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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Reestablished position in NSRGY / 25 shares @ 101.91 This thing is either deep value or a head-fake. Even received a “buy” wreck rec in Barron’s this week.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    PVCMX made about half of the SP500 for 5 years, so it's not alright. :-)
    Good established funds don't guarantee anything either, remember that over long time the SP500 beats most funds because it's formula is very efficient.
    So are you mainly invested in a S&P 500 index fund then?
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    PVCMX made about half of the SP500 for 5 years, so it's not alright. :-)
    Good established funds don't guarantee anything either, remember that over long time the SP500 beats most funds because it's formula is very efficient.
  • Capital Group (American Funds parent) getting into PE
    Wouldn't expect this from conservatively-run juggernaught Capital, but here they are. I hope these funds don't tarnish their reputation by getting too ... creative. (I hold several large long-long-loooong term positions in various of their equity funds)
    Per WSJ:
    Capital Group, the stock-picking juggernaut whose American Funds have been a staple in brokerage accounts for nearly a century, is tapping private-equity pioneer KKR to step into the lucrative world of private investments.
    Capital and KKR are planning a series of hybrid funds that will invest in both publicly and privately traded assets. The first two strategies, expected to launch next year, will hold about 60% in public bonds picked by Capital managers, and 40% in direct and asset-based loans sourced by KKR.
    The new funds will target mass-affluent clients, or those who invest between $100,000 and $1 million. These customers hold the biggest chunk of the assets in wealth accounts, and represent the next frontier for firms that manage alternative assets such as private companies, loans and real estate.
    Capital and KKR also intend to explore multiple flavors of hybrid funds—and private assets—in different markets around the world.

    < - >

    The plan marks one of Capital’s biggest forays into private assets since the 1970s when it helped start a venture-capital fund that would later emerge as Sequoia Capital. The money-management industry has changed dramatically since then, as trillions of dollars flowed into low-cost funds that track market indexes.
    For KKR, the partnership will help extend its reach beyond the ultrawealthy individuals and families who currently invest in its products through wealth managers and financial advisers.
    “Roughly 5% of U.S. households would meet that qualification,” Nuttall said. “There is this whole universe that we’re not getting close to touching.”
    Facing relentless pressure to lower their own fees, traditional stock and bond managers have turned to investing in alternatives. These investments still command higher fees, and are harder for index and exchange-traded funds to duplicate. The pitch for customers is a chance at market-beating returns.

    < - >
    https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/american-funds-parent-launching-partnership-with-kkr-to-move-into-private-assets-114430d0?mod=hp_lead_pos5
  • welcome to the discussion a/k/a help board for MFO's premium tools
    A very old thread!
    But I will ask a question here.
    Ulcer Index (UI by Martin) is prominently featured and often discussed at MFO; there was even a feature on it in the monthly MFO by @David_Snowball in May 2023. The typical definition of UI is over 14 days [e.g. StockCharts UI(14), Yahoo Finance Ulcer(14)]. Although MFO Definitions don't indicate the time period, I assume that it's also 14 days. So, it just indicates the most recent drawdown behavior and shouldn't really be compared with other longer period parameters SD, Sharpe Ratio, etc (typically over 3, 5, 10, 15 years).
    There is a related UPI that is a variation of Sharpe Ratio but its definitions vary - from just 14-days to averaging UI over longer periods.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/22/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/22/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (47.0%, high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (26.3%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (26.6%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +20.7% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (117+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (32+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth up, cyclicals down), bonds down, oil down, gold flat, dollar up. FOMC Minutes indicated higher rates for longer. Pending crypto FIT21 will make the CFTC the lead agency, not the SEC; Gensler is in near-panic. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1484/thread
  • foreign revenue, median EV
    Price!
    M* wanted twice as much, despite our non-profit status.
    But Lipper now Refinitiv now LSEG has raised the price of LGDF (Lipper Global Data Feed) by about 3-5% every year since circa 2018.
    If it continues, we will need to seek an alternative.
    c
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    Thanks for the replies. I have a BoA card that pays 5.25% for all online purchases and 3.5% for groceries. Costco Citi membership card which I also use for travel pays back 5% on gas and travel. For everything else (tax payment, health insurance, P&C insurance, etc.) have another BoA card that pays 2.62%. They all are Visa. I will not be getting another card (or an Apple card) unless it is better benefits than the 2.62% BoA card and potentially a master card. I do not have a mental bandwidth for more than 3 cards!
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Ok. That answers the question on comparison. It did alright on 3 and 5 yr comparisons but the difficulty is how does one know when the recent periods' underperformance is going to end. Same questions apply to all lagging active funds (e.g., MRFOX), which is why I am a fan of passive funds. If I look at the amount of time I spend on active funds and zero time on passive funds, to me active funds are not worth it, unless they fill a niche. Even then I question the merit.
    Having said that I would be OK with well established funds from well established shops like Fidelity, TRP, JPM, etc. Preferably stay within large / mid cap. I own a few and do not worry about them too much.
    Active, small shop, and small cap - that is too many layers of risk I would not advise for the anticipated marginal alpha and it does not move the needle unless you take the risk in size.
    If you want to trade funds, that is a different matter, and you can make money if trading is your thing and you may not have to worry about who the fund is from and what it has in it - all you care is disclosed price trend and hopefully, you will not be defrauded before you close your sleep OK size.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Investing in SC or anywhere else is your choice.
    When someone lags the most famous index in the world, the SP500, they pull out the DIVERSIFICATION card.
    Buffett said the following: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance". His second best idea is using the SP500.
    But, as you know, it does not always work, during 2000-10 the SP500 lost money for 10 years...and this is when you should when to hold them and when to fold them (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo)
    Mr C. is not alone, in 2008-9 Arnott with PAUIX looked like a hero and was interviewed everywhere claiming he got the secret formula for VALUATION. I bought PAUIX + the Intrepid fund managed by C.
    I sold both within months because valuation isn't an accurate indicator, never was, never will be...and markets can be irrational for a lot longer than you think. A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance.
    Many great experts made the same mistake, read (https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/13/wall-shame-worse-experts-predictions).
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    As a frequent Amazoner, the 5% is great. Its statement credit more than paid for a high-end Bosch dishwasher that I purchased locally a few years ago. I only use it for Amazon/Whole Foods but it serves as a 'backup' in my wallet since I'm mostly an Amex guy.
    Otherwise I just rack up points and double-points on my 2 AMEX cards.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Palm Valley lists the following:
    Inception 4/30/2019
    INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE (%) as of March 31, 2024
    ___________________ Quarter YTD 1 Year 3 Year Inception
    Palm Valley Capital Fund 1.04% 1.04% 7.38% 4.55% 7.55%
    S&P SmallCap 600 Index 2.46% 2.46% 15.93% 2.29% 8.47%
    Morningstar Small Cap Index 5.69% 5.69% 21.51% 2.68% 8.31%
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Nibbled on a 500s starter position in PBA, a Canadian pipeline. Will add lower as appropriate.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    You know what else puts this fund into perspective? The fact that it is more than 5 years old and has only attracted $273 million in assets. Maybe most people, like me, see the folly in paying a 1.26 expense ratio for a fund that routinely holds so much cash.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    MikeM " @FD1000, you seem to have an incredulous dislike for this manager and his fund."
    FD: There is no dislike here. I used to like PIMIX and had over 50% in it for years, but 0% since 01/2018.
    FAIRX: I owned it for about 8 years during 2000-10, and left it behind since then.
    I only like funds that make money. If they don't I switch I don't care how M* defines it.
    Remember, if Cinnamond is a great star why he hasn't managed the same fund for decades and increased the AUM to billions? Millions of investors have been looking for an edge and all missed it?
    The above is just an opinion, you can do what you like, it's your money.
    I already posted the goals from https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/goal
    Investing for Risk defined as losing money.
    Flexible mandate allows for patience (FD: that means, if we lag, don't blame us :-)
    No sector constraints
    Elevated career risk
    Independent; unique
    Fiduciary duty uninhibited
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    :) @FD1000, you seem to have an incredulous dislike for this manager and his fund.
    I think others in this thread have said they see this fund as a sleep-easy investment in small caps. If that is important to the investor, what's wrong with that? Why are you harping on it not beating the S&P 500?
    If PVCMX was called a conservative small-cap balanced fund, would that work better? That is more accurate for what the portfolio represents (13% equity, 37% bonds, 45% cash). When thought of as a balanced fund, maybe it's a category beater. It is doing better than the heralded new TRP/Giroux conservative balanced fund PRCFX (41% equity, 53% bonds, 6% cash)
    I think @WABAC said it earlier. This should not be labeled a SC fund. It has a different mandate. The manager doesn't categorize the fund. M* does -> incorrectly it appears.
    FWIW, I do not own the fund. I do own PRCFX, significantly.
  • Rick Rieder’s BCAT bounced 4% today.
    Saba filed today against NBH - Neuberger Berman Municipal Income. They have a big appetite. Are closed end funds obsolete in the era of ETF's. How do Blackrock or Eaton Vance option income funds compete with JEPI at 35 basis expense ratio.
    Note Fidelity just started trading in option income funds - FYEE & FHEQ with low expense ratios. Trading volume is low but will grow.
    We could see a large amount of closed end funds disappear.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    I get ads/mail from Duke energy monthly to get insurance to cover from the house to the street. I ignore them, house is 23yrs old. I never heard of many problems. How common is it to have problems from the house to the street. Crap, I have a river birch right above my water meter but the lines (water/sewer) run pretty deep in the ground. 5-10' deep.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I added to NAD and EVT in my taxable account...adding about 5% to each. Given their FI holdings, they will likely bump up when rates eventually recede along with 4.63% and 7.49% distribution respectively. In my IRA rollover I cashed out of RPMGX. 20 years ago I jumped through hoops to maintain this fund as I changed employer plans. I sold in order to gain additional fixed income exposure, currently sitting in SNVXX. I'm waiting for a pullback and then will initiate a new position in most likely an allocation fund...FMSDX and FPURX are in the mix at present.