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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    Adding to Pressup's comment: The adulation for CDs is turning into lost opportunity cost in hindsight. Not the once in a lifetime proclaimed by some. Take a MFO favorite RSIVX bond fund for example: up +9.3% the past year. 3.4% in the past 3 months. Even the very conservative RPHYX (discussed as a cash alternative) is up 5.7% 1y and 1.6% 3mo.
    @MikeM, seems to me that depends on how comfortable you are with where you want to be. Some folks might feel the need to accumulate more. Some folks might be fine with where they are. Everyone has their own mode of travel.
    Everyone should check their arithmetic periodically.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    Adding to Pressup's comment: The adulation for CDs is turning into lost opportunity cost in hindsight. Not the once in a lifetime proclaimed by some. Take a MFO favorite RSIVX bond fund for example: up +9.3% the past year. 3.4% in the past 3 months. Even the very conservative RPHYX (discussed as a cash alternative) is up 5.7% 1y and 1.6% 3mo.
  • BlackRock and the limits of corporate "principles"
    From today's Wall Street Journal:
    One of crypto's erstwhile doubters is helping to take bitcoin mainstream. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, called bitcoin "in index of money laundering" back in 2017 ... today he says he is a big believer in bitcoin. His firm managers the fastest-growing bitcoin fund and has forged partnerships with some of the largest players in the digital-assets industry. (Vicky Ge Huang, "BlackRock Does U-Turn on Bitcoin," 3/11/2024)
    John Stark, a former SEC enforcement chief, cuts to the chase:
    The irony is transparent and glaring in that it's supposed to be decentralized, yet what is more decentralized than a Wall Street behemoth who is taking fees from every single possible angle and peddling something that nobody understands.
    (N.B. he might be speaking ironically when he asks "what is more decentralized than BlackRock" or the article might contain a typo, which the intent is the bitter but non-ironic "which is more centralized than BlackRock?")
    BlackRock's ETF gathered $10 billion in assets faster than any other OEF or ETF ever.
    - - - - -
    On the flipside, remember the days of “climate-proofing portfolios is a key consideration for all asset owners” and "climate risk is investing risk" (2020)?
    Yeah, about that: BlackRock is liquidating sustainability funds, withdrawing from the Climate Action coalition, banning the use of the term "ESG" ... and is "the top institutional investor in fossil fuels, holding about $133 billion in shares and bonds of the top oil and gas companies, and at least $85 billion in coal" ("BlackRock's climate actions are so milquetoast they're making no one happy," QZ.com, 12/8/2022).
    Which is, at base, the argument for government action. Even the largest corporations live in deathly fear of missing out on $1.50 in potential profits. The lazy defense of which is to cite Milton Friedman's 50-year-old declaration that the only legit purpose of a corporation is to maximize profits, the so-called "shareholder theory." Rather a number of people (paywall, sorry) have since noted that Friedman's political preference isn't actually law, much less eternal law. (Google "Milton Friedman was wrong" if you want the potpourri.) Likewise, there is no legal obligations (i.e., fiduciary requirement) to maximize profits. Corporate decisions are driven by executive compensation (the average compensation package for the CEO of an S&P 500 company is about $15 million/year, up 1500% since I graduated Pitt in 1978) which is tied to corporate profits.
  • TIAA outage
    There is already a thread for MOVEit breach. This thread is on Infosys/McCamish outage that has been resolved at TIAA.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/168579/#Comment_168579
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Thanks. Do we have NLR holders in the house? I sold a while ago PCE 5% lower but one can play for bump in price when first Div is declared. Now own SWX.
  • WealthTrack Show
    Additionally, Yardeni see a broadening of the market beyond the large tech. He recommends S&P 1500 (so to include the smaller caps). Likely there is “no landing” this year since US economy is moving along well and low employment.
    Yardeni is the most bullish comparing to the most that I come across.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    FWIW, not that it's a valid comparison, but since such a comparison was mentioned, our CD ladder with its just below 4% APY, outperformed GQGPX with its 3.4% average annual return over the past 3-yr period.
    ;-)
    It’s good you limited the GQGPX vs CD ladder comparison to 3 years, since at 5 years you’d be facing an 10.68% annualized bogey for GQGPX. So yes, it’s not a valid comparison.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    Thing to remember is that MPT stats alpha, beta, R^2, r depend on the benchmark used.
    But SD is independent of the benchmark. So, it may be used to compare volatility of things that are different, i.e. different asset classes.
    A ratio of SD can be found using the SD of a benchmark that could be SP500, EAFE, MSCI EM, etc.
    Even so,
    SD/SDbenchmark = beta/r,
    or, SD = (beta/r)*SDbenchmark.
    It is rather remarkable that the 3 quantities in the right-hand side depend on the benchmark used, but the left-hand side, SD, is independent of the benchmark.
    So, use SDem/SDsp500 OR SDem/SDmsciem.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    ...see zero reason to comp (EM) the performance to the S&P 500. It's comparing Apples to Mandarins... one is entitled to their opinion and whether it's 9.36 or 10 %, still beats Bonds, Cash, CD's despite their inflated yields currently
    I agree with you @KHaw24. Comparing every stock sector, geographical area and cap-space investment to the SP500 is just, well, silly. With that reasoning, why diversify? All those different style investments are supposed to be different and excel at different times and blend together long term.
    All that said, at the ripe old age of 70, I now see no reason to hold specific EM funds myself. But that's just my comfort zone and opinion.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    FWIW, not that it's a valid comparison, but since such a comparison was mentioned, our CD ladder with its just below 4% APY, outperformed GQGPX with its 3.4% average annual return over the past 3-yr period. It currently has a 5+% APY, but it is not intended to compete with stock investments, rather with bonds.
    ;-)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    GRID is great!.... 20% Utilities. Tracks an opaque index NASDAQ OMX Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure QGRD, which has beaten global equities recently
    https://cleanedge.com/data-dive-charts/Smart-Grid-Infrastructure-vs-Nasdaq-Global-0
    NLR "nuclear power" is 50% Utilities based on another opaque index MVIS® Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index. Supposedly these companies have to get 50% of revenue from nuclear power related activities, but I think they fudge it saying "expected to get"
    Uranium is on fire in the last year or so
    Of course now it has hit the headlines, it will all fall apart
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/07/ai-data-centers-power/
    Has anyone looked to see if any active mangers missed Utilities with significant exposure to wildfires?
    I read the pole that started the fire in Texas was so rotten it had a sign on it that said "Do not Climb" Utilities will have to get a lot quicker a in repairing their stuff, or smarter in turning off the power with high winds. A switch that cuts power automatically with high winds or when line falls would be a great idea
  • Reminder: Don’t forget interest from savings bonds on your tax return!
    I-Bonds can only be bought and sold online through Treasury Direct.
    You can still get paper bonds with your 1040 refund (up to $5,000 per year). But you have to hope that they don't get lost in the mail (one of mine did). Then to cash them in you either have to mail them to TreasuryDirect or try to cash them at a bank.
    Here's Rob Copeland talking with Kai Ryssdal (Marketplace) about the problems he had doing just that.
    "what’s happened over the past few years is a lot of banks are starting to reject [savings bonds]. ... when a bank does that transaction [cashes bonds] for you, they make exactly zero cents. And in many cases, these banks just don’t want to do it anymore."
    https://www.marketplace.org/2023/10/12/got-old-savings-bonds-lying-around-good-luck-cashing-them/
    And the full NYTimes article that Copeland wrote:
    When Did Cashing Savings Bonds Become So Impossible?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/07/business/cashing-savings-bonds.html
  • Reminder: Don’t forget interest from savings bonds on your tax return!
    If you inherit savings bonds, make sure that you know whether the deceased has already paid taxes on savings bond interest up to the date of inheritance.
    That can happen in two ways.
    https://www.irs.gov/publications/p559#en_US_2023_publink100099599
    1. Investors (including the decedent) have the option of declaring interest income annually. There's little benefit I see in that, unless the investor is expecting to be in a significantly higher tax bracket when the savings bonds are finally sold or they mature.
    2. The person (executor, administrator) filing the decedent's final return can choose to include all interest up to date of death in the decedent's income for the year of death. This can be advantageous: the decedent is likely retired and may be in a lower tax bracket than the heirs and/or taxes the decedent pays reduces the size of the estate. That matters if the estate is large enough to be taxed (estate tax or inheritance tax).
    If taxes on some of the interest was paid by the decedent, then on your 1040 Schedule B (interest income) you declare the full amount on your 1099-INT, subtotal all the interest, and then below the subtotal you include a line for the taxes already paid:
    U.S. Savings Bond Interest Previously Reported (dollar amount)
    https://www.irs.gov/publications/p550#en_US_2022_publink100010051
    If you're an executor, don't forget about #2 above.
  • "Markets have false sense of security"
    Lipper categorizes DIVO as an equity-income fund. In that category it is an MFO "Great Owl." At the present time it is writing calls against four stocks in its portfolio rather than the entire S&P 500.
    For me, JEPI does not have enough of a track record. And I am not sold on the idea of writing calls against entire indexes.
    If I set MFO premium to a five-year window, DIVO's APR out performs all of the other ETF's in the Options Arbitrage category, and with respectable Martin and Sortino scores. Over its seven year history it outperforms its competitors, and has the best Martin and Sortino scores. If one only looks back a year, then DIVO and JEPI are getting smoked by the majority of etf's in the category.
    For my purposes, DIVO was competing with AMFFX rather than JEPI. DIVO is cheaper than AMFFX. DIVO versus AMFFX.
    Yet another dinky linky.
  • Balanced ETF funds that compare to CGBL
    Every fund in my portfolio fills a niche. I have owned the Wellington funds for more than 25 years but WBALX for example has a bond duration of 1.8 yrs vs the almost 7 years in the Wellington funds. Its bond ratings are also higher ,so again it fits the more conservative part of a portfolio.
  • "Markets have false sense of security"
    Well, there are @Devo, DIVO, Davo, Davos.
    DIVO is a call-writing funds. It's lags the industry giant JEPI and is more expensive too. In the up markets like this, it may be covering its calls, or its stocks are being called away. But that is the deal - you give up some upside for options income. Here are the charts for JEPI, DIVO, IVV/SP500.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=JEPI&compare=DIVO,IVV&id=p47538115979
  • Balanced ETF funds that compare to CGBL

    From my following and researching CGBL, I have been pleased with its behavior. Its fixed income sleeve Core Plus. The only reason I have not invested in it is because of potential high distributions from its fixed income sleeve (bonds with market discounts) if I were to put it in a taxable account. But may be with good inflows, some of that distribution will be picked up by shareholders coming in later. Any thoughts?
    Morningstar reports that its fixed income securities have an average discount (weighted) of under 1%. That is, its average weighted fixed income price is 99.27. That's essentially par. In comparison, on average, moderate allocation ETFs have portfolios with an average discount of 7% (92.90 weighted fixed income price).
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/cgbl/portfolio
    (select "Bond" next to "Portfolio" toward upper left)
    What is your concern with CGBL discount bonds? It looks like the ETF's high interest is coming from the coupons, not any discount. Average coupon yield is 5.32% vs. 3.90% for its peers. It's coupon, not discount, accounting for high YTM.
    For whatever discount is due to OID, the fund declares and distributes accretion (progression toward par value/reduction of discount) annually. Consequently at maturity all OID is accounted for. In short, OID bonds do not realize a big gain at maturity or sale.
    Market discount is different. The rule is that investors (whether individuals or funds) can treat it the same way as OID (declaring it as annual income, gradually accreting), or defer all accretion (gain) until maturity or sale. It sounds like the latter is what you are concerned about.
    However, this portfolio has a roughly counterbalancing amount of premium bonds (weighted average price is 99.27). So ISTM gains on discount bonds (generally treated as ordinary income) could be balanced out by losses on premium bonds (sometimes treated as negative ordinary income).
    The links below give details on taxation of discount and premium bonds and how funds are required to handle OID "phantom interest" - what the last reference calls a "situation".
    Schwab, When Should You Pay Taxes on Discount Bonds?
    Baird, Tax Treatment of Bond Premium and Discount
    K&L Gates, Introduction to Original Issue Discount
    (last couple of slides describe how OID bonds in a mutual fund portfolio creates a "situation")
  • Balanced ETF funds that compare to CGBL
    @fundly. +100. DO NOT LOSE IT. you speak the truth. If you use portfolio visualizer try a 50 / 50 mix of vanguard Wellesley and Wellington which becomes a 50/50 allocation. Its worst year is less than WBALX and the return is much higher. And of course the ER is way less.
    [snip]
    I know of a poster on another investing board whose portfolio is a 50/50 mix of Wellesley and Wellington.
    This approach is simple to execute, has low expenses, and good risk-adjusted past performance.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=60vGLZ2IHHbVmPAjuywMqr
  • Balanced ETF funds that compare to CGBL
    I like and own WBALX for the more conservative part of the portfolio. 50/50 and quite conservative. Small 230K AUM. When the s--t hits the fan this should lose less. In retirement I hold the mantra, "Do not lose it " in high esteem.

    As a retired and conservative investor, I naturally agree with your mantra.
    However, I use the following non-ETF funds with excellent risk/reward profiles and all with SD<10:
    QDSNX, JHQAX, BLNDX, CBLDX and ICMUX.
    The only ETF fund I use is TFLO.
    By the way, JHQAX has an extremely low tax cost ratio of 0.23 according to M*.
    So far, so good.
    Fred
  • Balanced ETF funds that compare to CGBL
    @fundly. +100. DO NOT LOSE IT. you speak the truth. If you use portfolio visualizer try a 50 / 50 mix of vanguard Wellesley and Wellington which becomes a 50/50 allocation. Its worst year is less than WBALX and the return is much higher. And of course the ER is way less. Or with a shorter history to look at try SCHD and DODIX. @50/50.