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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi rjb112,
    Thanks for your comments.
    I am linking the details on the seasonal strategy that I have followed for a good many years.
    http://www.streetsmartreport.com/sts
    Call it a timming strategy if you like ... or call ... it a rebalance of sorts based upon the calendar. Old_Skeet
    Thanks Old_Skeet.
    So do you "sell in May and go away" according to the STS? Do you subscribe to both these newsletters and follow their advice?
    I don't recall you posting in the last several months that you "sold in May and went away"
    How have you been applying these 2 newsletters?
    rjb112 in Fund Discussions
  • 2014 estimated (preliminary) year end distributions
    The T. Rowe Price Small Cap Value qualified dividend percentage (as well as the qualified div percentage for other funds) look fishy to me. My understanding is that short term gains are not qualified - and so they can't be passed through by the fund as qualified dividends. But T. Rowe Price seems to be saying that this can happen.
    I'd like to think I'm wrong, and (some) short term gains will be treated as qualified dividends. I've asked this of T. Rowe price in a note I just sent:
    This question concerns year end distribution estimates.
    My understanding is that short term capital gains are distributed by a fund as ordinary dividends and are not qualified.
    For example, Dreyfus writes: "A mutual fund may flow through to its shareholders the qualified dividends it receives from its investment in equity securities. Dividends paid by the fund from interest income received and short-term capital gains will not qualify for the lower tax rates."
    https://public.dreyfus.com/accounts-services/tax-center/cap-gains-faqs.html
    The T. Rowe Price instructions for how to apply the qualified dividend estimate is to multiply the percentage given by the sum of the income dividends and the short term cap gains dividends (i.e. the ordinary dividends) for the fund.
    For Small Cap Value Fund, the figures are: 100% qualified, $0.27 income, $0.03 short term gains. How can 100% of the ordinary income dividends ($0.30) be qualified, when 10% of those dividends are short term gains? It seems you are saying that short term gains may be qualified dividends.
    Is there some rule that permits (under certain conditions) short term capital gains to be passed through as qualified dividends? Or is the estimated percentage of qualified dividends overly optimistic for this fund?
    Thank you.
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • 2014 estimated (preliminary) year end distributions
    Columbia Acorn Funds (9/30 update):
    https://www.columbiamanagement.com/content/columbia/pdf/2014_YE_CAP_GAIN_ESTIMATES_930.PDF
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • Grandeur Peak 3Q Commentary
    Surprised to see less than 14% of Grandeur Peak shareholders are Individuals/Retail investors...whereas nearly 80% are either institutional or advisors. Is this common?
    http://www.grandeurpeakglobal.com/documents/pdfs/grandeurpeakglobalopportunitiesfund-comm-20140930-1.pdf
    Roy in Fund Discussions
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi rjb112,
    Thanks for your comments.
    So far it looks as though it might come through as I anticipated as history tells us STS will work more times than not. However, there are many things that can take place for the rally to turn as you have stated above. Note though history tells me that the best time to be invested in the stock market is during the 4th quarter and 1st quarter of each year. With this, I just put in what I am expecting to get paid back out through anticipated capital gains distributions during the months of November and December. My gain, with this, will be what is made on the spiff between now and then. After that I'll be back to my starting equity allocation once the distributions have taken place plus or minus the gain and/or loss that might occur on my remaining invested principal.
    I am linking the details on the seasonal strategy that I have followed for a good many years. Again, note that it has worked for me more times than not and I felt my chances of it working now were greater, by my thinking, than it not working. There seems from what I have been recently reading and hearing that big money sold around the low of 1840 to 1820 during the recent plullback, perhaps this was due to margin calls as reported by some news outlets and now they are having to buy back in at higher levels pushing prices back upward. And, another ... I felt good corporate earnings would be coming through for the third quarter reporting and thus far they have. It has been my experience that earnings drive the markets.
    http://www.streetsmartreport.com/sts
    Call it a timming strategy if you like ... or call ... it a rebalance of sorts based upon the calendar. I am still within the confines of my asset allocation and from my thinking that makes me an investor rather than a trader as they seem to be all in or all out over short periods of time. So, call it what you like, either way, I am currently on the heavy side in my equity allocation.
    Old_Skeet
    Old_Skeet in Fund Discussions
  • Best L/S Fund
    @VintageFreak
    The same team manages TFSMX and TFSHX. Both of these funds have had underwhelming performances YTD, and over the past 1-year and 2-year periods, as well as since inception. Sure they are in troubled investment categories, but as absolute places to invest your hard-earned money, they are poor vehicles IMO. I would definitely prefer relatively low cost funds like VWIAX and PGDIX to lower the overall volatility of my portfolio.
    And I cannot stomach paying an actual expense ratio of 8.13% to own TFSMX. M* reports a meaningless expense ratio of 2.41% on the front page for this fund, which absolutely no investor in this fund pays. If most investors realized how much they were paying in expenses to own this fund, they would likely dump the fund.
    TFSSX is a solid fund, but I would actually prefer the much lower cost VSTCX in the SCB space.
    Kevin
    kevindow kevindow in Fund Discussions
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi Catch22 ...
    I used the decline in the Index's price line to add value and to enter into the spiff in time for the anticipated fall stock market rally. .....I made a guess as to how much these anticipated distributions would amount to and chose to position in while I felt prices in October would be more favorable than what they might be towards yearend; and, I fronted the money to make the purchases. I'll let the forthcoming anticipated capital gain distributions restore my cash allocation within my portfolio. Kind of clever ... Don't you think?
    In short, I felt prices would be more favorable in October than they might be in November, December, January, February and March ... and, I chose to go ahead and position in to hopefully catching the anticipated fall stock market rally that usually starts sometime towards the end of October and usually runs through the first quarter of the following year on and into its second quarter.
    Old_Skeet
    Old_Skeet, I'm very glad this worked out well for you. You realize this was a market timing decision. What made you so confident that prices would be more favorable now versus what you mentioned above, November thru March? For example, at this time in October, 2007, I don't believe that decision would have worked out well. Nor the year after, in October 2008. And you know there have been some nasty Octobers in the market, such as 1987 and maybe others, where this same decision would not have been good.
    Seems the market could just as easily have continued downward, due to unknowns such as Ebola, fears of deflation in Europe, issues in Japan, Hong Kong, fears of slowing in China, all that is happening globally from Ukraine to the middle east......to unemployment, less than robust recovery, you know the whole story......
    Anyway, a market timing decision. Looks like you got it right, but I haven't seen evidence that many can time the stock market well.
    I agree with what you said about forward earnings, forward P/E ratios looking reasonable. Have you seen the forward P/E on the Dow? Seems to me that buying the etf DIA is a reasonable choice. 30 quality stocks with an aggregate P/E less than 15. Of course, the bears like Hussman say that earnings have peaked, so the P/E is not accurate, because the "E" will be reverting to the mean. No, I'm not in Hussman's funds.
    rjb112 in Fund Discussions
  • Is it any wonder why CNBC is irrelevant
    I actually like frequent CNBC contributor Dennis Gartman less than I do Cramer.
    Gartman's two calls for stocks to move lower over the past few weeks have been the moment the markets reversed.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    I happened to hear the sell signal he gave earlier this year on CNBC. Amazing how he got it just wrong. And now this one on Oct. 16th. Amazingly bad timing. His subscribers pay a lot to get his advice. They have lost a lot of money getting out at the low, being out for the rebound, and paying a lot of capital gains taxes to boot, on any previously unrealized gains they had.
    rjb112 in Fund Discussions
  • Is it any wonder why CNBC is irrelevant
    I am surprised that using Gartman as a contrarian indicator seems to keep working. At some point, there must be a reversion to the mean! :-)
    I actually like frequent CNBC contributor Dennis Gartman less than I do Cramer.
    Gartman's two calls for stocks to move lower over the past few weeks have been the moment the markets reversed.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/why-stocks-are-soaring
    Charted:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/10/20141021_gart.jpg
    Last week one of our own here said short the heck out of the airlines among others shorts. They have more than soared since. Just goes to show what happens when you invest or trade based on the headlines (Ebola) Not ragging on this perennial pessimist as I am certainly not exempt from making bonehead calls too.
    Junkster Junkster in Fund Discussions
  • Is it any wonder why CNBC is irrelevant
    I am surprised that using Gartman as a contrarian indicator seems to keep working. At some point, there must be a reversion to the mean! :-)
    I actually like frequent CNBC contributor Dennis Gartman less than I do Cramer.
    Gartman's two calls for stocks to move lower over the past few weeks have been the moment the markets reversed.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/why-stocks-are-soaring
    Charted:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/10/20141021_gart.jpg
    BWG in Fund Discussions
  • Is it any wonder why CNBC is irrelevant
    I actually like frequent CNBC contributor Dennis Gartman less than I do Cramer.
    Gartman's two calls for stocks to move lower over the past few weeks have been the moment the markets reversed.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/why-stocks-are-soaring
    Charted:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/10/20141021_gart.jpg
    scott in Fund Discussions
  • Is it any wonder why CNBC is irrelevant
    Financial TV?
    All useless I agree. At times, however, it may drown-out other noises like traffic going by, planes flying over, kids shouting and trash collectors. I get a laugh out of Cramer in the morning - same as I do out of Stewart and Cobert in the evening. But would never listen to any of them for investment advice.
    For serious down-time: (1) subscribe to any number of wonderful domestic/international magazines, newspapers or blogs at Amazon, (2) get yourself a set of good bluetooth headphones ($200+) also at Amazon. (3) Load favorite music and reading content onto any number of great tablet devices (I like the Fire HD). ENJOY!
    ---
    What's available to read using the free Kindle App?
    You name it. The International NYT is $15 a month and gets delivered around 8PM EST - so you get that day's news. the regular NYT is about $20, but has a Sunday edition which the other does not.
    Barron's and WSJ - but too pricy for my taste.
    The New Yorker every Monday if you want some culture.
    The SF Chronicle at $6 a month is a steal and publishes 7 days a week
    Humor? Subscribe to The Onion.
    The Smithsonian publishes two magazines. I subscribe to the one on Aviation which is excellent. Their other publication deals more with archeology and geography.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Emerging Market Maker
    FYI: Neat little interactive tool to play with some aspects of overseas investing by comparing emerging markets across key metrics:
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/10/emerging-market-maker/print/
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • 2014 estimated (preliminary) year end distributions
    Ivy Funds
    https://www.ivyfunds.com/sites/default/files/Ivy_Fund_2014_Capital_Gain_Distribution_Estimates.pdf
    Waddell & Reed Funds
    http://www.waddell.com/NetCommon/MutualFunds/pdf/cap_gain_estimates_wra.pdf
    AllianceBernstein Funds
    https://www.alliancebernstein.com/abcom/Segment_Homepages/Investments/US/Resources/Content/PDFs/tax_center/2014EstCapGainsDist.pdf?uuid=e7f088cc-554b-11e4-9444-95c2d42715d2
    Oppenheimer Funds
    https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/doc/2014_Capital_Gains_Estimates_and_Distribution_Calendar.pdf
    TheShadow TheShadow in Fund Discussions
  • Berkowitz, Lampert, Sears, Primark Stores and more
    Sears stock price has recovered a bit, as has FAIRX.
    In a separate announcement that sent Sears shares soaring 23 percent, the Chicago-based retailer said it will raise as much as $625 million through an offering of 8 percent senior notes and warrants, easing worries about the retailer’s balance sheet.
    I wonder if 8% is enough to compensate investors who buy these senior notes for the risk that they are taking. Or is this the new normal in today's low interest rate environment?
    Sears news from the NY Post
    Meh. 8% is not all that appealing, when there's any number of pfd's for healthier companies yielding 6-7% and offering lower risk. CHS pfd's yielding 6.75-7% and those barely budged that much in 2008.
    scott in Fund Discussions
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi Catch22 ...
    Thanks for your question.
    I reference the below link for certain P/E Ratio details on the S&P 500 Index.
    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=wsj_mdc_additional_ustocks
    Notice the continued positive outlook for forward earnings ... this, to me, is a fundmanetal and not a technical. It was the large part of my thinking process to increase equity positions within my portfolio.
    I used the decline in the Index's price line to add value and to enter into the spiff in time for the anticipated fall stock market rally. In Novemeber and December many of my mutual funds will be making large capital gain distributions and some of them as high as eight percent, or more. I made a guess as to how much these anticipated distributions would amount to and chose to position in while I felt prices in October would be more favorable than what they might be towards yearend; and, I fronted the money to make the purchases. I'll let the forthcoming anticipated capital gain distributions restore my cash allocation within my portfolio. Kind of clever ... Don't you think?
    In short, I felt prices would be more favorable in October than they might be in November, December, January, February and March ... and, I chose to go ahead and position in to hopefully catching the anticipated fall stock market rally that usually starts sometime towards the end of October and usually runs through the first quarter of the following year on and into its second quarter.
    In addition, as an investor, I'll will remian invested within my portfolio's asset allocation ranges. These ranges follow: Cash Area (5% to 25%) ... Income Area (20% to 40%) ... Growth & Income Area (30% to 50%) ... and, the Growth Area (10% to 20%). With this, my allocation to equities can range for a low of about 40% to a high of about 70% and my allocation to debt securities, which include cash, can range form a low of 30% to a high of 60% within my portfolio. All asset areas can not be at their low, or high, percentage mark at the same time.
    Old_Skeet
    Old_Skeet in Fund Discussions
  • Catching falling knives
    Thanks for the update Skeet:
    It's clear you have a well thought out plan and adhere to it. That kind of planning and persistency of approach seems to me more important to long term success than any particular "sacred cow" investment cliche. Hopefully, none here were driven to login to their equity accounts last week and hit the "Sell All" button in a moment of panic.
    There are many other thought provoking and colorful investing cliches in addition to the falling knives one.
    Here's "The 64 Biggest Investing Cliches to Sound Like a Pundit" (courtesy of Forbes).
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/06/28/the-64-biggest-investing-cliches-to-sound-like-a-pundit/
    A few of my favorites from the list:
    --- Buy low. Sell high.
    --- Buy only what you understand.
    --- Be fearful when everyone else is greedy, and greedy when everyone else is fearful.
    --- When the tide goes out we know who's been swimming naked.
    --- Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
    Regards
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Is it any wonder why CNBC is irrelevant
    The article was posted 19 hours ago. Ya think somebody should tell them?
    JohnChisum in Fund Discussions
  • Catching falling knives
    I thought I'd update the board on the special investment position (spiff) I made in what turned out to be a downdraft in the S&P 500 Index as it did pull back about ten per cent from its recent high of about 2020 to a recent low in the 1820 range. As I write, the Index is selling for about 1920 and my spiff is now in the money. Should the Index reach 2100 as forecast by some for its yearend close then this will result in better than a ten percent return for this spiff. If for some reason this turns on me I'll be collecting a good yield and time is on my side for this spiff to work as I am an investor rather than a trader although I have, at times, sold off some of my spiffs once they have reached a targeted goal or to rebalance my portfolio.
    Although some may say I averaged down in opening this spiff I don't look at this in that light. I view it as I will have, in the end, invested market derived money back into certain investments that were selling at discounted prices at the time they were purchased. I ventured into this special spiff based more on market fundamentals rather than its technical’s. Investors govern more by market fundamentals over market technical’s but may use technical’s to aid in positioning their new entries while traders seem to govern more by price line action and technical’s to enter and exit positions.
    Please don't take this as an Old_Skeet vs. Junkster debate but it is intended, by me, to expand and to better explain the difference of the two very different styles. No doubt, Junkster has had good success ... but, so have I as a long term investor. I truly believe we can learn form each other by exploring each others success and failures and studying the thinking in making these ventures. For me, it is indeed good to have Junkster post his thinking. And, although I have had success thus far this year he was right on spot with his call on muni high yield. Indeed, he has trounced another trader that I follow, to see what he is doing and thinking, and that is the Moose.
    Thanks Junkster for the continued posting of your thinking. It is much appreciated.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
    Old_Skeet in Fund Discussions
  • Is it any wonder why CNBC is irrelevant
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102102875?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=102102875#.
    I always thought Bogle was a Vanguard kinda guy
    Mark Mark in Fund Discussions