Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    ”Stay away from it. If possible.”
    Yes. Stay away from timing. Agree.
    But stay away from considering relative valuations? No. Asset valuations fluctuate over time. To some extent, herd mentality plays a part. None of us has a crystal ball in that regard either. But part of being an investor - professional or retail - is trying to assess relative valuations, be it in large-cap stocks, small-cap, EM or developed global markets.
    There was, I think, a lot of “timing” going on in the retail sector in mid ‘22 - a mere 10 months ago. Many unloaded equities due to predictions of approaching recession. Here is an intriguing MFO thread from September, 2022. Pretty typical of the prevailing retail tenor of the day. Where was the buoyant optimism of today back than?
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/153670/#Comment_153670
    - One comment: ”I think you have to be worried that it will take five years for stocks to recover.”
    - Another: ”Gloomy now, just think how bad it would be if we were in a *recession*”
    - Another: ”Ty for the heads up. Not sure what to do now - wait w cash /buy more CDs hoping crisis will pass.”
    - And from the excerpted NYT passage: ”Mr. Tangen, of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, said that he did not think there was an investment area anywhere in the world likely to make money in the near future. ‘That’s the really depressing thing,’ he said.”
    The NYT article, which the distinguished @Old_Joe posted at the top of that thread, is dated Sept. 16, 2022. Below is a link to the closing averages for that day. Would you rather buy the S&P back than at 3873 or today at 4555? https://www.coastalwealthmanagement24.com/the-markets-as-of-market-close-friday-september-16-2022/
    Despite the air of pessimism running through the thread, a number of posters did see a buying opportunity. @LewisBraham, for one, suggested it might possibly be a good time to buy equities - and made exquisitely good sense as usual. @Junkster mentioned that HY might be a good buy.
    Deciding what to own / what to hedge (if anything) relates to assessing relative valuations. I claim no particular acumen in that regard. Just saying, timing aside (don’t do it), there is always the more critical question of relative valuations to consider.
  • quick reminder: please don't be a troll
    There is a "flag" option on each post. Not exactly sure what that does, but worth a try. I agree with @dtconroe. I can choose not to listen to 1 poster, but the bullying from the other should be stopped. He has done it to me and others.
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    Something along the lines of “dear god. Make them wise. Just not yet”.
    Good line. And I realize it’s speaking about all us less sophisticated “retail” investors - not the sophisticated pros like the people at PIMCO.
    Need some definitions of “wise” here … Would that be throwing 100% into equities? Perhaps via an inexpensive index fund? Or maybe using an inexpensive a 60/40 balanced fund like DODBX would fit the definition. Or, just possibly, true wisdom would be to just hand it all over to T. Rowe’s wildly popular superstar (who, incidentally, has traded puts in the past) … Oh - I forgot - Not everyone can get in, though it doesn’t keep them from jumping through hoops in an effort to give Mr. G their money.
  • Yogi Bear Bull Is ill.
    @yogibearbull : Thanks for the update & glad to hear you're recovering. I guess the shots aren't 100 % , but probably cut down on the severity of the illness ?
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?

    @msf
    href="https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/tmsrx/portfolio">per M*? A mere trifle. PIMIX / PONAX, a fund lauded here, has129% in fixed income shorts (net 188% long), and has 222% in cash shorts (net 89% short) suggesting a lot of leverage. Figures from M*.
    Unfortunately M* has been off for years about PIMIX. I downloaded the last PIMCO+Bond+Stats+2023+06.xlsx from Pimco.
    image
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    Hedging in the classical sense means protecting against (major) losses - think insurance.
    The "protective put" mentioned above is a good example and can be analogized to collision insurance. You pay for collision insurance (a stock put). Without insurance, if your car is totaled (stock price plummets), you're stuck with salvage value (severely depressed stock price). With insurance, you get back a fair percentage of the car value (stock purchase price).
    One speaks of "hedging one's bets". Merriam-Webster defines this as doing "things that will prevent great loss or failure if future events do not happen as one plans or hopes." It gives the example: "They decided to hedge their bets by putting half their money in stocks and the other half in bonds."
    That's hedging, or insurance. You're paying something (opportunity cost of greater stock earnings) to protect against greater losses (100% equity exposure in a market crash).
    So one answer to the original question is: everyone hedges, though most probably don't think of asset allocation as hedging.
    Unfortunately (IMHO), "hedging" has become synonymous with any tinkering with risk, whether to decrease it, to increase it, or to shift it from one security (or asset class) to another.
    Worried about TMSRX, that has 29% in equity shorts (net 15% short position), and 47% in fixed income shorts (net 12% long), per M*? A mere trifle. PIMIX / PONAX, a fund lauded here, has129% in fixed income shorts (net 188% long), and has 222% in cash shorts (net 89% short) suggesting a lot of leverage. Figures from M*.
    The trick is to know (a) why the manager is hedging (for protection or profit or both), and (b) how the heding is done (i.e. how is the risk profile being altered). ISTM knowing the first is possible (from manager statements, fund behavior) but knowing the second is difficult. Hence a natural aversion to "excessive" hedging.
  • Reorganization at Grandeur Peak Global Advisors (similar to Rondure post)
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834423013179/fp0084407-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0084407-3_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Contrarian Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Explorer Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Reach Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Stalwarts Fund
    Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund
    Grandeur Peak International Stalwarts Fund
    Grandeur Peak US Stalwarts Fund
    (each, a “Fund”)
    Supplement dated July 17, 2023
    To the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
    each dated August 31, 2022, as supplemented
    The Funds’ Reorganization date, as previously announced in the Supplement dated June 16, 2023 to the Funds’ Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI, has been extended to on or about October 6, 2023.
    For additional information regarding the Funds’ Reorganization, see the Supplement dated June 16, 2023 to the Funds’ Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
    *********
    Please retain this supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
  • Reorganization at Rondure Global Advisors
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834423013179/fp0084407-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0084407-1_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    Rondure New World Fund
    Rondure Overseas Fund
    (each, a “Fund”)
    Supplement dated July 17, 2023
    To the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
    each dated August 31, 2022, as supplemented
    The Funds’ Reorganization date, as previously announced in the Supplement dated June 16, 2023 to the Funds’ Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI, has been extended to on or about October 6, 2023.
    For additional information regarding the Funds’ Reorganization, see the Supplement dated June 16, 2023 to the Funds’ Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
    *********
    Please retain this supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of
    Additional Information.
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    Thanks @MikeM
    I’m looking at JHQAX right now thru my subscription to the FT. It shows 97.6% long U.S. equity, 1.82% long non-U.S. equity. No shorts. Top 5 equities: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet. Those 5 comprise over 23% of portfolio. All 5 of those stocks, except Amazon, have gained over 30% the past 1 year. And Nvidia is up 200% over that time. So, how that fund hedges is a mystery looking at the chart. I imagine it sells buys puts on its holdings. Pretty common practice. Giroux was big into that several years ago. But don’t know about today.
    Re Nvidia, I noticed the other day it was one of the top 2 or 3 holdings in PRPFX. The fund does invest in “aggressive growth stocks.” So I guess it struck “gold” with that one.
    Don’t know about Schwab’s site. But Fido’s analytical tool will show short positions as a % of any asset you own and subtract that sum to display your “net” long equity position. Good tool. Shows me 50% equity long, 8% short for a net 42% equities, Sounds about right considering all my holdings plus a 1.5% short position (SPDN) I initiated directly yesterday. Interestingly, it also shows a small (4%) short position in short term bonds. Possibly one of my alternatives has figured out how to do that.
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    I hold JHQAX, JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund. I bought in over 2 years ago and have added to it to a point where it is about 10% of my portfolio. We've talked about this fund before and I guess I really can't explain very well the put-call spread collar strategy it uses. I only know it moves with the S&P500 with a much smoother ride. As a hedge fund, it's a way of participating in the equity markets at much less volatility. It just rolls along making money when the market is going up and losing much less when the market declines (upside capture ratio ~51%, downside ~36%.)... FWIW.
  • Yogi Bear Bull Is ill.
    Update, 7/18/23
    Thanks for all the well wishes and prayers for recovery.
    Current Score: YBB 1, Pneumonia 0.
    I just completed a 5-day course of a strong antibiotics. It didn’t do much for 3 days – that was disheartening at one point. But then, things improved dramatically. Full recovery will take time. I would have to be cautious about a relapse. I will also think about where and how I caught a sudden pneumonia that literally knocked me out – almost.
    I had all the pneumonia shots PPSV-23, Prevnar-13. Now they have a combo/single vaccine, and at some point, I may have that too – this current infection should cause natural immunity for a good while.
    Thanks to Capital at Big Bang, @ceciljk at MFO, @eceprof at M* for posting information at those discussion boards.
  • GQHPX
    May have to buy some of this GQHIX eventually. Continues to perform well within my risk toerance since inception. 2023 struggling. TDA/Schwab merger.....Schwab carries this at reasonable min.
    Question: Anyone know the ticker of the Vontobel EM fund he managed mid 90's?
    [snip]
    Rajiv Jain started managing Vontobel Fund - Emerging Markets Equity Fund in 1997.
    I didn't find a US ticker since the fund is domiciled in Luxembourg.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation and Income Fund in registration
    Note the September 2017 link to MFO @TheShadow provided. Quite an extensive discussion / though I have no recollection of it. Sounds like Giroux was already larger than life way back than.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation and Income Fund in registration
    I've sadly not watched BBG in months, but that concerns me.....
    On the first point +1. You haven’t missed anything.
    On the second point, I guess it’s the frequency more than the content of TRP’s latest ad. Most of the big players run them. Personally, I enjoy those from Dodge & Cox best. :)
    T. Rowe Price ”You Can’t Buy” 2023 Spot TV Ad
    https://www.ispot.tv/ad/12T4/t-rowe-price-you-cant-buy
  • Need a solid, good, consistent, un-flashy AA fund. (Closed thread.)
    har and cool, comical and astounding
    There's a big honkin' footnote for Great Owls, M*, Lipper, Zacks ....
    https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2117450/4-balanced-mutual-funds-to-buy-for-stability-in-uncertain-times
    https://www.morningstar.com/asset-management-companies/state-farm-BN00000A2N
    All as casual as I in their labor.
    (Maybe some do catch that exclusion, as I am being casual here too.)
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    Thanks for the thoughts @Baseball_Fan
    As to your question, I’ve viewed the issue both as a possible long term tactic and, more importantly, as a near-term proposition.
    Longer term is tough to justify. But if you are a good stock picker (I’m not) you could argue that your investments will do much better than the general market. Shorting the general market (in an unspecified amount) might allow you to take additional risk in the stocks you are more comfortable with. The shorts will provide a degree of protection in sharp sell offs while your stock choices will outperform the overall market most of the time.
    ISTM that’s the philosophy behind most long-short funds. Maybe market neutral and hedged equity too - not sure. I’m pretty sure T. Rowe’s TMSRX has a small short position. And their globally diversified RPGAX used to include a 10% weighting in a Blackstone hedge fund that employed shorts. Don’t know if it does any more. Just to say the notion’s not as far-fetched as might sound.
    Shorter term, I’m struck by the near unanimity of some pretty smart investors in the Barron’s Roundtable that (1) The S&P is greatly overvalued and (2) there are still many attractive stocks in many other areas. It would seem logical to short the S&P while adding to your undervalued equity areas? No.
    I realize it’s not that simple. The old adage about ”Markets can remain irrational longer than most investors can remain solvent” applies.
  • Need a solid, good, consistent, un-flashy AA fund. (Closed thread.)
    TRAIX @ Schwab. This discussion got me curious if this fund could be purchased at Schwab. I went to trade mutual fund and put in the symbol. To my surprise it told me that fund required a $1.00 minimum and no transaction charge. When I tried to buy it the order was not accepted and said to call in. Long story short I was told there was an error in the software but given my account status I could purchase it with $100,000 minimum as an institutional purchase. True? I didn’t try but maybe I will take them up on it when some stuff matures.
    This is how Schwab site works.
    You can search for TRAIX and it found nothing, usually, it means you can't buy it.
    Then you can try buying it. In the case of TRAIX you can't even pass the first screen.
    Sometimes, you can pass the first screen, but on the second screen, you will get a warning or narrative that tells you you can't and the site won't let you buy it.
    ===========
    Per Firstrade. In the past, I just opened an account in Welltrade because you could buy Ishares funds that were close or had a high min in other brokers. I also made sure I can add to these funds at the receiving broker.
    After I did it, I transferred these funds to my original brokerage IN KIND at no cost.
    Then I closed the account at WellsTrade and made sure the receiving company paid for these fees.