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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
    This is what I came up with for AA.
    https://app.screencast.com/focrQYzX5b271
    There is a category called "ventures" which would be interesting to better understand.
    List of Ventures:
    https://app.screencast.com/tARS7gSpS6usi
    FWIW saying I am big into 3 of those 'ventures' in my long-long term portfolio. Great minds think alike, I guess. :)
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/06/11/fmr-fed-governor-mishkin-cpi-data-should-be-taken-with-a-grain-of-salt-heres-why.html?
    Another reliable voice (Former FED governor) says inflation numbers must be taken with "a grain of salt". Too early for the inflation to appear, as many importers are still rolling out pre-tariff supplies/materials that they previously stockpiled.
  • The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
    This is what I came up with for AA.
    https://app.screencast.com/focrQYzX5b271
    There is a category called "ventures" which would be interesting to better understand.
    List of Ventures:
    https://app.screencast.com/tARS7gSpS6usi
  • The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
    About 77% equities. I read about these guys over 15yrs ago. Then I ran into a recently retired Tampa Fireman/Paramedic; he was SUPER happy about their management.
  • Boeing and GE Areospace shares drop again following Air India 787 crash
    The Stocks - ”Boeing (NYSE:BA) shares fell as much as 3.5% on Friday, while GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE) shares dropped 2.6%, as both companies extended losses for a second straight session following a crash involving an Air India 787 Dreamliner aircraft.”
    Accident Details from BBC
  • How to invest when everything yields the same (originally WSJ)
    Thoughtful look at the yield scene today. (Dated June 8, 2025)
    ”Here’s an investment puzzle: Treasurys, stocks, cash and corporate bonds all yield about the same. Either risky assets are less rewarding than usual or safe assets are less safe than usual. Or, perhaps, both.”
    Article
    Side-note: No “flight to quality” today even with war raging in the Mideast and elsewhere. Bonds are falling / rates rising sharply.
  • I’ll never understand CEFs
    What trading securities do after ex-div is unpredictable - they may even go up enough to make up for distributions. CEFs are no exceptions.
    For GDL (high discount of 20%) that's involved in M&A arbitrage, there could be news related to one of its holdings. In looking at its portfolio holdings at M*, nothing jumped out, but I don't follow GDL in detail.
    BTW, GDL has managed-distribution policy, so some of the distribution can be ROC (18.75% in 2024).
  • I’ll never understand CEFs
    Several weeks ago I opened up a good sized position in Gabelli’s GDL fund. Had owned a much smaller amount for a couple months. Thinly traded with only a $95.7 Mil asset base. Took hours to acquire the desired number of shares. The CEF is an arbitrage fund that skims small profits from pending or nearly completed mergers & acquisitions. It’s the tamest CEF Gabelli offers with a record dating back 15+ years and which I’d expect to outpace cash by a percent or two over longer periods. (Gabelli himself is reported to own a big chunk.)
    Averaging in at $8.32, the fund has gone nowhere in the short time I owned it. Held steady around $8.32. Today’s the ex-dividend date (12-cents per share). While the fund opened lower as expected ($8.26) it quickly bounced to $8.35, well above its average price in recent days. I would not have expected it to go x-dividend and then jump in price over what it closed the day before - especially with the present Mid-East turmoil.
    I really don’t understand the logic here in a fund jumping higher on ex-dividend date after the dividend has been declared / pulled out. It would make more sense for investors to be pushing the price up in the days before the dividend is declared. Would be instructive to better understand investor behavior & psychology is these matters.
    I
  • Futures tonight after the attack against Iran

    found it. bloomberg energy expert last week suggested going long was a bad idea, and a conflict could provide a chance to short oil. he has an update.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-13/an-israel-iran-war-may-not-rattle-the-oil-market
  • The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
    (my kind of investing ... and why I went into my state's 403(b) versus the state pension system.)
    The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
    Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit. It doesn’t hire consultants to help it pick outside managers. Instead, for the past 50 years, its investments in stocks and bonds have been overseen by a single manager, Bowen, Hanes & Co., a nine-person firm led by Harold “Jay” Bowen III. In short, Tampa and Bowen Hanes do one thing, and the rest of the institutional world does something else.
    Consider the Tampa fund’s performance, though. It racked up a 32.2% return in the fiscal year ended in September. “Fiscal 2024 was—not only was it our 50th year, it was the best year the plan’s ever had,” says Bowen, 63. The return was good enough to rank the Tampa plan as the best performer for the period in the Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service’s database of plans with more than $1 billion in assets under management. Tampa was also No. 1 for 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 years.
    When the firm started by Bowen’s father began managing the Tampa Fire & Police pension in 1974, the plan had $12.1 million in assets. Fifty years later, in September 2024, the plan’s assets totaled $3.2 billion. What’s more, net of contributions, the system had paid out $1.8 billion to retirees. That means by investing in stocks and bonds, Bowen Hanes had in effect turned $12 million into almost $5 billion over 50 years.
    < - >
    Full archive link: https://archive.ph/3nTUd
    Fund holdings as of September 2024: https://www.tampa.gov/document/september-30-2024-fiscal-year-financial-statements-115286
  • Jimmy Buffett's Estate Co-Trustees Fight
    Jimmy Buffett's Estate Co-Trustees Fight
    You can make the best plans possible, but they can be spoiled when co-trustees fight.
    Jimmy Buffett left a $275 million estate when he passed away in 2023. In his Will, he provided for a marital trust with his wife (Jane Buffett) as income-beneficiary & his children as remainder-asset-beneficiaries (Savannah, Delaney and Cameron). He designated his wife and his business manager/financial advisor (Richard Mozenter) as co-trustees.
    Now, co-trustees are fighting accusing each other of noncooperation and not sharing financial information.
    It seems that RM is managing the Trust for very low current income ($2 million only) and is charging high fees ($1.7 million). This looks like an asset preservation strategy, but it became contentious when co-trustee RM told co-trustee wife Jane that there wasn't enough trust income to support her living expenses.
    Something looks very fishy. Even Bengen's 4% initial w/COLA can produce $11+ million/yr from $275 million to keep everyone happy. In fact, many marital trusts specify that income-beneficiary may get 5% as income and additional 5% of principal, if needed, and the trustees should manage the trust assets accordingly. That would make wife eligible for $13.75-27.5 million per year. Most living trusts spell this out. But maybe, the Will just mentioned the marital trust without including much details.
    These lawsuits may take a long time to resolve - now, 2 lawsuits are filed in different states and have to consolidated first. If the court decides that the current co-trustees have an unworkable relationship, then it may replace one of the co-trustees, or both co-trustees.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/13/jimmy-buffett-estate-family-trusts.html
    For more estate information, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/654/estate-planning-general
  • Who is Coming to G-7 in Canada?
    G-7 has a rotating presidency that is held by Canada this year. The G-7 President can also invite others as observers.
    In additional to the G-7 members (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US), invited are Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, S Korea, South Africa, Ukraine, UAE, Saudi Arabia (declined) and several international organizations.
    G-7 meeting is June 15-17 (Sunday-Tuesday) in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada.
    There are lots of geopolitical and economic issues for G-7 to discuss.
    https://www.nsnews.com/alberta-news/leaders-on-canadas-expanded-g7-guest-list-to-tackle-climate-economy-and-security-10804829
  • VGMS - Vanguard Multi Sector Bond ETF
    @Level5, agree with your pick. We own majority of those funds you showed.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    @Crash
    So, prudently looking ahead and paying attention should just not be a thing?
    Attention to what?
    I always pay attention only to the markets and nothing to politics. I must see it in the price and charts, and when I do, I take action. I'm going from 99+% invested at most times to 99+% in MM sometimes. My record is pretty good.
    @DrVenture
    If the FED does cut rates (stimulatory) and that adds to tariff pressures, we can blame Powell! It appears that Powell isn't falling for it.
    Cutting doesn't mean 1% tomorrow. It means 0.25% tomorrow, and let's see. It's all relative and based on the numbers.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    No, we must accept that inflation happens immediately, despite all the folks with in-depth experience telling us that it doesn't' work that way. And we should simply believe that a +10% tax on all imports ($3.4 trillion) is not going to drive up prices (or hurt profits) because it has not happened yet.
    And ignore that ADP reports 50% lower hiring rates since this time in 2025. Which clearly triggered Trump. I wonder why?
    The story is that jobs are great, inflation is subdued, so we need rate cuts? We shouldn't follow the data, rather follow what weaker economies are doing, elsewhere.
    I am glad we can all agree that all that stimulus from both Trump & Biden has finally worked itself out. That any future inflation will be from recent activities.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bought the following conservative outlay of funds this week designed to withstand whatever the future brings:
    -PRCFX & INPFX (~50% bond allocation funds)
    -FPFRX (FPA Crescent)
    -PRPFX (Permanent)
    -MVGAX (Global Low Volatility)
    Will cost-average in this summer, so would not complain if we see some consolidation by the markets....or a recession wake-up call.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    I just want to thank the OP for helping to bring about a very lively and informative discussion, even if the outcome was not what he intended. It may just be a matter of time before the rose-colored glasses are out of season, or go way up in price.
    So far, the numbers speak for themselves—the outcome has been good, and yet you still can’t admit it.
    How can you keep insisting everything is terrible when key indicators—like inflation and markets—are saying otherwise?
    Sure, the future could be worse. If and when that happens, we’ll deal with it. But let’s not rewrite the present based on hypotheticals.
    We should be looking at the overall state of the economy and markets, not filtering everything through politics. Ironically, I don’t remember hearing much noise here when:
    2022, under Biden, brought the highest inflation in four decades
    Bonds had their worst performance in 30–40 years
    Stocks were also down, hitting millions of Americans, especially those relying on bonds to protect their portfolios
    That was a truly bad outcome—and it'll be hard to top that kind of damage.
    As for Powell: he should be cutting rates, but he’s clearly hesitant—possibly because he doesn’t want to repeat past mistakes. Meanwhile, other central banks are already easing.
    So far YTD: SPY + QQQ made money, Europe made a lot more, bonds made money. After 50% in 2023+24 for SPY, any positive performance in 2025 will be great.
  • VGMS - Vanguard Multi Sector Bond ETF
    I’m finding that active HY and Multi-sector funds that focus on total return and return of investment (vs return on investment - e.g. see David Sherman) are more stable than funds tracking a HY index:
    RCTIX: max dd 2022 = -4.02
    RSIIX: max dd 2022 = -3.03
    CBLDX: 2022 = +1.01
    OSTIX: 2022 mx dd 2022 = -5.94
    ICMUX: 2022 mx dd = -3.16
    HYG: max dd 2022 = -10.99
    VOO: max dd 2022 = -18.19
    Note: I’ve also included M* multi-sector category because they hold significant lower rated bonds.
  • “No Worries: How to live a stress free financial life” - by Jared Dillian
    I was surprised last evening when at the beginning of Chapter 12 Dillian says he had never even heard of ”mutual funds” until 1997 when a shipmate aboard the CG cutter he served on bought a newspaper at a port and began scanning the financial section to see how his funds had done the day before.
    Geez - Some of us here had been investing in mutual funds for 25 years before this financial “expert” first heard of them. Maybe we should be teaching him!
  • T Rowe Price ETFs in registration
    update:
    https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20250612ph09243/t-rowe-price-adds-three-new-transparent-sector-offerings-to-its-active-etf-roster
    BALTIMORE, June 12, 2025
    The T. Rowe Price Financials ETF, Health Care ETF and Natural Resources ETF began trading today and expanded the firm's ETF lineup to 22
    BALTIMORE, June 12, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ-GS: TROW), a global investment management firm, announced today the addition of three new active transparent equity exchange-traded funds (ETF): T. Rowe Price Financials ETF (Ticker: TFNS), T. Rowe Price Health Care ETF (Ticker: TMED), and T. Rowe Price Natural Resources ETF (Ticker: TURF). The new funds began trading on NASDAQ today. T. Rowe Price's active ETF roster now sits at 22 offerings.