Here it is from 1990 - 2024:

humm … interesting I’ll look at BOXX. Thanks Yogi.
What I’ve been mulling over in recent days is something similar to a zero-coupon, but maybe just out 2, 3, 4 years. (Zeros are crazy volatile as I think everyone knows.) Might be a good hedge / hold if you think a serious recession lies ahead (late ‘24 or ‘25).
I’d guess these can be purchased individually but that funds like the old AC series have pretty much disappeared. I have begun watching AC’s BTTRX for what information it may provide. (This one has 1.56 years to maturity and has a NAV over $108 which doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. My 2 decade old memory is that they matured at $100. But can’t be correct.)

@LewisBraham mentions BSCP as an illustration of the target date bond ETFs available in this Week’s Barron’s. (I’ll caution that it does not appear to be a specific recommendation, but constitutes just one component in a broader look at bond ETFs.) The fund invests in corporate bonds. My understanding is that such funds return no regular / compound interest, but mature at a higher valuation, providing interest-like return. For the most part it should be possible to project the yield from the date of purchase until maturity. But ISTM the vicissitudes of the corporate bond markets would inject a certain amount of uncertainty?
From Invesco’s Prospectus:: ”The Fund will terminate on or about December 15, 2025 without requiring additional approval by the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Invesco Exchange-Traded Self-Indexed Fund Trust (the “Trust”) or Fund shareholders, although the Board may change the termination date. In connection with the termination of the Fund, the Fund will make a cash distribution of its net assets to then-current shareholders after making appropriate provisions for any liabilities of the Fund.”
- Short question - How could I project out the likely return at the termination date when purchasing?
- Or, is there no reliable way to do so?
Thanks for any tips. Thanks to Lewis for a good article.
PS - If I remember correctly, The AC zero-coupon funds I played with 2 decades ago terminated at a set dollar price per share. The U.S. backing of Treasuries made such precise forecasting possible. Corporates (zero or not) occupy a different playing field.

The graphic is set for the 5 days ending April 26, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
ADD an etf performance of your choosing, if you desire. ***
*** Requested ADD: For the week and YTD
--- MINT = +.09% / +2.08% Pimco Ultra Short Term Enhanced Bonds
--- EWW = +3.02% / -1.47% (I Shares, Mexico)
MMKT note: Fidelity mmkt's yields remain unchanged this week, with core acct's yields at 4.95% (SPAXX) and 4.98% (FDRXX).
NOTE: The broad U.S. equity and bond sectors finished the week with mixed performance in many sectors. Equity:The 'big' best was again the growth areas. Using 5 large funds with exposure to tech., semi conductors and related found an average of +5.66% for the week. Semi conductor growth being the very best sector. Bond funds ranged from +.09% to a -1.6%, with the ultra short term being the best and the very long term being the worst sectors.
*** While I focus on U.S. equity and bonds; CHINA (FXI, China large cap etf) had a big awakening this week of +7.8%. This is the first large positive move in a long time frame. I can not provide a reference for this large move; as I have not investigated this action.
NEW: 1 week 'heat map' by sectors. This is an interactive graphic. You may hover the computer pointer over the various blocks to view portions of sectors and/or stocks within those sectors. NOTE: to the left of the graphic, one may change the 1 week performance drop down menu to another time frame. Another example: at the left edge of the graphic, select exchange traded funds and then 1 week or a time period of your choice.
Remain curious,
Catch

As Rod Serling would say, “submitted for your approval,” here is a 3-minute video of the changes in the S&P 500 Top Ten stocks over time:

It's not as though it costs the same amount for each rung of protection - that the first 10% of protection costs $X, the next 10% of protection costs the same amount, and so on. As the risk declines, so does the cost of incremental protection. That last 5% you want in chips should come as a freebee.
Still, seek and ye shall find. ETFs with 15% and 20% downside protection:
https://preservingwealth.com/15-20-buffer-etfs-moderate-downside-protection/
More generally, here's M*'s column on buffer ETFs (including variants designed to address the need to buy on a fixed date and hold for precisely a year)
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/going-beyond-defined-outcome-etfs
The protection is not a drag, but a cap. That is, participation rate is 100%, but only up to a given return. And as with principal protection notes, "participation" is in price only; it doesn't include divs.
Here's the generic investment return vs. reference return graph (from Blackrock).

https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/insights/buffer-etfs

Taxes (in taxable accounts):
- short term (12 mo or less) zeros are taxed only at maturity, so a 9 month instrument purchased in May 2024 will not be taxed until the 2025 tax year. This goes for T-bills and short term CDs that pay interest at maturity.
- if an ETF or fund (other than a MMF) pays interest periodically, one might choose not to reinvest divs. Otherwise, one could be facing an accounting nightmare when withdrawing cash. There's a significant risk of generating wash sales - sell shares at $10.02 that were purchased at $10.05 (a small loss); then the divs reinvested that month will "wash out" that loss.
- Treasury funds like USFR are (mostly) state tax-exempt.
Why multiple funds:
Floating rate and fixed rate markets (yields) don't move in sync and hard to predict. Likewise treasuries and commercial paper.
Personally I like RPHIX and FLRN, though FLOT is very close to FLRN. I agree with Yogi that Pimco seems to have higher expense funds. In the past JPST (another fund of this ilk) was more aggressive than ICSH and had done better. Not so since roughly the beginning of 2021 when volatilities were comparable and ICSH returned more.
Here's Fidelity's comparison of RPHIX, USFR, FLRN, ICSH, and MINT. As conditions shift, the cumulative (e.g. three-year) figures could change significantly. IMHO that's the argument for using multiple types of these funds.

"Calamos Investments filed Monday for so-called “structured-protection” exchange-traded funds that will track a portion of the returns of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 while hedging 100% of the downside via the options market, according to a Monday filing.

It's a gimmick I'd say.

I agree, if for a different reason.
In the world where you would get any benefit from 100% downside protection - if there is a world left by then - SP500 would be down to '0' and, should they still be around to pay out, your money would be worthless anyway. (In fact, if they really wanted to get attention, they should offer a fund hedging in $'s up to, say, 95% downside and switching payout to 'chips' - my choice: potato - if the reference index drops any further.)
Historically, since 1950, there has been one instance of > 50% DD on SP500 and four in the 30-40%'s (if you believe this link). So, when dabbling in hedged ETFs, I find ~ 15-20% downside protection more reasonable - which also allows for a higher upside.

@hank, there is also an annual fixed cost of about 250k to run an ETF why even well known firms liquidate ETFs if they do not accumulate assets after a year or two. The ETF business is not as lucrative as inventing an index or strategy that you could license to other ETF shops. Or come up with a hot thematic ETF like a Bitcoin ETF, cybersecurity ETF, etc. Anyway, good luck!

@hank,
Yes, I think it costs at least $500K to start an ETF, especially for the first one.
I too think it is a great ticker. I think you can use it if it is not being used - check the SEC rules. If you are superstitious, you may avoid it no matter how brand value you might perceive.
If you want a ticker that is being used, you can buy it from the current user. META used to be a ticker for an ETF when FaceBook bought it. That ETF is now METV.

I started a position in GPMCX around the time most everyone else did here back in 2015. After going great guns, and then recovering from Covid, since 2021 it has been all downhill. Fortunately I sold most of the position.
I have a hard time figuring out what they are doing wrong, but I am sticking with funds I am more comfortable with,

If you are going to remain "overweight" in equities, the 1 phrase that sticks in my mind is:
"A rising tide lifts all boats" - JFK
....and the reverse is true as well. Defensive sectors (Utilities, Health, etc.) don't always hold up. So it would be nice to think that there are "low risk" strategies that could work. But they rarely do.
The M* article that YBB posted pointed out that both Low-volatility and Alternative investments have been hampered severely by extremely low interest rates (earned by Treasuries and Cash collateral) over the past 15 years.
The article finished with:
"But what feels good is not necessarily what is right. As a rule, competitive gains do not occur without accompanying pain.
That’s a message worth remembering when investment vendors respond to a stock downturn by selling safety. They always do."

Nice @msf
I liken the “drag effect” of portfolio hedging to brakes on a car. A car would be much more efficient and would travel farther if you just left it rolling along.
PS - @msf said “Shilling (attrib Keynes): The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
That’s scary if true. It suggests our perspective on markets based on most of our investing lifetimes may not reflect reality. My “hands-on” experience dates to 1995, or about 30 years. Prior to that I paid little attention. Despite a few awful downturns (2000, 2008, 2020, 2022) U.S. equities have dramatically outpaced just about every other kind of investment. I dare say that holding bonds or other hedges over that 30 year span would have resulted in a lower overall return.
But, as I think Shilling / Keynes implies, that 30 year period may represent some type of alternative universe rather then reality.
FWIW / Fido’s analytics currently put me at 51% equities. Too high. Waiting for a good chance to reduce that.

Volatility reduction tactics can improve long term performance. It depends on how long the term is. As you imply, in the withdrawal stage long term is decidedly shorter. Two quotes come to mind.

Keynes: In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again.
Shilling (attrib Keynes): The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/6757924-in-the-long-run-we-are-all-dead-economists-set
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/
Still, I maintain significant exposure to vanilla equities. Though that is with what I feel is adequate ballast that can be drawn down as needed.

”This column should not be read as a criticism of low-risk investments. They aren’t required for younger investors, who need not worry about redeeming their funds at the wrong time (at least, if they are sensible), but they are critical for retirees who are withdrawing their assets. Ballast prevents them from entering a bear market spiral in which they spend ever-larger percentages of their portfolio to realize the same amount of money. Do that for long, and you are in real trouble.”
Do younger investors (ie ages 25-45) really pay much attention to portfolio construction / hedging? Sure, some do. And likely if they’re reading this board they pay greater attention than the average working stiff with a job, kids in school, a big mortgage and 25 + years to retirement.
Good article. Hopefully (as the author suggests) well considered portfolio specific hedging may reduce short term volatility for those already in the withdrawal stage. In no way, shape or form would I ever argue that hedging improves longer term performance. And … there’s always the option (hedge) of moving a big chunk into cash and / or CDs, as one well-heeled poster appears to have done recently. As a sometimes landscaper / gardener, I’m aware that hedges come in many different shapes and colors.

The Week in Charts (04/19/24)
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:14 Topics
00:46 When the Levee Breaks
07:21 The Other Side of Mania
12:01 The Large/Small Divide
15:19 Netflix Numbers
19:14 When Valuation Matters
22:12 Tesla Trimming
26:25 Housing Slump Continues
30:51 Higher (Cash Yields) For Longer
Video
Blog

Exactly @gman57

BOT more shares of GOOGL while down slightly in pre-market trading to bring position to intended level. Avg share price just under $138 (a wee bit lower than the $140+ on our first BUY/SELL). Will either be another ST trade. if we get a bounce, or will ADD to position as LT HOLD. All yet TBD.
EDIT: Decided to dbl the position. BOT more shares during early market action as price kept falling. Snagged next batch at just under $136. Fun stuff!
EDIT_2: Closed out the position with some BUYs later in the day in the $135's, to end at an avg purchase price of $137, less than 1/2% below today's Close. Seems to be about where we were when we took the first ride on GOOGL. Lot of negativity towards it now but thinking we should be just about done with this round of punishment. We'll see!

SOLD full position in GOOGL on after hours POP at ~$177 for a ST Gain of ~29%. This trade took a LOT longer than expected to materialize but ended up being the best of my three ST plays on GOOGL, then NVDA, then GOOGL again.

the Fed continues it's rate reductions
Continues?
I'm not counting on rates dropping soon. Around 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which "grew at a still-solid 2.5% rate, slowing from the [previous quarter's] 3.3% growth pace".
https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202404250006RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KCN36S06D-OUSBS_1
And from the cited WP piece, "That exuberant [consumer] spending — especially on travel, restaurants, concerts and other services — has recently lifted inflation, reigniting fears that the Federal Reserve may have to be even more aggressive in its efforts to slow the economy."
"Yields remain higher on the day after the latest GDP report showed slower growth and higher inflation than expected." (WSJ)
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-earnings-04-25-2024/card/treasury-yields-stable-after-solid-7-year-auction-yg7fFwF9KaOlkRIwZylf
IMHO the markets tend to initially overreact to any news. Still, yields aren't going down in the short term. Nevertheless, grabbing longer term rates over the next few weeks seems like a solid, cautious approach.

Sold 100k SUTXX MMKT (currently 5.17%) to extend income ladder- 50k treasuries, mature 2/26 @ 4.9698%, and 1/27 @ 4.806%
Note: The Washington Post is reporting that "the U.S. economy grew at 1.6 percent annual rate in first quarter 2024, a sharp slowdown".
Those of us currently building and maintaining income ladders should be alert that high current MMKT returns may drop significantly if the economy slows and the Fed continues finally begins it's rate reductions, and consider moving at least some MMKT cash to long-term securities.