Thanks Yogi. Can’t confirm - but I get the impression Forsyth enjoys time away from that duty. It’s a demanding role. Must take a toll on one over time.
PS - The (alleged) comments Serwer attributes to NYC real estate magnates comparing their professional lives today as existing inside a “fishbowl” or “goat rodeo” are hilarious. :).
And then there’s Jack Hough: “My car seems to be beating the stock market.” - LOL
Hough’s whole article is a riot. Worth the price of the publication alone … Well, also somber if you’re in the market for a new car. New car prices are up 21% since September 2020. (Used car prices even more.) “Sub-$20,000 models” are “nearly extinct” - with those priced at under $25,000 “next in line” for extinction.
Agree with others - it’s an excellent article on International Funds by @LewisBraham. Very extensive and comprehensive look at opportunities in various corners of the international markets and the related trade-offs.

Andy Serwer is a heavy hitter hired by Barron's in January 2023. Since then, he has already done several feature stories, 1 cover story, and, yes, this week is his shot at the Up and Down Wall Street.
Andy Serwer's Barron's Stories https://www.barrons.com/authors/andy-serwer?mod=article_byline
Press Release https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/01/30/2597513/0/en/Andy-Serwer-Joins-Barron-s-as-Editor-at-Large.html

@hank, only the precious metal funds may own physical commodities. Most other commodity funds use futures for commodity exposures, and some may be leveraged via futures (i.e. more than 100% exposure).
My short list included those funds that select 10-15 best trending commodities from a pool of 20-25 commodities. Many other commodity funds may sound general in name but may have heavy concentrations in energy or ags.

Thanks for the links! Will be watching next week’s CPI reporting.
By the way, treasury yield curve moved up again on Friday. 4 mo T bill peaked at 5.04%. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202304

I had a hard time finding one "do eveything fund" Most focus on futures or energy, or follow a broad index, usually overweight energy.
I looked at most of the Agriculture ETFs and decided that MOO was best diversified stock focused Agriculture ETF. There are many ETFs that buy ag futures but I use DBA.
XME has 41% steel, 17% Coal 13% Gold 10% diversified mining 9% aluminum 5% Silver and 5% Copper
RTM is equal weight Basic Materials but has some consumer stocks as well
GRHAX focuses on Natural resources but depending on the manger's outlook can become heavily invested in certain sectors. Currently 65% in energy mostly oil and gas. I don't think it is available at Fido. There I have some of wife's money in DNLAX, although the portfolio managers changed in 2020. They try to predict what commodity/ economic cycle is coming up an weight accordingly.
I don't think this is exactly what you are looking for, but I hope it helps.

A large impact on the upcoming March year-over-year CPI value will be the removal of March 2022's 1.34% contribution (287.504/283.716 = 1.013351...). Good-sized drops in YoY CPI are also likely to occur when May and June 2022 drop out, assuming monthly inflation this spring remains subdued:
May 2022 1.10% (292.296/289.109)
June 2022 1.37% (296.311/292.296)
This can be readily observed in the chart @yogibearbull recently linked:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=128qr
Link to Cleveland Fed's inflation Nowcast:
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
A table of individual months' CPI values, updated each month:
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/consumerpriceindexhistorical_us_table.htm

Thanks for commenting @Observant1 - I appreciate links so much more when folks add a personal comment. Generally, the only time I’ll watch a linked video is if the poster has commented on it.
Benz’s “Buckets” conjure up an image of somebody in a Bonanza - like western walking to and from the well. Prefer “allocation model” myself, although the label doesn’t matter much. In both personal and financial affairs I’m usually better off having a disciplined approach. So I’d be lost without my allocation model written down and securely stored among the digital archives. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on viewpoint) mine is a whole lot more complex than Benz’s. It’s evolved over nearly 25 years in retirement as my knowledge base has grown, opportunities available have multiplied and age has advanced. I’d hate being still crammed into the same “bucket(s)” today as a quarter-century ago.
Benz is no Einstein, but she appears generally well versed on the fund landscape as one would expect from Morningstar. I think 25-30 years back when I was in the process of ditching the Templeton assigned “advisor” (commanding a 4%+ front load) and developing my own self directed investment approach Benz’s advice would have been both stimulating and helpful. Today, not much. I think she’s appealing mainly to inexperienced investors.
Some pertinent thoughts / observations:
- Benz leads off characterizing bonds as a portfolio-wrecking “torpedo” in 2022. An interesting analogy, though I might have said “weighty anchor”. Equities could have have sunk your investment sloop even faster and driven it deeper than bonds last year, depending, of course, on which ones.
- Benz suggests holding 1-2 years worth of cash reserve to “ride out” rough stretches of the market. Surely this is optimistic. While not one to hold a lot of cash myself, in reading others’ posts over the years it appears that her suggested 1-2 years worth of cash reserve is on the low end. Some well-versed investors here who subscribe to the “rainy day” approach have been known to hold anywhere from 3 to 5 years’ supply of cash to draw on in event of a prolonged bear market - a more realistic time frame. (Either you have religion or you don’t.)
- Just 3 buckets seems rather basic - actually pretty simplistic.
- The contents of Benz’s buckets appear to slosh around a bit. She mentions international funds “might be” an asset to include today. OK. Probably good advice. But a staunch “bucketeer” might well adhere to static allocations, periodically rebalancing. Adding / deleting components would appear tantamount to going off the reservation. She suggests some precious metals (now that they’ve appreciated significantly). Consider that there have been periods as brief as 2 or 3 years over which precious metals funds have fallen 50% or more. How many novice investors (to whom she seems to be appealing) would have the staying power to hold on to to an asset like that near the bottom?
- She’s fond of index funds. If one has a 10-25 year time horizon that’s probably great advice. Over longer periods lower fees should translate into better outcomes. But it’s not that simple. First, today’s investors generally have shorter time horizons / are prone to hold funds for shorter periods than a generation ago. Timing decisions might well impact returns more than fees. Secondly, the advice to invest in indexes ignores the extent to which some of those may have become distorted / overpriced after decades of outperformance. For example, the cap-weighted S&P 500 might not be the best place to invest today. Some knowledgeable investors actually maintain small short positions on it, wagering, in effect, that other market areas will outperform.

Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
(Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/23)
Pg L3: After lagging for several years, the INTERNATIONAL/GLOBAL funds are relatively cheap (value cheaper than growth) and may outperform. Use risk control strategies – lower SDs, favorable U/D CR, etc. For the US investors in foreign funds, a strong DOLLAR has been a headwind. OEFs: AIVBX, BISAX, FISMX, FMIJX, GQGPX, RNWOX, SGENX, SIGIX, TBGVX; ETFs: ACWV, EFA, EFAV, EFG, EFV, EEM, HDG, HEFA, VIGI. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
Pg L8: The US-China DECOUPLING will take a while. China has also been tough on its big techs. But small-caps have escaped the watchful eyes of the Chinese government. OEFs: FHKCX, MCDFX, MCHFX, MCSMX, RNWOX, SIGIX, SGOVX; ETFs: ASHR, CHIQ, CNYA, CQQQ, CXSE, EWH, FXI, GXC, KBA, KWEB, MCHI, PGJ. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
Pg L9: GROWTH funds are rebounding, but be selective. Some former big techs have fallen off the growth wagon and some energy companies have joined. Large-cap growth (IVW, MGK, RPG, SCHG) has been outperforming small/mid-cap growth (IJT, RZG). The OEFs mentioned are HCAIX, TRBCX, VWIGX.
EXTRA: FAITH-BASED funds cover a wide variety and several are rebounding. Vatican published its investment guidelines in November 2022 that also included responsible ESG. Private direct-indexing is a growing area. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Forthcoming Part 2).
Pg 13, FUNDS. MUNI MONEY-MARKET funds (tax-exempt) with near juicy 4% yields are attractive. This is a tiny area with $130 billion AUM only vs $500 billion AUM pre-GFC-2008, and $5 trillion AUM for taxable money-market funds. These invest in floating-rate munis (VRDNs) that reset rates weekly according to the SIFMA rates. Typically, the SIFMA rates are 40-80% of (taxable) fed fund rates, but they are elevated now due to redemptions to pay taxes (so, these high rates may not last beyond April). These funds partner with BANKS to provide daily and weekly liquidity guarantees. By definition, their DURATION is considered to be the rate reset period regardless of the maturities of the underlying munis (so, don’t get alarmed when looking at their holdings and maturities). Mentioned are FTEXX / FTCXX, SWTXX, VMSXX, VTMXX. (Their overall structure and rate resetting process seem complicated and may have unknown risks)
Pg 24, INCOME INVESTING. Selected REITs are attractive after their recent battering. Their earnings have been cut but the SP5500 earnings remain OK (so, the REITs client companies are doing fine). A FED pause will benefit the REITs, but RECESSION won’t, so it’s time only to nibble in REITs. Attractive REITs are industrial (PLD, ADC, GLPI), residential, self-storage, data-centers. Avoid REITs for offices and malls (big/regional or strip/local). Several publicly traded REITs are more attractive than private real estate (that suffer from lagging mark-to-market; negative news on monthly/quarterly redemption limits for several nontraded-REITs).
Pg L33: In 2023/Q1 (SP500 +7.50%): Among general equity funds, best were LC-growth +13.52%, multi-cap-growth +11.35%, and worst were small-cap-value +0.77%, mid-cap-value +0.84%, equity-income +0.95%; ALL general equity categories were positive AGAIN. Among other equity funds, the best were sc & tech +18.80%, telecom +11.66%, global large-cap-growth +11.10%, and worst were financials -7.77%. Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI +2.55%, world income +2.96%; ALL FI categories were positive too AGAIN (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s). So, good 2022/Q4 (value shined) & 2023/Q1 (LC growth shined).
LINK

April 7, 2023:

Banks, private capital, real estate. Summers on collecting arrears from the wealthy.

Upon examination again you are correct, CME indicated 25 bps hike in May.
Preliminary March CPI data from Kiplinger,

As for the next CPI report, the March inflation figures are slated for release by the BLS on Wednesday, April 12 at 8:30 am Eastern time. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's "Nowcast" (opens in new tab) predicts headline inflation to increase by 5.2% year-over-year. That would represent a slowdown from the 6% increase in prices seen in the February CPI report. On a monthly basis, March inflation is forecast to rise 0.3%, down from a gain of 0.4% in February.

https://kiplinger.com/investing/when-is-the-next-cpi-report
Also read the same data from Reuters. Perhaps this will increase the probability of a small rate hike.

T Rowe Price/TROW has bought the retirement income software firm Retiree Inc. This Software can take into account a variety of household accounts to come up with retirement solutions to meet various goals (optimize income, bequest value, etc). BTW, several firms offer retirement income calculator that may have limited capabilities.
News: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/03/30/t-rowe-price-to-buy-income-planning-software-maker/
Websites
https://www.retireeincome.com/
https://incomestrategy.com/
Founders: https://incomestrategy.com/about-us-2/
Initial Source: Kitces at TwitterLink

It looks like the instructions are the same, aside from Yogi's edit warning to check a box (either savings or checking) rather than leave it blank.
Reiterating my prior warning - it looks like refund money that is sent electronically will be applied against your annual $10K limit for buying electronic Series I savings bonds. It won't up your limit to $15K:
Providing these instructions in the "refund" area on your tax return will direct your refund to the Zero-Percent C of I in your TreasuryDirect account where it will be available to fund the purchase of one or more Treasury securities.
Same as if the cash had come from your bank.
If your sole objective is to get cash into Treasury Direct in order to buy savings bonds, you could just transfer $2500 from your bank account now instead of waiting for the $2500 from your tax refund to hit TD. That way, you'll be able to control when you purchase savings bonds (the rates change at the end of this month).

See https://treasurydirect.gov/research-center/
"Using Your Tax Refund for TreasuryDirect
Do you know you can have your tax refund directed to your TreasuryDirect account to use for Treasury security purchases?
TreasuryDirect offers flexible options for all your security purchases. One option to fund your account is to use your tax refund.
You can request the IRS or your state tax department to deposit your tax return directly into your TreasuryDirect account where you can use the funds to purchase savings bonds or marketable Treasury securities. All you need to do is provide TreasuryDirect's routing number and your TreasuryDirect account number in the refund instructions on your tax return.
On your tax return, enter:
the TreasuryDirect routing number, 051736158, in the “Routing number” field.
your TreasuryDirect account number in the “Account number” field.
“Savings” as the account type.
Providing these instructions in the "refund" area on your tax return will direct your refund to the Zero-Percent C of I in your TreasuryDirect account where it will be available to fund the purchase of one or more Treasury securities."
Edit/Add: Instructions about "Savings" may be important. One year, I forgot to checkmark "Checking" for my bank checking a/c and I got a paper check. The IRS couldn't figure out whether it was checking or savings although I had used that checking account previously.

Can we assume the instructions for having IRS send your refund to your TD account instead of your Bank account are the same as TD instructions to have employer send in money directly
"To have your employer send the money
You will fill out a direct deposit form that needs this information:
The "receiving bank name": TREASURYDIRECT (all capitals, no space)
The routing number for TreasuryDirect: 051736158
Your 10-digit TreasuryDirect account number, no hyphens, with a P at the end
(Example: A123456789P)
How much money you want to have your employer send from each paycheck
Where the form asks if this is a savings account (22) or a checking account (23), you can choose either. That doesn't matter to our system."
The form 8888 instructions say
An account can be a checking, savings,
or other account such as an IRA, HSA,
Archer MSA, ESA, or TreasuryDirect®
online account.
IT would probably work, but I am not sure I want to risk my $2500 refund. Still the form 8888 instructions say if the electronic account rejects your refund, they will issue paper check.
Anybody tried this?
I have to file on paper this year so who knows how long it will take for me to find out.

No. CME FedWatch is showing +25 bps only from the current 4.75-5.00% to 5.00-5.25%.

@yogibb, am I reading the CME FedWatch correctly that the 67% of probability of 50 bps rat hike in May?

@BenWP, @JD_co to be fair had I been thinking right I suppose I should have compared OMFL to a more appropriate benchmark i.e. the Russell 1000 index. Those comparisons are a bit mixed but still reflect well on the fund. Attached is a link to the fund's Fact Sheet.
OMFL Fact Sheet
@BenWP - regarding the funds distributions that was my assumption as well.

Started a position in OMFL. No good reason other than it has beaten the S&P500 for total return over the last 5 years.

Interesting...OMFL has beaten the S&P 500 in each 1 of those 5 calendar years.

Year OMFL S&P 500
2018 -2.57% -4.52%
2019 35.58% 31.33%
2020 20.96% 18.25%
2021 28.96% 28.53%
2022 -13.97% -18.23%
2023 (YTD) 8.78% 7.46%

Does sentiment have anything to do with the extent to which cable networks like Bloomberg cover the markets? More and more Bloomberg’s evening programing consists of taped interviews or hour-long paid commercials. Sometimes that’s the major portion of what appears after market close up until 1:00 AM when they pick up on Asian markets. (I realize not everyone finds the talking heads all that useful or even worth watching. But ISTM that’s a separate issue.)
Just wondering if the recent diminished coverage is because fewer retail investors tune in anymore since they’re discouraged by recent market losses and are seemingly all herding into 5% money market funds, CDs or short-term T-Bills? It may be that to attract a large audience, prosper and provide 24 hour market coverage there needs to be a bull market going in U.S. equities … Of course, all broadcast news has deteriorated markedly of late (excluding PBS). Remember the “hey-days” of the late 90s when cable financial news soared in popularity along with the stock markets? And Rukeyser? Would anyone even watch him in today’s age?
It seems some came to expect 15-25% market returns every year. It ain’t that way folks. :)

Started a position in OMFL. No good reason other than it has beaten the S&P500 for total return over the last 5 years.