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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Tariff Markets Open....
    We better pray that there is not another round of pandemic take place soon. This administration is even more incompetent than his previous one. He nearly died from COVID-19 if it was not for the anti-viral drugs he was given, not bleach.
  • Tariff Markets Open....
    If the stock market enters correction territory in the near-term due to tariffs,
    Trump may rescind tariffs and quickly declare victory based on an inconsequential outcome.
    He has a strong preference to be associated with robust stock market returns.
    However, if some present valuations are skating on thin ice, a reversal of this sort might not be enough to save the ship. (Apologies for the mixed metaphor.)
  • Tariff Markets Open....
    Ya, NY Crude at $74.03, up +2.07% at this moment in time. ... Whoa! Canadian dollar is at $1.47. Quite a move. Almost 7:00 p.m. on Sunday in the East.
  • Tariff Markets Open....
    As of 1800 ET with the open to the market week in Asia....
    NASDAQ futs down 2+%
    S&P futs down almost 2%
    NY Cruse +3%
    MXN Peso down almost 2$
    CDN Dollar down almost 2%
    Buckle up....
  • 2025 Trump Executive Orders
    “There are some things so dear, some things so precious, some things so eternally true,
    that they are worth dying for.
    And I submit to you that if a man has not discovered something that he will die for,
    he isn’t fit to live.”

    - Dr. Martin Luther King speech in Detroit on 06/23/1963
  • 2025 Trump Executive Orders
    +1.
    Do not do anything illegal, even if intentions are noble, especially if other human beings depend on you.
  • Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs
    "At what point is Trump considered to be a national security threat?"
    It has been abundantly clear that Trump is a national security threat
    since his inept and criminal mishandling of classified documents.
    And yet the Teflon-Don got away scot-free once again!
    There ought to be a law against this type of activity...
    Or his double-dealing, grifting, corruption, lobbying other governments as a private citizen, etc, etc, etc.
    Laws are only good if they are not only enacted, but enforced --- and they're often not, especially when it's convenient for those in charge.
  • NVDA and largest market-cap losses
    I believe I posted something similar to @rforno’s Bloomberg data back on January 27 under @Mark’s ”Howard Marks” thread. Here it is (scroll up a bit).
    Re: the ongoing discussion (as much about sources as NVDA), I’d agree cable “financial” television is pretty worthless, often inaccurate, slanted or misleading. Most days a parade of clowns talking their book sums it up nicely. Subscribers to Bloomberg’s online resources and print stories, however, fare much better. There are troves of data on virtually every global market and continuous updates 24/7. Bloomberg has the same in depth research tools (stocks, funds, etc) you’ll find at the WSJ and elsewhere. It’s a bit pricy at $329 yearly. Wonder how many here read it?
    I read Bloomberg, the WSJ and Barron’s. Also subscribe to a daily financial blog and a monthly financial newsletter. I read The Observer every month. Taken together these sources more than meet my investment appetite & needs. However, our financial situation, education level, amount of wealth managed and available time all influence where we look for financial information.
    I think Bloomberg’s paid subscription website does deserve a place somewhere in the hierarchy of financial news sources for average investors. Please do not conflate it with the on-air circus. If folks here have favorite sources to recommend perhaps they will provide links.
    Regarding NVDIA. The data @rforno (and I earlier) posted was designed to catch eyeballs. Not the only way to view it of course. @BaluBalu is spot-on that the percentage moves were greater when the stock had a much lower market cap.
  • Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs
    The 10% on China announced yesterday are on top of the Tariffs already in place. For an apples to apples comparison, are the Tariffs lower on Chinese products than on border countries' products? Another way to look at it is, total $ Tariffs imposed as a percentage of total imports.
    US trade rep / Commerce Dept website probably will have accurate and updated information.
    I expect Tariffs on China to be higher if not equal to that on border countries but someone can post the info when available.
    Over the past six-seven years a lot of Chinese manufacturers have moved their operations to other Asian countries and continue to be under (direct or indirect) China / CCP control.
    It would be good to know how have forum members changed or plan to change their portfolio because of the Tariffs. Your reaction can be very targeted to specific tickers, sectors, or market as a whole. For example, you decreased or plan to decrease your equity allocation because you think Tariffs will dampen (slow down) the economic activity in the US and / or cut into gross margins of US companies.
    I too am wondering. Why 25% on Canadian and Mexican products and "only" 10% on Chinese products?
  • Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs
    Ben Carlson on Bluesky:
    If social media sentiment translated into market moves we would see a 1987-like crash on Monday
    I hope everything is a giant overreaction but I can't wait to see how the markets digest the tariffs
    It does feel like an airpocket event is on the table.
  • NVDA and largest market-cap losses
    Rick,
    When not in a recession or SPX not in a bear market, the largest single day decline for NVDA stock was 35% which in August 2004. There were two other worse declines in similar circumstances than the decline on Monday (16.4%), which happens to be the 9th worst in its history.
    Now you can see the value of Gloomberg reporting in the OP. I am not singling out Gloomberg.
    Maybe, but NVDA's market cap in 2004 was *nowhere* what it is nowdays, so a 35% drop then would probably be tiny compared to even a 15% drop today, yes?
    'Gloomberg ...' *chuckle* Still more useful than the Clownish Network for Business Chatter!
  • Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs
    The 10% on China announced yesterday are on top of the Tariffs already in place. For an apples to apples comparison, are the Tariffs lower on Chinese products than on border countries' products? Another way to look at it is, total $ Tariffs imposed as a percentage of total imports.
    US trade rep / Commerce Dept website probably will have accurate and updated information.
    I expect Tariffs on China to be higher if not equal to that on border countries but someone can post the info when available.
    Over the past six-seven years a lot of Chinese manufacturers have moved their operations to other Asian countries and continue to be under (direct or indirect) China / CCP control.
    It would be good to know how have forum members changed or plan to change their portfolio because of the Tariffs. Your reaction can be very targeted to specific tickers, sectors, or market as a whole. For example, you decreased or plan to decrease your equity allocation because you think Tariffs will dampen (slow down) the economic activity in the US and / or cut into gross margins of US companies.
  • NVDA and largest market-cap losses
    NVDA had 8 of the top 10 market cap losses in one day.
    NVDA also had 5 of the top 10 market cap gains in one day.
    Skip to the 4:37 mark for NVDA info/chart.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0DR2TnvIIk
  • Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs
    My current understanding of his vision suggests that -- due to its unique position among the world's nations -- imposing both substantial across the board and targeted tariffs will prove to be beneficial for the United States.
    If by beneficial you mean "less bad", then others agree.
    while tariffs are predicted to inflict pain on all three nations, they would cause more damage to Canada and Mexico, smaller economies that are deeply dependent on the United States.
    ...
    Economists predict that the initial effect would be negative for all three nations, which are bound by a free-trade agreement known as USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada).
    ...
    Here’s what tariffs could mean for each country.
    All links are into NYTimes article:
    How Could Trump’s Tariffs Affect the U.S., Canada and Mexico?
  • NVDA and largest market-cap losses
    Rick,
    When not in a recession or SPX not in a bear market, the largest single day decline for NVDA stock was 35% which in August 2004. There were two other worse declines in similar circumstances than the decline on Monday (16.4%), which happens to be the 9th worst in its history.
    Now you can see the value of Gloomberg reporting in the OP. I am not singling out Gloomberg.
  • WealthTrack Show
    Feb 1st Episode:
    Outspoken and influential market economist David Rosenberg reflects on the extraordinary bull market of the last two years and why he isn’t changing his bearish outlook.


  • Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs
    FOTUS was hell-bent to get 'a better deal' for America in his first terme by renegotiating NAFTA. At least then there was industry consultation and a traditional diplomatic/commercial negotiation process. So now he's blowing up HIS deal that HE 'negotiated' for the same reason? I call shenanigans.
    These 'tariffs' are just the Sundowning Florida Man throwing arbitrary and ill-informed tantrums to show the world that there are somethings that 'I alone' have the ability to do -- I have power, I have to use it. He needs foreign or 'other' bogeymen and perceived 'threats' from the 'other' to justify his flailings, so this is what we get. How long before 'fetanayl' becomes 'foreign DEI' as his existential crisis du jour?
    Some of his more rational advisors I'm sure are going nuts over the Canada tariffs though ... especially over oil. Let the middle of the country (and his base) suffer for it. (Look at SOBO's pipeline map). He wants to lower inflation and the price of goods? Sure, tariffs will fix that riiiiiight up for ya, buddy. Wait for it -- and remember whose signature is on the orders that did that. (Hint: it's not Biden or Obama or the Democrats in Congress.)
    Yet he said yesterday “Tariffs don’t cause inflation. They cause success....Tariffs are going to make us very rich and very strong.” IDIOT.
    WaPo notes that "only 1.5 percent of migrants apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Protection in the 2024 fiscal year and 0.2 percent of fentanyl seized at U.S. borders came from Canada" and suggests that's just a canard pretense to justify his actions to his cult.
    I never believed he would start WW3 with our adversaries. However it is entirely likely he'll do so with our allies. Up is down, down is up, and you did not see that with your own eyes, people.
    Elect a clown, and the government becomes a circus. It'd be funny if it wasn't so dangerous.
    Oh ... just saw this tidbit:
    "The GOP also expects to factor in Trump’s tariffs as revenue that will reduce the[ir spending/tax plan] legislation’s price tag."
    So the GQP has swallowed FOTUS' idiocy that tariff money goes straight into the US Treasury. MORE IDIOTS.