Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
Stocks Set for Last Hurrah as Year Draws to Close
(Snip)
2024 will determine whether I stick with PSTL. David Sherman warned about share dilution in the REIT sector, and that DID happen in '23. Very attractive dividend, though, and lots of room for growth.
9% undervalued. (Morningstar.)
1-year return: +6.74%.
Price/Cash Flow 10.37%
Yield: 6.52%. Payout ratio: 728.85% is NUTS. What gives with that?
@Crash, payout ratio uses “dividends” divided by GAAP earnings.
The best measure of “earnings” (or distributable cash flow) for REITs (due to accounting rules like depreciation etc. which don’t affect cash flow) is funds from operation/adjusted funds from operation (FFO/AFFO)….a quick Google search found PSTL’s AFFO is $1.01, with a distribution of 9
5 cents. That’s a mid 90’s% payout ratio, which doesn’t allow much retained capital for growth (meaning debt or equity issuance will be required for growth).
Sorry if you know all of this! :)
Happy New Year
A good explanation. Thank you!
EDIT to add: Just remembered that REITS are REQUIRED to pay-out something like 90% of profits, yes? So, then......
Stocks Set for Last Hurrah as Year Draws to Close
(Snip)
2024 will determine whether I stick with PSTL. David Sherman warned about share dilution in the REIT sector, and that DID happen in '23. Very attractive dividend, though, and lots of room for growth.
9% undervalued. (Morningstar.)
1-year return: +6.74%.
Price/Cash Flow 10.37%
Yield: 6.52%. Payout ratio: 728.85% is NUTS. What gives with that?
@Crash, payout ratio uses “dividends” divided by GAAP earnings.
The best measure of “earnings” (or distributable cash flow) for REITs (due to accounting rules like depreciation etc. which don’t affect cash flow) is funds from operation/adjusted funds from operation (FFO/AFFO)….a quick Google search found PSTL’s AFFO is $1.01, with a distribution of 9
5 cents. That’s a mid 90’s% payout ratio, which doesn’t allow much retained capital for growth (meaning debt or equity issuance will be required for growth).
Sorry if you know all of this! :)
Happy New Year
Falling knife, are you willing to get cut ! Some thought my 10% per fund too high. Than
@Roy chimes in @ 9
5% with Giroux.
All my funds are
team-managed. None of them can compete with a rock star.
”Well, it's one for the money, Two for the show, Three to get ready, Now go, cat, go!”
Bruce Fund (BRUFX) The
Sept 2023 portfolio has 3
5.9% in fixed income and cash. That breaks down into:
2.6% a
STRIPS maturing in 2036 (12 year duration),
1.0% a STRIPS maturing in 2041 (17 year duration),
1.1% a STRIPS maturing in 2049 (2
5 year duration),
2.8% health care convertible bonds maturing in 2024 (or earlier, in default),
28.4% money market funds
That's a barbell, with nearly all the weight on the short end (including the MMF). Very conservative. Just a little speculation on interest rates falling, in which case the STRIPS will pop.
Updated MFO Ratings and Flows Thru April ... FLOW Updates Daily The year turned out pretty good! The Great Normalization Bull is now in its 15th month. And, like has happened with each bull market for the past 100 years, the S&P 500 has recovered all previous drawdown and sits at a new all-time high, month-ending December.
Falling knife, are you willing to get cut ! @hankSince we've moved cash we had parked in a MM and a couple bond funds to TRP Cap App & Income (PRCFX), we are back to 9
5% with DG. 17 years and counting. Whenever I've moved some dollars away from DG through the years it has always cost me money.
Falling knife, are you willing to get cut ! Proportions: I continue to be severely overweight PRWCX, approaching 40% of my stuff. 5 single-stocks = 14% of total. Gonna bring it down to 4, rather than 5. I guess there's no magic recipe for avoiding "Di-worse-ification."
Stocks Set for Last Hurrah as Year Draws to Close REITs.
I recall
@davidmoran likes FRT. Still 26% undervalued (Morningstar.)
Stock Rover pegs the target price @$107.
50, just 4.32% from where it sits at the end of 2023. I continue to track it.
2024 will determine whether I stick with PSTL. David Sherman warned about share dilution in the REIT sector, and that DID happen in '23. Very attractive dividend, though, and lots of room for growth.
9% undervalued. (Morningstar.)
1-year return: +6.74%.
Price/Cash Flow 10.37%
Yield: 6.
52%. Payout ratio: 728.8
5% is NUTS. What gives with that?
Falling knife, are you willing to get cut ! Ahh, the age-old difference in opinion on how many positions are ideal in a portfolio. Many go for the perceived (index like?) comfort of volume and others can be decisive and have less holdings. Personally, I do think having many or "toe hold" positions can lead to more in-and-out decisions and therefore reduced return. I, admittedly and begrudgingly, tend to go both ways. I feel very comfortable with a few balanced funds making up the bulk of my portfolio. On the other hand, do I need 3 SC funds and 3 LC's? No. But I can be undeceived at times. If I can exist with ~15 funds, I'm feeling pretty good about myself.
I don’t think it’s about “making more” or how many is the “best number”. Might be if someone trades too much as
@MikeM says. I just think it’s a lot easier to hold a few large equally weighted positions. (Obviously stocks would need to be in smaller amounts). I got tired of the hassle and associated tracking / record keeping / trading a large inventory requires. As for specific funds, I have opportunities today I never dreamed of while largely parked at TRP. So it hasn’t been hard at all settling on a few I think I understand well and am willing to sink 10% into.
It’s never “set in cement”. If you have 10% in a somewhat aggressive fund that’s done well for a while - maybe shift the 10% into a similar but more conservative fund to protect the gains. Conversely, if some area of investments (equities, commodities, bonds) falls sharply, you might want to shift that 10% into a more aggressive holding to take advantage of lower valuations.
No. I don’t believe there’s any “right” number of funds. A lot of ways to skin a cat!
Falling knife, are you willing to get cut ! Ahh, the age-old difference in opinion on how many positions are ideal in a portfolio. Many go for the perceived (index like?) comfort of volume and others can be decisive and have less holdings. Personally, I do think having many or "toe hold" positions can lead to more in-and-out decisions and therefore reduced return. I, admittedly and begrudgingly, tend to go both ways. I feel very comfortable with a few balanced funds making up the bulk of my portfolio. On the other hand, do I need 3 SC funds and 3 LC's? No. But I can be indecisive at times. If I can exist with ~15 funds, I'm feeling pretty good about myself.
Falling knife, are you willing to get cut ! I don't know if I would sleep well with 10>% in a fund. At one time that may have occurred. Only T bills & notes in that 10% or higher range as of late.
Happy New Year to All, Derf
P.S.
@hankHow did you make
out with Draft Kings.
Last I saw up 74% on the year !
@Derf. As I’ve remarked before, the last (DKNG) buy was at around $10 early in the year and I dumped it for a $3 - $4 p/s gain in only a few weeks. (Never could stand success.) Current price: $3
5I have no desire to own any gaming stock - especially this one. Have commented elsewhere on the extent these buzzards now go to
steal from lure-in unsuspecting lower income folks and empty their pockets (with assorted bells & whistles under the guise of “gaming”) . They’ve expanded far beyond being a simple way to put a $
5 bet on your favorite team. Hell - I now believe this type of predatory practice should be outlawed.
It’s your money
@Derf - But 10% in a single fund does not strike me as outrageous. Of course it depends on which fund. From the early 70s until mid 90s I was
100% in a good diversified global equity fund from Templeton (later Franklin/Templeton). In the early going when you’re DCA ‘ng in it’s probably an OK approach.
The week that was, global etf's, various categories + heat map. Week ending May 17, 2024. Hi
@MikeM et al You're welcome. The graphic link I use goes to Barcharts and doesn't include distributions. Generally, this is not a large problem to still allow for a quick and dirty look at an etf sector performance. The longer the time frame, and/or larger distributions begins to NOT provide correct information for 'total return'. An example especially shows in the fixed income areas or etf's that may provide high dividend rates.
An example: The Barcharts indicates a
52 week gain of 4.3%. This works as an 'almost' YTD for this last trading week of the year; BUT the real YTD is 9.4% from both M* and Stockcharts, which include the total returns with distributions. One may always go to the source (issuer) of the etf for correct return data.
An example of smaller total distribution amounts is for the QQQ etf. M* and Stockcharts indicate a total return for 2023 of
54.9%, and Invesco (QQQ) indicates
54.84% YTD, while the Barcharts link indicates
53.7% YTD.
However, the Barcharts link I use still offers the best broad range of etf performances that I am aware of. And YES, we may all look back upon 2023 and wonder why didn't I/we invest in that sector. :)
I will add a note in future posts.
Falling knife, are you willing to get cut ! Changes under 10% have minimal effect, and under 5% are meaningless.
That's my approach to investing/allocations as well. For me, generally anything under 10% is either a starter position, placeholder, or a speculative thing -- I don't expect anything under 10% to move the needle much either way unless it's levered (which I don't use anyway).