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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    I also concur with @rforno 's observations, at least the first few. (I don't invest directly with foreign equities or do realtime trading.)
    Several years ago when I had accounts at both brokerages I compared bond prices and came to the same conclusion that Fidelity was slightly better. Curiously, the full service broker I used for munis was finding bonds for me at prices that essentially matched Fidelity's.
    Regarding Fidelity cash management - it will shortly be adding SPAXX (current SEC yield is 4.97%) as a core account option to its CMA account. Currently you're limited to a bank sweep paying 2.69% APR (2.72% APY).
    Regarding trading equities and ETFs: Schwab receives payment for order flow. Fidelity does not. (It does receive PFOF on options.) You can search for newer figures, but in 2021 "Order flow revenue made up approximately ten percent of [Schwab's] total revenue."
    https://www.aboutschwab.com/story/schwab-statement-on-payment-for-order-flow
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    https://brokerchooser.com/education/news/data-dashboard/payment-for-order-flow
  • About the 4% rule
    I'm not sure everyone is clear on the meaning of the 4% rule. The objectives are simplicity and very high confidence that one will not run out of money within 30 years.
    Conditions will surely change -- but we don't know when or in which direction -- adjust as necessary
    Simplicity: just stay the course, KISS, come hell or high water. No adjustments necessary.
    Gives example of how a target date fund
    Simplicity: Target date funds follow glide paths. The 4% rule hews to a fixed allocation.
    How can you straight line the 4% without taking these inputs into consideration.
    Starting in 1926, a 4% (inflation adjusted) withdrawal regimen from a 50/50 portfolio has never depleted assets in under 30 years. That includes starting in years like 1929, 1973, 1981, etc. The rule already incorporates objective risk, assuming past is prologue.
    That's not to say that people are subjectively able to handle sequence of return risk. And some people may want to plan for more than 30 years, either because they expect a longer life in retirement or their end target value is not simply "better than $0". They want to leave a legacy. And stuff happens; people may not be able to keep to a 4% budget.
    ISTM the biggest risk in the 4% rule is being left with too much money. Planning for worst case without adjustments is necessarily conservative and likely to "fail" on the upside (not spending enough). But by definition any strategy that includes making adjustments is not the simplest possible.
    For those who want to limit the risk of underspending, are willing to accept some risk of having less to spend in some years than they might otherwise like, and can manage more complex strategies (or are willing to hire someone else to do that), @Observant1 cited a good discussion of a couple of such strategies.
    Finally, using cash is very likely to fail. Over the past 96 years (1928-2023 inclusive), 3 mo. T-bill real returns have averaged 0.32%. (See cell T120 here.) Take 4%/year off of that and you're losing more than 3.5% annually. Even without compounding the loss, you'll run out of money in under 30 years.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    Thanks for the insights re Fido. . The first & only brokerage account for me.
    A bit hard to spot, but with your account positions displayed, there is a link at the top called “more”. Clicking that pulls up their portfolio analyzer. Decent, ISTM, but not great. It bugs me every time about having “a portfolio concentration” (5% in NSRGY) which it seems to feel is in some way bad. And without any concentration it says “Great job.” … Am I to sell some NSRGY just to receive their “Great job” accolade? I think not. :)
    I’m confident that if @Stillers or @FD1000 used their analyzer both would receive a “Great Great Great Job” response.
  • Reality check
    (I received this in an email stating that this was posted on X.) Maybe check your holdings.
    ° Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia shares have rallied by a massive 27% year to date.
    ° This accounts for most of the S&P 500's 11% year-to-date gain.
    ° By comparison, the remaining 495 companies have only seen a 6% gain this year.
    ° Furthermore, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index is up just 5% in 2024.
    ° Currently, the 6 largest S&P 500 components reflect a record ~30% of the index.
    ° Truly remarkable.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)

    So I opened up a Fido account last week to explore their offerings / experience. The internet is awash with Schwab-v-Fido comparisons, reviews, groupies, and detractors, but nothing beats first-hand due diligence and impressions, obviously.
    From what I can tell thus far:
    Cash management seems much nicer/efficient than Schwab, since they auto-sell MMFs to cover purchases and sweep into MMFs versus a pissant-paying bank account. (Which I knew anyway)
    FI prices seem somewhat more competitive - I notice a few points difference between Schwab and Fido when scanning for treasuries and corporates, which presumably is another way Schwab eekes a few more bucks out of people.
    Schwab doesn't let me reinvest foreign (Canada) dividends, but I understand that Fido doesn't reinvest preferred dividends.
    'Active Trader Pro' blows battleship-sized chunks compared to ThinkorSwim. Seems trapped in 1999 and is downright ugly, too.
    Research on Schwab is far better - access to a bunch of quant sources and full M* reports. Fido just offers a few newsfeeds like Benzinga.
    I've had some data problems on Schwab recently. For over a month, a preferred stock position does not show up on the income projections screen and the data never updates, despite it being a liquid stock.
    ... while I'm not sure 'the grass is always greener' I'm inclined to stay put at Schwab since both seem generally okay ... but I'm still poking around Fido for curiosity's sake just in case Blue's service/experience ever really goes south. *shrug*
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/5/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/5/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (39.0%, above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (29.0%, below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (32.0%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +7.0% (average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (119+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (34+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. ECB to cut rates today. EMs - Claudia SCHEINBAUM is the new President of Mexico; Narendra MODI will continue as Prime Minister of India for a 3rd term. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1505/thread
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    Special edition of The Week In Charts - The State of the Markets June 2024.
    The state of the markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:21 Topics
    00:34 Stocks
    10:25 Bonds/Fed
    22:33 Real Estate/Housing
    31:58 Commodities
    36:46 Currencies
    39:09 Crypto
    43:02 Intermarket
    49:53 Economy
    56:03 Free Wealth Path Analysis
    Video
  • Todays’s a good reason why it’s dangerous to short markets …
    @stillers I'm with you on FSELX. It was the first purchase in my wife's Roth IRA back in 1998. Bought some more two years later. Needless to say, she's happy with the 25-year tax-free growth.
    It's also my biggest holding in my Rollover IRA.
    I have some ASML in my Roth IRA.
    Sometimes it's a wild ride, but I'm patient. Aggressively so, for an octogenarian.
    When our teenage grandson became interested in investing a couple of years ago, I insisted he buy SMH first.
    David
  • Nvidia “Leapfrogs” Apple in Value
    ”The shares of the Santa Clara, California-based firm have rallied roughly 147% this year, adding about $1.8 trillion … On Wednesday, (NVDA) shares rose 5.2% to close at a record $1,224.40, pushing the market value to more than $3 trillion and overtaking Apple Inc. (AAPL) in the process.”
    Excerpt from Bloomberg Media - June 5, 2024
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    IMO, the most compelling CP CD rates are at 5 years. This is a moment in time that will pass far quicker than many here think. Not sure what is compelling about 1-12 mo rates when Prime MMkt funds are paying just about the same and provide full flexibility for that bucket.
  • Todays’s a good reason why it’s dangerous to short markets …
    Markets love the Zoloft!
    ”Wearing Lampshades Like It's 1999” - Bill Fleckenstein’s header tonight (The Daily Rap)
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 12/16/23
    This SEC has been a disappointment. They are just entertaining themselves with small stuff and missing big stuff like SBF. The whole Alameda and FTX complex was allowed to continue until market forces took them down. One may say prior SECs were not a prize either, given how they missed Madoff, MCI-WorldCom, Enron, Jon S. Corzine firm, etc. and only market forces took them down. If you pay SEC for what they catch and levy a penalty for the stuff they miss, they would function better. They are too busy thinking about their careers after SEC.
    +1 .... and that's before you throw in politics into the mix as well. :/
  • Stashing cash, Summer 2024
    Seems a few here are reducing floating rates. Probably not a bad move. All the bond traders appear to be loaded to the gills in floating rate/CLOs, including me. So have been reducing there a bit if only because the boat seems so crowded. Bought some junk munis this week. Friday’s employment report will be pivotal to this current move down in the 10 year or if instead we go back to the higher for longer mode.
  • Stashing cash, Summer 2024
    @rforno: Didn't feel 100% going into floaters at this point in time, especially in large amounts. Rather than cogitate about it too much, I just went with a straight treasury fund instead ... will draw that down as I buy other equities over the next several months if/when/as volatility presents itself.
    Good call, I'd say. I've started reducing floaters from a large chunk to more of a medium-sized chunk, and ready to go further if conditions call for it. The strength of the move down in T rates is saying to start heading in that direction, imho.
    More or less like @Sven, I've been working on a collection of 1y and 2y T's, thinking even the reduced current rates are probably going to look pretty good over the next year or two.
  • Todays’s a good reason why it’s dangerous to short markets …
    NASDAQ up 1.5% as of 1:20 PM
    +1 if you’re riding the wave. Me too old & conservative to partake - though some limited exposure thru funds.
    ADD - Make that 2% at the close (NASDAQ @ 17,188)
  • About the 4% rule
    Rob Berger discusses the 4% rule and how to wrestle with retirement success.

  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bought 1000s Spire-A shares for income ... callable in October.
    Bought 500s TRP following yesterday's shareholder vote on Southbow spinoff. Not sure I'll keep the spinoff shares but I like TC's pipeline footprint.
    (I may move PBA and TRP over to my new Fido account if they'll let me reinvest Canadian dividends, which Schwab won't.)