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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Maturing CDs
    DT, you know I like and respect you, but often it boils down to your wife and extremly limited options in a 10-mile radius.
    What would happen if there was only one lousy bank and nothing else?
    I think the best choices long term are mutual funds. If I'm gone, my wife has to drive to the local Schwab and meet with our local rep so he can sell all other funds and do the following.
    Another possibility could be that I grow old and decide to implement it anyway. I can do it all online.
    I'm not letting any bank (even not BofA + Merrill) or CU hold my money except 3-6 months cash.
    In order to make my wife's investment decisions easier, I set up a written plan for her to invest in only 3 funds. I only trust 2 choices indexes + Vanguard funds managed by Wellington for long term hold. Wellington Management is the oldest, it's conservative, team style, and not one dominant manager, with a very cheap expense ratio. Since our money isn't with Vanguard, we would have to own the more expensive funds(not Admiral), but it's still cheap.
    For a younger age, until age 75 and still having a taxable account...50% VWINX(40/60)...taxable=20% VWAHX(HY Muni)...30% VSMGX (60/40 invested in 2 US + 2 international indexes). Since HY Muni bonds are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 40/60.
    Older than 70-75 or taxable account is gone: 40% VWINX(40/60)...30% VWEHX(HY Corp)...30% VSMGX(60/40). Since HY Corp bonds are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 35/65(stocks/bonds).
    As long as I'm managing the portfolio, I will be using my style.
    FD, what you and your wife do in the future is a private and personal issue, that you will have to resolve. Other poster opinions will be based on their unique situations. I am absolutely sure, my wife and I will go down our own unique path, and I am absolutely sure my wife would not be willing to tolerate a "written plan" that involved mutual funds that "I" trust, or would tolerate. She will live her life, with "her" tolerances, and based on some arrangement that she accepts. The type of situation that she most often quotes to me, is that of what several of our lifelong close friends have--they have a "financial advisor" who works for an investing firm. Our friends do not have the investing skills to perform self-directed investing decisions. My wife will need a professional to hold her hand, attempt to meet her financial wishes, and try to avoid investing decisions. Our friends will be her "support system", and I will be a "cherished memory" who is not available any longer to help her.
    Now, the current topic has become the idea that it would be good to have all banking activities rolled into the brokerage umbrella that we have developed with Schwab. I know my wife, I know her needs, I know her frustration level, I know her financial skills, and I know what she would prefer. All she knows is banking activities, tied to local brick and mortar banks, located close to our residence. That is what our friends do with their banking as well, including a friend who uses Schwab for his investments. My wife would be very resistant if I tried to impose online banking, through Schwab brokerage. Others know what will work for them, maybe very different than my situation with my wife--that is fine and none of my business.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/1/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/1/25
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (35.4%, below average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (30.4%, below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (34.2%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +1.2% (below average). Investor concerns: Budget, debt, inflation, the Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (149+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (64+ weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds flat, oil up, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 29.41% (oversold). SSA WEP & GPO repeal signing on Jan 6. Carter's state funeral on Jan 9 - US stock market closed. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1808/thread
  • Maturing CDs
    @FD1000 : Last CG for VSMGX 27 as per Yahoo, ouch!! Maybe the info is bad?
    Added, 27appears wrong, realized $1.50 - unrealized $12.44
  • Where are the buyers?
    "Excellent" observations by the quacks.
    I didn't beat the SP500 in 2023-4. Not even close, and I don't need it.
    It's all at (https://fd1000.freeforums.net/post/446)
    I know that none of you can do it; just keep quacking. I already have heard it for at least 15 years.
    Remember, I was told that I don't have a clue; I will never retire, I will never make it in retirement and timing + low SD could not be done.
    The reality is completely different. I only need about 1% from my portfolio to keep my nice lifestyle for decades without any pension or an inheritance.
    Observant1: hindsight?
    FD: It's much easier to throw stones. Many of my trades and analysis are on my site. You may learn something.
    I also have several trades I made in the past several years where I sold before major meltdowns in 2020 and 2022 and when I bought back.
  • Narrowing down portfolio funds
    IMO, you must cut it down to 5 funds.
    Get used to a very limited number of funds and a max of only 2 fund switches per year.
    If not, that leads to more confusion, overlapping, overtrading, and making less money.
    Research shows that young investors usually do the above more than retirees.
  • Narrowing down portfolio funds
    In the linked table, highlighted are SWPPX/SP500, QQQ/Nasdaq100, AVUV/SC. Those are fine starting choices, but mix will matter - most in SWPPX, some in QQQ, little in AVUV.
  • Maturing CDs
    DT, you know I like and respect you, but often it boils down to your wife and extremly limited options in a 10-mile radius.
    What would happen if there was only one lousy bank and nothing else?
    I think the best choices long term are mutual funds. If I'm gone, my wife has to drive to the local Schwab and meet with our local rep so he can sell all other funds and do the following.
    Another possibility could be that I grow old and decide to implement it anyway. I can do it all online.
    I'm not letting any bank (even not BofA + Merrill) or CU hold my money except 3-6 months cash.
    In order to make my wife's investment decisions easier, I set up a written plan for her to invest in only 3 funds. I only trust 2 choices indexes + Vanguard funds managed by Wellington for long term hold. Wellington Management is the oldest, it's conservative, team style, and not one dominant manager, with a very cheap expense ratio. Since our money isn't with Vanguard, we would have to own the more expensive funds(not Admiral), but it's still cheap.
    For a younger age, until age 75 and still having a taxable account...50% VWINX(40/60)...taxable=20% VWAHX(HY Muni)...30% VSMGX (60/40 invested in 2 US + 2 international indexes). Since HY Muni bonds are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 40/60.
    Older than 70-75 or taxable account is gone: 40% VWINX(40/60)...30% VWEHX(HY Corp)...30% VSMGX(60/40). Since HY Corp bonds are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 35/65(stocks/bonds).
    As long as I'm managing the portfolio, I will be using my style.
  • Narrowing down portfolio funds
    My son just turned 31 and I'm recommending 100 percent stocks for him until he gets to age 50 or so.
    SCHD, I note from your list. If you're taking dividends, be sure to reinvest them. Otherwise, just choose funds which do not pay dividends. But reinvest all profits. TCAF is run by David Giroux. I'd say get into that one, before anything else. Giroux has the best long-term track record in the business.
    AVLV looks attractive. "...Avantis' managers build this portfolio from stocks that roughly land in the top 90% of the US market by market cap, with a few exceptions. They exclude REITs and regulated utilities..." (Morningstar.) I have come to agree with David Sherman of Crossingbridge, who asserts that REITS are just plain a bad investment. The shares can just be watered-down, anytime.
    I'll let some others add, here.
  • Where are the buyers?

    It's about time that ol' FD had some competition! :)
    Well, with the S&P up 24% last year, you can bet FD easily doubled that! (Probably 50-75% )
    I sit right at 35% equity exposure - mostly unpopular stuff - half of it non-U.S.. Don’t want to make a lot, just a little. I can’t ever recall being much lower than 35% - maybe in the lead up to the 2000 episode. Long time ago.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    NOTE: This is the FINAL report for 'The week that was'. All numbers for the shortened week and final totals for the 2024 year ending data is accurate, to the best of my knowledge, from sources.
    FOR YOUR USE: Most of you are familiar with M* and the performance page. This LINK is set with FDGRX. Scroll down to the 'Trailing Returns' section for the most current data. BE SURE to verify the DATE of the data. Usually, the new data is available within 8 hours of the markets closing.
    ADD: This is directed towards possibilities into the new government period arriving January 20, and monetary/fiscal actions.
    --- Bond vigilantes are investors who sell government bonds or threaten to do so to force policy changes and discipline excessive government spending:
    --- Explanation
    Bond vigilantes use their market power to drive up borrowing costs for the government. This can happen when they protest against expansionary monetary or fiscal policy.
    --- Origin
    The term was coined by economist Ed Yardeni in the 1980s to describe traders who sold Treasury bonds to protest Federal Reserve policies that were considered too inflationary.
    --- Example
    In the "Great Bond Massacre" from 1993 to 1994, US 10-year yields increased from 5.2% to over 8% due to concerns about federal spending. The Clinton administration and Congress responded by reducing the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to around 4% by 1998.
    NOTE:
    My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances.
    FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
    W/E December 31 , 2024. Bond NAV's Most positive. FINAL REPORT
    --- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find most bond sectors HAD SMALL GAINS for this 2 day week's pricing to END the 2024 year. The majority of bond sectors were UP for the 2 days of the week. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was mostly UP. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week/year.
    A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.

    NEXT:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 30 - December 31, 2024
    ***** This week (Wednesday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.28% yield (+4 basis points for the week). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a positive .04 basis change in yield for the week.
    --- AGG = +.27% / +1.31% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.08% / +5.94% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.21% / +3.92 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +.39% / +1.81% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.40% / -.64% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.17% / +1.65% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = +.17% / +4.74% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = +.25% / +4.30% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +.15% / -4.80% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +.27% / -8.06% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +.67% / -12.74% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +.37% / -16.13% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -.61% / +27.55% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +.65% / -35.93% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +.31% / +1.85% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- USFR = +.06% / +5.46% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
    --- LQD = +.18% / +.86% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- MBB = +.26% / +1.31% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.10% / +8.20% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = +.13% / +7.97 % (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.56%/+4.94% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = +.26% /+1.31% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = +.28%/+5.54% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = -1.07% / +10.06% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +.67% / +7.24% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.28% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Where are the buyers?
    Happy New Year everyone. May you have a prosperous 2025!
    Most of my buys are in bonds, not so much stocks. Perhaps when stocks are at better prices in 2025.
  • Risk Scale
    Only money market fund and treasury will not loss value in severe drawdowns. There is always risk investing in stocks and bonds. The realistic question is what is the recovery duration. During spring 2020 COVID drawdown, just about all bonds fell. Many fully recovered within one to six months after the FED cut the rate by 75 bps. Without the cut, the recovery would take take much longer.
  • Maturing CDs
    Fidelity has had bill pay/checking in its "regular" brokerage accounts for decades, so there weren't many reasons to move to, or add, a CMA account when Fidelity introduced that.
    Though the CMA account does have a few unique or different features: FDIC bank sweep (optional; also available for IRA accounts), Cash Manager (like overdraft protection), and full reimbursement for ATM surcharges. Only Premium ($500K AUM) and above customers get reimbursed ATM surcharges in "regular" Fidelity accounts.
  • Maturing CDs
    A 50k CD came due today. Replaced it with a Treasury maturing 11/30/26 @ 4.24%.
    I have to shop in a couple days when my JPM bond / CD (I do not remember which one) gets redeemed (called).
  • Maturing CDs
    "Why not use a brokerage for banking services?"
    Actually, we do. Schwab Bank is very convenient as an adjunct to Schwab Brokerage. ...
    What I had in mind was skipping the bank altogether and just using the brokerage. One less account to worry about, no "bucket brigade" to move money from an outside institution to Schwab brokerage and from there to Schwab Bank.
    It seems to be little known, but at Schwab you're supposed to be able to write checks
    https://www.schwab.com/content/how-to-order-new-debit-credit-card
    and pay bills
    https://www.schwab.com/content/how-to-set-up-biller
    from a Schwab brokerage account without using a Schwab bank account. You get a whopping 0.05% either way.
    I've not tried this (no taxable accounts at Schwab) so I can't attest to whether this actually works.
  • Maturing CDs
    A 50k CD came due today. Replaced it with a Treasury maturing 11/30/26 @ 4.24%.
  • Maturing CDs
    Use banks or CU for banking services. Use brokerages for brokerage banking services.
    Why not use a brokerage for banking services?
    In 1977, Merrill Lynch took a gamble with a concept known as a CMA (cash management account). This blending of banking and broker services into a one-stop-shop for financial services ...
    https://www.sri.com/press/story/75-years-of-innovation-cash-management-account-cma/
    Several brokerages offer cash management services. You can write checks and use a debit card from a Schwab brokerage account - you don't need Schwab bank for this.
    https://www.schwab.com/content/how-to-order-new-debit-credit-card
    You're not going to get a safe deposit box or take out a loan at a brokerage. But for your basic cash management and notary services, ISTM a brokerage can do just as well. And by using a brokerage for these services, that's one less account to have to deal with.
  • Where are the buyers?
    https://www.axios.com/2024/12/31/stock-market-2024-gains-sp500-nasdaq
    -The S&P 500 was up 24% in 2024, compared to a 24.2% rise in 2023. It was the strongest two-year performance since the late 1990s.
    -The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 30.8%, versus 43.4% last year.
    -The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 12.8%, compared to 28.4% in 2023.
    -The Russell 2000, an index of small-cap stocks, gained 10.9%, compared to 2023's 15.1%.
  • Maturing CDs
    A couple of brief notes regarding credit unions:
    - There is a shared network of brick and mortar CUs so that you can conduct some transactions in many locations (if your CU participates) even though individual CUs tend to have small footprints.
    https://www.coop.org/Solutions/Engage/Co-op-Shared-Branch
    - As Yogi noted, some CUs are privately insured through ASI. In 2002, Patelco moved to ASI, though five years later, it returned to NCUA. In 2002, ASI covered deposits up to $250K while NCUA coverage was limited to $100K (it's now $250K). Differences between ASI and NCUA can be more than just private vs government backing.
    msf, I failed to mention that Kelley Credit Union stated that in addition to the $250,000 NCUA deposit insurance, per account, per owner, identical to FDIC, they also have an additional insurance coverage through a private insurance company, that doubles the NCUA/FDIC deposit coverage. How many banks do you think do that?