Perhaps, just perhaps, David Winters is a "regular" on WT because he is one of the sponsors of the program. It sure isn't because he is shredding the market as compared with less costly, more attractive alternatives:
CHART
@scott: "That said, it remains to be seen how long investors tolerate it."
Investors are not tolerating the fund's underperformance, as AUM have decreased from $1.67B (9/2014 per FundMojo) to the current $957M (per M*).
Kevin

Hi Scott,
Thank you for the superior summary of David Winters’ year long decision making slump. Given the quality of all your posts, I expect nothing less.
It seems like Winters has bumbled and fumbled from one bad decision immediately after another. Slumps happen.
That is definitely not the David Winters of 10 years ago when he abandoned Michael Price’s Mutual Series of funds. Winters had the opportunity to learn from two investment grandmasters, both from Price and for a short time from Max Heine. Considering the lapsed time, perhaps he is forgetting or misapplying the lessons and rules that they passed to him.
That’s especially why I am anxious to see the upcoming interview. It will allow us to contrast the high-riding star manager of yesteryear against the down-to-earth struggling manager of today.
Less importantly, I’m also intrigued by how Consuelo Mack will conduct the interview given that the Wintergreen funds are co-sponsors of her program. I anticipate she will do a competent, workwoman-like job. She is consistently polite, but does ask the tough questions.
Best Wishes.

Thanks from here too, Bee - the audio link is a really good source generally about strategic allocation for income-focused investing, and specifically for ideas for tweaks for H2 2015. -- AJ

Hi Guys,
Like Scott, I too look forward to the upcoming WealthTrack interview with David Winters. I learn from a master.
It will be informative to learn if some of his fundamental guideposts have changed recently. To test that possibility it is instructive to contrast a past interview with the one that Ted will post. Here is a Link to last year's video interview:
http://wealthtrack.com/recent-programs/david-winters-different-drummer/
Any substantial changes will be revealing.
Best Wishes.

I'm actually curious about this interview from the standpoint of whether or not Winters will be honest about some of the issues that he's encountered in recent years.
Winters has said that he believes in various themes including the rise of the emerging market consumer. The other theme that kind of ties in with that is luxury goods as Winters has believed that emerging consumers will want similar things. He's run into issues with emerging markets, plus a crackdown in China on luxury goods and a horrible period for Macau.
His tobacco stocks have worked out okay, but other themes (Canadian oil and gas is another) have basically been where you do not want to be in recent years.
Last, but certainly not least was the horrible idea of going after Coke as an activist. It got him nothing (and he should have seen that coming) and Buffett finally got to a point where he verbally really let Winters have it on air.
This was what Buffett said:
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/19369/buffett-on-david-winters-wintergreen
I know there is a view for the longer term and Winters has said as such. That said, it remains to be seen how long investors tolerate it.
That doesn't even get into the fees and minimum because Winters has compared Wintergreen to a hedge fund, despite the fact that he's rarely ever used any such tools.

Given today’s market conditions and the S&P 500 CAPE valuation, I anticipate an equity annual real return of 1.0%, and a bond return of 2.5% (mix of treasury and corporate holdings) over the next 10-year time horizon.
Add another 2.5% for inflation. I presently expect a 60/40 equity/bond mixed portfolio to generate an actual return of 0.6 X 1.0 + 0.4 X 2.5 + 2..5 (inflation) = 4.1% annual average actual return for the next 10 years. Given the crudeness of the analyses, the projection is 4% annually. Quoting anything more accurate is misleading.

On a macro level I agree. When you look at stagnating wages, labor participation rate, retiring baby boomer, increase of people on food stamps, cost of Obamacare it point to a economic malaise. Also, at some point we will get a VAT which should put an additional damper on things.

FYI: I will link interview early Saturday morning.
Regards,
Ted
Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
As we celebrate our tenth anniversary year on WEALTHTRACK we have been taking an in depth look at one of the biggest investment trends of the past decade, the huge migration of both institutional and individual investors from actively managed funds to passive, index-based ones, especially ETFs.
As we have reported before, index funds now account for a third of fund assets, up from 14% ten years ago. And recently exchange traded funds, or ETFs, have seen the lion’s share of the fund flows.
As Morningstar recently reported, U.S. ETFs have more than $2 trillion dollars in assets compared to nearly $13 trillion for all mutual funds, excluding money market funds. That means 14% of fund assets are now in ETFs, up from a mere 4% ten years ago.
During the current six year bull market index funds have outperformed the vast majority of actively managed funds. In addition, the cost benefits of index funds are considered to be overwhelmingly in investors’ favor, especially when compounded over time. The asset-weighted expense ratio for passive funds was just .20% in 2014, compared with 0.79% for active funds.
Even investors in active funds are opting for lower cost ones. During the past decade the lowest cost quintile of active funds received $1.07 trillion of the total $1.13 trillion dollars of the net new flows into actively managed funds.
With better performance and lower costs it’s hard to find anyone concerned about these developments. However this week we have an interview with a critic of the surge to passive investing. Not surprisingly, he is an active fund manager.
David Winters is CEO of Wintergreen Advisers and Portfolio Manager of the Wintergreen Fund, which he launched in 2005. He was nominated for Morningstar’s International-Stock Manager of the year award in 2010 and 2011.
He has been a WEALTHTRACK regular since the beginning because his traditional value–oriented, global approach worked for years. However the last five years have been rough. The fund has underperformed its benchmark and Morningstar World Stock category.
I spoke with Winters about why he thinks the move to index funds is a dangerous market mania, which puts retirees at particular risk.
If you miss the show on air this week, you can always catch it on our website. We also have an EXTRA interview with David Winters about the challenges of being an active manager during a six year bull market. Its available exclusively online. As always, we welcome your feedback on Facebook and Twitter.
Have a great 4th of July weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and productive one.
Best Regards,
Consuelo

https://www.artisanpartners.com/individual-investors/news-insights/news/press-releases/2015/artisan-partners-launches-developing-world-fund.html
Initially, the management team (apparently, a "team" is one now) will be based in SF:
https://www.artisanpartners.com/individual-investors/investments/developing-world-team.html

Despite the positive headline, the labor participation rate fell to the lowest level since 1977. Not good.
http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LNS11300000_1978_2015_all_period_M06_data.gif
"Annual increases in wages have clung near 2% since 2012 — not much faster than the rate of inflation — even though the labor market has tightened considerably." Not good.
And the all important, but under-reported U6, remains stubbornly high at 10.5%. Not good.
DATA
Kevin

@ JohnChisum,
Thanks for this link. From this article:
"...the (Faber CAPE) strategy all hinges on your definition of worst. Mr Faber argues that the worst places to invest in are not the cheap markets belonging to troubled economies, but the investors’ darlings that have been chased to heady valuations."
The Schiller CAPE index points out that one of these worst markets are US markets.
The hard question is when will expensive markets crash and will they remain out of favor for long periods of time (a lost decade) and conversely when will cheap market rebound and how long will they remain in favor? Both trends can go on for longer than one is willing to wait.
Waiting for cheap assets to rebound can be more easily tolerated if the cheap asset pays a solid growing dividend. If the dividend payment can resemble an income stream the waiting might be very tolerable.
theres-a-new-kid-on-the-global-dividend-block-mebane-fabers-cambria-foreign-shareholder-yield-etf

Here is a link to a Daily Mail article dated Sept. 2014, that shows an example of a global CAPE strategy using single country ETFs. Meb Faber has done a lot of work on this principle.
It is probably too complicated for most investors.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-2738966/How-use-CAPE-beat-market-global-CAPE-values.html

@JohnChisum: Thanks. I searched the website and failed to find that doc.
Stepping down his role in prep for a sabbatical at the end of the year is understandable. He has been doing heavy lifting for 10 years (and 10 before that).

Thanks @bee for this info.

Thanks @JohnChisum, here a teleconference by the same author (6.29.15):
fmdcapital.com/teleseminar-four-components-of-a-successful-income-portfolio/
Handout to Audio:
Four-Components-Of-A-Successful-Income-Portfolio.pdf

@LLJB
Your note worked. Here is the updated prospectus with correct symbols and expenses:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834415004204/fp0014974_497.htm

Hi Guys,
The saying that “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler” is often but not universally attributed to Albert Einstein.
Regardless of who actually made that pithy proclamation, it is especially applicable when making investment forecasts. Uncertainty dominates any forecasting, and complexity only increases the odds of introducing extraneous and erroneous factors.
I particularly favor a short and simple set of rules when forecasting longer-term market returns. I am not in any way motivated to travel to Chicago to attend a Morningstar convention where invited experts offer no more illuminating projections than I can painlessly glean from these simple rules.
What is my simple rule set? For the equity portion of my portfolio, I use a 10-year equity returns correlation that deploys the Bob Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratio (CAPE) as the entry parameter. Its current value is about 26; its historical mean value is roughly 17. So, today, the equity marketplace has a cautionary higher than normal risk level.
Future equity returns are negatively correlated with CAPE. A correlation that I like projects the following 10-year annual real returns (inflation subtracted) of 11%, 8%, 5%, 3%, and 1% as CAPE groupings increase from below10, 10 to 15, 15 to 20, 20 to 25, and greater than 25, respectively. These 5 groupings project a sad story for the current CAPE level. Please take note: This table is the primary insight and tool.
Above a CAPE of 30, equity returns have been historically negative for the upcoming 10 year period. One reason I like the above correlation is the timeframe balance of its components. Both CAPE and the equity market returns forecast are for a 10-year time horizon.
Projecting the next 10-year bond return likelihood is an even easier task. Simply use the current yield of the 10-year treasury bond. If you are a more aggressive corporate bond holder, you might consider adding 0.8% to the government value.
Given today’s market conditions and the S&P 500 CAPE valuation, I anticipate an equity annual real return of 1.0%, and a bond return of 2.5% (mix of treasury and corporate holdings) over the next 10-year time horizon.
Add another 2.5% for inflation. I presently expect a 60/40 equity/bond mixed portfolio to generate an actual return of 0.6 X 1.0 + 0.4 X 2.5 + 2..5 (inflation) = 4.1% annual average actual return for the next 10 years. Given the crudeness of the analyses, the projection is 4% annually. Quoting anything more accurate is misleading.
If you are a neophyte investor and expecting a portfolio return that is north of 8% annually over the upcoming 10 years, forget-about-it. It is not now in the cards given the present high value of CAPE. Naturally, these forecasts change as the input parameters get revised.
Well, this forecast is not rocket science and it did not need a visit to the Morningstar clambake. It has taken a complex forecasting problem and has simplified to allow a rapid and respectable estimate that does not depart too radically from those made by the professionals with their complex computer models. That complexity adds little.
Returning to the Einstein quote, I hope my approach has not crossed the overly simplified boundary. I also hope that a few MFO members find this simple forecasting tool useful. I realize that many MFO members use similar simplified methods in making their own projections. I thank these members for their patience with this submittal.
Best Regards.

@Derf- with Firefox here's the easiest way to clear your MFO browser cache:
1) Make sure that your browser is looking at the MFO site.
2) Use " Command I " which will bring up the "page info" window for the MFO site.
3) Select " Security " at the top of the info page.
4) Select " View Cookies ", which will then show you a list of all of the stored MFO cookies
5) Click on " Remove all Cookies "
Of course you will then have to go back to the MFO site and re-register so that a new set of cookies can be stored.

A brief summation on these three sector, XLF (Finance), XLU (Utilities), XLV (Health care), for the rest of the year.
3-sectors-to-watch-in-the-second-half-of-2015

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-02/payrolls-in-u-s-rose-in-june-with-little-change-in-wages
MarketWatch Slant:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-adds-223000-jobs-in-june-as-unemployment-falls-to-7-year-low-2015-07-02/print

Safeco (property and casualty) was bought out by Liberty Mutual in 2008, but the life insurance and investment (mutual fund) business was sold off in 2004; the life insurance became Symetra and the funds were immediately acquired by Pioneer.
Benham was in Mountain View. Along with SA Funds, perhaps the only family named so far that really was within Silicon Valley. (Benham/AC maintains the same location there as it had when it was a separate company: https://www.americancentury.com/content/americancentury/corporate/en/careers/why-work-here/our-communities.html)

A few thoughts:
1. I had no idea this fund was coming out. I got an alert because I own two of the other funds and was surprised to see it. There was nothing about the fund on the website yesterday.
2. Are there really enough major foreign healthcare names for this to be worthwhile? I mean, I know there's the European names (Novartis, Sanofi, etc etc) and others, but HQH (for example) is 12% foreign. This new fund can be up to 40% foreign - but "up to" is the focus (and 5% in EM.)
3. It can have 10% in private names, which is less than HQH/HQL.
I guess I'm just not seeing why I need this in addition to two of the other funds.
Edited to add: in terms of HQL, I see in the propsectus: "The Trust may invest up to 25% of its net assets in securities of foreign
issuers, expected to be located primarily in Western Europe, Canada and
Japan, and securities of U.S. issuers traded in foreign markets (‘‘Foreign
Securities’’). The Trust may buy and sell currencies for the purpose of
settlement of transactions in Foreign Securities"
and "The Trust emphasizes investment in securities of emerging growth Life
Investments Sciences Companies. These investments are often venture capital
investments. The Trust may invest up to 40% of its net assets in securities
subject to legal or contractual restrictions as to resale (‘‘Restricted
Securities’’), including venture capital investments. The Trust’s investments
in Restricted Securities may include ‘‘start-up,’’ early and later stage
financings of privately-held companies and private placements in public
companies. See ‘‘Investment Objective and Policies.’’"
So HQL has up to 25% in foreign and up to 40% in private. The new worldwide fund can do up to 10% in private and up to 45% in foreign.
Honestly, I'd rather HQL's 25% in foreign and 40% in private.

@MJG
Twas not that I don't know how to do the ballpark math; as I do this all of the time for our portfolio. I was curious as to Old_Skeets number and what brought him to this conclusion.
Easy case for what Ted mentioned would be to pick 5 balanced/moderate allocation funds and discover the average down for the day in question. Magico-Presto, eh?
I've always been very good with head math........
Each week at our house for the true numbers, I use a handy-dandy and most reliable, HP-12C.
I'm sure your example may have been of benefit to someone here; but I am surprised that you would choose to explain your method to me.......my being in the game of life for so many years.