Don't Outthink This. A 50% decline in the price of WTI crude over the past three months without any fundamental change from what has/had occurred throughout the first half of the year, and the extreme selloffs in many energy stocks and other stocks with peripheral association to oil is a gift from the gods. In any given 1-2 year period there is a stock market black swan event that is totally unexpected and unrelated to the fundamentals. Rather, it is an emotion-driven event that takes on a life of its own, overshooting to the upside or downside. This is an extraordinary investing opportunity and you should have already made your Xmas shopping list and be averaging into the best of the stocks and ETFs that have been decimated.
Examples:
1. Mid and small cap energy stocks: WLL, OAS, CXO, CLR. These are NOT stocks with extraordinary debt or leverage within their sector and they have declined between 50% to 70% in just 3-4 months. WLL already trades well below book value.
2. ETFs: energy exploration & production (PXE, PXI).
MLPs (MLPI, MLPX)
3. MLPs: EPD, MMP, PAA, WPZ. These are companies that transport oil or natural gas and are involved in various aspects of the energy infrastructure. A high percentage of their revenues come from long-term, fee-based contracts with built-in price escalators. They will get paid regardless of the price of WTI crude and the energy demand in the US shows little sign of abating. The U.S. is not in a recession nor does anyone really see one on the horizon based upon recent employment data, retail sales figures, corporate profits, etc., These stocks have sold off about 20% in three months and they pay dividends between 4% to 8% (WPZ).
4. GLOG (GasLog): Off nearly 50% from its high this year, price:book ratio of 1.5 and a nearly 3% dividend. This stock is involved in liquid natural gas cargo transport and the price of WTI crude should not logically result in a loss of 50% NAV. Do you really think the demand for inexpensive natural gas by emerging market countries and European countries that are totally dependent upon imports for their energy needs will evaporate for the remainder of the decade??
5. Transports: Specifically, the railroad stocks: GBX, TRN, CP, CNI. Railroad stocks with ANY exposure to transport of oil have also been dragged down, even if oil transport makes up a small fraction of their total business.
6. Chemical stocks: WLK, LYB. Both stocks are involved in oil refining and production of gasoline additives although this is not a majority of their businesses. Both have lost 45% in the past three months and LYB sports a dividend approaching 4%.
I could go on but the point is obvious: if you are not slowly buying ETFs and top quality stocks that are now on sale by averaging in you need to ask yourself what you are waiting for. Are you the same "investor(s)" that would not buy stocks or ETFs in March 2009 after the S&P 500 had lost 55% of its value because you were waiting for it to decline another 20% ?? Because the CNBC "experts" said the S&P 500 was going to decline to 400 or 500 and the world's financial system was going to collapse and vaporize??
FWIW, I am slowly buying into many of the above names with the understanding and expectation that my initial positions will lose between 5% to 25% over the next month or two. However, that is why one slowly scales into a position. When the turn does come it will literally happen overnight and these stocks will gain 5% to 10% a day for several consecutive days and then you will say that you've missed the turn and it is too late to get in.
These are not dot.com stocks or biotech stocks with promising Phase I or Phase II trials for a single drug. These are established, well run businesses with very real assets and earnings. You will not catch the precise bottom but 2 or 3 years from now these will be very profitable investments and you will ask yourself why you missed this investing opportunity.
The Closing Bell: Dow's 300-point Drop Friday Caps Worst Week Since 2011 S&P 500 Since 2012 No Mike. They'll sort it out. That's probably why they include a separate (earlier) "record date" before the distribution date. Shouldn't have any effect. But a nice thought. You'll get today's price - but not the X-Dividend payment the other shareholders received. Should work out the same.
(I'm assuming the $$ is in some type of tax-sheltered plan like an IRA or 401k. It not, than there are some tax ramifications)
The Closing Bell: Dow's 300-point Drop Friday Caps Worst Week Since 2011 S&P 500 Since 2012 Hank, funny you should say that about PRWCX. I decided to sell my stake in FAAFX on Thursday to shift that money into PRWCX today, which I did. Does that mean I got a 10% bargain on that purchase of PRWCX? I'm always confused on distributions affecting price.
The Closing Bell: Dow's 300-point Drop Friday Caps Worst Week Since 2011 S&P 500 Since 2012 ACDJX was down 7.11% and ARYVX down 5.86%. I'll have some extra shares for the future so as always its not the big loss it seems.
The Closing Bell: Dow's 300-point Drop Friday Caps Worst Week Since 2011 S&P 500 Since 2012 Ouch is right. Tame little PRWCX dropped over 10% today - distribution.
RSIVX vs ICMUX (short term high yield) Here is an update about the recent performance of ICMUX. Per M*, its performance since 8/31/14 and the performance of some other funds mentioned in this thread are as follows:
ICMUX: -4.4%
RPHYX: +0.3%
RSIVX: -0.8%
DLINX: -0.6%
M* High Yield Bond Index: -4.4%
Per M*, ICMUX has an effective duration of only 1.19 years and has 34% allocated to cash. But, its loss since 8/31/14 is as great at M*'s high yield bond index!
Looking at their holdings, there is a substantial allocation to the energy sector including the top two holdings. This probably explains the size of the loss.
Perhaps this fund will rebound quickly and demonstrate the difference between volatility and risk. Allocating some of their cash at the right time could help.
But, recent performance suggests ICMUX is a market cycle fund and not a fund for someone looking for a smooth ride and an easy exit if the need might arise to sell shares in a relatively short period of time.
Art Cashin: High-yield contagion fears rise as oil extends drop
The Closing Bell: Dow's 300-point Drop Friday Caps Worst Week Since 2011 S&P 500 Since 2012
Art Cashin: High-yield contagion fears rise as oil extends drop
Probably the same analysts and economists (ex Gundlach) who were almost universal in their predictions that interest rates had only one way to go in 20
14 and that was up. Which analysts and economists thought the big market in 20
14 would be junk muni bonds? Price shot out of the gate in January 20
14 and then months later the analysts and economists all jumped on the price bandwagon trying to explain fundamentally why it was such a strong bull market.
Art Cashin: High-yield contagion fears rise as oil extends drop
Art Cashin: High-yield contagion fears rise as oil extends drop US 10 year at 2.11% the 52 week low is 1.91%
When will it hit 1%?
Germany, Spain, Italy, UK all lower then the US!
A close below 2% and I pay Heezsafe $250 or if he has disappeared, I simply contribute to David and the board. This will be less than
1/
10 of
1% of what I made in junk munis this year. The moral of the story is trade what you see, not what you think!! In other words, go with price and only price and leave your opinions and beliefs (and especially those of the experts) behind. No way did I ever think rates would get this low. In fact, I was among the mass of misinformed who thought rates had only one way to go at the beginning of the year and that was up.
Art Cashin: High-yield contagion fears rise as oil extends drop US 10 year at 2.11% the 52 week low is 1.91%
When will it hit 1%?
Germany, Spain, Italy, UK all lower then the US!