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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Tariffs
    Disclaimer: These are OPINIONS being expressed here so the is no right or wrong.
    That said...
    ___________________________
    On your first point, McCarthy was used as an analogy of the dominance that one Red Party elected official had over the party. It's hard to argue that the analogy is NOT appropriate as McCarthy is widely regarded as one of the most powerful US Senators of all-time and his initiatives gripped the party and nation for years!
    But it's the internet so...
    https://www.npr.org/2021/10/18/1046648461/decades-before-trumps-election-lies-mccarthys-anti-communist-fever-gripped-the-g
    ___________________________
    On your 2nd point, agreed that it will take time to recover. Disagree that we will at best only recover to be a 2nd tier nation.
    There are a LOT of country tier designations, everything from rugby to advertising to economics.
    If you are talking about the economic tiers, C'mon Man!
    https://evadav.com/blog/tier-1-2-3-countries-list#:~:text=Tier 2: Developing or Emerging Economies&text=Tier 2 countries, such as,landscapes and growing purchasing powers.
    ____________________________
    And on a personal note, I feel bad for anyone who has lost hope in the country, especially retirees/senior citizens like me and the missus.
  • JPMorgan Emerging Markets Equity Fund reopened to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312525057404/d890544d497.htm
    ...Effective April 1, 2025, the Fund will no longer be subject to a limited offering, and all limited offering disclosure relating to the Fund will be deleted....
  • This Time, It Really Is the Tariffs
    John Rekenthaler writes that a new era would begin if Liberation Day tariffs are enacted.
    Recent stock market history may not be helpful in navigating the situation.
    Dare I say, this time will be different?
    "President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs are the most radical economic proposal of my lifetime. If enacted, they will reverse a 75-year trend of increasing free trade and mutual cooperation among the world’s developed nations. The global marketplace would begin a new era."
    "For more than 40 years, US equity investors have benefited from buying on dips. The last time that tactic failed with any regularity was during the 1970s and early 1980s, when the previously unknown condition of stagflation confounded the marketplace."
    "We now face another unknown condition: high global tariffs. How that circumstance will play out is anybody’s guess. But it would be rash to assume that recent stock market history will repeat."
    https://www.morningstar.com/economy/this-time-it-really-is-tariffs
  • CDs and Money Markets
    As I anticipated, New Issue, CP CDs paying over 4.00%, actually as of this AM, 3.75%, except for 3-6 months, are now gone for the time being at least.
    We hold a 5-yr ladder now paying a smidge under 5% with the addition last week of a replacement rung at 4.10%.
    My position on CDs and ladders is well documented on various threads so I'll not add any more here. That is, other than to say, the Secondary Issue market is now the place to look for deals again. And finally, some very good deals!
  • So Much for Flight to Safety
    @gman57. Yay. Predicting rates seems as hard as predicting equity markets. Maybe harder. In crash's recent post, I see BlackRock's Fink remains contrarian on rates.
  • Matt Levine- MoneyStuff, 4/7/25: "Nondelegation"
    Article explains the "Major Questions Doctrine" that might come into play with Trumps Tariffs and the Courts.
    https://vox.com/scotus/407051/supreme-court-trump-tariffs-major-questions
  • FINVIS FUTURES, March 7
    Note: For the entire current futures chart click on FINVIS FUTURES .
    db-1270
    Sure looks a lot better than yesterday!
  • Junk Bond Investors Close to Capitulating?
    Excerpts from a WSJ Live Update written by reporter Matt Wirz ~1 hour ago.
    I don't know the utility of Barclays' signal - please conduct your own due diligence.
    "High-yield credit markets are nearing capitulation under the onslaught of tariff turmoil,
    according to a measurement conducted by Barclays.
    The bank’s capitulation signal jumped 26 percentage points since the end of March to 83%,
    its highest level since October 2023 when Treasury yields spiked on inflation fears."

    "Based on the signal, junk bonds are on the verge of capitulating but have not yet buckled like stocks.
    The portion of the market trading at distressed prices has climbed past 8% for the first time since 2023".
  • U.S. Treasury issues retribution??? What if there is a new tool being considered by foreign holders
    Are you suggesting countries too (in addition to the hedge funds mentioned by @Observant1) started dumping Treasuries today helping push rates up?
  • U.S. Treasury issues retribution??? What if there is a new tool being considered by foreign holders
    I don't know much, except what I see; from time to time.
    --- The Pimco Enhanced Short Duration, etf; had the first price down days (Last Friday and today) since late 2022.
    --- UST issues 2, 5, 10 and 30 year durations had large basis points gains today. The percentage (%) moves ranged from +3% to +4.8%.
    --- Many IG bond funds/etf's; after decent YTD price gains recently, have lost about 50% of those gains TODAY.
    I'm trying to imagine a progressing action from foreign holders of UST issues selling off UST's. Their mantra being, 'We don't want your junk issues any longer, as you're becoming a failing state'. Of course, if a message was sent to certain folks in D.C. stating that the U.S. might/should consider that 'tariff' thing.
    This data is believed to be accurate.
    Top Foreign Holders:
    Japan: Holds the largest amount of U.S. debt, with over $1 trillion.
    China: Is the second-largest foreign holder, with approximately $759 billion.
    United Kingdom: Follows China with approximately $723 billion.
    Other Notable Holders:
    Luxembourg: holds $423.9 billion.
    Cayman Islands: holds $418.9 billion.
    Foreign Holdings Composition:
    Foreigners hold approximately one-third of outstanding U.S. Treasury securities.
    The composition of foreign holdings varies by geography, with advanced economies' holdings being predominantly private investors and emerging market economies' holdings dominated by official holdings.
    Data Source:
    The data on foreign holdings of U.S. securities is based on the Treasury International Capital (TIC) U.S. liabilities survey (SHL).
    Types of Treasury Securities:
    The U.S. Treasury offers five types of Treasury marketable securities: Treasury Bills, Treasury Notes, Treasury Bonds, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and Floating Rate Notes (FRNs).
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • So Much for Flight to Safety
    @Observant1. Thanks. That helps. Well, helps with understanding. It just did not make sense to me what happened today. Last Thursday was text book. But not today.
  • So Much for Flight to Safety
    "Market participants said the declines in the $29tn Treasury market on Monday reflected several factors, including hedge funds cutting down on leverage — or borrowing used to magnify trades —
    and a broader dash for cash as investors sheltered from swings in the wider market."

    "Investors and analysts pointed in particular to hedge funds that took advantage of small differences in the price of Treasuries and associated futures contracts, known as the 'basis trade'. These funds, which are large players in the fixed-income market, unwound those positions as they cut back on risk, prompting selling in Treasuries."
    https://www.ft.com/content/623971a1-cd93-43c2-ad8d-ba8815339a24
    Financial Times article may be paywalled.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Yes, I was going to buy PDO today because it was at par (no discount/premium) after the hit it took. Normally 4.5% premium and paying almost 12%. I almost pulled the trigger. I decided to give up CEF's about a year ago and that kept me from buying it. Wasn't easy but I fought the temptation and stayed away.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I didn't buy or sell anything today.
    Multiple posters on another forum purchased Pimco Dynamic Income (PDI) today.
    This CEF has sold at an average premium of 12.85% over the past year.
    According to M*, the fund's premium is currently only 5.97%.
    The dividend yield is apparently >15%.
  • James Bianco, "Who Blew Up" Today?
    https://www.linkedin.com/posts/james-bianco-117619152_tin-foil-hat-types-ask-who-profited-off-the-activity-7315044501297721345-zo8l?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAFjCY6wBccxAhzfDGLCwSkfGL97DN413bHU
    "Tin-foil hat types ask who profited off the wild volatility below.
    My experience is it is often nobody. Wild moves like below hurt more than help. This includes brokerage prop-desks and billion-dollar hedge funds.
    I see this kind of volatility and ask, "who blew up.""
    image
  • Matt Levine- MoneyStuff, 4/7/25: "Nondelegation"
    While I read Matt Levine almost daily, I don't believe that I've ever reproduced his work here on MFO before. However, his commentary today is of extraordinary interest under the present circumstances.
    Nondelegation
    Part 1:
    The stock market continued to crash this morning because of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announced last week. Despite widespread criticism of the tariffs, Trump is unmoved. He gets to decide, and he has decided that the tariffs are good.
    But does he get to decide? In some ways the simplest solution to the tariff problem is the one that I wrote about last Thursday. The US Constitution says that “the Congress shall have Power to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises.” The power of taxation is the most fundamentally legislative function, so much so that the Constitution also says that “all Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives.” This was at the very center of constitutional design, and in fact of the founding of America. As a history of the House puts it:
    Congress—and in particular, the House of Representatives—is invested with the “power of the purse,” the ability to tax and spend public money for the national government. Massachusetts’ Elbridge Gerry said at the Federal Constitutional Convention that the House “was more immediately the representatives of the people, and it was a maxim that the people ought to hold the purse-strings.”
    English history heavily influenced the Constitutional framers. The British House of Commons has the exclusive right to create taxes and spend that revenue, which is considered the ultimate check on royal authority. Indeed, the American colonists’ cry of “No taxation without representation!” referred to the injustice of London imposing taxes on them without the benefit of a voice in Parliament.
    Tariffs are uncontroversially taxes — “duties, imposts and excises” are listed in the constitutional text, and they are designed to raise revenue — so only the House of Representatives can originate them. It is simply an error for President Trump to impose tariffs. He can’t, that’s not his job, this is all a misunderstanding, and the tariffs will go away as soon as anyone notices.
    Of course it is not that simple. Congress has in fact delegated tariff powers to the president for over 100 years, and courts have generally said that that’s fine.
    But there are some differences between those precedents and the current situation. For one thing, Trump’s tariffs were imposed under a law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, which allows the president to regulate imports if he declares a national emergency.[1] The IEEPA had never been used to impose tariffs before Trump used it in February to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico; he also used it on “Liberation Day” last week to impose much broader tariffs. Here is what the IEEPA says:
    Any authority granted to the President by section 1702 of this title may be exercised to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States, if the President declares a national emergency with respect to such threat.
    The authorities granted to the President by section 1702 of this title may only be exercised to deal with an unusual and extraordinary threat with respect to which a national emergency has been declared for purposes of this chapter and may not be exercised for any other purpose. Any exercise of such authorities to deal with any new threat shall be based on a new declaration of national emergency which must be with respect to such threat.
    What is the “unusual and extraordinary threat” that requires these tariffs? The declaration of the tariffs says that there is a “national emergency posed by the large and persistent trade deficit that is driven by the absence of reciprocity in our trade relationships and other harmful policies like currency manipulation and exorbitant value-added taxes (VAT) perpetuated by other countries.”
    The idea seems to be that every trade policy of every country in the world, over the past several decades, constitutes an “unusual and extraordinary threat.” This is a strange way to use words! How can every instance of trade with every country be unusual? How, after decades of trade deficits, is a trade deficit extraordinary?
    It is also a strange way to use law. The US is in a perpetual state of emergency with respect to every country forever, allowing the president to use emergency powers to bypass the Constitution to impose tariffs.
    The other thing that has changed, as we have discussed a few times, is that US federal courts, and particularly the Supreme Court, have recently become more interested in “nondelegation” challenges to executive action. The idea is that Congress often gives executive agencies the power to make rules, and there is a longstanding, largely conservative legal tradition objecting to this: The Constitution gives Congress “all legislative powers” of the federal government, so only Congress, not executive agencies, should be writing substantive rules.
    So sometimes people challenge regulations, saying that they are unconstitutional because only Congress, not regulatory agencies, can legislate. These challenges rarely work. The current state of the law is that Congress must give the executive “an intelligible principle to guide the delegee’s use of discretion,” and for the last 90 years or so courts have usually found that it has. But there seems to be revived interest in nondelegation challenges: The Supreme Court case I quoted in the last sentence, from 2019, was a 5-3 decision in which four justices expressed interest in “reconsider[ing] the approach we have taken for the past 84 years” and limiting the ability of Congress to delegate its powers to the executive. (Also, disclosure-brag, my wife argued it.) With the current personnel on the Supreme Court, there might be five votes for a more robust nondelegation doctrine.
    Would it apply to tariffs? I don’t know. The modern revival of nondelegation is often about agency rulemaking: People object to unelected regulators making rules, because (say) the US Securities and Exchange Commission is not as democratically accountable as Congress is. The president is elected, and there is some democratic accountability for the impacts of his tariffs; perhaps Congress should be allowed to give him a blank check to invent tariffs.
    But the Constitution really does say that only Congress can impose tariffs. Arguably either the IEEPA does have an “intelligible principle” that limits the president’s ability to impose tariffs — they have to be a necessary response to an “unusual and extraordinary threat,” not just general economic policy — in which case the current blanket tariffs seem suspect, or it doesn’t, in which case it is unconstitutional. So you could imagine two sorts of legal challenges to the current round of IEEPA tariffs:
    1.) The IEEPA doesn’t actually give the president to impose tariffs on every country just because he doesn’t like free trade. IEEPA powers are only for emergencies, and “international trade exists” can’t really be an unusual and extraordinary threat to the US.
    2.) If the IEEPA did give the president sweeping powers to impose tariffs, that would be unconstitutional.
    I called this argument “frankly pretty speculative” on Thursday, but obviously someone should try it. There are trillions of dollars at stake, and a lot of the conservative legal establishment is probably not thrilled with tariffs. Surely there will be cases.
    As it happens, also on Thursday, somebody filed one. Bloomberg News reports:
    A powerful legal group backed by conservative funding sued President Donald Trump, setting up an early legal clash over the significant US tariffs his administration announced this week.
    The New Civil Liberties Alliance said Thursday the president illegally imposed an emergency tariff on Chinese goods. NCLA is representing a small retail stationery business named Simplified, which claims it will suffer “severe” harm from his “unconstitutional” tariffs on China.
    The lawsuit filed in federal court in Florida may be the first legal challenge to the sweeping new US tariffs. The levies, which were announced by Trump on Wednesday, have roiled global markets and caused US stocks to plunge.
  • Timely pricing
    Yesterday (Sunday) Fidelity was showing Friday figures (e.g. SPAXX at 3.98%). But today Fidelity is showing the weekend figures. For example, FDRXX shows 4.05% as of April 6th. When you look at the fund page, check the "as of" date right above the quote in the "Daily Info" (upper left corner).
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/316067107
    But if you enter a buy order, you'll see the April 4th quote of 4.06%.
  • Timely pricing
    Hi @msf
    I check numerous items at the weekend, too. SPAXX at Fido had 3.98%. I write all of this stuff down on a weekly work sheet for reference.
    FDRXX was 4.06 and FZDXX was 4.16%. These were Sunday morning numbers.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I made three small buys today At about 1.6% of total portfolio. Two at Vanguard & one at Schwab. No waiting in line, so maybe things are slowing down a bit. Sold some funds over the last few months & trying to get back to 30 or 35 % in equities.
    Hopefully the dippers take note, Ha Ha!