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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    Oil change schedules depend on the model of car and type of oil (regular vs synthetic). Many imports/foreign brands have longer oil change schedules and use lighter oil (0W20, not common 10W30). Oil life meters (in newer cars) are estimates based on miles driven, number of starts/stops, etc. If my oil life meter is below 30%, I start to think about oil change (it' s usually time) - I don't let it go to 0%. Low-Oil indicator is a serious warning - just drive to the nearest gas station or call a tow truck.
    Car manuals indicate schedules for normal and severe driving. Many don't realize that low-mile, stop-and-go driving is actually severe driving. Engine doesn't get warmed up enough to burn up the condensation, and moisture accumulates in the oil pan (some start overflowing) - as the saying goes, oil and water don't mix, and in the crankcase, there is lot of stirring/churning. That is why schedules indicate miles or months. Regular oil also degrades with time, less so for synthetic oil.
    Oil changes have other benefits. The shop may alert one to various leaks, rusting emission system, poor tires, etc. Moreover, not following oil change schedule can void car warranty (so, keep receipts so long as the car is under warranty).
    https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a26590646/how-often-to-change-oil/
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    "I don't need to mention the whole thing each time."
    I've never seen you "mention the whole thing."
    You stated "diversification is a protection against ignorance" omitting everything else.
    "It is not ridiculous to compare every stock fund to the SP500 or VTI which is the standard and most held."
    Regardless of your thoughts on this subject, it doesn't make much sense to benchmark certain funds
    (e.g., small-cap value, EM equity, small-cap foreign, etc.) against the S&P 500.
    "Your portfolio lags and why you don't agree."
    Your statement is presumptuous since you don't know how my portfolio is constructed.
    BTW, I agree that S&P 500 index funds are good investment vehicles.
    "Since 2010, I have posted on several sites why LC tilting growth (SP500 is an easy choice) is where you want to be."
    I've witnessed the following over the past 5 years or so.
    You stipulated investors should have just owned an S&P 500 index fund or QQQ over the past xx years.
    Looking in the investment rear-view mirror, this "analysis" is not very insightful or beneficial.
    Past performance is no guarantee of future results...
    This pablum included in numerous corresponding posts, frankly, is rather tiresome.
    "And why a manager is as good as his/her last 6-12 months? this is how you avoid funds that lag for years and what I have done now since 2000."
    As was mentioned previously, even the very best active fund managers will suffer bouts of underperformance. How did you determine 6 - 12 months is an appropriate evaluation period?
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    I d
    Investing in SC or anywhere else is your choice.
    When someone lags the most famous index in the world, the SP500, they pull out the DIVERSIFICATION card.
    Buffett said the following: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance".
    [snip]
    A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance.
    [snip]

    There you go again - quoting Buffett out of context!
    Warren Buffett talking to MBA students:
    "If you are not a professional investor; if your goal is not to manage in such a way that you
    get a significantly better return than the world, then I believe in extreme diversification.
    I believe that 98 or 99 percent —maybe more than 99 percent—
    of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.

    That leads them to an index fund with very low costs.
    All they’re going to do is own a part of America.
    They’ve made a decision that owning a part of America is worthwhile.
    I don’t quarrel with that at all. That is the way they should approach it."

    financinglife.org/learn-how-to-invest/warren-buffett-on-diversification/
    S&P 500 index funds have proven to be good long-term investments.
    However, it's ridiculous to benchmark all funds against the S&P 500 regardless of investment styles
    and objectives. It's interesting when someone who invests in a way which is diametrically opposed
    to Mr. Buffett's approach periodically "quotes" Buffett nonetheless.
    I strongly disagree that "A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance."
    Even the very best fund managers will underperform from time to time.
    Should investors move in/out of funds based on short-term performance?
    These actions often lead to excessive trading and inferior returns¹.
    Numerous studies have indicated frequent trading is hazardous to one's wealth.
    ¹ Skilled traders can generate excellent returns. They are few and far in between.
    I don't need to mention the whole thing each time. I have said hundreds of times seen that that Buffet said "Diversification is a protection against ignorance" and his second choice is the SP500.
    It is not ridiculous to compare every stock fund to the SP500 or VTI which is the standard and most held. Your portfolio lags and why you don't agree.
    Since 2010, I have posted on several sites why LC tilting growth (SP500 is an easy choice) is where you want to be. Every year you hear from many experts and posters why not EM, SC, value? valuation is great...and almost every year their portfolio lags.
    And why a manager is as good as his/her last 6-12 months? this is how you avoid funds that lag for years and what I have done now since 2000.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold SCHD out of the taxable today. Realized a tax loss of about $7.50 after several purchases since November 2021. Yippee yai kai yea, get along little doggies.
    The money will be reinvested in FDVV. The D/E ratio for SCHD is 3.36 and 1.50 for FDVV.
    The taxable has been slightly under-invested by my lights, so I will be starting a position in SPHQ, and buffing up some other positions. The D/E ratio for SPHQ is .83.
    Yes, there is a theme here. :).
    Selling today. Shopping next week.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    Regardless of mileage, engine oil should probably be changed at least once per year.
    Can I change oil every two years?
    "No. Almost no automaker recommends that oil should be left in the crankcase for more than one year—no matter the mileage."
    https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a26590646/how-often-to-change-oil/
    "It’s not just about miles: If you don’t drive your car a lot, your oil still needs to be kept fresh. Even if you drive fewer miles each year than your automaker suggests for changing the oil (say, 6,000 miles, with suggested oil-change intervals at 7,500 miles), you should still be getting that oil changed twice a year.
    Why? Oil becomes less effective as it ages, and by not getting the engine warm enough, excess moisture that forms in the engine will not be removed, which can lead to shorter engine life."
    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-maintenance/things-to-know-about-oil-changes-for-your-car-a9532249359/
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Investing in SC or anywhere else is your choice.
    When someone lags the most famous index in the world, the SP500, they pull out the DIVERSIFICATION card.
    Buffett said the following: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance".
    [snip]
    A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance.
    [snip]

    There you go again - quoting Buffett out of context!
    Warren Buffett talking to MBA students:
    "If you are not a professional investor; if your goal is not to manage in such a way that you
    get a significantly better return than the world, then I believe in extreme diversification.
    I believe that 98 or 99 percent —maybe more than 99 percent—
    of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.

    That leads them to an index fund with very low costs.
    All they’re going to do is own a part of America.
    They’ve made a decision that owning a part of America is worthwhile.
    I don’t quarrel with that at all. That is the way they should approach it."

    financinglife.org/learn-how-to-invest/warren-buffett-on-diversification/
    S&P 500 index funds have proven to be good long-term investments.
    However, it's ridiculous to benchmark all funds against the S&P 500 regardless of investment styles
    and objectives. It's interesting when someone who invests in a way which is diametrically opposed
    to Mr. Buffett's approach periodically "quotes" Buffett nonetheless.
    I strongly disagree that "A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance."
    Even the very best fund managers will underperform from time to time.
    Should investors move in/out of funds based on short-term performance?
    These actions often lead to excessive trading and inferior returns¹.
    Numerous studies have indicated frequent trading is hazardous to one's wealth.
    ¹ Skilled traders can generate excellent returns. They are few and far in between.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    @msf, I do not travel or drive much, even when I was working, though my job allowed one to live on planes. I drive so little that I have not changed oil in my car in 5 years. I bought a few plane tickets on the Costco Citi card in the past year. I misspoke about 5%; it was 4%; I have to carry the Costco Citi card as it works as a Costco membership card. I forgot which cards dropped CDW coverage; hopefully I will remember to check next time I need it but my car insurance covers CDW on rentals. I try not to use more than 2 CC of my own in a month as I am asked to manage other family members’ affairs.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    I have multiple cards and am OK with going the extra effort to get the quarterly bonuses. Since I tend to use Apple Pay, I don’t have to worry about carrying an overstuffed wallet.
    On an ongoing basis, I have:
    Citi Double Cash: 2% on everything
    Citi Custom Cash: 5% on groceries
    US Bank Cash +: 5% on Utilities (electricity, water, trash service, sewer) and Internet, Cable, & Streaming Services
    Quarterly Bonuses for Q2:
    Discover: 5% on Gas & Home Improvement stores
    Chase Freedom: 5% on Amazon & Restaurants
  • TestFol.io - Free Portfolio Analytics
    excellent. is maxdraw daily or month end?
    Drawdown seems based on daily data. Here is the run for 2020 only to see more details of the credit freeze then,
    https://tinyurl.com/yc5rumev
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    I have a BoA card that pays 5.25% for all online purchases and 3.5% for groceries. Costco Citi membership card which I also use for travel pays back 5% on gas and travel. For everything else (tax payment, health insurance, P&C insurance, etc.) have another BoA card that pays 2.62%. They all are Visa. I will not be getting another card (or an Apple card) unless it is better benefits than the 2.62% BoA card and potentially a master card. I do not have a mental bandwidth for more than 3 cards!
    Each person's needs, spending patterns, and mental acuity differ.
    Your Costco card may have been a special offer that lasted for just a short time. Bach when Costco launched its Visa card in 2016 and and also now, it offers only 4% on gas and 3% on travel. The travel category is fairly restrictive: "you will only earn 1%, not 3%, for purchases made at timeshares, campgrounds, bed & breakfasts and for purchases of train and commuter travel." The Costco card also doesn't seem to include travel benefits like CDW (car rental) coverage, let alone travel protection (baggage delay, medvac, etc.) On the plus side, no foreign exchange fee.
    Costco+BofA works for you. For me, paying up ($95) for a "better" BofA card lets me skip the Costco card. It gives me a higher 3.5% back on travel which it defines much more broadly, including '"timeshares, trailer parks, motor home and recreational vehicle rentals, campgrounds, ... real estate agents, operators of passenger trains, buses, taxis, limousines, ferries, boat rentals, parking lots and garages, tolls and bridge fees, tourist attractions and exhibits like art galleries, amusement parks, carnivals, circuses, aquariums, zoos and the like."
    Since I do a fair amount of traveling (greetings from Germany!), use public transit extensively, and pay HOA fees (3.5% back as "travel" charges), this is a nearly perfect card for me. It also provides fairly good travel benefits, including limited cancellation and delay reimbursements and medical coverage. Unlike BofA's basic credit card, this card has no foreign transaction fees, so I get the full benefit of 2.625% (or 3.5%) worldwide.
    Other cards are gravy. If I can remember the categories for the quarter (Discover), that's just a bonus. Driving just 1,000 miles/year, I can live without a card that is good for gas purchases. Figuratively and literally, YMMV.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Thanks, @rforno
    @Level5,
    All good. I only buy new issue Agencies, which are available at Fidelity. Yes, Vanguard does not offer those. I do not buy secondaries in Agencies because I get enough entertainment from equities, not to mention the transaction fees for secondaries. I try my fixed income to be as boring as possible, unless home runs are available on rare occasions. I try to strike a balance by not buying anything that can be called in six months (also, I try not to buy continuously callable) - a matter of time allocation. My prior batch all got called. I restarted buying.
    If the Agencies are AAA with similar terms, we should not expect a lot of spread over Treasuries. (Some States may exempt interest from some Agencies. I can shoot for 15% QDI Fed tax rate + 10% state tax or 25% Fed rate + 0% State rate. I just assume efficient market in evaluating all alternatives and pick the ones that best suit for my portfolio at any particular time.)
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Investopedia's definition of an absolute return fund apparently didn't mention cash as an asset, but I don't really care what investopedia says. Cash can earn 5% these days.
  • Capital Group (American Funds parent) getting into PE
    Capital and KKR are planning a series of hybrid funds that will invest in both publicly and privately traded assets. The first two strategies, expected to launch next year, will hold about 60% in public bonds picked by Capital managers, and 40% in direct and asset-based loans sourced by KKR.

    These are likely the asset allocation or balanced funds. Really have to monitor these funds as they evolve.
    TRP has a global allocation fund with 10% in private equity, and the fund is very average in performance for a number of years.
    Yup. I didn't like the (then) 10-15% Blackstone Black Box they were promoting in RPGAX. I was interested in the fund to compliment PRWCX but I like knowing what I own!
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    As shipwrecked mentioned....If you actually look at Palm Valley's website, it refers to ABSOLUTE RETURN Investing...."Focused on Absolute Returns"....in large letters.
    And I already commented that this IS NOT an absolute fund.
    Mr C. uses cash, how about communicating better every month the % of stocks, cash, and the rest?
    Maybe I missed it, but can you find on the fund page (https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/) the portfolio breakdown?
    Just for fun, I read Mr. C comments on 4/1/2023 (https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/_files/ugd/ef2f99_c0d0844318294a93b988e858fd3274da.pdf) Quote "Today, there are numerous signs of an impending recession and an incipient loss of confidence in the financial system, as the higher interest rates required to quash inflation are exposing deep cracks in the economy. "
    He is a typical downer and don't like tech...since 4/1 SPY is up about 30% and QQQ about 42%
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Reestablished position in NSRGY / 25 shares @ 101.91 This thing is either deep value or a head-fake. Even received a “buy” wreck rec in Barron’s this week.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    PVCMX made about half of the SP500 for 5 years, so it's not alright. :-)
    Good established funds don't guarantee anything either, remember that over long time the SP500 beats most funds because it's formula is very efficient.
    So are you mainly invested in a S&P 500 index fund then?
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    PVCMX made about half of the SP500 for 5 years, so it's not alright. :-)
    Good established funds don't guarantee anything either, remember that over long time the SP500 beats most funds because it's formula is very efficient.
  • Capital Group (American Funds parent) getting into PE
    Wouldn't expect this from conservatively-run juggernaught Capital, but here they are. I hope these funds don't tarnish their reputation by getting too ... creative. (I hold several large long-long-loooong term positions in various of their equity funds)
    Per WSJ:
    Capital Group, the stock-picking juggernaut whose American Funds have been a staple in brokerage accounts for nearly a century, is tapping private-equity pioneer KKR to step into the lucrative world of private investments.
    Capital and KKR are planning a series of hybrid funds that will invest in both publicly and privately traded assets. The first two strategies, expected to launch next year, will hold about 60% in public bonds picked by Capital managers, and 40% in direct and asset-based loans sourced by KKR.
    The new funds will target mass-affluent clients, or those who invest between $100,000 and $1 million. These customers hold the biggest chunk of the assets in wealth accounts, and represent the next frontier for firms that manage alternative assets such as private companies, loans and real estate.
    Capital and KKR also intend to explore multiple flavors of hybrid funds—and private assets—in different markets around the world.

    < - >

    The plan marks one of Capital’s biggest forays into private assets since the 1970s when it helped start a venture-capital fund that would later emerge as Sequoia Capital. The money-management industry has changed dramatically since then, as trillions of dollars flowed into low-cost funds that track market indexes.
    For KKR, the partnership will help extend its reach beyond the ultrawealthy individuals and families who currently invest in its products through wealth managers and financial advisers.
    “Roughly 5% of U.S. households would meet that qualification,” Nuttall said. “There is this whole universe that we’re not getting close to touching.”
    Facing relentless pressure to lower their own fees, traditional stock and bond managers have turned to investing in alternatives. These investments still command higher fees, and are harder for index and exchange-traded funds to duplicate. The pitch for customers is a chance at market-beating returns.

    < - >
    https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/american-funds-parent-launching-partnership-with-kkr-to-move-into-private-assets-114430d0?mod=hp_lead_pos5
  • welcome to the discussion a/k/a help board for MFO's premium tools
    A very old thread!
    But I will ask a question here.
    Ulcer Index (UI by Martin) is prominently featured and often discussed at MFO; there was even a feature on it in the monthly MFO by @David_Snowball in May 2023. The typical definition of UI is over 14 days [e.g. StockCharts UI(14), Yahoo Finance Ulcer(14)]. Although MFO Definitions don't indicate the time period, I assume that it's also 14 days. So, it just indicates the most recent drawdown behavior and shouldn't really be compared with other longer period parameters SD, Sharpe Ratio, etc (typically over 3, 5, 10, 15 years).
    There is a related UPI that is a variation of Sharpe Ratio but its definitions vary - from just 14-days to averaging UI over longer periods.