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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    From a common sense perspective, if one's goal is to be agnostic about the fortunes of any one company, why would you want to invest a lot more money in to some but not into others?
    But also, it's axiomatic that you should let your winners run, and with an equal weight portfolio, you keep chopping them back.
    Over any given time period, one approach will be better than the other. In a horse race, you only have to wait 2 minutes to see whether you were right. In this race, you will have to wait 10 or 15 years.
    Academic papers, difficult to comprehend, have been written on this question, and I just do not know what the right answer is. (Of course, it's also true that the "right" academic answer may produce inferior returns.
    I do think that the equal weight approach, because of greater diversification, is likely to do better in extreme bear markets.
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    I’ve been trying to lean into investing in the equal weight proposition. I think the supposition is, if the top heavy-weighted stocks in the S&P 500 were to drop in value, then the other 490+ stocks would increase in value through the top-heavy stocks’ value drop, allowing for the remaining stocks to rise in relative value, yes? In 2022 RSP dropped less than SPY (PV backtest), okay.
    Still, from the chart, it appears there’s a close correlation. So if the top-heavy stocks drop, so do the remaining 490+. For me it seems, this is a seductive rationale rather than an actionable strategy. What am I missing?
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    @Baseball_Fan: let’s hope the new owner keeps the AR-15 quiet. Creepy story.
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    Class.
    Just remember when many of us were in high school'ish in 1976 the population of the USA was ~ 220M, now "officially it is ~ 340M, and let's not BS ourselves with all the illegals etc it has to be more like ~380M. They have to live somewhere, no? I really don't see those CRE in the inner cities being built out...I think the real oppty is in the burbs with the big office parks...lot of land, not high rise but maybe easier to convert to housing? And this one if for you DMoran...I know a guy who just bought 40 acres in Alta WY, the other side of the Tetons, the quiet side....building a house next year, builder offering him a free AR15 as a deal sweetener....
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    After 25 years of retirement my allocation hasn’t changed much. Early on I looked to TRRIX, a 40/60 TRP fund for guidance. Currently own the fund and it’s one of several I watch to try and keep my feet firmly on the ground.
    No X-Ray. Simply broke apart my holdings to get a rough picture.
    Equity 46%
    Foreign / domestic bonds 20%
    Convertible bonds 10%
    Cash 10%
    Precious metals 7%*
    Foreign currencies 5%*
    S&P short position -2%
    Net long equity 44%
    * Some of the metals exposure is direct and some through PRPFX. The currencies are all through PRPFX. I own one long-short fund, making the total short position a bit higher than stated above and the net-long equity a bit lower.
    What the discussion pretty much misses is that not all equities are the same. Some are relatively low volatility, while some can be be quite explosive. Exposure to EM may count as part of your equities, but is more risky than most U.S. domestics. Guess that’s for another day.
  • CD Renewals
    @dryflower...so what is the alternative...buying a SPY -like index with the top holding of AAPL...with a PE of 33, YOY top line down -2.5%, Profit$ down a little more than that, cash on hand now under 2% of total capital unlike recently when it was 25%+...but damn the torpedos or for you youngsters out there YOLO...keep plowing your life savings into the casino?
    Not sure what the class thinks about this comment...but...while we are all sailing in the same ocean, we all experience inflation differently in the water craft we are on....you could argue that your portfolio as a whole gets whacked by inflation but I would also state for example if my annual spend is $150k before taxes annually and that inflation has gone up by +10, +15% (can we talk, be real, who really believes that bullshit that inflation was/is only 5,6,7% the past year) but that $150k is only very tiny % of my overall portfolio, inflation doesn't really impact my lifestyle, spending habits....I can always cut back somewhere. But say if one puts 35-50% of their portfolio in the markets and it gets whacked which is not out of the realm of reasonable possiblities and you add the "real world" inflation...you could get in trouble quickly as a near or in retiree.
    Rule #1 is capital preservation. Live to fight another day. don't get greedy...nothing wrong with ther 5% annual return...so many co workers the past 15 years in their early 50's were saying....all I "need" is 5% a year....until then they kept grinding....
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    So many obstacles now to converting empty office buildings including old zoning laws, and the fear of lost equity in nearby homes to be but a few. Interesting read, but will probably be behind a NYTimes paywall. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/upshot/american-cities-office-conversion.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
    “There is an aging office building on Water Street in Lower Manhattan where it would make all the sense in the world to create apartments. The 31-story building, once the headquarters of A.I.G., has windows all around and a shape suited to extra corner units. In a city with too little housing, it could hold 800 to 900 apartments. Right across the street, one office not so different from this one has already been turned into housing, and another is on the way.
    But 175 Water Street has a hitch: Offices in the financial district are spared some zoning rules that make conversion hard — so long as they were built before 1977. And this one was built six years too late, in 1983.”
  • CD Renewals
    On one hand, I'm an enthusiastic proponent of CDs at 5%+. It's fun (for weirdos like us) to get that guaranteed money. No risk, no losses, no stress.
    OTOH, being realistic, real returns even before, but especially after taxes are not going to be much over zero. I'm assuming inflation rates in the 3-4% range.
    Yes, one is keeping up with, even "beating" inflation -- no small feat -- and doing this effortlessly and for free, but there's not going to be any compound growth, one isn't going to be making any money.
    Accordingly, about 10% in CDs seems about right (no bonds).
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    @DavidF, RSP is still trailing SPY in your chart.
    Think over a longer term, 5 years and longer, RSP outperforms that of SPY.
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    As a father I do think about the economy that my kids are facing. The younger two (32 and 25), who rent, are for the most part shut out of the home-buying market and it’s likely to be some time before they’d even consider buying. Among my three siblings and me, two occupy a distinctly lower economic rank than did our parents or in-laws. I grew up believing that I and my generation would do better than our parents. It has not worked out that way for my sibs, nor does it seem to be the case for my kids. Inflation figures and price increases are so much background noise compared to the main narrative which is trying to predict (optimistically because it’s July 4th) where our citizens are headed.
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    Michael Santoli, Senior Markets Commentator at CNBC, has been pointing out the relative outperformance lately of the equal-weight S&P 500.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?spy,rsp
    The chart seems to show the opposite.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @Roy, you are getting great inputs from many posters here on your asset allocation. Target date fund’s glide path provides a good starting point for the major asset class allocations, and I use them as a reference point, just as @Observant1 is doing. I am several years older than you are and am approaching retirement too.
    Several years ago, I gradually reduced stock exposure gradually to a 50/25/25 (stock/bond/cash) allocation. This conservative allocation was helpful to navigate through the difficult year of 2022 when both stocks and bonds fell simultaneously. This year has been the quite the reversal as both stocks and bonds move up amidst of banking crisis. Now that the bulk of rate hike is behind us, I am more optimistic that bonds will have more meaningful gain this year with respect to yields (4-5%) and some capital appreciation on the bond prices. T bills, CDs and money market are yielding 5%. And that is good enough for me.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    At 63, my wife and I determined we had reached our “number,” and decided to reduce our equity allocation while both of us were still working. Since we were aware stocks could drop by 50%, we figured to reduce our possible equity loss by allocating 35% (potential 17.5% drop). Of course we missed out on some equity expansion these last 7 years (now 70 and retired 6 yrs) but we slept better.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Roy, the nice thing about investing is the fact that very seldom you can find exceptional funds which defy common concepts such as low expense + index do best over a longer time.
    PRWCX is one of them. In the past I used PIMIX(2010-2017), SGIIX,OAKBX,FAIRX(2000-1 to 2009).
    I started reducing my portfolio in 90+% in stocks, in 2013, 5 years prior to retirement. Most of the bond portion was in PIMIX. Since 2017 (retirement=2018) I have been using about 90% bond OEFs, but I'm a unique bond OEF trader.
    I think 50/50 is a good choice. I would select between the following funds:
    Moderate allocation=PRWCX
    More conservative=WBAIX/WBALX....CFTAX(Tactical-increase/decrease stock %)...FASMX
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    The largest chunk by far of our investments have been in TRAIX/PRWCX for the past ~16-17 years, so the recent move to reduce some of those holdings was a bit difficult because of the emotional attachment as well as the FOMO on future equity gains. We are now roughly 50/50 equity/fixed income---still sufficient equity exposure for growth and nice dividend income from the MM/bond side. Our equity exposure had already been down the past 1 1/2 years as some money my wife inherited had been placed in fixed income rather than TRAIX/PRWCX.
    Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
    @Roy,
    I'm the same age as you. I started reducing my equity exposure gradually in 2020 or so.
    Last year the stock market "helped" to decrease my equity allocation a bit! :-(
    Portfolio on 12-31-2019
    73% Stocks
    22% Bonds
    5% Cash
    Portfolio on 06-30-2023
    66.0% Stocks
    19.4% Bonds (DOXIX & TIPS)
    14.4% Cash (MM funds)
    I periodically review Vanguard and T. Rowe Price target-date fund portfolios for reference.
    Mostly, I pay attention to the overall stock/bond split. I don't attempt to replicate these target-date funds.
    For example, I don't have dedicated exposure to global/foreign bonds, convertibles, or preferred stocks.
    Portfolio allocations for Vanguard Target Retirement and T. Rowe Price Retirement funds are listed below.
    Please note that T. Rowe Price offers three distinct target-date fund series.
    VTTVX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 32.8%
    Foreign Stock - 21.7%
    US Bond - 28.9%
    TIPS - 4.2%
    Foreign Bond - 12.4%
    TRRHX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 39.11%
    Foreign Stock - 18.44%
    US Bond - 25.88%
    Foreign Bond - 10.45%
    Cash - 5.31%
    Convertibles - 0.51%
    Preferred Stock - 0.25%
    Other 0.05%
    VTHRX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 38.2%
    Foreign Stock - 25.3%
    US Bond - 25.5%
    TIPS - 0.0%
    Foreign Bond - 11.0%
    TRRCX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 46.16%
    Foreign Stock - 21.83%
    US Bond - 18.32%
    Foreign Bond - 7.97%
    Cash - 4.80%
    Convertibles - 0.58%
    Preferred Stock - 0.30%
    Other 0.04%
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
    I had been shifting to more bonds and less equities between 2020-21. Then the spam hit the fan.
    I know you love PRWCX. Me, too. In spite of myself, it has grown to 39 percent of my total right now. I try to follow the "rules of thumb," but not with much effort. Those "rules" don't apply to our house in many ways.
    I'm at 50 US stocks.
    8 foreign stocks
    35 bonds.
    ...The rest is "other" or cash held by the funds. Oops, I do own a few single stocks, now.
    I'm 69 later this month.
    Everyone's situation is different. I'm investing primarily for my primary heirs: my son and my wife---his stepmother. He is all of 30, come October. She just turned 50. And she will go back to the Philippines when I'm gone. Much cheaper to live there. We already have a new house already built on the property where she grew up. It was necessary. The old one just fell down into decay.
    One of my biggest priorities is to continue to grow the portion of the portfolio that is not tax-sheltered. Just to increase the amount that is easier for her to get at without all the blessed, lovely, amazing, beautiful, fart-brained tax rules. (I know that INHERITED IRAs are a horse of a different color.)
    In the meantime, I'm not adding any stocks from foreign lands. I have seen the brokerage report to me that a chunk of the dividends "were taxed and held at the source." NHYDY. I don't want to be paying foreign governments, when my portfolio can make money HERE, and because of our specific circumstances, we've owed zero tax for many years, anyhow. I'll hold onto Norsk Hydro. It's been good to me, though the share price has lately dropped. Aluminum. They even mine their own bauxite. And green energy. And they're trying trying trying to buy a Polish recycling outfit. One of the largest aluminum concerns in the world.
    Bond funds: yes. I bought junk at just the wrong time. With patience, I'm seeing it rise, now. The dividends are better than the safer stuff, so I'm riding it back up. My foray into ETFs has been less than satisfactory. I choose-----against my best interest, maybe---- to stay with TRP. Their trading platform and rules can suck spooge, I've found out. ("If you're not going to let me use the "Good Till Canceled" option, you maybe perhaps ought to LET ME KNOW!!!!!.... I.T. doink-brains.) .... With a $5k minimum to trade non-TRP funds, I'll stick with the best of TRP's mediocre bond lineup. So, when I sell my ETFs, that will go into PRSNX. What I already own bond-wise (in T-IRA) is TUHYX and PRCPX.
    Break a leg! My junk is performing very well. But maybe you don't want to own junk. LOTS of places have better bond funds than TRP. I hope you find them. :)
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    I should have explained that it was my1993 Nissan 300ZX. Neither our Accord nor our Odyssey would stoop so low as to not start. The dealer, who has a seasoned Z mechanic, could not replicate the problem. The service manager drove it around for a while, pronounced it trouble-free and returned it to me no charge. He got to drive a 5-speed convertible and said he thoroughly enjoyed his day. I got to pay $150 for a 3-mile tow. Every now and then the starter fails to catch, but it functions if I put a little cognac in the tank to relax its nerves.
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    No matter what the retirees who are the majority of posters here think, economic well being in the U.S. is not just about the inflation rate. Jobs matter too: https://nytimes.com/2023/07/03/opinion/biden-economy-inflation-unemployment.html
    Back in the 1970s, Arthur Okun, an economist who had been a policy adviser to Lyndon Johnson, suggested a quick-and-dirty way to assess the nation’s economic condition: the “misery index,” the sum of inflation and unemployment. It was and is a crude, easily criticized measure. The measurable economic harm from unemployment, for instance, is much higher than that from inflation. Yet the index has historically done a quite good job of predicting overall economic sentiment.
    So it seems worth noting that the misery index — which soared along with inflation during 2021 and the first half of 2022 — has plunged over the past year. It is now all the way back to its level when President Biden took office.
    This remarkable turnaround raises several questions. First, is it real? (Yes.) Second, will ordinary Americans notice? (They already have.) Third, will they give Biden credit? (That’s a lot less clear.)
    The plunge in the misery index reflects both what didn’t happen and what did. What didn’t happen, despite a drumbeat of dire warnings in the news media, was a recession. The U.S. economy added four million jobs over the past year, and the unemployment rate has remained near a 50-year low.
    What did happen was a rapid decline in inflation. But is this decline sustainable? You may have seen news reports pointing out that “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has been “sticky,” suggesting that improvement on the inflation front will be only a temporary phenomenon.
    But just about every economist paying attention to the data knows that the traditional measure of core inflation has gone rotten, because it’s being driven largely by the delayed effects of a surge in rents that ended in mid-2022. This surge, by the way, was probably caused by the rise in remote work triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic rather than by any Biden administration policy.
    Alternative measures of core inflation that exclude shelter by and large show a clear pattern of disinflation; inflation is still running higher than it was before the pandemic, but it has come down a lot. If you really work at it, it’s still possible to be pessimistic about the inflation outlook, but it’s getting harder and harder. The good news about inflation, and about the economy as a whole, does look real.
    But are people noticing this improvement? Traditional measures of economic sentiment have become problematic in recent years: Ask people how the economy is doing, and their response is strongly affected both by partisanship and, I believe, by the narratives conveyed by the news media. That is, what people say about the economy is, all too often, what they think they’re supposed to say.
    But if you ask Americans more specific questions, such as whether now is a good time to find a quality job, they typically say yes. At the same time, their expectations about future inflation have declined substantially.