Oct 5th Episode:
Guest Abby Joseph Cohen - Part 2:

The tide went out during the pandemic and it exposed where the problems exist globally

ONE INVESTMENT
COHEN: THINK OUTSIDE THE U.S.
Long period of U.S. outperformance
International markets less expensive
Offer exposure to different industries
MSCI EAFE Index: Europe, Australasia & Far East
Large & mid-cap developed market stocks, excluding the U.S. and Canada

A related article on Deficits and the stock market:
deficits are horrible, but they are bullish

Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2024/Q3–October 7, 2024)
https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
(Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2024/Q3 and YTD to 9/30/24)
Pg L2: With the new CEO Salim RAMJI onboard, Vanguard is making some changes. Rather than lowering the ERs by tiny/small amounts across the board, it will move selectively in areas of active management with disruptive low ERs, with an initial push into active bond funds. It has also developed in-house capabilities for bonds, unlike its equity and allocation/hybrid funds that mostly use external advisors. In the passive area, the ETF giants are Vanguard and iShares/BlackRock, and mutual fund giants are Vanguard and Fidelity (not so well-known). But growth in the passive fund area is limited for these giant players. That game has been played and these parties have won.
Growth areas now are ETFs (tax-efficiency and market hour trading), bond funds (much larger and fragmented market compared to equities), alternatives (private-market is huge now as many unicorns and smaller companies remain private longer; but Vanguard won’t touch cryptos), RIA channels (but that won’t work without improving Vanguard’s poor M-F, 8-8 customer service). Rather than pushing into all areas at once, it will move selectively into areas with maximum disruptive low-cost effects.
Pg L7 In 2024/Q3, gold funds, China funds and bond proxies (bond funds, utilities, real estate. Dividend stocks) rallied due to geopolitics (for gold), the Fed rate cut and China easing. The value funds also did well. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
More on Funds & Retirement
INCOME. Dividend and dividend-growth stocks are coming back in favor after the Fed rate cut. US ETFs: SCHD, VYM, VIG, DIVB; China ETF: PGJ. Several stocks are also mentioned.
RETIREMENT. MEDICARE open enrollment period (OEP) is from October 15 – December 7. As there are many changes for Parts B, D, C/MA, don’t just throw away the recent notices you got about them; drug formularies may change too. Part D will have $2K out-of-pocket limit for covered drug costs (so, you will be out of luck if the drug isn’t covered); premiums will also go down a little. Medicare Advantage/C plans face higher costs and tighter government reimbursements, and many insurers are curtailing (reducing extra coverages, increasing premiums & deductibles) or exiting (Wellcare/Centene-CNC in 6 states) the MA/C market. Humana MA dropped a notch in its government rating and is discontinuing MA/C in 13 counties. If your MA/C plan is discontinued, and you don’t do anything, you will be enrolled in the original Medicare and will have the opportunity to get Medigap insurance without medical underwriting; normally, it’s hard to go back from MA/C to original Medicate due to the underwriting required for Medigap insurance. Make sure that your doctors are still in the plan.
Barron’s weekend issue has CASH TRACK charts showing 4-wMA of flows. A screenshot link will be included quarterly in the Summaries.
https://i.ibb.co/Chcbzrj/Barrons-Cash-Track-100524.png

Barron’s discontinued quarterly FUND CATEGORY PERFORMANCE table in 2024 that were used to highlight the best and the worst performing fund categories. The new MFOP Quarterly tool (see MFO, October 2024) can generate a similar table and the screenshot links for Top 5 and Bottom 5 follow. Both Barron’s and MFOP use Lipper fund databases.
Q3 Top 5 https://i.ibb.co/bJT3M6T/MFOP-Quarterly-Top5-100424.png

Q3 Bottom 5 https://i.ibb.co/CwV2Vx3/MFOP-Quarterly-Bottom5-100424.png

LINK

If DT wins, the first thing I’ll do is check this thread to see the reaction.
https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/legacy/sites/wyprmain/files/201611/sad-clinton-10.jpg

If DT wins, will you move back from Europe to Boston?

If DT wins, the first thing I’ll do is check this thread to see the reaction.
https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/legacy/sites/wyprmain/files/201611/sad-clinton-10.jpg

Terrible hurricane, more than 90 confirmed dead... I love my CATs, but I sold 80% of them on Friday. Strangely, they jumped up happily when Helene passed through: on Friday, EMPIX was up 0.19%, CBYYX was up 0.35%, and SHRIX was up 0.44%. Maybe they did not have time to respond, or people became optimistic that Helene hit the less populated area and was no longer a threat. But today, some sources estimated a total loss of about $20 billion, whereas others estimated total damage ~ $100 billion, though only a small part of it may hit CATs. Hopefully tomorrow will bring some clarity.

Of these three funds, only CBYYX seems to be available to retail clients at Schwab or Fidelity. Where are SHRIX and EMPIX available to retail clients (no access to RIA)?

Since DJT has no substantial underlying value, is the daily stock price really more an indicator of his current presidential election odds?
Freaks me out when it nudges higher. If he loses next month, does DJT go to $1 by Thanksgiving (gobble gobble)?

To @hanks point on inflation, the premiums for 2025 HC policies are out. I have been in the lowest premium policy and the premium for 2025 has increased again by over 15%.
May be we should start a new thread on HC insurance with renewals coming up.

The 'loveliest smile' phrase appears in a poem by WC's brother John H Bryant:
https://www.comfortspringstation.com/2021/09/29/autumn-years-loveliest-smile-printable/

Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Tuesday, 1 October, reflecting risk and return metrics thru 3Q24.

Anybody else notice the Union President ( and his son) make close to $ 1,000,000 a year? Dad owns a Bentley but recently sold his 60 foot yacht, was indicted on RICO charges for mob connections ( and one of his co-defendents was killed in mob hit).. nice!
The union’s constitution allows Daggett to call a strike without a vote of his members.
One third of NYC longshoremen make oer$200,000 with overtime, although starting pay is much lower
Seems to ignore GOP anti labor record and clearly favors Trump
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Daggett
President of company that owns the docks tweets regularly in favor of Trump and profane and disgusting tweets against Biden and Harris.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/03/port-strike-usmx-biden-democrats?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Seem to be two sides of the same coin

In response to several comments made in the discussion board:
CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Fund (“NRDCX”) intends to make monthly distributions.
The Fund was internally seeded by CrossingBridge and/or affiliates with $2MM. According to Bloomberg, NRDCX now has $9.57MM in AUM
Although NRDCX may seem a novelty to US centric investors, Nordic High Yield bond funds in the form of UCITs (European mutual find structures) are “alive & well”
A list of the top 50 UCITs focused on Nordic High Yield sourced by our DNB institutional salesman indicated over USD$20 billion in AUM on August 31, 2024 which represent around 1/3 of the estimated market size of the Nordic High Yield Bond Market (deemed below investment grade).
Fidelity platform is expected to be alive by Monday per John Conner but feel free to call customer service to complain.
If you have any additional comments or questions, please feel free to e-mail [email protected]

Sell timing is a challenge for me too. I personally rely on various relative metrics in the monthly update for MFO Premium (SMA, 3,6 month performance, etc..).
It isn't perfect of course but works reasonably well for me. Certainly worked well for me to exit BLNDX and BIVIX and get into QLEIX, QMNIX and CPIEX at the "right" time.
My benchmark is VWELX -- for me to hold a fund other than VWELX there needs to be a catalyst, either absolute return over a 1-3 year period, risk adjusted return (I use Sortino) or intentional exposure to a strategy (small caps, international, etc..)

If your sample size is 3 years, fine. Over 10 years BGHIX outperformed QQMNX with a CAGR of 8.18 vs 7.24 and a sharpe ratio of .84 vs .61 and max drawdown of 13.29 vs. 18.27 (it's this last number that's most concerning). All that being said, I've decided to take a chance on this one.

The reason I picked 3 years is because a new management team took over QQMNX in 2021. So far so good. But, "Past results are not a guarantee of future results....".
Good luck.

While the government said it won't interfere by ordering workers back under Taft-Hartley, my guess is that it used that power to pressure both sides to come to a temporary resolution.
1. Management was at +$3/hr increase each year for 6 years, but the union was asking +$5/hr. So, they were probably told to split the difference and settle for +$4/hr wage increases NOW.
2. Both sides will continue to haggle on other aspects until 1/15/24.
A long port strike could be very disruptive for the supply-chains and the economy. Pictures of people already hoarding supplies weren't good. Powell probably took note of these wage increases that were multiple times of his +2% average inflation target.

@Observant1: I think you are correct about no deal on automation or any scheme to prevent erosion of the bargaining unit. STM, that the suspension of the job action permits merchandise headed to retailers for holiday shopping, but that the sides have kicked the can on the really difficult issues. I believe there have been no disruptions in west coast ports. However, some shippers were already diverting traffic to the west coast in anticipation of a long strike; reversing those plans may create delays also.

@BaluBalu. For me it is always easier to make the buy decision then the sell. I have been at this since 1984 and my list of famous and successful managers that I have invested with is a long one. I could not prove it but I think I would be miles ahead if I had followed the Boglehead doctrine from the start. Less interesting but perhaps more lucrative. I know of one investor here who ALWAYS knows what to do and when to do it but he is the only one.

Yep. It is always on my selling when I lose money or profit because I do not know when to sell. That has always been a mystery.
I am a proof that buy and hold would have put me miles ahead because my taxable account multiplies at a faster rate than my IRA. On top of that, withdrawal from my taxable account is taxed at zero to 20% (federal) long term tax rate whereas withdrawal from my IRA is at ordinary income tax rate (I do not recall when I saw a less than 25% federal rate.)
We digress from the topic of the thread.

The best investing decision I ever made was to invest in Wellington as a young lad, held forever. All the rest is a hobby.

That's my worry with QQMNFX. Is the risk/reward that much better than a solid bond fund particularly if rates fall as "expected"?
BGHIX would be one example that I've been in since before the managers joined BrandywineGlobal.

Sorry, but a quick glance at BGHIX's Standard Deviation of 7.7% and a 3-year total return of only 4.2% doesn't qualify the fund to be on my personal watch list. If I invest in bond funds, I prefer funds like ICMUX or CBLDX, for example, that have significantly better risk/reward profiles than BGHIX.
By the way, QQMNX, which has a slightly higher SD than BGHIX, 8.6% v. 7.7%, has a 3-year total return of 14.4%, a difference of over 10%. That's "much better" than any solid bond fund I am familiar with.

If your sample size is 3 years, fine. Over 10 years BGHIX outperformed QQMNX with a CAGR of 8.18 vs 7.24 and a sharpe ratio of .84 vs .61 and max drawdown of 13.29 vs. 18.27 (it's this last number that's most concerning). All that being said, I've decided to take a chance on this one.

@hank Gal pal priced out a new GMC Yukon Denali last year. If memory serves me it was right around $104 K. Need - less to say, that purchase didn't happen! She bought a Yukon '24, still a bit pricey , but a lot less than $104K.
@ Old_Joe , You're right on, where I was coming from.

First raise a little over 10%, last raise ONLY a 6.78% increase. Almost makes me shed a tear or two.

@BaluBalu. For me it is always easier to make the buy decision then the sell. I have been at this since 1984 and my list of famous and successful managers that I have invested with is a long one. I could not prove it but I think I would be miles ahead if I had followed the Boglehead doctrine from the start. Less interesting but perhaps more lucrative. I know of one investor here who ALWAYS knows what to do and when to do it but he is the only one.

Yep. It is always on my selling when I lose money or profit because I do not know when to sell. That has always been a mystery.
I am a proof that buy and hold would have put me miles ahead because my taxable account multiplies at a faster rate than my IRA. On top of that, withdrawal from my taxable account is taxed at zero to 20% (federal) long term tax rate whereas withdrawal from my IRA is at ordinary income tax rate (I do not recall when I saw a less than 25% federal rate.)
We digress from the topic of the thread.