HY Muni trend is continuing since the beginning of this year. Over 1 billion flow last week into national muni.

@ The New England Patroits will beat the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 2015. Remember, you heard it here first !
Regards,
Ted

Hi @Joe
We have been in and out of TIPs fund over the past 6 years. Our most common funds (one's readily available to us) have been TIP, FINPX, ACITX, BPRIX and LTPZ. Although our Fidelity brokerage accounts allow just about any TIPs area we would choose to use.
This investment area wanders about, not unlike other bond and equity areas. We do use this area, from time to time, for "cash parking" versus a money market fund. If one desires more flexibility to sell these to move the monies to another area, an etf ( as with TIP ) might prove more valuable.
Also note that not all active managed TIPs funds are equal. Some will hold a variety of short or longer term gov't. TIPs; as well as a mix of other investment grade corp. bonds within a fund or perhaps other Treasury issues. Although most TIPs total returns end with similar results over a long time frame.
Also of note is that the TIPs area, not unlike other U.S. gov't. issues also represent an area during a flight to safety in the markets, to where safe haven monies will travel.
Another circumstance, is that one may discover existing TIPs exposure within many bond funds. So, you may already have enough exposure; unless you choose to invest directly into this area, per your original question.
If you have choices for TIPs within your investment account, I would suggest a review of LTPZ. This fund uses many tools to achieve returns, so this is not a plain jane TIPs fund and will also track long term bond pricing.
For any TIPs funds, take a look at the overall longer term total returns. You will not win the race to short term results, but the returns shouldn't burn down your investment house either.
As per the MFO disclaimer: "Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer."
You could do much worse and holding TIPs depends upon your own philosophy, of course; and how such holdings fit into your own investment plan. Personally, we attempt to not invest less than 5% in a given area, considering that less than this percentage may not have any affect, good or bad; upon an overall portfolio. This doesn't mean that one can not dollar cost average into a position, but this is our own consideration and we generally take a 5% position in one big bite. We also have obtained this 5% position using more than one fund for the total value. The mix and match method. An example would be that we have held as much as 45% of our portfolio in high yield bond funds, using as many as 7 at one time to spread the manager(s) abilities/skills and take the average of results for the total return in this particular.
M* TIPs, active managed Click columns to sort for return by year period, as the list is set by alpha fund name. Note that the variance between these TIPs funds have a return spread for YTD of 2.45% from the best to the worst. "Holy spread", as Robin would express to Batman.
Lastly, most TIPs funds have been a happy area since the beginning of the year. But, this is also the case with many investment grade bond funds. This may not been the case in 3, 6 or 12 months. The markets are fickle, eh ??? Note: We are watching LTPZ, in particular; at this time.
I'm out of coffee and thoughts for the time being.
Take care,
Catch

There's a lot to say about this topic, but I'll limit myself to trying to help explain Lewis's broad point with a reference that's purely about investment process. The guys who run PRBLX, one of the best U.S. stock funds there is, use an approach that combines "responsible" and return-oriented investing, as explained in this Barron's piece.
Money quotes from the article:
'Allen uses ESG ** "to identify risk that others may have missed." If a company demonstrates any bad behavior -- such as a health-care company that hawks its products in an unethical way -- Ahlsten often will nix it from the portfolio. The theory behind the high ground: Paying close attention to ESG issues beforehand means fewer unpleasant surprises in the morning paper and the company's stock price in the future.'
'Call it socially responsible, but Allen says his strategy is just due diligence. "It's not just about feeling good about yourself in the morning," he says. "When we're looking at two similarly valued energy companies, and one has a good track record for worker safety and one doesn't, which do we invest in? That's a no-brainer.'
** ESG = environment, social, and governance characteristics.

Rodriguez appears to be crying in his beer. Markets, politicians, voters and central bank's are conspiring to make his job difficult:
"I said if we continued down this pathway that sometime between '14 and '18, we would experience a financial crisis of equal or greater magnitude than what we have just gone through."
Not unlike Andrew Lloyd Webber's Phantom: "A disaster beyond your imagination will befall you." :)
-
His thoughts on QE & Inflation make the most sense of anything I've heard or read on those issues. Certainly, there seems to be some kind of conundrum going on when you look at behavior in the commodities markets.

The link is not working. Try below. Bob is expecting fiscal conservatives to take over, low interest policy to disappear and stock crash which FPA is ready to pounce on.
Another doom and gloomer. Aren't you scared Ted?
http://news.investors.com/investing-mutual-funds/010215-732946-stock-mutual-fund-2015-outlook-by-fund-manager-bob-rodriguez.htm?p=full

I think Vanguard and Fidelity don't concern themselves at all with corporate executives, BODs, pay packages, etc. As top shareholders in the country, their customers should expect them to be some what interested, if not exactly Carl Icahnish about their role.
Occidental Petroleum ex CEO carved out nearly $1Billion before institutional shareholders requested a modest reduction. (Was Vanguard going to wait till he got $2B, or "its not our concern"??
Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel suggests that many tech companies give out too many stock options to their employees, diluting shares for common shareholders. Is Vanguard just supposed to say not my business, they still made money?
Michael F. Price at Mutual shares in the 90's would actually request that corporations do right by shareholders. Is that too much to ask? Looks like Mike made a nice donation to AE School of Medicine. Pretty self-serving with his name on the center/building.
http://www.einstein.yu.edu/about/price-center.asp

One thing for sure, the people that invest in the new fund must surely know what they are investing in, or do they?
From a earlier thread here on MFO, it looks like derivatives of the intention the fund wants, not the actual products. http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/18192/janus-chairman-didn-t-know-details-of-gross-s-investment#latest
Fascinating thread catch22.

---Jan 10, 2015
PTTRX is at +1.5% for 3 months and +.97% YTD.
JUCIX is at -.77% for 3 months and -.29% YTD.
---Jan 17, 2015
PTTRX is at +.58% for current week and +1.56% YTD.
JUCIX is at -.39% for current week and -.68% YTD.
---Jan 30, 2015
PTTRX is at +2.62% YTD
JUCIX is at +.28 YTD
Should be a fun show going forward; and perhaps from some of those investors large and small amounts, who took their monies and ran elsewhere.....based upon ????? Did they really believe that the current day PIMCO was an all inclusive function of one man? I would bet my invested monies in PIMIX that Mr. G seldom had any input into the fund operation on a daily basis.
In theory, then; we should be able to see and understand the true wisdom and/or skills of Mr. Gross, if he is the one who is pushing the investment area buttons for this new and reworked bond fund at Janus.
Summary =: many here are much brighter than those whose job it is to have others money entrusted to them to manage. Sadly, a pretty scary thought.
Bill Gross's new home fund

Howdy,
Hank was spot on, as were the others. Real assets can be in the form of equities (i.e. natural resource funds), or the actual commodities themselves, also available in funds and ETFs. The former consists of stocks of companies involved in the commodity, the latter are options and futures and actual stockpiles of the commodity itself. These instruments are traded in different markets very often dancing to different drummers.
Do they track each other? Sure, if the commodity is doing well, the companies involved with it will also do well, and vice versa. However, as an investor, you also need to understand that for various and sundry reasons, they can diverge considerably, particularly in the short run.
Hand also mentioned the cyclicality [love that word, Hank] of the commodity markets. This is a pretty well established historical pattern. They run 12-15 years or so. This is due to their nature - you have to explore, discover, gather, process, deliver . . . oh, and have all your permits. It takes enormous time to bring new resources online and that results in the cyclicality.
When you talk about diversification, in this case it's your portfolio you're considering. Why not consider the diversification of your wealth. About ten years back, I read a quote from the elder Baron Rothschild saying that to protect yourself financially, one should 1/3 of their wealth in securities, 1/3 in real estate, and 1/3 in rare art [define rare art as you wish, but it ain't Beanie Babies.]
When I first read this, I ran my numbers and almost blew chunks. I was 90/8/2. I've worked pretty hard to get it to around 60/30/10 and am still working at it.
Just some ramblings,
and so it goes,
peace,
rono

be careful if you've never ventured in closed end funds before. i've owned JRI since it lost its IPO premium and the price spent years in 16s before it moved up recently. closed end funds have a asset class volatility related to premium/discount movement in addition to the volatility of the underlying leveraged portfolio. so that particular vehicle might not work as intended. unless you have experience with closed-end funds, the open end unleveraged alternative might be better.
separately, i recall you were looking for more tax efficient vehicles, and JRI is the opposite of that.

Yes, you are correct. This type of fund (JRI, NRIAX, etc) would be used in a tax-deferred account. They all look pretty tax inefficient to me.

OK, hate to do this...... but for Vanguard pump & you asked
MY main focus 10 yr. figures right thru the 2008 disaster;
VGHCX +13.19 yr. avg
VHCOX +10.65 "
VPCCX +10.56 "
YACKX +10.41 (counted as Vanguard..not.... but my #2holding
Balanced:
VWIAX +7.45 (60% bonds)
VWELX +8.14 (30% bonds)
V.ETF's:
VHT +11.1 (10 yr)
VYM +15.5 (5 YRS)
Bonds;
VWEHX +6.5
PRHYX +7.7
10 Managed untouchables for long term, other 20 Mostly stocks could be gone at anytime

be careful if you've never ventured in closed end funds before. i've owned JRI since it lost its IPO premium and the price spent years in 16s before it moved up recently. closed end funds have a asset class volatility related to premium/discount movement in addition to the volatility of the underlying leveraged portfolio. so that particular vehicle might not work as intended. unless you have experience with closed-end funds, the open end unleveraged alternative might be better.
separately, i recall you were looking for more tax efficient vehicles, and JRI is the opposite of that.

I consider diversification not only in terms of large cap, small, intl, and bonds, etc but in sectors too. If I had not had my utility funds, reit etf and overweight in health care this past year, my total portfolio returns would have been considerable less. It is easy in hindsight to say if I would have had 100% in the S + P index, I would have had a nice 13% + return, but you never know when the tide is turning and by the time you do, you have likely lost half the runup. I am keeping my allocation to international, emerging market, energy, industrial where it is, who knows, they may be next years winners. I am 65% stocks 35% cash and bonds and will pretty much stay at that allocation.

My biggest disappointment in 2014 has been emerging markets as I own ODMAX & MAPIX both stock funds and TGEIX an em bond fund. Is it time to switch or hold? Three year performance is ok but the world is a mess in the near future and I think US is place to be for over 75% of portfolio. Other than that perhaps 20% international. Opinions appreciated.

David -- thank you for setting up this call. I likely will not be able to attend the call in person, and so would like to submit the following questions for Mr. Horn, for your consideration.
======================================
1. I've seen PGVFX described as a "true, deep value fund". In spite of this, PGVFX seems to always be nearly fully invested, while other "deep value" managers are not shy about holding cash when markets appear too rich. Why does Polaris' "deep value" style diverge from other definitions of "deep value" investing in this way? Would it be accurate to think of PGVFX as more a relative value than deep value fund?
2. I've read that earlier in his career, Mr. Horn used options and similar instruments to enhance portfolio performance and limit volatility. I believe PGVFX also has the flexibility to use similar instruments as part of its investing strategy. Would you provide an overview of PGVFX's use of these instruments and, further, provide a sense of how often these instruments are used in practice?
3. Recently PGVFX took the unusual step of reducing its expense ratio considerably, in spite of what appears to be a rather stable asset base. As a longer-term investor in PGVFX (c.2005) I appreciate this reduction, but am so surprised by the decrease that I am left puzzled as to why this has occurred. Would you provide some context as to what was behind the reduction? (And, thanks !)
4. As a small, independent advisor, Polaris has the potential to offer long-term investors opportunities for long-term outperformance. However, it could also be the case that Polaris' size could create other challenges to achieving outperformance. One of these challenges is attracting and retaining analytic staff. Another is sustaining the culture that has contributed to Polaris' performance in the past. How does a smaller firm like Polaris retain top talent, and get on the radar screen of potential analytic and portfolio management staff?
5. I am interested in understanding more about PGVFX's investment process. Specifically, the PGVFX literature indicates that Polaris uses proprietary software to identify/screen undervalued companies which are then pulled aside for further analytic review. Given the free range PGVFX has in terms of market cap, and breadth of firms in PGVFX's investable universe, I'm having trouble understanding how Polaris' 7-person team can provide coverage of this universe, unless the screening process is highly tailored (and potentially has a forecasting / data mining component). Is Polaris' approach somehow in fact as much based on modeling as much as it is traditional securities desk research? Further, does Polaris rely on outside securities research in building porfolios?
6. After initial screens are made, how does Polaris decide on country/region allocations for the PGVFX portfolio? Are macro-forces / macro research also a consideration, or is it strictly based on valuations (while remaining consistent with the typical allocation targets specified in the prospectus)? Roughly speaking, what is the largest % of the PGVFX portfolio that has ever been allocated to the US? What is the largest % of the PGVFX that has ever been devoted to a single country outside the US?
7. Does PGVFX hedge its exposure to foreign currencies and, if so, how does it make decisions on which markets/currencies to hedge vs. not?
8. What does Polaris feel its capacity is for PGVFX in terms of AUM (including both the fund itself, and any separate accounts)?
9. PGVFX did a remarkable job of avoiding the dot-com bubble, but seems to have fallen harder than the benchmark in the 2007-2008 era. What was the difference in Polaris' process 2007-2008 vs. 2000-2002?
10. How does Polaris define a "value trap", and how does Polaris' process help avoid value traps?
11. Lastly (strictly personal interest, so as to not make everything terribly dour and technical) -- at what age did Mr. Horn begin his career as an investor (what was his first stock)? If Mr. Horn had not pursued a career in investing, what field or pursuit would he have likely ended up in ?

The only real Diversification I do is hold a certain % of my portfolio in Bonds, they serve a purpose, I consider them my CASH, returning 3+% in 2014, , and I won't give them up, though they do reduce my total returns (11% in 2014), I do change %'s (yearly) of total holdings I have in bonds....
So Big (S&P) companies had a good year last year, great...... I hold a lot of them,
but not Always the case and nobody knows about 2015, so its hard to comment on being Diversified in other assets classes for 2015......just thinking

Vanguard getting into it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/excitement-builds-around-vanguard-muni-170027277.html

"....... 19.9% of U.S. equity fund managers bested their benchmarks, according to Morningstar -- but those who did managed an advantage of 1.8 percentage points, on average"
those are my "people" make sure their yours....+1.8% is a lot of money for spending

FYI: –- Nuveen Asset Management’s California and national high-yield municipal-bond funds earned the biggest tax-free returns in 2014, leading a broad rally in risky debt as investors combatted an unexpected drop in interest rates.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-05/nuveen-s-21-return-leads-2014-s-high-yield-frenzy-muni-credit.html
M* Snapshot Of NCHAX: http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=NCHAX&region=usa&culture=en-US
Lipper Snapshot Of NCHAX: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/NCHAX?countrycode=US
NCHAX Is Ranked #12 In The (MCL) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/muni-california-long/nuveen-california-high-yield-municipal-bond-fund/nchax