been shortsighted libertarian-style arguments against it, but it has been so meant from the getgo.
    Bully for all the tough and hardworking bootstrappers here. You go. If only you can keep from always concluding that anyone can do it. You did not build that alone.
    +1 to Tiger.
  • Watch out or Ignore?
    Read this quote in an article. To tell the truth it makes me feel like now is the time for dampening down risk. The question is what are the best vehicles for accomplishing that while realizing returns better than short term bonds and cash. Are you positioning your portfolio for a significant correction, and if so what investments are you using?
    "US equities have risen each year since 2009. Since 1871 US equities have never risen for seven consecutive years. Are you betting that 2015 will break the record? Even though there are secular bull and bear markets that can last 20-30 years, there are dramatic cyclical market downturns that occur about twice a decade which can have severe negative impacts on one's cumulative investment return. It took 30 months for the S&P 500 to fall 49% between March 2000 and October 2002, and about seven years to recover (total return). It took 17 months for the S&P 500 to fall 57% in the 2007-2008 financial crisis and 5.4 years to recover (total return). More significantly, this last recovery has been fueled by central banks flooding markets with liquidity and forcing money out of savings and into risk assets to find a return.
  • Push To Tax ‘529’ Plans Stokes Debate
    Since the other thread turned into a military benefits debate, I'll post this here.
    If you tax it more, you get less of it.
    So I guess Obama wants less saving for education....
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000349105
  • Real Asset Funds as Diversifier
    Thanks for the info, Scott. I see that Fidelity and Vanguard both hold a lot of shares of ELS in their respective real estate funds.
    Probably in part due to Sam Zell as chairman. That said, ELS is an example for me of the importance of being interested in the underlying company. I liked it, but didn't really feel that it was a long-term holding (or that I guess it "made the list") and did well and sold it late last year because I felt it was overvalued. Had I held on, would have continued higher nicely.
    I suppose it speaks to the idea of you hold something for a long-term and sometimes it'll be overvalued, sometimes not, but you hope the long-term trend is higher. Trying to make judgment calls about overvaluation in the short-term - especially with monetary policy the way it is in the world - can certainly lead to disappointment.
    I continue to hold a number of other real estate holdings (or hybrid REITs, or in the case of BPY, a REIT-y MLP) - some of which I think are noticeably overvalued - for the long-term and simply reinvest.
    There's quite a few REITs that I would be interested in (Vornado, Boston Properties, Tanger Outlet), but not at these levels.
    That said, what will be the demand for REITs if the 10 year goes to 1%?