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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    w/e August 9, 2024..... NAV's down a bit...
    Bond NAV's were down through Thursday, with many having decent recovery pricing on Friday. Perhaps this is a good omen going forward. A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
    FIRST:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, August 5 - August 9, 2024
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates and ended the week at 5.15% yield. MMKT's yields moved down .01-.02% from last week. Fidelity's MMKT's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MMKT's.
    --- AGG = -.78% / +2.46% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.04% / +3.64% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.23% / +2.8% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.68% / +2.73% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -1.04% / +2.31% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.43% / +2.66% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.16% / +3.3% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.17% / +3.23% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -1.13% / +1.23% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -2.08% / -.33% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -2.70% / -2.24% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -2.78% / -4.1% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +4.1% / +5.58% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -6.4% / -12.62% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = -.90% / +2.81% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = -.80% / +1.73% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.34% / +3.87% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = +.34% / +4.45% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = -.69%/+3.59% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = -.53% /+1.07% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = -.23%/+4.54% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +.50% / +1.04% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = -.19% / +4.95% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 5.15% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site through July, which includes month to date performance through Friday, 10 August.
  • How frequently do you trade?
    Might Include
    - Tactical trades
    - Repositioning
    - Closing out a fund or other investment
    - Acquiring a new fund or other investment
    - Portfolio rebalancing
    What’s the purpose here? None, except to have some fun. I get the idea folks here trade a lot. My longest stretch without trading something the past 5 years is probably only a month. The core OEFs (7 or 8 funds) haven’t changed in at least a year. But I’ll rebalance a few of them every 6-12 months. It’s “around the edges” (approx. 20% of holdings) that’s held in ETFs, CEFs, individual stocks) that has gotten churned quite a bit.
    Anybody out there that hasn’t traded at least once in the last 12 months?
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    Thanks @gman57 for clarifying.
    @BaseballFan is spot-on in terms of the mood of most investors during those uncommon but spine-chilling episodes. Yes, the ‘87 flash-crash (about 25% down in a single afternoon) is emblazoned in my mind. Some of the older guys at work who were on the eve of retirement resembled pale ghosts walking the hallways the following day.
    Can still remember overhearing a young guy freaking out on his cellphone at the Atlanta airport sometime in 2000 while we waited for a connecting flight. His portfolio had fallen double-digits on several consecutive days and stocks were crumbling again as he spoke. (See data on NASDAQ 2000-2002 at bottom of post.)
    And in the spring of ‘08 I bumped into a long-lost HS friend (from the 60s) while shopping in a local market who appeaed sickened by having lost more than 30% of his IRA assets in the last 6-8 months. I gathered that he had been led to believe junk bonds were “safe” investments. He’d loaded up on them.
    The above merely paints an image of how humans in different situations react at these times. It’s not intended to exculpate them from blame or offer any advice going forward.
    *** “In 2000, the Nasdaq lost 39.28% of its value. In 2001, the Nasdaq lost 21.05% of its value. In 2002, the Nasdaq lost 31.53% of its value.” (Data from Google)
  • The Federal Reserve. Over many years, Presidents and politicians have.....
    Donnie would just cut rates to 0% immediately in the hopes that it would make him look like a stable genius..... and then he could finally wear a Kings crown. That's his supposed "instinct" at work.
    After filing Chapter 11 so many times, he is an expert at scalping OPM. This is something he has perfected. "Art of the Con".
  • The Federal Reserve. Over many years, Presidents and politicians have.....
    The fact that Trump's companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection six times was conveniently omitted.
    Exactly.
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    BTW... I'll never forget Black Monday...the faces on the fifty some year old engineers... walking around with a blank shell shocked expression at work.. similar looks from colleagues during the draw down during COVID...looked like someone stole their dog ...no joy...that far away look in their eyes...
    Definitely a lesson done somewhat learnt in 1987....my Dad covered me that evening..he took on the role of the central bank...told me whatever your drawdown was today if you're still in the hole one year later, I'll cover you.
    I remember my last large flush in the early 2000's...had a serious six figure drawdown... absolutely knew the bubble was going to burst the day I flew into Frisco and drove down to silicon valley...took me no time in traffic when usually it was a parking lot on the freeway...many of the little cafes in the office parks were closing....some clients who were extremely wealthy were getting out of the market...I should have taken action..
    I believe us humans have a psychological mechanism in which we block out unpleasant memories otherwise we'd never invest in the markets...
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    09 Aug, 2024:
    Larry Summers is up first, until 10:41 into the thing. Macro picture, politics...
    David Bianco. (I recall a Jim Bianco, too.). "Crossing the streams." Not-so-good messaging by the Fed, plus the bad jobs report lately, and the BOJ did not help with the volatility, raising rates. ...Dollar/yen rate. But we're at a safe distance from recession. Election uncertainty.
    DON'T CROSS THE STREAMS!
    Dive right in to 0:47.

    Greg Mankiw on the national debt. "Ordinary" problems vs. "extraordinary" problems.
    Michelle Flournoy on geopolitics, war, defense. Adopting A.I. makes for faster decisions. (Will they be good decisions?)
    Jack Hidary. More on AI.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-08-09/wall-street-week-08-09-2024
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (08/09/24)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    01:08 Topics
    01:52 The Nikkei's 1987 Moment
    06:12 A Monday Morning Panic
    14:21 Is Buffett Turning Bearish?
    20:41 Do We Really Need an "Emergency" Rate Cut?
    28:03 Why the Yield Curve is Close to Turning Positive Again
    32:09 Rising Credit Card Delinquencies
    35:40 High Yield Bonds Not Pricing in a Recession
    37:45 Q2 Earnings Update
    40:19 Lower Gas Prices
    Video
  • The Federal Reserve. Over many years, Presidents and politicians have.....
    "I think that in my case, I made a lot of money, I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than,
    in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman."

    The fact that Trump's companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection six times was conveniently omitted.
  • The Federal Reserve. Over many years, Presidents and politicians have.....
    Two options/scenarios:
    1 - Pending legislation in Senate & Congress to dissolve Federal Reserve Board.
    2 - Replace current FED governors/members/Chair with conservative candidates - just like Supreme court judges.
    ...
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    @Mark, on PC mouse, there is left-click (more common) that opens the link and right-click (less common) that open a menu.
    @msf, true, image link must be .jpg (lower quality), .png (higher quality), etc.
    So, if an image link doesn't end that way, then take a screenshot, upload to ImgBB, and use in MFO Image-tool.
    image
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Hi @David_Snowball
    Take a peek at this from Google Finance for DJT. The link is set at one month (1M). BUT, select any other time frame, as needed. Place 'the cursor' on the graph line for a particular date and pricing. ALSO, related news is below the graph.
    CHECK the 'income statement' below the news notes...YOW!!!
    Others have posted a 'how to' for image adds here. Perhaps they'll post again.
  • Change to T. Rowe Price High Yield Fund (nothing bad)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/754915/000174177324003447/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price High Yield Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated August 1, 2024
    On August 5, 2024, the Board of Directors of the T. Rowe Price High Yield Fund (“Fund”) approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (“Plan”) pursuant to which New America High Income Fund, Inc. (“New America”), a third-party closed-end fund, will transfer substantially all of its assets and stated liabilities to the Fund in exchange for Investor Class shares of the Fund. The reorganization is subject to approval by New America shareholders, who will be asked to vote on the proposal at their Annual Meeting of Shareholders expected to take place in November 2024. Following the reorganization, New America will liquidate. The reorganization will not result in any changes to the Fund’s fees and expenses or investment program nor require any action by Fund shareholders.
    The date of this supplement is August 8, 2024.
    F57-041 8/8/24
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2024
    Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2024
    Robo-advisors are now $1.09 trillion business. Those are no longer seen as steppingstones to other strategies. In fact both the young & the people approaching retirement like them. The leaders in the AUM now are all latecomers with financial &/or marketing muscle; the original pioneers Betterment & Wealthfront do have respectable presence. So, it isn't all about ERs. But the competition is tough & some big players like JPM, GS have left this business.
    Performance Ranking (overall based on multiple criteria): Fidelity, Merrill, SoFi, Vanguard, Wealthfront, Betterment, Schwab, Empower, Ally, USB, E*Trade/MS, SigFig, Wells Fargo, Acorns
    1-Yr Performance for Allocation 60-40: SoFi, Fidelity, Vanguard, Wealthfront, USB, Empower, Betterment, Merrill, Ally, Schwab
    AUM: Vanguard, Edelman, Morningstar, Fidelity, Schwab, Betterment, Wealthfront, Guided Choice
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-robo-advisors-c2b901fe?mod=hp_columnists
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    While I frequently watch the current iteration of WSW, it pales in comparison to Mr. Rukeyser's version.
    Pity indeed...
    If Lou were alive today he might sue Bloomberg for misrepresentation. I hope the “newbies” this thread is dedicated to realize that there is precious little similarity in substance, content, or in talent between the WSW named show of the 70s-90s and that of today.