In order to pull off a trade war scenario with tariffs across the board, you would need a surgeon's precision in terms of implementation (timing) and allocating %'s.
Instead, we witness a butcher's plan - to force a sweeping movement all at once. Jam it out there. Reciprocal tariff rates range from 10% to 50%, with Asia getting the worst of it. Even an island inhabited mainly by penguins was included.
Thus far, China, Canada and Mexico have all responded with retaliation tariffs. The EU will respond this week.
There are not many positive scenarios for how this plays out. US factories cannot magically pick up the slack overnight, raw materials will still need to be imported, there will be supply chain issues galore, there will be inflation (rising prices), there could be jobs lost as a result, some countries will seek new trade partners, etc.
If a plan is well thought out and strategically delivered, it has a better chance to succeed. This one reads like a hatchet job based on 1 individual's pet project. There is a reason why he was attached to 6 bankruptcies.
This will simply be his largest one.

Glitches yesterday in Lipper drop. Flows finally showed up at 10:34 pm. About 14 hours late.
MFOP updated now through 31 March. MTD through 4 April. Flows through 4 April, as applicable.

@Sven. Since 28 March 2025, I'm liking TBills, CDs, IG Bonds. I do think that since inflation will not be demand driven, Fed may step in down the road. That said, IG Bonds have not been the place to be for years. Hopes of lower rates have just not materialized.
IG Corporate Bonds now paying 5-6% over10-20 years, callable though.
Fun fact. In May 2007, height of market back then, I bought my retirement home putting 20% down and took a 30-year fixed mortgage paying 6.5%! So, I think years of ZIRP since have probably distorted my perspective on rates.

"Of course there's no guarantee that things would line up the same way now."
This is what economist nobel prize Krugman said (https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055)
370 economists said the following in 11/2016 too
(https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/01/370-top-economists-publish-scathing-letter-against-dangerous-destructive-trump.html)
Nice article, but no solutions in sight.
How many presidents/Gov promised to cut Gov spending and employees and make commerce fairer for Americans? Plenty, and none delivered.
The closest one for generic solutions in my lifetime was Clinton, and why I voted twice for him. It can be done if both parties negotiate it and come up with compromise solutions. It's gone a long time ago, both parties and their supporters would not compromise.
Obama initiated Bowles-Simson. The results were good, IMO. Obama shelved it. Read (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Commission_on_Fiscal_Responsibility_and_Reform)
Angry posts will not change it.

Barron's published a good article about tariffs this week.
"The scope, speed and magnitude of the Trump administration’s tariff blitz left investors with a lot of questions.
But one point came through crystal clear: The post–World War II global world economic order is no longer."
"That is forcing a reassessment by countries on how to respond and pushing investors to reassess long-held assumptions about profit margins, investments, and inflation."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/why-the-tariff-damage-can-t-be-undone/ar-AA1CgMzM

Here’s what Fido’s analytics pulled up for me this morning.
Domestic Stock 16%
Foreign Stock 24%
Bonds 26%
Short Term 22%
Other 11%
After 2 days buying I’ve moved the equity position from 35% to 40%. The “other” remained stable at 11%. Most of that is in a real assets fund. Somewhat more aggressive than those numbers however, because a good chunk is in CEFs which employ leverage. Friday was my worst day in years, off 3.22% - slightly less than what PRWCX lost (- 3.37%).
I’m not someone looking for positive annual returns. Willing to lose money over shorter periods (1-3 years) as long as I have confidence in what I own. I believe that over 3-5 years I’ll do better than cash. Investing entails risk. All the fund prospectuses tell you that. @Sven is correct that we’re all different in our needs, expectations, dispositions and past experiences.
Question for the members: What do you think David Giroux was buying Friday?

stillers

@linter, thanks for your research and post, providing conclusive evidence of what most of us already knew, Teched1000 is a fraud.
His reply, with two links to nowhere (sic) and his rambling psycho-babble post about general investment BS and references back to 2020 and 2022 (Say what?) are testament to it. You don't have to have 35+ years of audit experience to know that 500+ word responses about everything but the simple question that was posed/issue that was raised indicate, well, in technical accounting terms, bullshit.

First, the 500+ words were my opinion about the markets. If you don't like it move on.
Second, you just crossed the line by saying "fraud, sic, psycho-babble, general investment BS" and should be banned from this site.
Third,I urged people to look at the links that were provided and see the truth.
But wait, stillers, the seeker of truth posted under 4 different names on different sites.
Karen/ Stillers / Arriba / Albie. Any respectable person uses the same one.
The last name was Karen. He claimed that he was married to a financial advisor and then continued to post dozens of opinions that supposedly came from his husband while they were his own.
When I revealed it and posted about it, he disappeared.

Stick to your portfolio allocations and don’t do anything rash during the market turmoil. Keep the money you may need in 1-2 years in “cash” (money-market funds, ultra-short-term bond funds, T-Bills, high-yield savings accounts, short-term CDs

Great reminder. We are happy to be there already. Thank you @yogobb for the summary. Look like I have homework this evening.

What a comprehensive article.
During that stagflation era, the S&P 500 was a net loser. Here's one "investment research" guy's piece on what worked and what didn't during that time; for stocks, "Overall, the 1970s was a lost decade for stock investors." Winners were Big Oil, commodities generally, real estate, precious metals, and some of the typical value stocks.
Of course there's no guarantee that things would line up the same way now.

My portfolio was at its balance point at the start 2025. It is now noticeably overweight in cash and bonds and noticeably underweight in broad based stock etfs and oefs. (In aggregate, my dividend focused individual stock investments look fine.) This new market era is only 2 1/2 months old. It's still too soon for this buy and hold guy to do anything. Maybe if the S&P 500 gets to be down by 20% I will take another look.

BS1000 is a troll. Please ignore him as he has contributes NOTHING useful to this forum!

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/04/trump-stagflation-presidents-history-00270981
This Economic Paradox Nearly Took Down Three Presidents. Is Donald Trump Next?
...."What made Ford, Carter and Reagan so similar was that stagflation was a problem that was visited upon them, owing largely to exogenous or structural developments they had scant ability to control. Trump’s looming stagflation crisis, on the other hand, is one of his own making. The public was hard enough on past presidents who failed to fix the problem. Time will tell how just harshly voters will appraise Trump for potentially creating it.
Through aggressive tariffs and extreme cuts to the government workforce — as well as health, science and social service funding — Trump’s policies threaten to directly increase production costs and consumer prices, fueling inflation and almost guaranteeing that the Federal Reserve Board will keep interest rates high. Additionally, the resulting economic uncertainty discourages business investments and disrupts supply chains, which can stifle economic growth, setting the stage for higher unemployment.
Why would anyone elect to do this? Trump maintains that, contrary to what most economists believe, it will reinvigorate American industry in his nationalist vision. But those around the president would do well to brush up on their 1970s history. It isn’t pretty. "

Apr 5, 2025 Episode:

Retired Treasury bond manager Robert Kessler has always been skeptical of Wall Street’s “stocks for the long term” mantra. He explains why he is completely out of stocks in his personal portfolio—and why you should consider doing the same.

“…it’s a huge, and usually fatal, mistake to design a portfolio without focusing primarily on those approximately 2% of times that will cause you to lose your nerve and violate Charlie Munger’s prime directive of compounding. As Munger, who is Warren Buffett’s partner, puts it: ‘The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.’
…..holding plenty of safe assets—like dull, low-yielding Treasury securities—and being prepared to see your risky assets get periodically, and hopefully temporarily, slaughtered.”
- William Bernstein

A rare look at my account because of what was written about me.
I don't deny or confirm anything more. Too much hassle and time-consuming.
2 attachments (using a snipping tool) from my biggest account directly from Schwab. The other accounts are similar. You can clearly see what I have done; it's the blue line. MM is over 99%.

Since I trade only/mostly bond funds for years, I can hold longer and get out in time.
My 3 best ideas funds in 2025 (HOSIX,NRDCX,CBYYX) were doing OK but nothing much.
I never invested directly in treasury funds; I play it thru HY Munis. Both categories volatility have been too high and why I missed it. That is not a concern because I have enough. My main goals are very low SD, positive yearly performance, and very small losses.
So, what do I see?
First, the big picture. Is it unique? Yes. Global tariffs are unique. Trump was serious all along. Is risk elevated? Yes, for a while already.
The VIX absolute number is important, but the speed is too. Most risky categories are down = another verification.
Bonds: high-rated bonds went up; this is good; it worked this time. Even HY munis did OK. They went up Thur and Fri. The MOVE (bond volatility) also moved very quickly to signal a sell.Another stress sign is RPHIX, it was down on Friday -0.21%.
Second, T/A was verified. We had a small bump in stocks, but it was a short-term one. I mostly use uptrends to verify buys or a switch. After a big meltdown, I use T/A to enter back. IMO, ceilings and floors/support don't make sense because both keep breaking; which is the real true one? Other T/A indicators are useless in predicting the future.
Markets didn't make sense to me for several weeks. When it happens, I sell because very low SD and capital conservation are my primary goals. My biggest "mistake" was that I thought that rates would not go down that much; after all, inflation isn't low enough, and new jobs are still doing OK. The Fed chair, Powell, reiterated it too with no rate cuts yet.
There is no way to know how much more. Selling early or based on an absolute % are my preferred methods because you are late after it starts going down. There is no way to know if it will go 8-10% or 20+%.
Research shows that missing the worst days is better than missing the good days, and most of these good days come after a big dive. See https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/14/missing-worse-best-days
BTW, I always sell a huge % early, but I buy back very quickly when my big picture risk + other indicators signal that.
See 2/29/2020
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2
See March 2022
https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1262/make-sense

Lipper slow this morning. Neither LGDF or LGFF has dropped yet, as of 7:10 am Pacific.

Even though I had cash to invest during the pandemic, I hesitated - caught between wanting to exit or take a chance to buy while the market was low. I chose to hold what I had and invested only small amounts at the edges, kicking myself later for the missed opportunity.
So even though this time *may be different* I deployed dry powder at the edges on both Thursday and Friday, keeping enough in reserve to see us through the next 2-3 years if necessary.
The U.S. is not going out of business, but we’re all aboard a ship run by fools.

Sounds similar to my thinking. My portfolio was off to one of its better starts with about a 4% gain thru the first 3 months of the year. Most (but not all) of that has been erased in 2 days. I too deployed dry power Thursday & Friday taking cash from 12% down to 4.5% at the end of yesterday. There’s considerable fixed income / bond exposure in the ”invested” portion, so that 4.5% cash weighting is a bit misleading. Still, it represents an uncharacteristically low level for me.
I’m struck by how universal across asset classes Friday’s selling was. By contrast, on Thursday utilities, consumers staples, most bonds were up. But Friday all hell broke loose. Little was up. (“Sell now! Look later!”) I’m thinking Thursday’s selloff was based more or less on fundamentals, while Friday’s selling was mostly sheer panic.

I will update the following as soon as the quarterly data are available,
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/63690/barron-s-funds-quarterly-2025-q1-april-7-2025#latest

Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q1–April 7, 2025)
https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
(Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2025/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/25)
(No Supplement – it’s all within the main issue)
(Congratulations to @LewisBraham who seems to be in charge of all features now)
Pg 18: A list of defensive, chaos-resistant funds. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
“Cash”: Money-market and ultra-short-term bond funds
Bonds: BND,CBLDX, FFIAX, FPFIX
Large-Cap-Value: ACMVX, GQHPX, SCHD, TWEIX
International/Global: CIVVX, LVHI, SGENX
Gold-Bullion: GLDM
Alts: BAMBX, PCBAX, QDSNX, QLENX
Pg 20: In 2025/Q1, gold, bonds and foreign stocks were winners. Large-cap-growth and cryptos were losers. SP500 peaked on 2/19/25. There were strong inflows into the money-market, ultra-short-term and intermediate-term bond funds. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
More on Funds & Retirement
Popular dividend-blend etf SCHD has increased its energy exposure to 21% after the recent reconstitution; the next sectors are consumers 19%, healthcare 15%. Alternative ETFs include VIG, VYM, DGRO.
INTERVIEW/Q&A – FUNDS. Sean SUN, Thornburg etf TXUG. The international growth fund has been hurt by its Chinese exposure, but those stocks are now rebounding. He looks for quality and durable growth at reasonable prices (GARP). The Fund includes emerging growth, mature growth and industry leaders. He doesn’t worry about risks to Taiwanese chip industry from China-Taiwan frictions. There are also carveouts for chips in the new US tariffs (25% for S Korea). The obesity drug sector will continue to have strong growth.
RETIREMENT.
GOLD is hot (relatively), but retirees shouldn’t chase it. Gold has had several short-term rallies, but it doesn’t have a good long-term record. For small positions, use gold-bullion IAU, GLDM, SGOL, GLD. In taxable accounts, higher collectibles capital gain rate of 28% applies. Goldminers are catching up in 2025 – GDX, GDXJ. Ignore the ads for Gold IRAs.
Stick to your portfolio allocations and don’t do anything rash during the market turmoil. Keep the money you may need in 1-2 years in “cash” (money-market funds, ultra-short-term bond funds, T-Bills, high-yield savings accounts, short-term CDs).
Barron’s weekend issue has CASH TRACK charts showing 4-wMA of flows.
https://i.ibb.co/4D8Q7Dm/Barrons-Cash-Track-040525.png
Q1 Top 5 Fund Categories (MFOP Quarterly Metrics)

Q1 Bottom 5 Fund Categories (MFOP Quarterly Metrics)

LINK

If you were sure that Tariffs have a high correlation to the stock market, why didn't you sell weeks ago?
Guess who is at 99+% in MM and hardly lost anything.

What a mealy-mouthed bit of flim-flammery-type verbiage that last line is. Here's the real skinny. On a different forum, on April 3, FD posted the following: "Sold already weeks ago. See (fd1000.freeforums.net/post/463/thread)." Unfortunately for him, a few weeks earlier, he had written:
Mar 15, 2025
Post by FD1000 on Mar 15, 2025 at 1:24am
Per my link
fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/48/2024-5-bond-oefs?page=5
I sold it all last Monday. See why above
On Thursday I bought it all back because it was reversed.
This is based on my style, goals, and using only bond funds
Yes, he sold, but then he bought everything right back. Going forward, if not backwards as well, probably best to not believe a word he says. The guy really is teched.

Lessee now... Californians are fortunate these days if they are able to find any insurance at all on their largest investment- their home. If you or funds that you invest in have any investment money in insurers you might be interested to know that they are having great difficulty in trying to determine the insurance risks due to increasingly vicious weather and increasingly deadly fires. You might also be interested in understanding the re-insurance aspects of insurance and how that affects the premiums of every insurance customer.
If you have any investments in energy you might just want to know what the potential effects of global climate change are likely to be on your investments.
If you have any investments in agriculture you might just want to know what the potential effects of global climate change are likely to be on your investments.
If you have any investments in the food supply chain you might just want to know what the potential effects of global climate change are likely to be on your investments.
If you are Trump or @FD1000 you have no clue as to how any of these things might be of interest to investors.