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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The *real* smart money is shorting junk bonds
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ex-goldman-trader-correctly-shorted-152002886.html
    To update the above. As of Friday, the average junk bond fund per Morningstar was negative 0.24%. The Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index was positive 0.84%. Today's negative price action just adds to the junk bond woes. We better not hope this is a reverse of 2008/09 where junk bonds led stocks with junk bottoming in mid December and stocks early March. It's been completely different in junk munis which have been making YTD highs this month (until today in some of the funds) I am 89% in junk munis but they are on a tight rein.
  • How is this for enforcemnt? Hello ... SEC ... Wake up!
    It's pretty rare that a lawyer loses his license, period. I occasionally read the Cal Bar's disciplinary actions, because it's astonishing to read how much it takes to get a slap on the wrist. (And Calif. is the home of the largest number of lawyers.)
    Moral turpitude is a common theme, though usually not the sole or main reason for disbarment. April 2012 may be an exception. That month's Journal listed 9 disbarments, seven of which mentioned moral turpitude. Several of those read along the lines: "a felony involving moral turpitude. As such, it meets the criteria for summary disbarment."
    Disclaimer - I'm not a lawyer, I'm not in California. And I've never been accused of moral turpitude :-)
    I don't see thievery (theft of services) as being unrelated to a job in which someone is entrusted to keep others' money safe. Perhaps embezzlement would have been more closely related to the job; still ... stealing is stealing.
    @InformalEconomist - thanks for the links. $67K isn't exactly petty larceny.
    A gateless system is effectively a proof-of-payment system, where people are trusted to buy their tickets. In order to get people to comply in such systems, there have to be serious penalties for those caught. Simply paying back the amount stolen (plus 1% in legal fees) would constitute a license to steal. (Don't get caught, make money; get caught, pay what you owed, no pain.)
  • ETAGX - Eventide Gilead
    The performance relative to other similar funds is superior going back to 5 year returns.
    Personally, I would not buy this because of the very high front load. If you are comfortable with the front load or can buy this without the front load; this fund may be worth consideration for you, if this sector fills a space in your portfolio that you desire to have.
    As with any fund right now; one finds a very good opportunity to observe fund reactions to the current market turmoil.
    E.R. at 1.5% and a 5.75% front load. If one has to pay the front load, well.....and the e.r. is very steep.
    Lastly, I will presume that returns that are posted for this fund are loaded adjusted. I can not confirm this data.
    Composition
  • How is this for enforcemnt? Hello ... SEC ... Wake up!
    From Bloomberg article:
    Burrows’s attempt to exploit a vulnerability in the way rail travel is priced is a microcosm of the behavior of how some traders sought to profit from the way currency and interest rate benchmarks such as Libor are calculated -- regardless of rules requiring honest personal conduct. Banning someone from the industry over something unrelated to work-place conduct shows how seriously the FCA takes telling the truth as it tries to rebuild trust in London’s financial markets, lawyers said.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-15/former-blackrock-managing-director-banned-for-evading-rail-fares.html
    From BBC News:
    bbc.com/news/business-30475232
  • How is this for enforcemnt? Hello ... SEC ... Wake up!
    Several licensed professions have provisions where licenses can be revoked for crimes of moral turpitude - I'd mentioned lawyers; also real estate agent and doctors. Likely others. Should we hold financial fiduciaries to a lesser standard than real estate agents? Or conversely, does it make sense to hold real estate agents to a greater standard?
    The point of moral turpitude is that various industries look at conduct which, while not crimes within the industry (such as the ones you alluded to), reflect upon the person's ability to deal fairly with the public. It's one of those squishy areas; it struck me that this was the standard/reasoning being applied. And there are several professions that apply this standard.
    We have rules about permanent revocation of licenses - I've no problem with them, because they're related to future risk (as with your DUI example). I had something different in mind. Rather something like:
    16 year old kid backs his dad's car past the driveway into the street. Cop happens to be passing by, gets the kid for driving w/o a license. Kid takes drivers ed, passes road test/written test, gets licensed. Should he be prohibited from driving (riding train) because he previously drove without a license (rode train w/o a ticket)?
    So long as the driver (rider) is properly licensed (ticketed), why should the driver (rider) be barred from the legal activity?
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Fall Amid Lower Crude Oil
    You can't "destroy" something you never had...relax enjoy the inevitable (ups & downs)
    wait till tomorrow, next week, next year, 10 years...
  • World Oversold
    FYI: There have been a few times this year when the world's stock markets were nearly all overbought, and a few times when they were nearly all oversold. Right now we're in one of those "oversold" periods.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/12/15/world-oversold.html?printerFriendly=true
  • Best Oppenheimer Funds For 2015
    FYI: Oppenheimer has been around for more than half a century. Their most notable product offerings are their mutual funds, which are diversified across asset classes for Equities (Global, Growth, Core and Value), Fixed Income (Global Debt, High Yield Corporate Debt, Investment Grade Debt, and Municipal Bonds) and Alternatives (Commodities and MLPs).
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investorplace.com/2014/12/best-oppenheimer-funds-2015/print
  • Liquid Alts. How much of your portfolio should be in them?
    I have been watching on the sideline on this " alternatives" while holding with a healthy % of cash and short term bond funds. I welcome another 10% drop as of this Friday - great entry points.
    I'm not sure what a "great entry point" is or would be. Admittedly, I have only a cursory knowledge of markets and investing. I do know that the longer the time horizon, the higher (in valuation terms) that entry point can be. So, were I a youngster of 35, I'd throw everything into a good index fund (perhaps the Wilshire 5000) and forget about it.
    David has pointed out on more than one occassion in his monthly commentaries that equity markets in general don't appear cheap. One quick take-away from his March 2014 piece: "Hence inflows into an overpriced market." (You barely need read between the lines here to fathom the sentiment.) http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2014/03/march-1-2014/.
    For context, The Dow closed at 16,322 on February 28, 2014.
    I try to put things in the widest context possible. I look at the DJI during its late 1990s peak years and find it running in the 9,000-10,000 area (with a close on December 31, 1999 around 11,500). Now, nearly 15 years later, it hasn't yet doubled. So ... by that gage, I don't think we're in an obscenely overpriced equity market here in the U.S. - but not a cheap one either.
    There's great danger in numbers. Back in the late 1990s (when TV gave birth to CNBC) with the Dow at 9,000-10,000, a 1,000 point gain would have amounted to more than a 10% increase in value. Recently, with the Dow around 18,000, a 1,000 point gain still garners the same media "hoopla" - but is, in fact, only about a 5% change in value. So, be careful looking at those "ups and downs" and trying to assess changes in valuations.
    There's a conventional school of thought which follows something called: "The Rule of 8." Longtime financial commentator Bruce Williams used to refer to it on his radio program. In a nutshell - one's investments should double in nominal value every eight years. One wonders, however, whether in an era of low inflation and 2% yields on Treasuries, that's still a realistic expectation.
    If there is an "undervalued" area, it would apoear to be in the commodity related sectors. Returns for Price's New Era (PRNEX), a fund with a solid long term track record, are now in the single-digits going back 10 years. There's plenty of room to run there ... but only if inflation picks up. One question I've been pondering without much success is: What would a fund like PRNEX do in the event of rising commodities prices and a falling U.S. equity market? Watching recent market movements, I suspect a fund like that would hold its own or possibly gain, while the major equity indexes were tumbling. But ...I'm decidedly not sure.
    Regards
  • How is this for enforcemnt? Hello ... SEC ... Wake up!
    A BlackRock fund manage has now been banned from the finacial service industry. Why? He got caught failing to pay train fare. And, get this, he can still ride the train! You can read the details through the link below.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fare-dogding-fund-manager-is-banned-from-finance-industry-2014-12-15?siteid=rss&rss=1
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Sometimes (in the past active management beat passive
    Hi Ted,
    The title of the Barron's article is " A Glimmer of Hope for Active Fund Managers". Here is a Link to it:
    http://online.barrons.com/articles/a-glimmer-of-hope-for-active-fund-managers-1418437745
    I suspect that one major factor contributing to active managers lackluster performance most recently is the changing competitive environment.
    In times past, the managers were mostly trading against amateurs, the general public. Today, over 70 % of the trading is done against other professionals. Any advantages are Neutralized by smart pro going against equally smart pro. Their operational and research costs promote underperformance when measured against Index products.
    But long-term active fund exceptions exist. You and many MFOers know them.
    Best Holiday. Wishes.
  • Don't Outthink This.
    They believed the demand will continue to rise and this down turn will be rather short lived, perhaps a year or two.
    That is a no brainer. The world population is going from 7B to 10B in 2050 - oil will be in demand for a long time.
  • Perkins (Janus) funds - openings, gains, tax strategy
    Interesting find. Yes, JMCVX (or JNMCX for "D" shares) still remains closed. Interesting to see Janus reopen JSCVX (or JNPSX for "D" shares) as I thought it was too large to manage. Fortunately, my JNMCX and JNPSX are in non-taxable accounts.
    In regards to your tax comment, I did the same thing. I sold my TMCGX in early November as I was one of the individuals that bought TMCGX when it reopened with a NAV around $50 in early 2011. I calculated a gain of roughly $50 to sell my entire TMCGX position prior to the $23 per share CG distribution. It would have cost me a lot more to take the $23 per share CG than sell my entire position. Now, I plan to put the money back after the distribution.
  • Sometimes (in the past active management beat passive
    From an article on Barron s website
    "From 1962 through 1981, the median actively managed fund returned nearly 70 percentage points more than the S&P 500 over those 20 years. Unfortunately, the good times didn’t last: From June 1983 to June 2014, the median fund underperformed the market by more than 80 percentage points."
    The author indicates that active outperforms more often in a rising interest enviornment
  • The 7 Best Investments Of 2014
    Wrong. Stock BLUE up over 100% last week alone.
  • The 7 Best Investments Of 2014
    FYI: Every year, new global trends emerge, old ones play out, and the financial markets adjust. This can offer new opportunities for investors to make money if their forecasts are accurate, their investments are timely, and they choose their assets well.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/12/13/247-wall-st-best-investments/20205629/
  • Have Small-Cap Stocks Suffered Enough?
    I too am keeping my small and mid cap funds be, have both FSCRX and HDPSX. I halved the Fidelity one this year based on aum was so high, transferring proceeds to the Hodges Small Cap. Each has done a bit over 1%. However, two small cap stocks played have done well, but I limit these trading stocks to small % of total.