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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Janus Henderson International Sustainable Equity ETF will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1500604/000139834424012582/fp0089127-2_497.htm
    497 1 fp0089127-2_497.htm
    Janus Detroit Street Trust
    Janus Henderson International Sustainable Equity ETF
    Supplement dated July 11, 2024
    to Currently Effective Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    The Board of Trustees of Janus Detroit Street Trust (the “Trust”) approved a plan to liquidate and terminate Janus Henderson International Sustainable Equity ETF (the “Fund”), effective on or about October 15, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). After the close of business on or about October 10, 2024, the Fund will no longer accept creation orders. Trading in the Fund will be halted prior to market open on or about October 11, 2024. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to shareholders on or about October 16, 2024. Termination of the Fund is expected to occur as soon as practicable following the liquidation.
    Prior to and through the close of trading on NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE”) on October 10, 2024, the Fund will undertake the process of winding down and liquidating its portfolio. This process may result in the Fund holding cash and securities that may not be consistent with its investment objectives and strategies. Furthermore, during the time between market open on October 11, 2024 and the Liquidation Date, because the shares will no longer be traded on NYSE, there may not be a trading market for the Fund’s shares.
    Shareholders may sell shares of the Fund on NYSE until the market close on October 10, 2024 and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. Shares held as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed for cash at the then current net asset value. Proceeds of the redemption will be paid through the broker-dealer with whom you hold shares of the Fund. Shareholders will generally recognize a capital gain or loss on the redemptions. The Fund may or may not, depending upon its circumstances, pay one or more dividends or other distributions prior to or along with the redemption payments. Please consult your personal tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
  • Rotation City. U.S. equity and bonds
    Charlie Bilello called it a reversal day. X/Twitter LINK
    "Today was one of the wildest days in markets you will ever see. A complete reversal of all of the major secular trends in recent years.

    ============================
    Not many words there but "a LOT to unpack" as they say!
    Agree with the "wildest days" notion. The divergent data was certainly compelling and a sight to behold.
    But "a complete reversal of all of the major secular trends"?
    C'mon man!

    After the dust settled, NASDAQ was still UP 22% YTD and the RUT was pushing 5% YTD thanks to 3+% yesterday.
    The key word there IMO is "Today." Meaning, it was ONE, count 'em, ONE freaking day!
    I made some comments on another current MFO thread yesterday about what the analysts I listened to were saying about the landmark day (?) as it was unfolding.
    Consensus takes?
    Let's wait and see. At least (sic) until the end of the week (as in ONE more day later)!
    Will investors continue to move money from LCG to Value and SCs?
    The move may last for a month or two but are SCs and Value up to the task of being the new market leaders?
    Is anyone seeing any significant follow through today? Anyone? Yes, the RUT is leading the major indexes, but only fractionally. NASDAQ sure ain't looking like a dead horse to me.
    Earnings start today - lots of wood to chop this month still!.
    In retrospect a month or two from now, I'll suggest some investors who have been/are underweight LCG, Tech, AI and/or Mag7 will regret NOT using yesterday as a BUYing opportunity. To wit, had you bought NVDA at the close yesterday, you'd already be UP 2.5%!
    One take. Could be dead wrong.
    But it's my WAG!
    YMMV.
  • Variable Annuity(s) as sold by insurance sales folks. Real time knowledge of fees,recurring fees.
    You may know that VAs are covered by MFO Premium and the new TestFol (Morningstar used to cover them too, but now that is now part of M* professional products). My particular focus has been on TIAA VAs, but others are covered too (including from Fido).
    MFO Pointers https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/539/mfo-premium
    TestFol Pointers https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/626/testfol-io-free-portfolio-analytics
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    I am guessing all or most of that revenue from uninvested cash goes straight to the bottom line.
    If there is no such thing as uninvested cash at Fidelity and Schwab relies on uninvested cash for 50% of revenue, Schwab must suck at almost everything else. Now that we are close to 2 months since TD integration, I am waiting to learn about lay offs at Schwab. Their customer service level is inferior to that of Fidelity, even with massive improvement after TD acquisition. With lay offs, it will only get worse.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    " in 2023 Schwab made 50% of their revenue from interest on uninvested cash"
    Stop right there. No need to say anything more. If anyone thinks that any business can give up 50% of their revenue from one source without compensating by redistributing that 50% income over other types of charges then I suggest that they are living in some sort of alternative capitalism than I am.
    Yes, I surely hate the constant game-playing to keep cash earning a decent income for me rather than Schwab. But before we get too excited over that let's talk about exactly how Schwab will make their money if they give up 50% of their income.
    Free lunch, anyone?
  • Rotation City. U.S. equity and bonds
    That felt like a bear market rally of those that were in the dumpster.
    IWM up 3+% and SPY more than -0.5% last happened in Oct of 2008 - Bob Pasani, CNBC.
    Glad to see Utilities and other touted as AI adjacent / enabled are decoupled lately including today.
    Unfortunately, I have no clue about tomorrow.
  • Rotation City. U.S. equity and bonds
    Factoid:
    The reshuffle led to some stunning stats. The S&P 500 dropped 1% even as 400 of its members rallied. A version of the benchmark index that strips out market-cap bias surged 1.2%, beating the weighted index by the most since November 2020.

    dinky linky
    .
    SPGP, RWL, and SPHD were up today. SPHQ was down, but not quite as much as SPY.
    Saw a paywalled blurb at Marketwatch saying the smart people are wondering where the beef is with AI.
    The article about the 493 that I posted the other day also suggested that folks are getting itchy to be doing something else.
    We shall see what tomorrow brings
  • Rotation City. U.S. equity and bonds
    Charlie Bilello called it a reversal day. X/Twitter LINK
    "Today was one of the wildest days in markets you will ever see. A complete reversal of all of the major secular trends in recent years.
    The Losers Became Winners...
    Regional Banks $KRE: +4.2%
    US Small Caps $IWM: +3.6%
    REITs $VNQ: +2.9%
    Japanese Yen $FXY: +1.8%
    Long Duration $ZROZ: +1.4%
    Value $IWD: +1.1%
    Emerging Markets $VWO: +0.8%
    Developed International $VEA: +0.4%
    ---
    The Winners Became Losers...
    US Dollar $UUP: -0.5%
    US Large Caps $SPY: -0.9%
    Growth $IWF: -2.1%
    Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -2.2%
    Apple $AAPL: -2.3%
    Amazon $AMZN: -2.4%
    Microsoft $MSFT: -2.5%
    Tech $XLK: -2.5%
    Google $GOOGL: -2.9%
    Semiconductors $SOXX: -3.3%
    Netflix $NFLX: -3.7%
    Meta $META: -4.1%
    Nvidia $NVDA: -5.6%
    Tesla $TSLA: -8.4%"
  • Rotation City. U.S. equity and bonds
    Both of the below links are active; meaning the data shown is current dependent upon the viewing time. The 'etf' link is active during 'markets open' periods, showing data with a 15 minute delay. The closing daily data will stay in place until the next trading day begins (US markets are open). The page is linked with the '%Chg' column selected, which is a daily column. You may select any other column to sort returns for that time frame.
    Major global and U.S. etf categories This list is set with %Chg, which will be for changes for today, July 10; being from most positive to most negative returns.
    Per a request, this link is added to this thread at this beginning page.
    The data shown is an indicative gauge of direction and isn't a monitor of trading in an open and active market. REF: Finviz shows about +5% at midnight for Japan; while the active and open market there is +10% at this time.
    FINVIZ futures
    3pm, Thursday:
    Peeking around areas I watch, one finds weakness today with the Mag 7, and money flows to the Russell 2000; and other equity sectors. With lower inflation reported and possible FED rate cuts in the future, of course; one also finds interest rate sensitive areas having gains. The reported inflation is about 3%. Not the 2% the FED wants but probably close enough. Somewhere I have a link that expresses that the very long term official average CPI is 3.3%.
    Bond yields, of course; have dropped today, per the hope of a rate cut. Many traditional bond funds first moved to small positive YTD returns last week. Those holding most bond funds today with find a nice price bump.
    Well, enough from me. Let us discover what B of A and the other big players have to say. :)
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Good ol' Fairholme
    FAIRX approaching 25 year since launch.
    Interesting that we are talking about Wood and Berkowitz with similar threads.
    I find the chart below fascinating!

    FAIRX Flows and Return Data Since Inception (Absolute Scale)
    image

    Over its long life, it's actually beaten the SP500 handedly and has been almost as good as Buffett. Bruce's misstep and perhaps Morningstar's was the expectation set in its first decade. The life of a fund is only as long as its investors believe in the manager.

    Return Comparison Since FAIRX Inception
    image

  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    Apparently as the Schwab-TDA merger took shape, the company tried to walk the line between "not upsetting their existing customers" (mainly 'stodgy' B&H types) when trying to integrate a more active type of investor/trader from TDA ... my sense is that they erred on the side of caution to respect their existing asset base and didn't want to upset their more conservative investors with dramatic changes. So as a result, many TDA migrants are upset w/the Schwab experience.
    That said, cash management issue at Schwab is just 100% customer-unfriendly and inexcusable, and adds an extra step/more friction to doing things, and their failure to allow DRIP of Canadian stocks is just annoying.
    Speaking of idle cash, in 2023 Schwab made 50% of their revenue from interest on uninvested cash 25% from asset management (incl Schwab ETFs) 17% from trading (commissions and PFOF).
  • Good ol' Fairholme
    Something made me think of this today. I was on board those many years ago when it was the hottest thing going, the manager the focus of much adulation. Seem to recall I exited with a gain, but one much reduced from the top. Its fall from grace is old news. Hard to believe the following though:
    --The fund still has over $1 billion AUM.
    --Over one-third of those assets belong to the manager.
    --80+% of the fund is invested in a single security.
    --The fund charges 1% per annum for the privilege of ownership. (To a large extent the manager is paying himself.)
    --Over the past 10 and 15 years the fund's returns land in the bottom 1% of its category (according to you-know-who).
    --You-know-who accords the fund its Silver medal. (Huh?!)
    Investing is such a personal endeavor it's difficult to understand what some people are thinking.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @PRESSmUP Looking at 5 year chart , go for it ! Key word here would be " taxable " ?
    ADDED If Nav goes up , dividends going down ?
  • Cathie Wood nods at Ark’s ‘challenged’ returns but insists on future profits
    Here's The Barron's Daily take on her letter to investors:
    Cathie Wood, the architect behind the ARK fund, has a delicate task in her latest letter to investors. The fund came to prominence with big gains in 2020 when the broader market was tanking. Now she has to explain both why her funds haven’t been doing well lately, and how they will do better.
    It starts with Wood pointing out that her flagship fund, which focuses on “disruptive innovation,” is 72% below its peak while the S&P 500 is hitting all-time highs. The reason given is that the S&P is driven by just a few stocks, and the ARK fund has been hurt more than others by higher interest rates—implying that her high-growth picks have been disproportionately hit by weaker risk appetite for the past few years.
    Of course, Wood famously sold Nvidia before it went on its spectacular run. And she recently started selling Tesla just as it started to climb more aggressively. These are both the very kinds of companies that fit the bill for ARK.
    It’s a lesson for investors everywhere. Sometimes you can be right about big ideas and still get the timing wrong. Or, in some cases, you have the right idea and pick the wrong stocks. Getting timings right on market moves is very hard.
    Second, it’s really hard to beat the market as an active investor, especially when the S&P 500 is up 26% over the past year. Even Warren Buffett’s vast wealth can largely be explained by compound interest—he has basically matched market returns for the past two decades.
    There’s one more thing worth remembering when reading Wood’s letter. And it’s that her job is more about convincing investors to join her—getting the best returns for her investors is a secondary consideration. Recent outflows suggest it isn’t going well. She may well be right about the future and her stock picks may turn out to be excellent. The hard part is convincing others to join her.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/10/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/10/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (49.2%, high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (21.7%, low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (29.1%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +27.5% (high). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (124+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (39+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 51.19% (positive). New highs for SP500 & Nasdaq Comp. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1551/thread
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    ...
    When I started my taxable position in SMH back in February (thanks again @Stillers) I started small. The way it grows, it won't stay small long. And if there is one of those 30-35% down-drafts in the future, I won't be too bummed out to double down.
    Will chips become commodities? Maybe, RAM pretty much is. But then people keep inventing new things to do with chips, see Nvidia. And they are in all things tech. What will make them obsolete? Biological semis is my guess.
    Glad you took the plunge with SMH. Semis are the gift that keeps on giving.
  • on the failure of focus
    @davidrmoran, I tried PV for 10 years, and the results were closer to your results. I double-checked TestFol and its numbers are the same as before.
    It looks that TestFol has some error in the data for XLG and its numbers for XLG are consistently lower (compared with PV).
    New picture with PV:
    3 Years IVV < OEF < XLG
    5 Years IVV < OEF < XLG
    10 Years IVV < OEF < XLG
    That is what I was expecting because SP500 has become increasingly concentrated in mega-stocks. But at the time of my previous post, I didn't suspect errors in TestFol, so simply noted that the results were unexpected.
    Edit/Add, 7/11/24. I contacted TestFol on this issue. It acknowledged the problem for XLG and fixed it promptly. Interestingly, my old linked runs now show the updated data for XLG (and they are now close to those from PV), but those for OEF and IVV are unchanged (i.e. I didn't have re-run those TestFol).
    Many have now started using TestFol because after the recent update, FREE Portfolio Visualizer (PV) is quite limited or unfriendly. As this is sort of off topic for the OP, I won't post more here, but interested posters can find details at,
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1550/thread
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Good session. Healthy turn out today. Thank you!
    Link to video.
    Link to chart deck.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Buggy whips couldn't reinvent themselves into something else.
    But you do have to keep up with the times. Radios were a big deal once upon a time. So were electric typewriters and main-frame computers.
    Some things are practically commodities, e.g., hard drives, routers.
    And sometimes things take unexpected directions. High-end graphics cards were limited to dedicated gamers not too long ago.
    When I started my taxable position in SMH back in February (thanks again @Stillers) I started small. The way it grows, it won't stay small long. And if there is one of those 30-35% down-drafts in the future, I won't be too bummed out to double down.
    Will chips become commodities? Maybe, RAM pretty much is. But then people keep inventing new things to do with chips, see Nvidia. And they are in all things tech. What will make them obsolete? Biological semis is my guess.