Hi Guys,
Wow!
When I first started thinking in terms of an early retirement, I was approaching 60. Thinking and planning for a mid-50s retirement was never in my playbook. Congratulations if you want and can execute that major league feat.
Every case is highly personal, and therefore singularly different.
In my case, my earning and saving career only started after completing graduate school and doing some military service. I was 30 before mustering out of the Army. At that time, my wife and I packed our entire belongings in an old Chevy and headed for California with the back seat still partially empty. No way could we manage retirement in just a little North of 20 years.
But that’s our story, and I’m sure each of you have your own compelling versions. For you younger folks, retirement will be a life changing event, and warrants careful and painful study before a decision is made. I say painful because of the many component uncertainties that feed that decision process.
One tool that addresses some of these uncertainties is Monte Carlo simulators. Monte Carlo analyses were specifically designed to assess risk probabilities under uncertain environments. During World War II, they played a significant role in the development of nuclear weapons. Within the last 2 decades, Monte Carlo simulations have been developed to facilitate retirement planning. These simulators are now readily accessible for all to exploit.
All the large mutual fund outfits offer this tool: Vanguard, Fidelity, T Rowe Price and others provide versions of differing complexity and differing input requirements. They all do yeomen work. I suggest you do a web search using Monte Carlo retirement planning as key words. You can choose your own poison from a long list of options.
One of my favorites is found at the MoneyChimp site. It is certainly not the most eloquent nor is it the most comprehensive option. But it is likely the easiest to input with instantaneous outputs from 1000 randomly selected cases. Here is the Link:
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/volatility/montecarlo.htm
One of the benefits from these simulators is that what-if scenarios are quickly input and evaluated. Portfolio survival probabilities as a function of retirement time is the graphic output.
Test how significant the anticipated retirement length is to the portfolio survival likelihoods. Check out sensitivity to savings rate. Examine the survival impacts of guesstimated portfolio annual returns and their volatility by inputting various levels for each parameter. All of these sensitivity studies can be completed in quick time.
All Monte Carlo analyses only output probabilities. They don’t predict the future. That’s the nature of future uncertainties. But they provide the user with a feeling for the robustness of his plans and provide guidelines for more attractive options. Please give this working tool a try.
By the way, Monte Carlo simulators might also help retirees to make better informed portfolio asset allocation and drawdown decisions. None of this is perfect, but in the investment universe, nothing is ever perfect.
Best Wishes for wise decision making.

I think you mean well Dex but I can't help but wonder how that mindset would have worked coming out of Black Tuesday (Great Depression), Black Monday (crash of 1987) the last Great Recession or any number of hard times. Truly some will give up at anything but the majority will push through and find solutions.

Please go back and read my post. Those incidents do not have anything to do with what I wrote and do not apply. It has nothing to do with the stock market but trends and economics.
Also, one post can not include the all the reasons. For, example, I left out most have little or no savings, the middle class shrinking since the '70s and wages flat since the '70s, employer provided health benefits reduced or eliminated, defined pension plan gone, little in 401K, social security will be pushed out further, older workers (55+) eliminated by companies because they make too much, companies don't like to hire older workers, VAT will be instituted to help with the debt (and Obamacare).
In short the conditions that have allowed a comfortable retirement are gone for most and new challenges will make it even less likely.
Add it all up and my conclusion is valid.
I think you mean well for your children, prepare them for the future - not the past.

And, although it might not be right for you … for me … it’s a keeper.
Old_Skeet

I wouldn't even say right or wrong, more just different. Some of it comes down to the idea of how much is it worth it to you to avoid a K-1. The other issue that I think really weighs in my mind is that private equity is a very volatile and tricky investment class and I personally would rather go for the biggest. LPEFX does offer access to some investments that I think aren't even available as foreign ordinaries, such as the Harbourvest Fund that I believe is LPEFX's largest position.
Lastly, it comes down to the idea of what your time horizon is. You've done well and I'm glad you have with this fund. It has done better in the last year or two and hopefully it will continue, but it is down 27% since inception, according to Yahoo Finance. If you're looking for long-term, I do tend to favor the larger individual players. However, with a shorter-term time horizon and an exit strategy, if this fund is working for you, great.
Again, not right or wrong just different approaches.

It is a shame that you didn't enjoy your younger years. I try not to tell myself, "just wait until retirement", but I do try to make the most of the present.

OK, maybe I exaggerated a tad. But my 20s did suck. I was a lost and aimless person that lived in abject poverty. But the 1980s were among my best living in the Sierras with sunny days almost 365 days a year. Still, I was the poster boy for "not living in the present" since all I did was focus on the future and retirement. I am just thankful and very blessed that mindset worked so that now I can enjoy the "precious present" as much as I do.

@Old_Skeet introduce me to this fund years ago and I liked the name so I occasionally "check" this fund's "temperature" every now and then. The fund uses a fund of fund approach holding other Columbia funds in various percentages. M* reports its holding as of 2/28/15 as:

I'd like to understand it's present strategy a little better so I thought maybe others could shed some light on its portfolio management strategy. It presently is holding roughly 85% bonds and 4% cash.
Fund Mojo describe the fund this way:
"Columbia Thermostat Z Fund normally allocates at least 95% of net assets among a selected group of stock and bond mutual funds according to the current level of the S&P 500 Stock Index in relation to predetermined ranges set by the investment adviser."
Columbia Fund's Website explain the fund this way:

The fund doesn't seem very interested in the "heat" (of the S&P 500 Stock Index) right now.

Hi finder,
Based upon my current position in this fund (LPEFX) and what it has already put in my pocket I'd most likely exit the position in a good market downdraft. Currently, it's nav is about $7.00 per share and I'd be getting out back of $6.00 on a (market) drop in nav. Natually, if it made a distibution of $1.00 this is much different than a drop in nav due to a price decline in the markets.
It's probally not for those that are not prepared, or have no plan in place, to deal with price declines usually found when market votality picks up.
The fund has to drop a good bit in its price before it become a net loser for me. Making money has as much to do with when one buys into a security just as much as when they chose to exit. So with its good price decline found back in 2008 this was a good entry point and if one wanted to exit, now might be a good time. But, I currently plan to stay with the position. Another time to enter was also found in 2011.
Old_Skeet

That Driehaus paper is excellent. I was interested to see what fund portfolio moves managers are making to try to accommodate reduced liquidity (in addition to or instead of what David Sherman talks about), and found this in the paper:
"Here’s what we’ve done over the past several years to address our concerns about declining market liquidity:
• We continue to hold high cash balances, typically 8% to 20% of AUM, in all of our portfolios.
• When we initiate new positions in the portfolios, we’ve reduced the percentage of a bond issue that we are willing to hold. A year or two ago, we were comfortable holding up to 15% of any bond issue. Now, we prefer not to hold more than 10% of any given issue.
• We model 2-10 points of additional downside in our bear case scenarios ....
• If a bond is a large component of a major etf, we require additional risk premium to own the bond ....
• We are quicker to recognize and hedge downside volatility when liquidity declines, as compared to prior years.
• We consider equity as an investment option in the capital structure more frequently than in the past.
• Finally, we have soft closed strategies well below fund capacities to alleviate liquidity-related stress on existing positions."
The level of perceived risk would seem to depend to some degree on the macro outlook, i.e., a rates-takeoff vs. a lower-for-longer view.

Looking at M*, I see that performance of LPEFX during the market crisis of 2008 was simply horrible: It lost 73%, and it recovered only in 2014. Any idea how it will behave in the next crisis?

Standard and Poors just downgraded Puerto Rico to CCC+ with negative outlook.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102573741

Unfortunately, the fund closed April 22, 2015 per the link:
http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/news/2015/04/23/vulcan-value-partners-names-new-president-closes.html

Hi guys (Mark & Scott),
I was off the board most of the weekend and with this I am sorry about the slow response.
You both make some good comments; however, the three year (19.9%) and five year (12.3%) performance for the fund (LPEFX) place it within the top ten percent of its category. During the past year, or so, many private equity firms have been under government review and with this the performance of private equity has somewhat waned.
I think LPEFX is a neat specialty fund to own and it has put some good money in my pocket over the past five years. During this time it has put about 33% of what I have investested back into my pocket plus I am currently carrying 49% in unrealized capital gains. It has indeed been a good cash cow. Plus there is no K-1.
And, although it might not be right for you … for me … it’s a keeper.
Old_Skeet

Thanks for sharing David.
Here is a post from Baird along the same lines (from February).
http://www.bairdfunds.com/news/changes-to-bond-markets-create-liquidity-concerns-and-systematic-issures-bond-investors-should-consider
Edit: Driehaus shared concerns about "The Evolving Liquidity Crisis in the Bond Market" in their February commentary of LCMAX
http://driehauscapitalmanagement.com/pdf/funds/summaries/lcmax-summary-22815.pdf

FYI: The Federal Reserve seems unlikely to give stock investors reason to finally show some trading conviction when it meets this week.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/04/27/morning-moneybeat-why-the-fomc-could-keep-markets-rangebound/tab/print/
Current Futures:
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
BIRMINGHAM – April 22, 2015 –
Vulcan Value Partners is closing to new investors. The firm closed its Small Cap Program in November of 2013, and closed its All Cap Program in early 2014. Effective immediately, Vulcan Value Partners is closing its Large Cap Programs – which include Large Cap, Focus and Focus Plus.

FYI: After 15 years the Nasdaq Composite Index has returned to its dot-com-era record, just as the bull market is looking tired.
Many money managers warn that U.S. stocks are overdue for a pullback. They are shifting money to stocks in Europe, Japan and even developing countries.
Yet some who correctly foresaw the 2000-2002 meltdown say U.S. stocks are less risky today. Their reasoning: Although stock prices are high, interest rates and inflation haven’t gotten to the levels that killed bull markets in the past.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/04/26/why-this-old-bull-market-may-not-be-ready-to-die/tab/print/

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Off Google Search) ETF once represented 40% of trading volume at American Stock Exchange; a net outflow in 2014.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=QQQ+ETF+Falters+as+Nasdaq+Soars

I Own LKBAX & MAPOX - They Do No Advertising And Have No 12b1-Fees

Wellington is still open to retail investors, in case that's the reason you're looking for alternatives. See Reuters' article.
It's hard to find something really similar in terms of long term performance and history, portfolio attributes, management experience, and cost to Wellington. For example, D&C has similar long term management and performance and low cost, but higher volatility and a more flexible asset allocation. Villere likewise has similar long term management and performance, but even higher volatility and an equity sleeve that's nontraditional (mid cap growth vs. the usual large cap value).
If you're open to funds that go their own way, there's Bruce Fund (BRUFX). As with the funds above, it also has long term management and fine long term performance. But in common with those other alternates it also has higher volatility.
The Fidelity funds named, like many Fidelity funds, are very growth oriented, with what I'll generously call "substantial" turnover (over 150% annual).
If the focus is on portfolio similarity, something like American Beacon Balanced (AABPX) might fit the bill. Traditional large cap value, low turnover, long term management. Though it now has three subadvisor companies. That's common to Vanguard also, but not to Wellington fund - you'd hardly expect a fund named Wellington to be submanaged by anyone but Wellington Management :-)

My mindset was shocked by Black Monday 1987. After a year of investing into a plain stock mutual fund I saw over $2000. dwindle to about $800 overnight. What did I do? I pulled out my money and started educating myself. Within six to eight months I was back in the market, this time better diversified and I knew what to look for. I continued to read and listen to radio financial programs, including Bob Brinker. I didn't always see eye to eye with Mr Brinker but I built a foundation. I felt the tech bubble and saw the euphoria before it burst. My moves saved my portfolio a lot as I was only down about 18%. Then, years of dollar cost averaging. I learned that it is not the amount of money you earn, but the amount of money you spend that matters. Money not spent is more for investing.
I believe bleak moments in history show a path.

I think you mean well Dex but I can't help but wonder how that mindset would have worked coming out of Black Tuesday (Great Depression), Black Monday (crash of 1987) the last Great Recession or any number of hard times. Truly some will give up at anything but the majority will push through and find solutions.
Will it be as good as you feel you have it? Who knows. We all have different hopes and dreams. I live similar to Bee and am quite content. I travel extensively on half your yearly budget. Which one of us, you Dex, or me has more fun or enjoyment. What I'm trying to say is that it's all relative.
I have two sons in their 30's and two daughters in their 20's. I would never tell them to give up. When it gets tough they've been counseled to keep going. People find solutions.