Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fairholme's Public Conference Call Today - Summary
    A while back I looked at Fairholme's numbers in a little study called "What a Difference a Decade Makes."
    It's a bit dated, but it may be of interest since I think it supports Junkster's contention:
    "Volatility is needed to prosper."
    Wrong, wrong, and wrong!
    The lack of volatility during Fairholme's first decade, while still delivering strong returns, is precisely what made it so appealing to so many.
    And, to Scott's point, on when BB may have turned. I believe it was 2011 and he went all financials.
    He got hammered that year.
    "Premature accumulation," he called it.
    He was right ultimately to focus on financials ... all of them.
    But he was out-of-step with shareholder expectations. And so, the redemptions.
    Do you think that it was growth in AUM that forced him into higher volatility situations, perhaps the only way to retain the alpha he delivered in the first decade? But if so, why does FAAFX exhibit similarly high volatility?
    Maybe he feels the investing environment has changed, fundamentally, and those days of finding superior gains with lower volatility are no more?
    I've gotten used to the volatility and remain long and heavy FAAFX. I've owned it pretty much from inception (no pity please...I hate that), lived through the MBNA gyrations ... and now the Fannie/Freddie and SHLD gyrations.
    Lost confidence? Never in his ability to seek deep value and articulate his reasons. His rationale generally seems sound to me. No, no loss of confidence.
    He's disappointed me a couple times. The open/closed/open door stuff seemed silly. He was premature to sell MBNA, but he made a small fortune on it with FOCIX. And, the Charlie Fernandez fiasco.
    I've done very well following his early advice on BAC and in holding FAIRX through most of last decade.
    Now, I just keep my FAAFX holding out of sight ... one of the few I try not to fuss. Hmmm, come to think of it, I don't fuss SIGIX or DODGX much either (unless the latter falls below 10-mo SMA =)).
  • Greek Debt Worries Send Europe ETFs On Late-Day Slide
    Coming Tomorrow
    ECB cancels soft treatment of Greek debt in warning to Athens
    BY JOHN O'DONNELL AND JAN STRUPCZEWSKI
    FRANKFURT/BRUSSELS Wed Feb 4, 2015 7:18pm EST
    However a document prepared by Germany for a meeting of EU finance officials on Thursday made clear Berlin want Athens to go back on promises to raise the minimum wage, halt unpopular sales of national assets, rehire fired public sector workers and reinstate a Christmas bonus for poor pensioners.
    "The Eurogroup needs a clear and front-loaded commitment by Greece to ensure full implementation of key reform measures necessary to keep the program on track," the document, seen by Reuters, said in reference to euro zone finance ministers.
    "The aim is the perpetuation of the agreed reform agenda (no roll back of measures), covering major areas as the revenue administration, taxation, public financial management, privatization, public administration, health care, pensions, social welfare, education and the fight against corruption."
    The new Greek leaders have had a cool reception even in left-leaning countries such as France and Italy which Athens had hoped would support its case for debt relief.
    French President Francois Hollande said the euro zone's rules applied to everyone.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/05/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0L81FH20150205
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    @Mona
    Your frequent conversations with fund managers, while commendable, raises one concern - being related to the following: As I understand it, open-ended mutual funds are required by a 2004 SEC amendment to existing policy to publicly disclose their portfolio holdings quarterly. This rule replaced an older one requiring semi-annual reporting of holdings. Most fund companies argued strenuously against the adoption of more frequent reporting during the period of public debate, arguing among other things that (1) The new policy increased the likelihood of "front-running" of mutual fund sales and purchases and (2) It promoted "load riding" whereby investors could replicate a fund's holdings without having paid for the research costs.
    The first link is to a 2001 position paper by the Investment Company Institute stating their reasons for opposing more frequent disclosure. They lost the battle, but I still find their logic interesting and somewhat compelling. http://www.ici.org/pdf/per07-03.pdf
    The second link is to the actual SEC Policy adapted in 2004. As far as I know, it is still in effect.
    http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2004-16.htm
    Virtually all mutual fund companies have written policy governing disclosure of portfolio holdings. These appear quite stringent. The following (inked) one from Dreyfus allows a manager (or his designee) to reveal the following to non company affilliated persons ONLY If the information has already been previously disseminated to the publuic:
    "...Top ten holdings and the total percentage of the Fund such aggregate holdings represent ... Sector information and the total percentage of the Fund held in each sector ... Any other analytical data that does not identify any specific portfolio holding"
    Violations of policy must be reported to the company's Chief Compliance Officer.
    https://public.dreyfus.com/policies-information/holdings-disclosure.html
    What I'm wondering is what you can learn from speaking to a fund manager that isn't already public knowledge available on the fund's website, in their annual and semi-annual reports, or in their SEC required quarterly disclosures? I like to suppose that if I phoned Dodge and Cox one of their managers would talk with me. (I'd thank them for making me a lot of money over the years.) However, if he/she revealed to me that they were considering adding to their position in Company X sometime in the next few weeks, I'd be a bit alarmed. I'd wonder who else had already been tipped-off about the impending purchase and whether the stock's price had already been driven higher as a result of this advance knowledge.
    Just some thoughts on this whole issue of calling up fund managers.
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    @Mona: PDI has recently suffered from the non-investment grade spread widening (as did all HY), but also from being hedged duration - as long treasuries ripped.

    Hi fundalarm,
    And Bill has been selling a few shares. Guess he needs some extra change.
    http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1201891.htm#A
    Best Regards,
    Mona
  • Greek Debt Worries Send Europe ETFs On Late-Day Slide
    FYI: Late-day worries about Greek debt axed European stock exchange-traded funds in Wednesday’s final minutes of trading.
    Selling also bled into the U.S. market.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/02/04/greek-debt-worries-send-europe-etfs-on-late-day-slide/tab/print/
  • Fairholme's Public Conference Call Today - Summary
    >> Who has beaten that? [15y]
    Yeah, not many. Tillinghast and Soviero at Fidelity (FLVCX has not been around the full 15y, a month or so less). CGMFX beats all hugely, but not for shorter spans except for selected. I will have to compare UIs for these four. I imagine investor returns for all three other than FLPSX have been grim because 'stay the course' has been so difficult and unlikely.
  • Global Real Estate Fund Suggestions
    Russell Fundamental Global Select Real Estate Index
    TOTAL RETURNS AS OF FEBRUARY 03, 2015
    DAILY MTD YTD 1YR 3YR 5YR 10YR
    0.58 0.82 4.96 23.97 15.71 15.57 10.34
    http://www.russell.com/indexes/americas/indexes/fact-sheet.page?ic=D54907
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    @Mona I am fascinated that you call the fund companies on a regular basis. Do you have typical questions? I am curious as to what subjects you cover with them. Do you really berating them for not bettering their benchmarks? Sounds like a good method for stress relief! Do they have issues with answering questions not already in public documents (ex. SAI, Quarterly Reports)?
    Hi Maurice,
    No, I do not berate the folks at Artisan. But when I am paying good money (ER 1.19%) for a fund such as ARTQX, I do want to know their thoughts as why the fund continues to under-perform the Russell Midcap Value Index and Russell Midcap Index (the fund uses both benchmarks).
    When we get beyond talking about the Green Bay Packers, I try to determine a number of things to aid me in making an informed decision as to if I want to fire them or have reasons to remain in the fund. Some include:
    1. I have seen Morningstar report changes in volatility measures. I would like to know if they agree and if so, the causes.
    2. I would like to know if there has been recent changes in the top 10 holdings, especially because ARTQX has a concentrated portfolio (normally around 55 holdings) and the top 10 usually comprise about 30% of the portfolio.
    3. I would like their opinion on the specific sector(s) attributing to the under performance (the individual stocks I can follow).
    4. Historically ARTQX turnover ratio has been low for an actively managed fund (mid 20% range). I try to find out if they project this to stay the same, increase or decrease. I try to deduce if they are making changes or sticking with the holdings they believe continue to have attractive valuations.
    5. The fund has some exposure to large cap and small cap stocks. I would like to know where the portfolio managers believe the best valuations currently exist.
    Other topics come up, both quantitative and qualitative, but the point is I am am trying to find out the current thinking of the portfolio managers. Many times I do not get pinpoint answers, which probably relates to SEC issues. However, I do walk away with more than I brought to the table. And as upset as I sometimes get, Artisan is a "boutique" house, and my experience is that they appreciate and value dialogue with a shareholder. No, I do not bang my hand on the table ;-)
    All the dated quantitative information is certainly in public documents such as their Statuary Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, Statement of Additional Information, and their Semiannual and Annual Reports. I am searching for recent changes and current thinking.
    Best Regards,
    Mona
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Turn Lower In Final Minutes On Greece News
    Euro and European stock ETFs head south as ECB pulls plug on Greek debt
    Feb 4 2015, 16:01 ET | By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor
    The ECB pulled its waiver which previously had allowed Greek sovereign paper to be used as borrowing collateral despite its sorry credit status. GREK -10.4%, NBG -7.1% in the regular session.
    ...withdrew a waiver which had allowed the use of Greek government paper as collateral for borrowing despite its low credit rating.
    European markets are closed, but the Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ -2.1%) - trading in New York - takes a tumble. Others of note: Spain (EWP -2.7%), Italy (EWI -2.6%), France (EWQ -1.8%), Germany (EWG -1.6%), U.K. (EWU -0.9%)
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2272666-euro-and-european-stock-etfs-head-south-as-ecb-pulls-plug-on-greek-debt
    Earlier
    Turkey tumbles as government takes over Bank Asya
    Feb 4 2015, 12:38 ET | By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor
    ..(it's)about preventing the lender's failure, while others hurl accusations of political meddling."This operation is very much linked to a personal grudge and it goes down very badly with investor communities
    http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TUR
    @catch22 A couple of week's ago I posted a couple of reads from Foreign Policy, here is another with a more populist/Keynesian bent.
    ARGUMENT
    Welcome to the Backlash Era, Europe
    From Greece to Spain to France, radical parties are making gains. And the Eurocrats have no one to blame but themselves.BY PHILIPPE LEGRAIN FEBRUARY 3, 2015 Philippe Legrain, who was economic advisor to the president of the European Commission from 2011 to 2014, is a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics’
    Podemos (the party’s name means “We Can” in Spanish) filled the streets of Madrid on Jan. 31 to protest against austerity, crushing debts, and the country’s corrupt political system — and demand change. The demonstrators don’t represent a fringe group, either. Podemos is leading in the polls, ahead of both the mainstream center-left and center-right parties in elections that will be held by the end of the year.
    But the likes of Podemos are also right about important things. At a time when households, companies, and banks are all trying to reduce their debts at once, austerity leads to stagnation and suffering, not “stability,” as eurozone leaders claim. Budget cuts and tax increases have often fallen on the poor and vulnerable, not the politically connected rich. The political class in many countries is corrupt and in the pockets of vested interests, not least the banks.
    More broadly, it is neither feasible nor fair for debtors to bear the full costs of the financial crisis. For every reckless borrower there is a reckless lender. In the eurozone’s case, those were primarily German and French banks, which lent vast sums to southern Europe, both directly and via local banks. While the bailouts of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain are portrayed as gestures of EU solidarity, they were in fact covert bailouts of those foreign banks that would otherwise have suffered huge losses on their reckless lending. Southern Europe’s huge debt burden — primarily private in Spain, mostly public in Greece — is stifling the economy and is unpayable in full.
    Outside the eurozone, many sensible people of all stripes would agree with it. The tragedy of the eurozone is that the policy establishment in Brussels and national elites are destroying political support for the European project by advancing Germany’s selfish and destructive agenda as a creditor. With luck, they will change course before it is too late. After all, while Syriza and Podemos want to make the eurozone fairer, the far right wants to destroy the EU altogether. Europe urgently needs mainstream alternatives to Merkelism — or it risks a President Le Pen.
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/03/welcome-to-the-backlash-era-europe-podemos-syriza-elections/
  • International mutual funds
    @Ted: Thanks for the link. While there, I found this:
    Foreign Small/Mid Value
    #1: Pear Tree Polaris Foreign Value Small Cap Fund (QUSIX)
    If you missed it, here's David's take on this fund.
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Turn Lower In Final Minutes On Greece News
    the market reversed on this from ECB re Greek collateral:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-04/ecb-shuts-off-direct-funds-to-greece-as-reform-progress-in-doubt
    @Ted
    Thanks. And this Wednesday morning; all was well with the Greek's on tour, visiting several Euro heads. I did see the big swings with crude oil and thought perhaps this was the market down story.
    I've been working outside. After I thaw, I will have to catch the latest news.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Barry Ritholtz: The Unloved Treasury Rally
    FYI: Some day interest rates will go up. Until then the Treasury bears are missing one of the greatest bond rallies in history.” -- Jim Bianco, Bianco Research
    Since 2015 began, everyone has been fixated on the U.S. dollar and oil prices. I want to direct your attention to what may be the greatest show now playing in financial markets: The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-04/the-unloved-treasury-rally
    Enlarged Graphic: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/total-30-year-return.jpg
  • For Investors Seeing Bond Yields Slip, Munis Offer Solid Alternative
    Virtually all of my bond exposure (32%) is in long term munis which were inherited , all rated at least AA by S + P, first call date is June 2016. I assume they will be called, too bad, they are paying an average of 4.3%. I have a small holding in OSTIX, but glad I don't have to be be looking at bond funds right now.
  • Can't Find Draft of Message
    @BenWP
    Along the left edge of this page, under the "big blue" icon named "Start New Discussion" you should find several other areas listed below this, including one named, My Drafts. If you have a draft that did save properly, you should see a "1" to the right of My Drafts.
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    2-3-15
    0.00 RSIVX - RiverPark Strategic Income
    0.33 PONDX - PIMCO Income
    Dr. Dave,
    While only one day, this is a rather large percentage difference between two "Multisector Bond Funds" that you feel should be compared to each other.
    Since I see by your post that you fully embraced and learned from fundalarm's, would you tell us why RSIVX was flat on the day and PONDX was up 1/3rd of a percent?
    Hint: Look under the hood.
  • For Investors Seeing Bond Yields Slip, Munis Offer Solid Alternative
    FYI: Strategy: Be greedy when other muni bond investors get fearful and don't worry when Treasury yields begin to pick up.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150204/FREE/150209975?template=printart
  • Fairholme's Public Conference Call Today - Summary
    Berkowitz has proven himself an impressive and intelligent investor overall, but I think where things ran into significant trouble was after the financial crisis. Fairholme has always run a concentrated portfolio, but it got - I think - concentrated to the point of absurdity, with nearly half the portfolio in AIG. The bet on St Joe was matched on the opposite side by a notable short position by David Einhorn, who - so far - has been proven right. I believe Einhorn was still short it recently.
    The Sears story? I've been a vocal opponent of the long story, as well and have gone into reasoning countless times before. Fairholme was buying Sears above $100. Is there more value in Sears than the current stock price? Perhaps, but there's no way the stock will see $100+. There's just way too much retail real estate, with Sears and tons of other retailers looking to offload real estate into a buyer's market. The REIT spin-off? No thanks and I just don't see the demand being there.
    I really am starting to think a group of managers got sucked into the Eddie Lampert story ("It's the next Berkshire!") and are now finding out it wasn't what they thought. If it was such a tremendous story, the market wouldn't seem to disagree so much and for so long. Yeah yeah, ignore the crowds - but sometimes the crowds are right.
    The thing that continues to get me was a Kiplinger's article with Berkowitz in 2009 where he talked about if he doesn't understand something, he walks away in reference to things like AIG's derivatives. Then shortly after he loads up?
    There's also the Fannie/Freddie bet that's gone sour although he continues to fight the government. Good luck with that.
    Financials have done (at least at last glance) worse than energy this year, which hasn't helped BAC/AIG.
    And yes, Biotech has beaten a lot of things (and I think it probably will continue to do well and now it's starting to pay dividends (Gilead announcing their first dividend yesterday, Amgen increasing dividend with next payout.) I certainly see more tailwinds then headwinds for healthcare in general going forward.
    As for Fairholme:
    "Believes current shareholders know what to expect and are in it for the long term, five years or more."
    LOL. They'll run to something else if things don't get any better without a second thought.
  • Don Hodges passed away
    http://www.dallasnews.com/obituary-headlines/20150122-don-hodges-80-co-founder-of-dallas-mutual-fund-firm.ece
    Hodges used to have an investment minimum of $250 at FIDO, but it looks to no longer be the case. Is that something that Fido has done bc it is an NTF fund?