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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • VG Login Failed
    I just don't want to have to ever again deal with this level of an issue in return for the now negligible benes a VG a/c provides.
    Here's a Bogleheads thread on how little is left of benefits for Flagship ($1M+) customers.
    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=416767
    VG still provides Flagship customers some (25/year) free trades on non-Vanguard TF funds. In the thread, someone called out an irony with this: "Funny part is that they are rewarding you only for keeping $ in a competitor's product."
    An amusing nautical observation in the thread:"by the time I saved enough money to throw around, Vanguard lost the HMS Vanguard and Flagship branding! Scudder is gone, the State Street clipper is foundering, and I don't have a family office ready for the Northern Trust anchor"
    Vanguard has deprecated "Flagship" much as Fidelity has done with "Private Client".
    Vanguard appears to still provide free wire transfers for Flagship customers. Fidelity does this for all customers. Schwab waives fees on up to three domestic wires per quarter for households investing at least $100K.
    Vanguard may still be the easiest (only?) way to buy Admiral class shares of actively managed funds. You can move these shares to many other brokerages and sell these shares there. But other brokerages generally won't let you buy additional Admiral shares.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 17 January 2025, reflecting risk and return metrics thru December. Flows are also posted through Friday, 17 January.
  • "Experts" Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2025 Edition
    People can make their own predictions for SP500.
    %TR = %Dividend_yield + %Earnings_growth + %Change_in_P/E .
    Over the next few years, IMO, yield 1-2%, earnings growth 5-8%, change in P/E -3% to -7% (fwd P/E).
    So, %TR range -1% to +7% annualized over the next "few" years; I am not telling how many is "few". Some stocks will do much better than this and some much worse. It would be a trading market.
  • WealthTrack Show
    First New Episode of 2025:
    Part 1 was broadcast on December

  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Year in Charts (01/17/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:29 Topics
    01:58 The Straw That Broke the Fed's Back
    15:38 Where the New Jobs Are
    22:10 Living in the Outlier
    34:23 What Will the Deficit Be in a Year?
    43:14 Are Bonds Still a Good Diversifier?
    54:26 Winter Reading
    56:27 NFL Playoff Predictions
    58:57 Rising Real Wages and Spike in Small Business Optimism
    Video
    Blog
  • Cathie Wood nods at Ark’s ‘challenged’ returns but insists on future profits
    ark rakes in ~$50M/yr in fees of which ~$30m goes to wood.
    wood is worth ~$300m, mostly derived from ark.
    her most noteworthy accomplishment is to only have a token part of her net worth actually invested in ark funds.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Resting 500s starter position in AMLP filled this afternoon. Happy to add more as appropriate.

    That fund and related holdings have had a nice run over the last 4 years. Quite the chart. I've got to think the trend is your friend absent a black swan event which would crater demand for energy from those sources.
    I don't see pipelines being a problem anytime soon, trend notwithstanding .. especially those with an emphasis on natgas. I hold large multidecade quantities already in a few names.
    I sold my Canadian pipelines earlier this week on tariff concerns, but would love to buy 'em back sometime.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Resting 500s starter position in AMLP filled this afternoon. Happy to add more as appropriate.
    That fund and related holdings have had a nice run over the last 4 years. Quite the chart. I've got to think the trend is your friend absent a black swan event which would crater demand for energy from those sources.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Resting 500s starter position in AMLP filled this afternoon. Happy to add more as appropriate.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Thanks, @WABAC. 3 is more than I was expecting but that is what M* says. He has 50% or more in 3-5 yr range. He has more than 30% or more below BB and about 43% in AA. I mention the credit rating only for edification and not to worry about anything.
    Of course, everyone in media is either talking their book, marketing, or entertaining themselves.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Took some extra cash and put it in FLOT after reading about it on here. Not much more than MM but as I tell my kids. It's just a couple clicks. I finally got my daughter to move money from a bank to VG MM after telling her the interest rate difference was ~$2/month compared to ~$80/month. Rates matter.
    I've got that t-shirt :)
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    May be do us a favor and post how PRWCX positioned its bond sleeve.
    On a separate but related note, Nomura is expecting 10 yr to hit 6% in 2025. Gloomy Bloomy says that is similar to TRP’ forecast, without saying what TRP’s forecast is.
    PRWCX is rated BB with a duration of 3.09. Corporate is ~50%, gov is ~38%, and the rest is cash. He has been on the shorter side for quite a while. And I note that he is not buying anything securitized.
    I'm not making any predictions where bonds are going. I don't think anyone knows.
    Jason Zweig says that the predictions are all about marketing: How You Can See Through Wall Street's Ritual of Wrong.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    May be do us a favor and post how PRWCX positioned its bond sleeve.
    On a separate but related note, Nomura is expecting 10 yr to hit 6% in 2025. Gloomy Bloomy says that is similar to TRP’s forecast, without saying what TRP’s forecast is.
    Edit: Not buying CUSIP 3134HA3J0 mentioned yesterday.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    A quick search of their site does not show these ETFs are out yet.
    I am interested in the Hedge Equity ETF so I can move PHEFX out of my IRA.
    Edit: The draft prospectus is dated Jan 17, 2025
    i'd like to buy it in my taxable account, too, altho it does seem a bit more volatile than PRWCX, regardless of hedging ability. will keep waiting.
  • Morningstar Discussions Chaos
    I’m in a one-year subscription. Was advised by many here it’s free at various sites. Color me dumb. There are periods, like the past 3 or 4 weeks, when I use M* 10-25 times in a day. More than most I’d guess. I use the performance numbers in inverse manner - looking for things with potential that haven’t appreciated a lot in recent years. Then try and determine whether that’s systematic or merely related to short-term macro forces. The holdings charts are good. I don’t like a lot of lower rated bonds and find their bond representations of great help.
    The one thing that comes with a subscription is the lengthy (but heavily redundant) written “Analysis”. Somewhat useful, although I’ve determined it’s too trendy. When LCORX (one instance) falls from “gold” all the way down to “neutral” inside of a year’s time, to me that reflects problems with their rating methodology and not the fund. While they occasionally rate individual stocks, coverage of CEFs is lacking.
    I’m getting my $$ worth based on the number of hits. No decision whether to continue. And the technical shutdowns (often on weekends) are a big concern. When you need data, it ought to be available. As I’ve said before, the portfolio trackers available at app stores for a couple bucks a month are vastly superior to anything web-based I’ve seen. Learning the new ropes, however, can be frustrating.
    PS - Before I subscribed to M* I used a Lipper site. But I began getting blocked, as the site required a subscription to worthless MarketWatch. Even took out an online subscription to Reuters News thinking free Lipper access would come along. It didn’t. If anyone has a 100% foolproof link to a free Lipper site (or an inexpensive subscription with access to such) I’d appreciate it. Might drop M* in such case.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold all the CEFs purchased in the first couple weeks of ‘25. The last one acquired, RLTY (bought 1/10), did best. All bounced after rates on the 10-year reversed trend earlier this week. Pocketed a 4-5% gain on the CEF collection (including 2 pending distributions). Rolled entire amount into RAPAX - a real assets fund (45% real estate) late yesterday. Equity exposure should end up north of 45% after dust settles. With the earlier mentioned dive into GAA yesterday I’m not planning any more excursions for a while. I think ‘25 will be a harder year to make money. Preservation paramount.