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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    @yugo So if I'm reading you right, after market close & account settles , your purchase shows & MM has been lowered by the cost of purchase?
    Thanks, Derf
    @Derf It depends on whether you are referring to Fidelity or Schwab.
    At Fidelity, this is basically how it works, though - unlike sweep cash MM funds or bank accounts - there is a separate automatic MM sale happening which you can track but conveniently do not have to bother placing. (Technically, once your buy order executes, Fidelity automatically places an offsetting MM sell trade. So, until the MM sell trade settles, you see a pending debit in your account for the trade amount which is then satisfied - usually after market closes but occasionally on the next day - by the proceeds from the MM sale.) Another nice feature - not listed anywhere that I've seen but confirmed - is that if you hold multiple eligible MM funds, Fidelity will sell the the lowest yielding one first but will not zero it out if MM fund has a large buy-in.
    At Schwab, it's a bit clunkier. They do not automatically make an offsetting trade. So, once your buy order goes through, they post a debit to the account which you have to satisfy by manually placing an offsetting MM sell order (or adding cash funds in other ways). This used to be a nice perk, since you could delay placing the MM sell order by a couple of days for a bit of extra yield, particularly if the trade was sufficiently sizable. With T+1 settlement this became less meaningful, but the hassle of having to place the MM sell trade manually - and to monitor GTC orders in case one of them executes - remains.
  • Crossing Bridge Q3 Commentary
    "As we have discussed in prior letters, valuations remain rich. High yield bonds’ yield advantage over investment grade bonds is at very low levels, reminiscent of the 2005-07 period."
    Also, CB's Nordic Core value positions (30 dollar-weighted) have YTW of 10.1%.
  • Short Term Bond Funds
    Maybe look into MYFRX. This is the institutional share class, and it has no transaction fee. I regard it as steady and comparable to RPHIX in returns (and better than RPHIX over the last 6 month, 1 year, and 2 year trailing returns). Alternatively, maybe consider the ETF MINT?
  • stock selling below bid?
    I have recently had a partial fill on a limit buy order. A few minutes later the same stock sold at a lower price than my limit (my order still being open). I called Fido and was told that "once a market maker has partially filled an order, it can move on to the next order and fill that - even at a lower price."
    When I asked whether I correctly understood that the same logic would apply to a hypothetical scenario where a market maker would be free to give me a partial fill on an order @ $100 and then sell a block within the amount still left on my order to a "favored client" @ $1 - the fellow on the trading desk said that this was exactly right and that the market maker would be free to do so... Any thoughts on whether this makes sense from a market and/or regulatory standpoint?
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    DB plans became too expensive to run. The benefits grew steadily, but the funds/portfolios supporting them didn't.
    Then, there were abuses.
    Companies could raid DB plans with excess funds, but not care when plans got underfunded. The nail in the coffin was when the rules were changed to require flowing some unfunded pension liabilities through company earnings. No wonder, companies would do anything to avoid the DB trap. Good luck to BA machinists.
    States also abused DB plans by skipping their required contribution, or funding it with borrowing but sticking the plans with debt servicing. State DB plans still exist, but they are supplemented or replaced by 401k/403b.
    People who miss DB plans can buy immediate-annuities (SPIA) that are basic, no-frill annuities that can be bought online (i.e. without high commissions). Realize that insurance company has to make money too, so the only way to come out ahead with SPIA is to live forever.
  • Short Term Bond Funds
    If M* can be trusted:
    WCPNX. ER = 0.65%
    -duration is out to 5.5 years, now. That smells more like intermediate-term.
    -risk, looking back 3 years: just 20 out of 100, on their proprietary scale.
    -LOW risk, HIGH returns.
    -zero in equities.
    0.97% in cash. So, fully invested.
    Weighted coupon =5.37.
    Securitized stuff in portfolio= 56.02% of total.
    gummint = 29.21%
    corporate = 13.77%
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/wcpnx/portfolio
    I own it, and am growing it. Since I got in several weeks ago, it's been dead. Maybe I should not be so patient, but the sadistics and ratings (not just at Morningstar) look attractive. It fits into the frame of what I've been wanting to initiate in my taxable.
  • Arkansas Lithium Deposits - USGS
    Indeed that is a good news. Here is a map from USGS on lithium deposit in US.
    https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2017/5118/sir20175118_element.php?el=3
    US is not a big producer of lithium, majority of lithium came from Chili and Argentina.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    That came as a surprise to me too. The latest offer included a one time upfront bonus of $7k and $5k deposit into 401(k). May be they will be offered an increase in this.
    Everyone wants their future guaranteed but not their own contributions. As we remember, UPS union received a handsome contract about 18 months ago but their service level has not improved. I would rate USPS about 10X over UPS service.
    Good luck indeed for DB plan.
    As to breaking up BA (on my wish list), evidently they are looking to sell their space business.
  • QE, QT, RRP... Understanding The Fed and The Market
    A lot to digest, but very interesting and worth understanding.
    The Federal Reserve has continued to unwind the buildup in its balance sheet. It accumulated a lot of Treasury debt and mortgage backed securities (MBS) during 4 separate rounds of quantitative easing (QE), and since early 2022 it has been letting those mature and roll off. That action is referred to as “quantitative tightening”, or QT.
    QT is a bearish force on the stock market, because it takes liquidity out of the banking system. But QT has been getting mitigated by something else the Fed is doing. Starting in 2021, the Fed began accepting a whole lot of “reverse repurchase agreements” or RRPs. An RRP involves a bank borrowing Treasuries from the Fed, to make its balance sheet look better. That bank pledges some of its loan book as collateral for the borrowed Treasuries. The effect of this on the stock market is that RRPs lock up money in the banking system so that this money is not available to do things like help lift stock prices. You can read the NY Fed's description of the process at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq
    source:
    McClellan Financial Publications
    reverse_repos_mitigate_feds_qt_campaign
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    Newmont (NEM) fell nearly 15% today on a weaker than expected earnings report if anyone is wondering what happened to GDX / gold miners.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    I've learned to expand my definition of alternative funds. I look at PVCMX as an alt fund in that it uses cash for defense - in a manner quite different from most other funds (thus the ALT view).
    Low SD of 5, with a 7.84% 5 yr return. It's worst quarter in 5 years was -(1.83%).
    I had purchased QQMNX recently as well, but that's it for market neutral funds. It will sit alongside HMEZX, RSIVX, WBALX, CBUDX, CBLDX. Low SD grinders that I hope get me close to 7% annually.
    Many true ALT funds are finicky.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    warning : the potential complexity of most gold ETFs is a mess for taxes.
    if not each year, then certainly the manual collection and calculation of data of all years past when you sell. repeat for each subsequent sell, and hope you did it roughly right. there is no hand-holding or even hints in turbotax.
    it is for this very reason i abandoned k1s in the past, and will never be adding new buys in this space.
    +1 / Sounds like it. Best held in tax exempt / tax sheltered accounts. As Yogi noted above the 28% tax on collectibles does not apply to etfs that invest only in mining companies.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    warning : the potential complexity of most gold ETFs is a mess for taxes.
    if not each year, then certainly the manual collection and calculation of data of all years past when you sell. repeat for each subsequent sell, and hope you did it roughly right. there is no hand-holding or even hints in turbotax.
    it is for this very reason i abandoned k1s in the past, and will never be adding new buys in this space.
  • Ruminating on Asset Allocation
    ”HM mentions most of us should be investing in low risk / low volatility debt that will return 7-10% going forward and provide a "fix outcome". Sounds good.
    Anyone have a list of such investments?

    @bee - You need to mail that request to Santa.
  • Ruminating on Asset Allocation
    from the memo:
    In my view, the thought process set forth in this memo leads to the conclusion that investors should increase their allocations in this area if they are (a) attracted by returns of 7-10% or so, (b) desirous of limiting uncertainty and volatility, and (c) willing to forgo upside potential beyond today’s yields to do so. For me, that should include a lot of investors, even if not everyone.
    My recommendation at this time is that investors do the research required to increase their allocation to credit, establish a “program” for doing so, and take a partial step to implement it. While today’s potential returns are attractive in the absolute, higher returns were available on credit a year or two ago, and we could see them again if markets come to be less ruled by optimism. I believe there will be such a time.
    HM mentions most of us should be investing in low risk / low volatility debt that will return 7-10% going forward and provide a "fix outcome". Sounds good.
    Anyone have a list of such investments?
  • Short Term Bond Funds
    @MikeM - exactly what I was going to say! Along with FLRN there's also FLOT. They're not quite indistinguishable, but pretty close.
    The knock against IG floating rate funds is that they don't do as well in falling interest rate environments. Or so I've read. And until this month (Oct) WCPNX was slightly outperforming them YTD, though not now.
    A question is what you are looking for. RPHYX/RPHIX may be unique in how it invests. This results in after-expense returns that are extremely steady and IMHO worth the cost. Funds like FLRN and FLOT invest more traditionally and have slightly higher volatility and slightly lower returns. They are still well within the ultra-short duration and volatility ranges.
    WCPNX is a traditional short term bond fund. As such, it can get jostled by market disruptions (see, e.g. 2022 and March 2020). The floating rate funds also got hit in March 2020, a market "blip" that affected pretty much everything. They held up nicely in 2022. Also, Schwab imposes a fee if you sell WCPNX within 90 days of purchase.
    So WCPNX is a good fund if you're anticipating holding it for awhile (at least a year), but perhaps there are better choices if you are looking very short term.
    Be advised that WCPNX changed name and strategy at the end of 2016. It had been Weitz Short-Intermediate Income Fund.
    Portfolio Visualizer comparison - RPHIX (benchmark), WEFIX, FLRN, FLOT
  • Short Term Bond Funds
    I believe RPHYX is no TF at Schwab, but that doesn't help you with the higher than normal ER (1.19%). I don't think to much about the ER since, even being on the high side, the risk reward is so good. FWIW, I've also held FLRN (SPDR Bloomberg Investment Grade Floating Rate) for years as a steady-eddy income fund, though this one has had a couple hiccups along the way.